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CHAPTER 1 Jobs for High School Graduates AFTER DECADES OF WORLD SUPREMACY, the American economy has entered a period of apparently dramatic change. Media reports often portray a disturbing future in which high technol- ogy, foreign competition, new patterns of organiza- tion, and export of jobs will change beyond recogni- tion the way Americans work, produce, and earn. Some observers prophesy a bifurcated America, in which only the most technologically sophisticated and those willing to perform repetitive, menial tasks will find ready employment.1 Others foresee much more egalitarian workplaces, where workers will exercise far greater control over the way they work and the quality of the goods and services they produce. What do these possible changes mean to the career prospects of young people without advanced education? Can high school graduates realistically hope to find worthwhile work and adequate material re- turns in the decades to come? Does the new age mean the end of the opportunity and upward mobility that have been synonymous with work in America? Or does it mean that young people will have to clear new hurdles on their way to traditional goals? Over a working lifetime, most individuals work for several employers— Jobs Today 10 on the average—and in at least as many different jobs.2 For young people recently out of high school, however, opportunities tend to cluster in a narrow range. While the military services are the single largest employers of young Americans, many find their first "real" job with a small concern.3 This might be a dynamic new company whose fast growth

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HIGH SCHOOLS AND THE CHANGING WORKPLACE TABLE 1 Employed Persons Ages 16 to 24 Not Enrolled in School, by Industry and Class of Worker Industry/Class October 1979 October 1982 High School Graduates Non-High School High School Graduates Graduates Non-High School Graduates Total (thousands) 12,636 2,916 11,648 2,286 Percent 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture 3.0 5.6 3.8 9.1 Nonagriculture 97.0 94.4 96.2 90.9 Wage and salary 94.3 91.3 93.5 88.0 Mining 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.5 Construction 7.6 12.8 6.1 10.5 Manufacturing 22.8 30.8 16.3 23.8 Transportation and public utilities 5.6 3.9 4.8 3.3 Trade, wholesale and retail 24.1 23.8 30.3 27.5 Finance, insurance, and real estate 7.7 1.8 7.6 2.0 Other services 21.7 14.6 23.6 16.4 Public administration 3.2 0.7 2.8 1.0 Private households 0.6 1.9 1.0 2.0 Self-employed 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.8 Unpaid family 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 Source: Table compiled from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2192, Students, Graduates, andDropouts, October 1980-1982. Washing- ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, December 1983. offers an excellent opportunity for advancement or a new firm that will fail and die. More likely, however, it is a stable firm with few positions at higher levels, thus offering a young worker slight hope of advancement. Well over half of the young high school graduates in the civilian labor force find work in wholesale or retail trades or the service sector.4 This contrasts with the experience of those lacking high school diplomas, who hold a slightly higher proportion of the jobs in manufacturing industries and construction. From the very outset, therefore, a high school diploma makes a difference. (See Table 1.)

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JOBS FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES TABLE 2 Employed Persons Ages 16 to 24 Not Enrolled in School, by Occupation Industry/Class October 1979 October 1982 High School Graduates Non-High School High School Graduates Graduates Non-High School Graduates Total (thousands) 12,636 2,916 11,648 2,286 Percent 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Professional and technical 10.9 1.4 10.3 1.5 Managers and admin- istrators 5.4 1.8 6.4 2.2 Sales 6.3 1.8 6.4 3.0 Clerical 25.9 7.8 23.8 9.1 Crafts and kindred workers 13.4 14.9 11.3 15.0 Operators except trans- portation 13.1 26.9 10.5 20.7 Transportation equip- ment operators 3.7 5.3 3.1 3.7 Nonfarm laborers 7.3 16.3 7.9 15.0 Total service workers 11.8 19.8 17.4 22.9 Total farm workers 2.0 4.2 2.9 7.0 Source: Table compiled from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 2192, Students, Graduates, andDropouts, October 1980-1982. Washing- ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, December 1983. New graduates rarely get the most desirable jobs. About half of the employed 16- to 24-year-olds are service workers, clerks, or nonfarm laborers; only about 5 percent are managers or administrators. (See Table 2.) They start at the bottom, in entry-level positions that require few specialized skills and often become "dead ends," lacking challenge, intrinsic interest, or opportunities for advancement. However, few peo- ple stay in their first job very long. As high school graduates mature, they move into other occupations and other, often larger, organizations. Before long, their occupations and sources of employment mirror those of the population as a whole. Most grow into more responsible positions offering brighter futures. First Jobs

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HIGH SCHOOLS AND THE CHANGING WORKPLACE The first job, therefore, does not necessarily set the direction of a career. It does, however, allow a career to begin. It is a doorway, not a highway. It permits people new to the workplace to master its habits and customs and to demonstrate the makings of a desirable worker. Even jobs without futures, viewed in this light, serve the vital purpose of changing untried young people into proven employees who can bring to subsequent employers the inestimable benefits of work experience. Unemployment Young people who fail to get or hold a first.job, or first few jobs, cannot obtain the experience needed for better jobs. This is the tragedy of teenage unemployment: someone who cannot find work or keep it cannot start an adult career. New workers have special kinds of learning to do and, to do it, they need jobs that do not require previous experience. Nevertheless, while many unskilled teenagers have great difficulty finding jobs, some small employers report persistent difficulty in locating certain kinds of skilled, but noncollege-educated, workers.5 The panel believes, therefore, that improving the quality of high school graduates—sending better equipped young people out into the job market—will help more of them to overcome the difficulties of finding the crucial early jobs. A well-prepared individual constitutes a far better prospect for an employer. To say this is not to state that schools can solve the problems of youth unemployment themselves. Schools alone cannot cure the ills of the national economy; however, a well-educated work force is important to the cure. Jobs Tomorrow Even in a period of apparently rapid and unpredictable dislocation, continuity remains a dominant feature of American working life. Changes in employment patterns and workplaces occur constantly, but generally by gradual evolution rather than drastic upheaval. This is not to deny that particular individuals, companies, or even whole industries will experience unpleasant shocks. It is merely to assert that the great majority of workers 10 to 15 years from now will earn their livings in a job market and a working environment more like today's than unlike it. The automobile, for example, did not replace the horse overnight. Buggymakers gave way to firms manufacturing automobile bodies; blacksmiths turned their metal-working skills to automobile parts. Looking back over decades, one sees the contours of titanic industrial and occupational change, but, for those involved, most years brought some-

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Today, with the age of the small computer upon us, hundreds of thousands of Americans still work— and for the foreseeable future will continue to work- as pencil -and -paper bookkeepers.

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HIGH SCHOOLS AND THE CHANGING WORKPLACE thing more in the nature of challenging novelties. Today, with the age of the small computer upon us, hundreds of thousands of Americans still work—and for the foreseeable future will continue to work—as pencil- and-paper bookkeepers.6 Change, nonetheless, will be the worker's constant companion and continuing changes, however small, will compound with each passing year. Today's 18-year-olds face nearly half a century of work until retire- ment, and each year's novelties, although manageable at the time, will make the workplace less like it was when they left school. Today's young graduates, then, should expect many changes that will affect their ability to succeed in the work force. These will include demographic and structural changes, the effects of foreign competition, the requirements of new modes of organization, and the impacts of new technologies. Demographic and Structural Changes The very composition of Amer- ica's working population will change. As the average age of the popula- tion rises, there will be fewer youths to fill entry-level positions. More women and minority-group members will participate in the labor force.7 Continuing immigration also will alter the composition of the labor force. These trends will certainly affect the terms of competition for jobs among traditional population sectors, but they will not affect what employers look for in new employees. They may alter the scenery of one's career, but not the script. Structural changes in the economy also will alter the employment landscape. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, over the next decade manufacturing industries are expected to continue to lose ground in proportion to some faster growing sectors, notably services, although the absolute number of jobs in manufacturing industries will increase. Government's share of employment will remain fairly stable.8 High-technology industries will grow rapidly, but will not become major sources of employment because they start from so small a base.9 For example, while jobs for computer service technicians are projected to double by 1995, their proportion of total employment is barely measurable—less than one percent. (See Table 3.) The International Economy Important trends in international trade will affect how some firms, particularly in the industrial sector, do business and thus may alter the responsibilities and opportunities of employees. Foreign competition and some movement of production facil-

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JOBS FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES TABLE 3 Twenty Fastest Growing Occupations, 1982-1995 Occupation Percent Change Employment Change (thousands) Percent of Total Job Growth Computer service technicians 97 53 0.21 Legal assistants 94 43 0.17 Computer systems analysts 86 217 0.85 Computer programmers 77 205 0.80 Computer operators 76 160 0.62 Office machine repairers 72 40 0.16 Physical therapy assistants 68 26 0.09 Electrical engineers 65 209 0.82 Civil engineering technicians 64 23 0.09 Peripheral electronic data- processing equipment operators 64 31 0.12 Insurance clerks, medical 62 53 0.21 Electrical and electronics technicians 61 222 0.87 Occupational therapists 60 15 0.06 Surveyor helpers 59 23 0.09 Credit clerks, banking and insurance 64 27 0.11 Physical therapists 64 25 0.10 Employment interviewers 63 30 0.12 Mechanical engineers 52 109 0.43 Mechanical engineering technicians 52 25 0.10 Compression and injection mold machine operators, plastics 50 47 0.19 Note: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more. Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections. Source: Table compiled from George T. Silvestri et al., "Occupational Employment Projections Through 1995," Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 106, No. 11, November 1983, Table 3, p. 46. ities to overseas locations will certainly decrease employment in some industries. But foreign trade, by increasing demand for U.S. products and services, will have the opposite effect in other industries. Legal services, finance, insurance, real estate, and new construction, for ex- ample, will be among the net gainers.10 In most industries, the need to compete effectively with foreign com- merce will mean increased attention to quality and costs of production and, therefore, increased need for an ever more competent labor force.11

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HIGH SCHOOLS AND THE CHANGING WORKPLACE Changing Employer-Employee Relations Especially in larger firms, concern with international competition has helped already to spark a trend toward less centralized authority and decisionmaking. As employ- ers strive to increase quality and cut costs, they are taking a new look at the talent and expertise in the shop, the office, and the assembly line— resources that previously often went to waste in highly centralized, hierarchical organizations. The example of overseas competitors has shown the value of asking for advice on improvements from the people who are closest to the work. Some firms have established quality circles, smaller, more informal work groups, quality-of-life committees, and various other forms of labor-management cooperation. These innovations potentially give em- ployees at all organizational levels new roles in decisionmaking and control over work processes, performance standards, and evaluation of results. Employees of many large industrial corporations, therefore, may find themselves working in smaller units and participating more in decisionmaking, just as their counterparts in small businesses have done. This situation implies new opportunities and new responsibilities. Greater decisionmaking at lower levels affords more scope for workers' talents and initiative and indicates greater trust, confidence, and in- terdependence between workers and management. It also requires that workers be able to formulate and express their views with clarity and precision. Under this system, supervisors function as facilitators and coordinators in addition to overseeing, and workers and their unions take part in some decisions formerly reserved for management. Workers, therefore, find themselves in the often unaccustomed position of partici- pating in committees that deal with problems transcending their usual responsibilities. In such organizations, responsibilities in some jobs will broaden, with fewer narrow specialties among operators, technicians, and mechanical and office workers. This probably will permit more employees with the appropriate skills and initiative to progress from entry-level to operative jobs and beyond.12 New Technology Perhaps the most problematic—and feared—changes will flow from new technology and increased automation. Technological change will pervade many workplaces in the 1980's and beyond, as it has in the past. Even some small employers in unchanging businesses will acquire computers, for example. All workers, therefore, no matter what their occupation or position, will have to learn to do some new things, or will have to learn to do some old things in new ways.

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JOBS FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES The pace of change affecting entry-level jobs probably will not differ much from that of the past but, as graduates mature and move out of entry-level jobs, the effects of change may become more pronounced. Although difficult to predict with precision, several general develop- ments seem clear. Computer applications and automation will increase productivity and quality. Intensified mechanization, instrumentation, and computerization will assist managers and employees in making more rapid and accurate decisions about work functions; new transmis- sion technology, coupled with greater availability of timely data, will permit more rapid and exact communication within and among organi- zations. All of these imply a continuous need to understand and master constant technical change. How Jobs Will Change What does all of this mean to the young, would- be worker planning to end his or her education with a high school diploma? Can the individual without advanced education compete in the high-technology workplace? Or will such individuals find themselves tomorrow's buggy-whipmakers? Of all of the issues surrounding the future of work, the consequences of new technology on what workers actually will do is probably the most controversial—and the least pre- dictable. People throughout our society intuitively sense that new technologies will alter how they work in the future. Many assume that the growth of computer technology implies a need for drastically higher skills in com- puter science and programming. Tens of millions of Americans, however, spend their lives today in intimate dependence on automobiles, with only the most rudimentary understanding of how they work. Just as the automobile revolution did not make us a nation of automotive engineers or automotive mechanics, the computer revolution need not transform us into computer programmers and technicians. The computer may, how- ever, pervade our society as widely and as decisively as the automobile did, and bring about changes just as profound. From the worker's standpoint, the nature of many jobs will change in the coming years, although their titles may remain the same. Obviously, the degree of change will vary from job to job and industry to industry, sometimes drastically, sometimes slightly. New Versus Different Many people assume that advanced technology requires higher skills; in reality, it often requires different, and some- times lesser, skills. Just as the word processor's keyboard resembles the typewriter's, so the skills needed to operate both of them overlap; there is

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10 HIGH SCHOOLS AND THE CHANGING WORKPLACE an enduring need for competence in grammar, punctuation, and vocabulary. Yet, the skills differ, although not so greatly that a typist cannot become a word-processing operator fairly easily. In the same fashion, a stock clerk who once recorded inventory on paper forms may now keyboard the same information into the employer's computer or enter it by passing a special sensor over the bar codes printed on the goods. In some occupations, advanced technology will reduce the demands for skills from workers. New diagnostic tools used in the health services, for example, are vastly more sophisticated than their predecessors and are increasing the effectiveness of diagnosis, laboratory testing, and ther- apy. The medical technician will need only the ability to follow instruc- tions rather than the exacting skills involved in performing the same chemical analyses by hand and sensory perception. Complicated me- chanical and electronic equipment, including computers and auto- mobiles, often incorporates features that permit automatic diagnosis of its own malfunctions, indicating which components or circuits need to be replaced. Repairing this equipment, therefore, no longer requires the experi- ence and skill acquired over years. The shift from mechanical repair to computer repair requires new knowledge, but the simplicity of product design and the power of new technology to assist in diagnosis may make computer repair less demanding than traditional mechanical repair. Situations requiring decidedly higher skills also will arise as some new technologies generate new industries. Examples may include robot- ics, biotechnology, and some new systems being developed by the milita- ry services. In short, the effects of today's and tomorrow's new technologies prom- ise to be as pervasive and unpredictable as some of yesterday's technolog- ical revolutions: automobiles, electricity, mass production, and the tele- phone. Some occupations will decline and others will flourish. But it is clear that the skills required of workers will change over their working lifetimes. The Future These trends have important implications for high school graduates who Job Market want to start and maintain successful lifelong careers. Ambitious, well- prepared young people will still find opportunities in the American economy if they know where to look for them. As the economy shifts away from some of its traditional bases, this knowledge will be ever more vital. The U.S. economy is expected to generate more than 25 million addi-

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JOBS FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES 11 tional jobs between 1982 and 1995.13 By comparison, it added some 20 million jobs between 1969 and 1982.u Americans work in hundreds of occupations; for example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the U.S. Department of Labor tracks 1,700 different job categories but, the Bureau estimates, only 40 of these together will account for more than half of the expected employment growth. (See Table 4). Obviously, there- fore, different job types will grow at very different rates. BLS estimates that some will nearly double their numbers in only 13 years, while others will grow much more slowly. Some will decline. The growth of many jobs—such as custodians and cashiers—reflects their large starting base. These job categories should be interpreted cautiously; for example, the title "building custodian" reflects a broad spectrum of responsibilities, from managing a maintenance crew for a large building to having sole charge. These tables do not state where the jobs will be in 1995. The tables are projections based on a host of assumptions about where the growth in number and proportion of jobs is likely. The exact ordering of items on such lists must be viewed as an estimate rather than a fact, as a projec- tion, not a prediction. However, the general patterns represent the judgment of experienced observers of labor trends and conform to projec- tions relying on different models of the economy. The projections do affirm that the American economy will continue to generate an astonishing number of diverse occupations, many of which will be quite familiar even if the ways they are done will change. The projections also show relatively few young people working in new occupations. Rather, the bulk of new opportunities will exist in occupa- tions that are very familiar to us already. Well-prepared high school graduates, therefore, can realistically hope to compete for the jobs of the future. They can expect, like their predecessors, to find opportunities in all kinds of enterprises. To be sure, many large organizations, public and private, have experienced only modestly rising, static, or even falling employment levels in recent years as they introduced additional auto- mated equipment and restructured jobs around it. Hiring continues, however, to replace employees who leave, retire, die, or are promoted. Large organizations still present important employment opportunities for many graduates. Opportunities in Small Firms A large proportion of new openings, however, occurs in small firms, which present opportunities to high

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TABLE 4 Forty Occupations Will Account for About Half of All New Jobs Generated, 1982-1995 Occupation Employment Change (thousands) Percent Change Percent of Total Job Growth All occupations 25,600 25 100.0 Building custodians 780 28 3.0 Cashiers 740 47 2.9 Secretaries 720 30 2.8 General clerks, office 700 30 2.7 Sales clerks 690 24 2.7 Nurses, registered 640 49 2.7 Waiters and waitresses 560 34 2.2 Teachers, kindergarten and elementary 510 37 2.0 Truck drivers 430 27 1.7 Nursing aides and orderlies 420 35 1.7 Sales representatives, technical 390 29 1.5 Accountants and auditors 340 40 1.3 Automotive mechanics 320 38 1.3 Supervisors of blue-collar workers 320 27 1.2 Kitchen helpers 300 36 1.2 Guards and doorkeepers 300 47 1.2 Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants 300 37 1.2 Managers, store 290 30 1.1 Carpenters 250 29 1.0 Electrical and electronic technicians 220 61 0.9 Licensed practical nurses 220 37 0.9 Computer systems analysts 220 85 0.8 Electrical engineers 210 65 0.8 Computer programmers 210 77 0.8 Maintenance repairers, general utility 190 28 0.8 Helpers, trades 190 31 0.7 Receptionists 190 49 0.7 Electricians 170 32 0.7 Physicians 160 34 0.7 Clerical supervisors 160 35 0.6 Computer operators 160 76 0.6 Sales representatives, nontechnical 160 27 0.6 Lawyers 160 34 0.6 Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse 160 19 0.6 Typists 160 16 0.6 Delivery and route workers 150 19 0.6 Bookkeepers, hand 150 16 0.6 Cooks, restaurants 150 42 0.6 Bank tellers 140 30 0.6 Cooks, short order, specialty, and fast food 140 32 0.6 Note: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more. Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections. Source: Table compiled from George T. Silvestri et al., "Occupational Employment Projections Through 1995," Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 106, No. 11, November 1983, Table 2, p. 45.

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JOBS FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES 13 school graduates who can meet their special needs. Small size often creates quite a different working environment from that of a large organization. There is usually less hierarchy and less specialization. A clerical worker in a one- or two-person office might file, handle billing, type letters, answer the telephone, greet visitors, and offer advice in an office crisis; a counterpart in a giant corporation might handle one or two procedures as one member of a large department. Size also often limits severely the resources available for helping employees to learn skills. Where a large corporation or agency may maintain an elaborate training program—perhaps even a formal school—a small enterprise might be hard-pressed to release an experi- enced employee to train a newcomer. Large corporations frequently prefer to hire bright, well-educated nonspecialists and teach them their own way of processing data, mixing chemicals, maintaining equipment, and the like. A small employer, however, often needs an employee who already possesses specific job skills. Skills obtained in vocational courses or previous work experience might be crucial, therefore, to getting a good job with a small employer; such skills often matter less to large employ- ers who intend to put a new worker through a training program anyway. Because small employers constitute so significant a number of those who hire young workers, vocational skills, in addition to a sound education in the core competencies, certainly increase employability. An often overlooked opportunity for high school graduates is not to work Self-Employ merit for someone else, but rather to earn a living through self-employment. At least 8 percent of working Americans earn their main livings as their own employers; over 17 million people do some kind of self-employed work, often in addition to working for another employer.1546 This career path offers certain high school graduates the possibility of doing work they enjoy while achieving social and economic rewards far greater than would be possible as employees. As there are no organizational ranks to rise through, lack of advanced credentials need not bar the way. Self-employment, however, is not generally a beginner's option. It usually follows work experience as an employee. The median age at which people start working for themselves is the early 30's—old enough for the worker to have learned a business, accumulated some capital, and spotted a likely niche, but young enough not to be set into another career track.17

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14 HIGH SCHOOLS AND THE CHANGING WORKPLACE Jobs for a Lifetime: Careers Before workers have the confidence, contacts, and wherewithal to strike out on their own, before they have the experience and expertise to assume a responsible post with an employer, in other words, before they can hope to arrive at a position that satisfies the urge for upward mobility, they generally will have passed through a number of jobs and employers. Only about one American worker in a hundred is with the initial employer 10 years later.18 Indeed, one in five American workers leaves his or her occupation every year, the young more often than average, the mature less frequently.19 A job, in other words, is not a career. A career is a series of jobs, each often involving new responsibilities, new knowledge, and new skills. The ability to learn a new job is vital both to the employer—who cannot employ a person unable to master the requisite skills—and to the employee—who cannot expect to hold a job without that mastery. The ability to learn, therefore, is vital to every worker throughout an entire working lifetime. Workers change jobs for many reasons. Young workers, for example, are explorers searching the economy for an occupation to their liking and a situation that meets their needs. Workers generally do not advance up a single job ladder but zig-zag from firm to firm as conditions change or opportunities for bettering themselves open up. First jobs often offer low pay and scant advancement—and may even discourage some new workers about their chances of finding better employment. But even jobs that do not offer opportunities for advance- ment provide the initial experience that every young worker needs; so, the quality of early jobs is less important to career prospects than that of later jobs. This may be the single most important fact that young people need to understand about the job market. Careers are built on performance over a number of years and, ideally, on a number of increasingly desirable jobs. The early ones need not either define or limit the ultimate character of a career. What defines and limits a career is the individual's ability to learn throughout life. Technology will change, businesses will change, the content of a given job will change, and one's employer will change. What will never change is the need to adapt to new opportunities. References Thomas R. Donahue et al., "The Future of Work," A Report by the AFL-CIO Commit- tee on the Evolution of Work, August 1983; also, Bob Kuttner, "The Declining Middle," Atlantic Monthly, July 1983, pp. 60-72. For an opposing view, see Ronald Kent Shelp, "A Service Economy," The Journal of the Institute for Socioeconomic Studies, Autumn 1983.

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JOBS FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES 15 2 Robert Hall. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, Vol. 72, No. 4, September 1982, pp. 716-724. 3 Bradley R. Schiller. "'Corporate Kidnap' of Small Business Employees," The Public Interest, July 1982; also, U.S. Small Business Administration, The State of Small Business: A Report of the President, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, March 1984, especially Chapter IV. 4 "Service-producing industries—broadly defined as transportation, communications, public utilities, trade, finance, insurance, real estate, other services, and government—are projected to account for almost 75 percent of all new jobs between 1982 and 1995." See page 24 and Table 1, page 25, for definition of service-producing and goods-producing industries in Valerie A. Personick, "The Job Outlook Through 1995: Industry Output and Employment Projections," Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 106, No. 11, November 1983, pp. 24-36. 5 NFIB Employment Report for Small Business. San Mateo, California: National Feder- ation of Independent Business, May 1977, and unpublished tabulations, November 1981; also, NFIB Quarterly Economic Report for Small Business, quarterly issues. 6 George T. Silvestri et al. "Occupational Employment Projections Through 1995," Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 106, No. 11, November 1983, p. 39. 7 Howard N. Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschetter. "The 1995 Labor Force: A Second Look," Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 106, No. 11, November 1983, p. 10. 8 Personick, op. cit. 9 Richard W. Riche et al. "High Technology Today and Tomorrow: A Small Slice of the EmploymentPie," Monthly Labor Review,Vol. 106, No. 11, November 1983, pp. 50-58. 10 Personick, op. cit. 11 Robert B. Reich. "Beyond Free Trade," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 61, No. 4, Spring 1983, p. 782. 12 See, for example, Henry M. Levin, "Education and Organizational Democracy," in International Yearbook of Organizational Democracy, edited by C. Crouch and F. Heller, London: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1983, Vol. I, Chapter 11; also, Joel I. Susman, Autonomy at Work: A Sociotechnical Analysis of Participative Management, New York: Praeger Pubs., 1976; also, Ralph Barra, Putting Quality Circles to Work: A Practical Strategy for Boosting Productivity and Profits, New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1983. 13 Personick, op. cit., Table 1, p. 25. 14 Ibid., Table 2, p. 26. 16 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-60, No. 132. Money Income of Households, Families, and Persons in the United States: 1980. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 16 U.S. Internal Revenue Service. Statistics of Income, Sole Proprietorships, various editions. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 17 Arnold C. Cooper and William C. Dunkelberg. "A New Look at Business Entry: Experiences of 1,805 Entrepreneurs." Mimeographed paper, 1981. 18 Schiller, op. cit. 19 Anne Kahl. "Characteristics of Job Entrants in 1980-81," Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 1983.

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