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INTRODUCTION Iclentification of Economic and Societal Impacts of Water Shortages WILBUR L. MElER, IR. Purdue University Water-supply planning and design technology has as its basis the assurance of the adequacy of the source of supply and the distribution system in meeting customers' water requirements. Operating experience of water- supply systems indicates that these systems at times fail to provide the water demanded by their customers and, ~us, subject them to water shortages. A water shortage in this sense has been defined as occurring at any time a water purveyor chooses, or is forced into, a position in which he cannot supply all the water demanded in the system (Young et al., 1972~. No water-supply system is ever totally free from the possibility of experiencing water shortages. Water is vital for plant and animal life and is a necessary part of many industrial processes and our present stan- dard of living in the United States. Water is such an integral part of modern society that its availability is virtually assumed by the consumer in whatever quantities he may desire. Drought is one of the common natural disasters to which man is subjected (White and Haas, 85 1975). Reduction in available water results in effects ranging from inconvenience to serious economic loss. Although irregular, periodic shortages are possible in every water supply system, there is little quantitative or even qualitative information available concerning the ef- fects of water shortages of varying magnitude and dura- tion on water users. In most cases, both the water utilities and users are so relieved when water shortages pass that they try immediately to forget actions taken and losses incurred rather than to document them. Climatic change producing a reduction in water avail- able in a particular region can result in periodic or con- tinuously occurring periods in which water available for use is not sufficient to meet water requirements. Periodic or continuously occurring water deficits certainly will result in different responses by different water users. However, in this paper, primary attention is addressed to effects of periodic water deficits, as this is the only type of water shortage on which any information is currently available. People are adaptable and alter their actions in response to environmental conditions. Some shortages can be tol-

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86 crated and overcome by using simple conservation mea- sures. However, as the magnitude of the shortage in- creases or the duration lengthens, losses and deleterious effects from the shortages increase. This paper seeks to outline and describe the effects of water shortages upon the various users. Data were drawn from newspaper articles, private communications, research reports, and monographs. Additional in-depth research is needed to develop the methodology necessary for water-systems planners, designers, and managers to be able to evaluate the importance of potential shortages on designs and operating plans. TYPES OF WATER SHORTAGES Water shortages occur with varying frequency, duration, and severity. In the study of which this paper is a part, attention is being focused on the impact of possible future climatic changes on water availability and subsequent use. Lofting and Davis (see Chapter 3) provide insight into methodologies for predicting water requirements. Reductions in water availability resulting from climatic change can be expected to be gradual, resulting in a steady decrease in water available for use. This compara- tively long-term reduction in water availability undoubt- edly would result in changes in the water-use characteris- tics in a region. Depending on the magnitude, frequency, and duration of shortages that occur, certain permanent changes in the water-use patterns can be expected to occur. Persons may move away from the region. Water- reuse systems may be installed in industries. Additional diversion works, wells, aqueducts, and storage reservoirs may be constructed. Residential-use patterns may be al- tered by permanently adopting conservation measures. Water distribution systems almost always are subject to He probability of a water shortage occurring. Water shortages can be produced by a variety of causes. Some of these are as follows: 1. Deficits in raw water supply. 2. Inadequate distribution systems. 3. Improper operating policies of management agencies. 4. Growth in demand. 5. Improper pricing of water. 6. Catastrophic damage to facilities. The primary concern in this paper is with identifying possible economic and societal impacts resulting from reductions in raw water supply caused by climatic varia- tion. Droughts and water shortages often have been expe- rienced through variation in climatic conditions in a por- tion of the country for specific periods of time. However, no clearly defined evidence of long-term climatic change has been identified at this time. Thus, this paper will focus on identifying effects and problems illuminated as a part of water shortages that have occurred in the past. WILBUR L. MEIER, JR. ACTIONS TAKEN DURING SHORTAGES Reductions in water availability that generate water shortages result in actions being taken by the utility management to reduce water use. Immediate measures as outlined in this section are ordered to bring about short- run reduction in water use. Frequently, longer-term ac- tions are begun, including construction of reservoirs and aqueducts, increasing water rates, or changing operating policies. An idealized description ofthis process is shown in Figure 5.1, as described by the Institute for Water Resources (Young et al., 19721. Experience with water-shortage situations in the past indicates that few utilities have concrete plans available for dealing with water shortages as they develop. This failure to have adequate operating plans available is often made worse by the failure of the management of the city or utility to act decisively before a full-scale shortage is in existence. Case studies describing actions of water utility management in the past are contained in a subsequent section of this paper. There is a natural tendency for managers of agencies to delay action in an effort to minimize the impact and inconvenience upon consumers. Some agencies have proposed specific plans for dealing with water shortages (Water Resources Engineers, Inc., 19751. D E M AN D LEV EL ~ ~ PR I CE L COST Of WATER I I ~ | DEMAND (gpC SUPPLY (Q) AS GOVERNED BY THE WATER MANAGERS DECISIONS . Q OCR for page 85
Identification of Economic and Societal Impacts of Water Shortages Various immediate actions can be taken in the event of a water shortage. Often because of the delay in taking early action, measures of the type listed below must be taken in rather rapid succession. The purpose of each of these measures is to reduce water demand. A graphical description of demand reduction possibilities drawn from the report of Water Resources Engineers, Inc. (1975) is shown in Figure 5.2. The possible numbered actions are as follows: 1. Reduction of water use by voluntary conservation. 2. Restriction on outside use of water (sprinkling, etc.~. 3. Mandatory reduction in water available to industrial and commercial establishments. 4. Complete shutdown of industrial and commercial usage. 5. Severe restrictions or cutoff of residential users. Customers of water utilities have been known to accept drastic reductions in water available to them if they have adequate explanation of the reasons for the crisis and are convinced that every possible action to alleviate the crisis is being undertaken. In the next section, examples of the types of consumers and the effects of water shortages on them are presented. TYPE S OF CONS UMERS Water users may be classified in a variety of ways. However, for the purpose of this paper, major users will be considered subdivided into the following categories: (1) residential; (2) industrial; (3) commercial; (4) other (municipal, governmental). Water curtailments are gen- erally distributed among the various water users un- evenly. Indication of the effects of these curtailments are described in the following sections. I M PACTS O F S H O RTAG E S Water shortages affect classes of users in different ways. Furthermore, effects of water shortages can be categorized as economic (monetary losses) or social (hu- man welfare). In this section, economic and social effects of water shortages on classes of consumers will be pre- sented and discussed. ECONOMIC EFFECTS The monetary losses resulting from water shortages can be classified as follows: 1. Residential: Monetary losses are experienced in the form of horticultural damage to lawns and shrubs. Costs are also incurred because of failure of plumbing and increased costs of water (e.g., purchase of bottled water). 2. Industrial: Losses are felt because of reduced value 87 D O M E STI C A C, ~ SPRINK- | LING ORDER OF CUTBACK INDUSTRI AL AND CO M M ERCI AL (I) ~ . 1 _ N\N wale _ VOLUNTARY MANDATORY phi [11111111 \\~ /// FIGURE 5.2 Demand contraction. CONSER VATION added by manufacture plus reduction in payroll due to employee layoffs. 3. Commercial: Tourism (motels, hotels) is affected and water-oriented firms (car washes and laundries) sometimes fail. 4. Other: Water utilities often lose revenue and expe- rience increased cost because of purchase of trucked water or construction of emergency facilities. Recrea- tional facilities (pools, etc.) may be closed, and govern- mental productivity may be affected. A graphical description of the interconnection between the users in a water shortage situation drawn from Young et al. (1972) is given in Figure 5.3. SOCIAL EFFECTS Social effects of water shortages may be broadly con- sidered as the impact of the shortages on human welfare. There is little information on which to draw in this area. Reductions in water availability obviously affect the lives of individuals living in the area in many pervasive ways. Analysis of the social impact of water supply reductions

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88 requires that one develop a model of the social system. Other investigators (Water Resources Engineers, Inc., 1975) have enumerated Me elements of the social system as the governmental institution, commerce and industry, family, education, religion, community, culture and art, leisure and recreation, health and safety, and housing. Development of a model of the social system requires identification of the groups and institutions being differ- entially affected. It is important to identify We dynamic interrelationships existing between these institutions and groups. For example, reduction in water available to recreational facilities (golf courses, pools) impacts the family and industry supplying leisure equipment arid supplies. Efforts to develop computer simulations of so- cial systems have not yet reached We stage of providing We capability necessary to conduct quantitative analyses. This remains a fruitful area for research. In order to make realist/c social impact predictions, the measures of poten- tial deficits must be coupled with scenarios of their im- pact on society. Although quite important, this must now be qualitative. Social impacts include many aesthetic and intangible considerations. Changes in taste and odor are experi- enced when waters of different quality are introduced into We system. Public concern and indication may be aroused when alternate sources of supply are considered to be "polluted." Examples of these instances will be given in We following section. WILBUR L. MEIER, JR. REGIONAL BOUNDARY rip l ~ OTHER ~ n n I ~ DROUGHT ~ , WATER UTILITY ~ ~ - t FIXED PAYMENTS TO V!SSISTANCEJ l GOVERNMENT \\ r I \~IDE INTERESTSJ l l \\\ ~ INDUSTRIAL {CONSUMERS ~1 / COST OF \ REVENUE \ SALES / PAYROLL l SU P Pa ~ L O S S ~ ~ LO S S / LO S S E S l , ~ _ ~-1 ~ l4~nS~Y~~ COMMERCIAL ~~ _ _ SECTO _ __,/ _ __~/ _ _ RESIDENTIAL/DOMESTIC NON-REPLENISHE~ TOSS OF SALES TOW I SECTOR ( EXTERNAL CONSUMERS ) IMPORTED GOODS J FIGURE 5.3 Water shortage loss balance. EXAMINATION OF CASE STUDIES Several cities have experienced damaging water shortages in recent years and furnish potential labora- tories for research. Some of these are York, Pennsylvania (Young et al., 1972~; Braintree, Fitchburg, and Pittsfield, Massachusetts (Russell et al., 1970~; Dallas, Texas (Bold- ing, 1975~; Trenton, New Jersey (The Evening Times, 1975~; the Delaware River Basin (Cyphers, 1976; Hoger- ty, 1970~; and the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area (Water Resources Engineers, Inc., 1975~. In this paper, the Dallas, York, Delaware, and Trenton experiences are summarized. The Dallas drought experience illustrates citizen responses to shortages and water-quality varia- tions Mat occur when alternate supplies are used. The description of the drought experience in York provides actual data defining economic losses. In the Delaware situation, legal and institutional problems occurring be- tween sates during water shortages are discussed. Prob- lems occurring in Trenton illustrate the importance of the water-utility management in having contingency plans for water-supply emergencies. The report describing effects of deficits in the Washington, D.C., area attempts in a pioneering way to identify social effects of various levels of water deficit. It was not possible to draw substantive conclusions from this report regarding social effects of deficits. Thus, this information is not summarized in these case studies.

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Identification of Economic and Societal Impacts of Water Shortages DALLAS, TEXAS The Dallas Public Utilities during the drought of the 1950's in Texas found themselves with more mud than water in Lake Dallas. Immediate plans were made to seek alternative sources of water. Two emergency sources of consequence were available. These were the West Fork of the Trinity River, a stream carrying municipal return flows and known for its pollution load, and the Red River, which separates Texas and Oklahoma and is of poor inorganic quality. Red River water can have up to 3000 mg/liter of sodium chloride during low flow periods and several hundred mg/liter of sodium chloride during high flow periods. The utility favored pretreatment of West Fork Trinity water in lagoons followed by complete treatment result- ing in both potable and palatable water. To make use of Red River water, a pumping plant and diversion facility would have to be constructed to pump water over a ridge some 350 feet high into a tributary of the Elm Fork of the Trinity River for subsequent use. The public, refusing to accept drinking "polluted" water, supported and gained acceptance for use of Red River water even though it was considered to be of inferior quality by the utility. In an effort to sway public opinion, the Dallas Water Superintendent publicly drank water from a bench-scale pilot plant demonstrating the usability of the Trinitv River water. However, this effort failed. In addition, abandoned water pumping plants on small streams in the area were reactivated, and wells were drilled to depths of 2700 to 3200 feet to secure additional water. By the mid-1950's, water supplies continued to dwin- dle to the point that conservation measures were intro- duced. Water was rationed in response to ordinances passed by the Dallas City Council, which called for water sprinkling on alternate days by even and odd numbered houses. Water use continued to be restricted, with more drastic restrictions introduced as supplies continued to diminish. Some businesses drilled shallow wells into water lenses lying 15 to 20 feet below the surface of the ground, which provided small quantities of water. These waters were used in some instances to operate small businesses such as car washes and to sprinkle lawns in residential areas. For the most part, the public was very cooperative. The water utility released information to the news media to keep the public informed as to the reasons for conserva- tion measures and changes in water quality and taste. However, numerous real or imagined complaints due to deteriorating water quality and taste were received by the utility. Problems included inferior taste, horticultural damage, increased service requirements for water-using cooling equipment, effects of water quality on persons with diet problems, and damage to plumbing. Water shortages were experienced by citizens for ap- proximately 6 years. Economic costs and losses, although not quantified, were experienced by water users. The degree to which perceived losses actually were related to 89 the drought is as yet unproven. Losses were caused both by reduction in the supply of water and by changes in the quality of the water. Horticultural damage to lawns and shrubs was experi- enced. Because of the salt content of the Red River water, which was highest during the summer months, losses to salt-sensitive plants such as gardenias, azaleas, and camellias was reported. Others reported loss of lawns or plants because they either could not sprinkle enough or had a highly mineralized supply. Deep-watering irriga- tion principles had to be learned by the citizens. Other citizens with private wells and fine lawns displayed signs noting their lack of use of city water. Other economic losses resulted from use of the highly mineralized waters. Plumbing damage was experienced, and it caused many unhappy water users. Because of the good-quality water available prior to the drought, most piping was wrought iron and water heaters were gal- vanized. Water heaters often lasted at least 7 years and sometimes as long as 17 years. In some areas, hot well water devoid of oxygen was in use. Thus, plumbing was not built to withstand corrosive waters. When sources of water supply changed, plumbing failure and ensuing large plumbing bills were experienced. Evaporative coolers with recirculating pumps, which were in widespread use, began for the first time to require frequent service and cleaning. Many people who were unaccustomed to cleaning their coolers found pans filled with brines and fiber mats fouled with minerals. Taste and odor problems were significant and caused many complaints. Some were traceable to changes in water quality, while others resulted from the use of wa- ters subject to warm-weather algal blooms. Furthermore, the Dallas County Medical Society was kept apprised of the mineral content particularly the sodium consent of the water for use by patients who were sensitive to changes in mineral content. Bottled water became a pri- mary source of drinking water for some persons in Dallas. Some of the bottled water sold in local grocery stores was shipped from spas in Arkansas and was more highly mineralized (in sodium, for example) than was the Dallas water supply. Water with foul odors was also produced in water heaters when there were changes in the water-supply source. Ceramic-lined water heaters were placed in some sections of the city with cathodic protection in the form of magnesium rods. These magnesium anodes were sized for the Dallas surface-water supply and when well water was used had to be removed because of the reduction of sulfites in the well water to sulfides in the absence of oxygen. The public cooperated fully with the utility, recogniz- ing the seriousness of the situation. The utility worked to keep the public informed, and the information supplied was useful in stimulating cooperation. (The author is indebted to M. E. Bolding of the Dallas Water Utilities for this information.)

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go YORK, PENNS YLVANIA The City of York, Pennsylvania, is situated in the south- central part of the state. The York Water Company, which serves the area, is a privately owned enterprise. More than half of the income in the area served by the water company is derived from industrial and commercial sources. The shortage considered herein occurred in 1966 and was part of the general drought that afflicted the northeast of the United States at that time. During the four years preceding 1966, precipitation had been below normal. Winter snowfalls had been light, and unusually cold winters resulted in deep ground freezing and high spring runoff without significant infiltration to the groundwaters. Total precipitation in March through May 1966 was 25 percent below normal. Because there was almost no rain in tune, water demands were high. By tune 13, the company had to begin drawing upon reser- voir storage. Conditions worsened in late tune and early July with near record water uses being recorded. On July 14, under order of the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, mandatory controls on use of water were instituted. However, commercial car washing, lawn watering, and private car washing without the use of a hose were permitted. Consumption was reduced almost immediately by 20 percent. By July 22, with conditions worsening, further restrictions in water use were insti- tuted. These restrictions ended car washing (commercial and private), use of water-cooled air conditioning, filling of swimming pools, and serving water in restaurants. These further conservation measures produced little in terms of reductions in water use. The water company advertised the following suggested ways of conserving water in the home: 1. Use only the smallest amount of water needed for tub baths. 2. Take quick showers. 3. Do not let water run for hand washing. 4. Use a cup or glass of water when brushing teeth. 5. Wash only full washer loads. 6. Wash dishes only once a day. 7. Flush toilets less frequently. 8. Check plumbing fixtures for leaks. 9. Serve drinking water only when requested. As the public became more aware of the seriousness of the situation, use was cut by another 20 percent. By August 17, the water company was forced to begin to obtain water from two quarries in the area. In addition, the company began trucking in water in 60 vehicles around the clock, increasing from 1 to 4.2 million gallons a day. By the time the rains came on September 14 ending the drought, more than 67 million gallons of water had been transported by truck. Furthermore, prior to the breaking of the drought, contingency plans had been laid, including laying emergency pipelines to other sources. One of those considered would have been a 16- to 20-inch WILBUR L. METER, JR. pipe, which was laid some 16 miles to the Susquchanna River. Other plans included consideration of using rail- road cars to bring water into the community. Water Resources Engineers, Inc. ( 1972) undertook the task of determining economic losses that were incurred by the residential, industrial, commercial, and municipal sectors of the area served by the York Water Company. Results were obtained by a survey of residential and industrial water users and are summarized below. Residential consumers include those billed on aJZat rate and metered basis. Questionnaires were sent to ap- proximately 40 percent of the flat-rate customers and 90 percent of the metered customers. Approximately 13 per- cent of the flat-rate customers and 20 percent of the metered customers returned completed questionnaires. The results of the survey summarizing losses suffered in dollar amounts are given in Table 5.1. Respondents further indicated that their priority for voluntary conser- vation in saving water during time of drought was as follows: 1. Lawn sprinkling. 2. Car washing. 3. Tub or shower. 4. Laundry. 5. Toilets. 6. Dishwashing. Residential consumers further complained about the inconvenience experienced, taste and odor problems en- countered, and concern over health hazards. Bottled water was consumed for drinking in large quantities here also. Industrial consumers were surveyed by the Manufac- turers' Association of York in October 1966 following Me drought. Industrial consumers subdivided their estimated shortage costs in the following categories: 1. Drilling of wells. 2. Labor and materials. 3. Engineering services. 4. Shutdown of testing facilities using water. 5. Water treatment. 6. Miscellaneous. The costs in each of these categories are summarized in Table 5.2. A summary of the estimated total industrial losses as a function of the percent reduction in water availability is shown in Figure 5.4. Further visits with plant personnel familiar with ac- tivities during the 1966 drought provided a list of emergency measures undertaken by the companies to cope with shortage problems. The most common ones are summarized below: 1. A general request to all employees to conserve water throughout the plant. 2. Digging of wells on plant property.

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Identification of Economic and Societal Impacts of Water Shortages 91 TABLE 5.1 Losses Suffered by Residential Customers in York, Pennsylvania (Flat Rate and Metered), in 1966 Droughta Estimated Distribution Estimated of All Estimated Toed Total Customers Losses Losses Loss Distribu No. of Column (C) x per Loss Column (E) x Cumulative Categories Respondees tion, To Customers Total of(D) Category, $ (F), $ Losses, $ (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) Flat Rate Customers Negligible 870 80.9 16,965 0 0 0 Under $50 109 10.1 2,118 10 21,180 21,180 $50 to $100 58 5.4 1,132 50 56,600 77,780 $100 to $500 22 2.0 419 100 41,900 119,680 $500 to $1000 14 1.3 273 500 136,500 256,180 Over $1000 3 0.3 63 1000 63,000 319,180 Subtotals 1076 100.0 20,970 20,970 319,180 Metered Customers Negligible 1488 74.6 6,403 0 0 0 Under $50 253 12.7 1,089 10 10,890 10,890 $50 to $100 164 8.2 703 50 35,150 46,040 $100 to $500 82 4.1 352 100 35,200 81,240 $500 to $1000 5 0.25 21 500 10,500 91,740 Over $1000 2 0.15 9 1000 9,000 100,740 Subtotals 1994 100.0 8,577 8,577 - 100,740 GRAND TOTALS 3070 29,547 419,920 Total Losses: $419,920 . 29,547 = $14.21 per Residential Customer aSource: Questionnaires returned by residential customers of the York Water Company. TABLE 5.2 Expenses for Emergency Services and Sup- plies Incurred by Large Water-Consuming Firms in the York, Pennsylvania, Area during 1966 Water Shortage Perioda 4 Firms Locally Services and Supplies Owned Well drilling Processing changes to conserve water Engineering services Losses resulting from stopping of testing ~ . .. .. tact sties requiring water $ 9,000 $ 21,772 13,000 38,833 5,000 18,678 21 Firms Total Externally of 25 Owned Firms $ 30,772 51,833 23,678 14,500 14,500 Supplementary water treatment 1,000 6,051 7,051 Over expenses 7 500 4,555 12,055 TOTALS $35,500 $104,389 $139,889 aSource: Survey of the Manufacturers' Association of York, Pennsylvania. 3. Tapping of nearby creeks, ponds, and quarries. 4. Hauling water by tank truck. 5. Installation of water recirculation facilities and equipment. 6. Postponing strictly nonproductive operations such as research and testing that used significant amounts of water. Interviews with persons in commercial establishments failed to produce significant loss information. Commer- cial establishments such as car washes and nurseries indicated experiencing losses. One car wash drilled a well that provided water supply. Others had water trucked in to continue operation. One nursery experi- enced a loss of $30,000 when its stock was lost because of the ban on sprinkling. No significant losses were experienced in the munici- pal sector. However, because water companies are often public utilities, the losses experienced by the York Water Company are indicative of the types of losses that can be experienced by public water utilities. Expenses incurred by the York Water Company for emergency water are summarized in Table 5.3. In addition to these increased

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92 800,000 700, Coo 600, 000 500, 000 FIGURE 5.4 Industrial losses. ~ ' 300~000 200, 000 100,XO o expenses, the York Water Company suffered significant losses due to decreased revenues as water use dropped. TRENTON, NEW JERS E Y A water shortage struck Trenton, New Jersey, in Septem- ber 1975, which illustrates several factors common to water emergency situations (Cyphers, 1976; The Evening Times, 1975~. The shortage was caused by failure in the pumping plant in the city's waterworks. Briefly, a check valve failed to operate as pumps were being stopped and new pumps started causing backflow from the city's stor- age reservoir leading to rupture of a culvert and the eventual flooding and incapacitation of the plant. The damage occurred on Sunday, August 31. However, it was Friday, September 5, before water really began flowing again into the reservoirs and mains, leaving the city virtually without water for several days the period Wednesday through Friday. TABLE 5.3 Expenses for Emergency Water Incurred by the York Water Company, 1966a Paid to Firms Locally Owned Extemally Owned Total Quarries Trucking Railroad Pipeline West Branch Over TOTALS $ 40,475 386,327 1,703 600 45,955 23,628 $498,688 $ 1,427 4,220 5,388 7,504 1,507 21,189 $41,235 $ 41,902 390,547 7,091 8,104 47,462 44,817 $539,923 aSource: Records of the York Water Company. WILBUR L. MEIER, JR. BASED ON 19 COMPANIES IF EXTER ~ - BASED ON LOCALE 4 COMPANIES 20 40 60 80 1 DO PERCENT CUTBACK OF WATER A water emergency such as this a distribution emergencycan hit a city at any time. Although volun- teers by hundreds came from the city and suburbs to man auxiliary pumps and hastily strung fire hose and tempo- rary pipe interconnections to neighboring water supplies, a serious crisis gripped the city. Once the plant was submerged, the crisis could not have been averted. How- ever, the crisis strongly indicated the need for 1. A specific plan for water management action in the event of a crisis. 2. Consideration of regional interconnection of water supplies in urban areas to provide help in the event of crises. 3. Problems associated with repressurizing a water- supply system. Agencies are actively considering action plans to per- mit coping with water-supply emergencies (Water Re- sources Engineers, Inc., 1975~. The action of water mana- gers has been shown to be an important variable in successfully dealing with a water crisis (Century Re- search Corporation, 1972; Young et al., 19721. In Trenton, the water works management did not appear to estimate adequately the length of time pump repairs would take to complete. Thus, the public was not forewarned to con- serve the dwindling water supply nor were measures to close industries or other water-consuming units made until water pressures began to fall in outlying areas. The public did not realize the seriousness of the crisis until water pressure began to fall within the system. The lack of water pressure presents real safety problems to the city in such areas as ability to fight major fires. Further- more, contamination of water supply and damage to water systems can occur as pressure falls and infiltration into

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Identification of Economic and Societal Impacts of Water Shortages 93 water lines occurs. More than a day was required to Newlersey,andDelaware.Becauseofthe vast number of repressurize the Trenton water system after repairs had people served by the Delaware and the number of major been made, and users were warned to leave taps open to bleed air from the water lines and disinfect lines through superchlorination. In addition, residents were warned to boil all water before drinking for two days after the system was repressurized. Hasty interconnections were made with neighboring cities by firemen and other volunteers using fire pumpers and civil defense pumps along with fire hose and other temporary piping. Some cities reportedly pumped so much water into the Trenton system that pumping had to be interrupted to keep from endangering their own sup- plies. Although these interconnections were most help- ful, it was not possible to meet even the reduced needs of Trenton by using them. It is interesting to note that, although interconnection of electric power grids is an accepted practice, direct interconnection of water-supply systems is uncommon and even rare. This is due in part to the fact that water systems have storage as an integral part of them. Water-supply systems are often indirectly inter- connected in that the same river or aquifer system may furnish water supplies for several cities. Direct intercon- nection and interchange of water by municipalities, polit- ical subdivisions, and water companies may be important safety features to be considered in water-systems design. Teamwork by public officials, firemen, civil defense authorities, and private citizens developed quickly to keep the water crisis in Trenton from becoming much worse than in fact it became. Cooperation among the citizenry resulted in sharply reduced demand for water and major efforts to bring auxiliary water supplies from neighboring areas into use. Faster action on the part of public officials in recognizing the developing crisis coupled with an action plan for dealing with the shortage emergency would have helped the city stretch available supplies and cope with the crisis more effectively. As a distribution emergency can strike almost any city at any time, alert officials and contingency planning appear to be most necessary. DELAWARE RIVER BASING A major drought struck the entire northeastern United Staes in the 1960's. A serious water shortage resulted in the Delaware River Basin and caused competition be- tween several major cities and states for the limited avail- able water (Hogerty, 19701. This water shortage illustrates the complex legal and institutional problems resulting when water crises precipitate confrontations between parties sharing water resources. Furthermore, this crisis clearly demonstrates the need for institutional mecha- nisms to mediate conflicting claims for limited water during shortage periods. The Delaware River provides water to approximately 22 million people and a major portion of this country's industry. The river originates in New York State and forms part of the border for He states of Pennsylvania, cities and states vying for its use, the river has had more than its share of water problems and political battles fought over it. It is certainly not surprising that during a period of drought the Delaware would become a source of controversy. When the drought of the 1960's struck the northeastern United States, New York City depended on the Delaware River for one third of its water require- ments. Philadelphia met approximately one half of its water-supply requirements from the Delaware River, which at New Jersey supplied portions of the require- ments for a number of cities including Trenton and New Brunswick. For many years, attempts to effect regional management of Delaware water resources had been tried. After efforts to develop an interstate compact failed in the 1920's, litigation among New York City, New Jersey, and Pennyslvania led to a 1931 ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court permitting New York City to divert water from the upper Delaware even though the New York City metropolitan area did not lie within the basin. Joint legislation in the affected states led to the creation of the Interstate Commission on the Delaware in 1936, which was superseded in 1961 by the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC). The DRBC had powers to ad- minister and manage the use of the Delaware water and possessed regulatory authority as well. The Commission had the power to carry out a 1954 decree of the U.S. Supreme Court regulating releases and diversions within the basin. The years before 1961 proved to be ones of water abundance, and officials estimated adequate water sup- plies in the Delaware River Basin to meet water require- ments until the year 2010. However, during the period 196 ~1966, a serious drought began, which would last approximately 4 years and would be more serious Han any to hit the Northeast since at least 1820. During the period 1961-1965,the precipitation deficiency equaled one full year of average rainfall. The effects of this drought were felt throughout the basin at different times. Portions of New Jersey began to feel the effects of the drought in 1964 and met the chal- lenge by encouraging conservation measures. By 1965, a drought emergency was declared by the Governor of New Jersey. New York City, which possesses the world's largest municipal water works, felt the eRects of the drought in 1964 with reservoir storage being reduced to levels caus- ing concern to public officials. However, these officials were interested in not alarming the citizens. Thus, assur- ances were given through early 1965 that there appeared to be no real cause for alarm. By April 1965, water levels in storage reservoirs were at such dangerous levels that stringent restrictions were placed in effect to conserve dwindling reserves. Prohibition against outside uses such as lawn sprinkling, washing automobiles, and flushing walks were begun in an effort to avert uses not considered absolutely necessary.

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94 Trouble spots in Pennsylvania in 1965 were confined largely to tributary streams in which spring-fed systems were beginning to run out of water. Philadelphia was not experiencing difficulties but was concerned with the in- trusion of salt water into the Delaware as river flows began declining. By mid-lune 1965, four years after the drought had begun, the City of New York, fearing a major water emergency as reservoir levels declined, abruptly stopped making its downstream releases from its upper Delaware reservoirs as required by Interstate Compact and Su- preme Court decree. The Delaware River Master was unable to get New York to honor his order to begin making required releases again. The situation continued to worsen as the States of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania considered alterna- tive action to protect their dwindling water supplies. Although the DRBC had emergency powers that could be invoked to supersede compact provisions and make emergency water allocations, some doubted that the agency could be effective in a dispute between states. A meeting of the DRBC was called in early luly. At this meeting, plans were proposed by the parties to the crisis and by the DRBC staff. A subsequent meeting was held, and, after much negotiation and analytical investigation, the DRBC declared an emergency and adopted two resolu- tions defining a set of reservoir releases and diversion rates, which were accepted by the parties as a compro- mise solution. A continuing set of agreements resulting from studies of latest hydrologic data served as an evolv- ing compromise solution to the water emergency being experienced. The DRBC and the involved states sought and received federal assistance in the form of disaster reliefand agency aid. The crisis also served as leverage to secure passage of the Federal Water Resources Planning Act. The drought lasted until the spring of 1967, with DRBC continuing to allocate scarce water resources. The Commission successfully served to settle differences between the parties to the DRBC compact when a drought emergency struck. The Commission staff was able to evaluate tech- nical features of solution alternatives and obtain com- promise agreements to serve each of the affected parties. The DRBC had successfully survived the emergency and demonstrated the ability of river basin commissions to meet the needs of several states comprising its member- ship. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Water-supply systems are designed to meet man's need for one of the most basic resources water. Considering a need so basic, one would expect that a great deal of information would be available regarding the social and economic effects of deficits in water supply upon residen- tial, commercial, and industrial consumers. Surprisingly, this is not the case. Thus, water-resource planners and WILBUR L. METER, JR. systems designers have only fragmentary information concerning the nature of water-use characteristics and effects of shortages when developing their designs. People can and do reduce water usage rather sigifi- cantly in response to emergencies or deficits in supply. Thus, it might appear that designing water-supply sys- tems presuming that all desires for water will be met at all times may be unrealistic, unusually costly, and unneces- sary. Irrigation systems in the arid Southwest are often designed including a probability of shortage. Research is needed to define water-use characteristics leading to a greater understanding of the range of alterna- tives open to governmental planners and water agencies and companies in designing water-supply systems and promoting effective use of water resources. Some re- search has been undertaken to identify water require- ments and water-use characteristics (Century Research Corporation, 1972; Potter et al., 1976; Water Resources Engineers, Inc., 1975; Young et al., 1972; Lofting and Davis, Chapter 3~. However, the amount of research com- pleted to date is limited compared with that needed to support water planners and systems designers as they forecast water needs and plan systems to supply these needs. Some of the types of research needed are as follows: 1. Audits of experience in areas that have been sub- jected to water shortage, particularly over extended periods of time. 2. Identification of water requirements for various uses within homes, commercial establishments, and industrial plants, classifying these uses according to quantity used and economic and demographic differences. 3. Development of quantitative measures of effects of varying degrees of water deficits on water users, consider- ing ranges of frequency, duration, and magnitude of shortage and variation of economic and demographic conditions. 4. Consideration of the feasibility of interconnecting water-supply systems providing for transfer of water par- ticularly where different sources of supply are present. 5. Study of the effects of alternative institutional ar- rangements making possible cooperative action between cities, water companies, states, and other political divi- s~ons. 6. Evaluation to alternative contingency plans in vari- ous localities or water systems in different classifications to select managerial actions appropriate in the face of water emergencies. 7. Investigation of the economic and social effects of short- and long-term variations in water supply upon residential, commercial, and industrial users. Research in these and related areas is fundamental to the successful design of water-supply systems. At a time when water utility budgets are coming under increasing pressure, this research is greatly needed.

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Identification of Economic and Societal Impacts of Water Shortages REFERENCES Bolding, M. E. (1975). Dallas Water Utilities, personal communi- cation, Dec. Century Research Corp. (1972). Social Aspects of Urban Water Conservation, Final Rep. to Office of Water Resources Re- search, Contract 14-31-0001-3401, Arlington, Va., Aug. Cyphers, R. E. (1976). New Jersey Division of Water Resources, personal communication, Jan. The Evening Times, Trenton, N.J., newspaper articles, Sept. Hogerty, R. A. (1970~. The Delaware River Drought Emergency, Inter-University Case Program No. 107, The Bobbs-Merrill Co., Indianapolis, Ind. Potter, H. R., et al. (1976). Systematic Development of 95 Methodologies in Planning Urban Water Resources for Medium Sized Communities, Tech. Rep. 63, Water Resources Research Center, Purdue U., West Lafayette, Ind., May. Russell, C. S., D. G. Arey, and R. W. Kate s (1970~. Drought and Water Supply, The Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Md. Water Resources Engineers, Inc. (1975~. Effects of Water Supply Deficits, Washington Metropolitan Area, Report to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northeastern Water Supply Study, Jan. Mite, G. F., and J. E. Haas (1975). Assessment of Research on Natural Hazards, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. Young, G. K., R. S. Taylor, and J. J. Hanks (1972). A Methodology for assessing Economic Risk of Water Supply Shortages, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources Rep. 72-6, Springfield, Va., May 1.

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