Damage to Livestock From Radioactive Fallout in Event of Nuclear War: A Report (1963)

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cc»lr0i^iiM o? i^^^ 003L 1o 1NM0I03 or ^vin.18 ^im cun^n^« Ine e8timatinß tunction8 ßiven in ^ppen6ix ^ can de u8e6 to calculate dne concentration ot vne ra6ionucli6e8 in milk trom cov8 tnati mißnt ßra2e on contaminate6 toliaße. Ut cour8e, at Une 6i8tance8 vnere tne tallout i8 neav^, unprotecte6 cattle voul6 de expo8e6 to letnal level8 ot ra6iation. ^l8o, at 8ome ot tne 8lißntlv lover level8, a nu8dan6man voul6 not de adle to take care ot animal8 tor 8ome time vitnout expo8inß nim8elt to more ra6iation tnan i8 toleradle. H>e calculate6 expo8ure 6o8e8 at 8everal location8 on tne tallout» palitern center»line are ßiven in Iadle XVIII. Ine expo8ure 6o8e8 vere calculat«6 d^ u8e ot a "tractionate6" ti88ion prcxluct 6eca^ curve. I^LI^ XVIII Lxpo8ure vo8e8 on ?allout ?attern 0enter»1.ine KD X t v^t ^ ?6) Kt) I(t 5 76) (r/nr at l nr) (mile8) (nour8) (roent^en8) lr/nr) (r/nr) 500 46 3.0? l,420 l03 l.04 5,000 59 3.93 l3,l00 79« l0.3 5,000 69 4.60 l2,500 660 l0.3 3,l50 95 6.30 7,l00 300 6.4 l,350 l40 9.33 2,640 84 2.7 500 200 l3.3 850 2l 0.95 50 330 22.0 68 l.2 0.088 5 460 30.7 5.7 0.084 0.0082 0.5 590 39.3 0.5 0.0065 0.00078 Hotie: t i8 dne "ettective" time ot tallout arrival; I (t) i8 line maximum 6o8e rate it all line tallouli vere 6epo8ite6 in8tantaneou8 l^ at t. 65

Ine I(l) value8 vere tir8t multiplie6 d^ l.33 to correct ior tne in8trument re8pon8e iactor ot 0.75 inclu6e6 in tne I(l) value8. Ine 8even»6a^ 6o8e va8 compute6 to inclu6e mucn oi tne earlv larße amount8 ot 6o8e. Lven it one a88ume6 a 2.5 per cent per 6a^ dioloßical recoverv aiter rour 6a^8, tne inteßrate6 6o8e to t -I- ? 6a^8 voul6 8till de vitnin 92.5 per cent ot tde ettective "driet" expo8ure 6o8e. ?or an l^2c>/2c> ot 550 roentßen8, more tdan dali tne cattle voul6 6ie vitdin adout 30 6a^8 at 6i8tance8 to adout 220 mile8 (on tne iallout»pattern center-line). Novever, tne expo8ure 6o8e 6ecrea8e8 quite rapi6l^ vitd 6i8tance 8o tdat at adout 26O mile8, vnere tne expo8ure 6o8e i8 le88 tdan adout 2O0 roentßen8, onlv adout l0 per cent ot tne cov8 voul6 decome 8ick in 30 6a^8. ^t a 6ovnvin6 6i8tance o1 22O mile8 trom tne a88ume6 6etona» tion, tnere voul6 apparentlv de no ra6iation 8ickne88 amonß tne cattle an6 tne du8dan6man coul6 take care ot tne cattle in tne u8ual manner at tde co8t ot an expo8ure 6o8e to nim8eli ot le88 tdan lOO roentßen8 (over an exten6e6 pericxl ot time) , a88uminß tdat ne 8pent adout 50 per cent oi ni8 time in duil6inß8 vitd a 8niel6inß iactor 01 2 or more. Idu8 it i8 po88idle tdat milk coul6 de odtaine6 vitdout 6ela^ at tne 6ovnvin6 6i8tance ot 330 mile8 (or nearer to ßroun6 2ero at location8 ott tne tallout»pattern center»line) vnere tne 8tan6ar6 inten8itv i8 e8timate6 to de 50 r/nr at l nr; vnere tne iallout arrive8 at adout 22 dour8 atter tne explo8ion, an6 vnere tde maxiinum od8erve6 6o8e rate at arrival time voul6 de adout l.2 r/nr. Ine8e con6ition8, ircm> tne mo6el computation8 , 8doul6 repre8ent tne upper limit ot ra6ioactive contamination in availadle milk 8upplie8. Ine area ior vnicn tne e8timate6 con6ition8 appl^, ot cour8e, i8 verv 8mall. Ine concentration ot tne availadle nucli6e8 in milk (a88uminß tne amount8 6e8ißnate6 d^ H^(^) or H^(^) are rea6il^ 8oludle in 8tomacd tlui68; an a88umption tdat ma^ de a8 mucn a8 an or6er oi maßnitu6e too nißd) ma^ de e8timate6 trom «milk - ^°i«c(" ^e -^" ^c/liter (l) 'm vnere 0^ i8 tne croppaße rate ot toli^e in 8q tt 01 8oil area/6a^; v^z i8 tne 6i8crimination iactor tor tne concentration in milk; X- i8 tne pn^8ical 6eca^ con8tant in ^^0/atom; V„ i8 tne milk prc>6uce6 in liter8/6a^; 66

xi i8 eivner rne pnv8ical 6ec2v con8tant or an empirical con8tant evaluate6 ircnn od8erve6 variation ot 0„^l^ vitn time atter expo8ure; an6 t i8 tne time atter 6etonation Lquation l can de 6irect1v applie6 to en6-ma88-cnain memder8 tnat ßrov in rapi6lv tio lO0 per cent ot tne cnain viel6. Olinervi8e Hf(^) require8 a6^8tment tor tne time at tne deßinninß ot tne uptake cvcle. Ine u8e ot üquation l i8 illu8trate6 onlv tor tne uptake ot I^^^ ircm1 milk tor cov8 ßra2inß on toraße crop8 at x » 330 mile8. It i8 a88ume6 tnat tne cov(8) con8ume 6O Kß ot ßreen toraße per 6av, vdicn i8 equivalent to adout l2 kß oi 6r^v toliaße per 6av. ^n6 8ince it va8 a88ume6 tdat v tor tne toraße crop va8 2O ß ot 6rv toliaße per 8q tt, 0^. i8 600 8q tt/6av. Ine value8 a88ume6 tor tne otner parameter8 are: 0i - 0.08 X^ - 2.7lxl0-^ ^0/at«n (8-6av nali-lite) V^ - l0 liter8 m X- - 0.l39 6av-^ (5-6av etiective dalt-lite) «^(l3l) - 2.0 X l0" atcm8/tt2 Ine ettective value ot Xi i8 a88ume6 to applv trcm 2ero time. It appear8 tnat dne od8erve6 tive 6av ettective nalt»lite i8 6ue to a comdina» tion ot a tir8t»or6er rate 8udlimation reaction ot icxline trom tne tallout particle8 an6 ot <ine ßra2inß dadit8 ot cov8 (tdev 6on't eat a 8innle area ot 600 8q tt eacn 6av). Ine 8udlimation proce88 8noul6 de occurrinß more rapi6lv vnile tne particle8 are tallinß tdroußd air tdan vnen tnev are on ioliaße or on tne ßroun6 (at x » 330 mile8 tne particle8 are in line air tor tne tir8t 22 dour8 atter tnev are torme6); tneretore tne a88umption tdat Xi applied dack to 2ero time 8doul6 ßive an upper»limit e8ti1nate 01 tne I^^^ remaininß on tde particle8 vnen tnev are inße8te6 dv tne animal. Ine comdination ot tne adove paramelier value8 ßive8, tor Lquation l, cmilk - 2.60xl07 e "'"^ ^c/liter (2) It tne icxline duil6-up in tne milk in tne tir8t tev 6av8 ot intake i8 neßlecte6, Lquation 2 ßive8 a concentration ot l.97xl0^ ^^C/lilier at tne en6 ot tne tir8t 6av'8 con8umption ot toraße (t - 2 6av8) . Ine tnvroi6 6o8e trom 6rinkinß tne milk trcm> tne cov8 at tne 8eleclie6 lcx:ation mav de e8liimate6 trom 6?

k-ik /t X o^ - l.60 X l5-2 "ik l l(a68 (3) vnere «. dl . /°«X xl°^^° ^-,-""-"1 ll-«-""""' "'-" 6i8inteßration8 (^) in vnicn v.k i8 tne 6o8e ad8orde6 d^ rne k^ orßan trcm dne i^-" ra6io- nucli6e. ?or tne tdvroi6: l!^^ - 0.228 Kev/6i8 tor m^ - 20 ß (a6ult8) L^ - 0.2ll «ev/6i8 tc>r m^ -2ß (intant8) ,8/- Xi - 0.l39 6a^"^ X- » 0.0866 6i8/at«n/6av .»i X^ - 0.00502 6a/ t^ - 0.3 H. - 9.6xl0^^ V atom8/6a^ (V in liter8 milk con8ume6 l 6a^) t - ^ 6a^8 (allov 2 6a^8 tor proce88inß) , an6 t » c?o (continuou8 con8umption). Uidn tne adove parameter8 value8, N.. ^) - l.l3xl0^^ V 6i8inteßration8 (in dne td^roi6) (5) 8o tn2t "ik - 206 V «H68 (20 ß tdvroi6 » a6ult) (6) 68

aN6 0^ - l9l0 V Ka68 (2 ß tnvroi6 » intant). (7) Ine adove calculation8 illu8trate a metno6 tor e8timatinß tne ettect8 ot expo8ure in term8 ot tallout propertie8, ot relative location8 in tne tallout area, an6 ot tne value8 ot tne parameter8 involve6 in tne on»ßoinß proce88e8. Utner computation8 u8inß Slißntlv 6itterent metno68 ßive an» Sver8 tnat are rea8onadlv clo8e. Variation8 in tne a88umption8 u8e6 account tor mo8t ot tne 6itterence8. Odviou8l^, it tne per cent retention ot tall» out on toliaße i8 a88ume6 to de tvo in8tea6 ot tne tour u8e6 adove, tnere vill de a corre8pon6inß variation in tne re8ult. 3imilarlv, 6itterinß a88umption8 tor tne nalt re6uction time ot ra6ioio6ine in milk, or tor tne perio6 oi expo8ure, lea6 to 6itterent an8ver8. Inere appear8 to de a concen8u8, novever, tnat it a 6airv ner6 8ur» vive8 tne ßamma ra6iation an6 can ßive milk, an6 it tne nu8dan6man can ten6 it vitnout exce88ive per8onal ri8k (e.ß., vnen tne 8tan6ar6 inten8itv i8 adout 50 r/nr at one nour), tne milk trom tne der6 vill not prcxiuce an io6ine»l3l 6o8e to tne a6ult numan tnvroi6 ßreat enoußn to preclu6e 6rink» inß tne milk. in an imme6iate emerßencv 8ituation. Ine 8maller veißnt ot tne intant tnvroi6 (e.ß. , 2 kß a8 c«npare6 vitn 20 or 25 kß) re8ult8 in an or6er ot maßnitu6e larßer 6o8e, an6 clearlv in6icate8 tnat vounß cnil6ren 8noul6 not u8e milk vden tne ra6ioio6ine concentration8 in tne milk are in tne ranZe ot tno8e calculate6 adove. 69