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Preparing for the Twenty-First Century: A Report to the USGS Water Resources Division Committee on USGS Water Resources Research Water Science and Technology Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1991

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to Procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey under Cooperative Agreement No. 14-08-0001-A0683/R. Copies available from Water Science and Technology Board 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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COMMITTEE ON USGS WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH WALTER R. LYNN, Chairman, Cornell University JAMES W. BIGGAR, University of California, Davis LENORE S. CLESCERI, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute ROBERT A. GOLDSTEIN, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California MARJORIE M. HOLLAND, Ecological Society of America, Bethesda, Maryland GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, University of Virginia PHILIP C. KEARNEY, Agricultural Research Service, Beltsville, Maryland SHLOMO P. NEWMAN, University of Arizona EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park CLIFFORD S. RUSSELL, Vanderbilt University PHILIP SINGER, University of North Carolina KENNETH N. WEAVER, Maryland Geological Survey, Baltimore NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF STEPHEN D. PARKER, Project Officer ANITA A. HALL, Project Secretary JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Research Associate U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REPRESENTATIVES PHILIP COHEN, Chief Hydrologist ROBERT HIRSCH, Assistant Chief Hydrologist for Research and External Coordination NOTE: Listed above is the committee roster as of completion of drafting of this report. Other individuals serving as members of the committee during the preparation of this report (April 1989-December 1990) include: Edward J. Bonwer, The Johns Hopkins University; Thomas Dunne, University of Washington; Kenneth W. Potter, University of Wisconsin; and Hugo F. Thomas, Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection. In addition to Philip Cohen and Robert Hirsch, several other U. S. Geological Survey scientists and managers contributed background material and interacted with the committee. These include several district chiefs, researchers, and agency managers. Their contributions are greatly appreciated.

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WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD MICHAEL KAVANAUGH, James M. Montgomery Consulting Engineers, Walnut Creek, California, Chairman NORMAN H. BROOKS, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation, South Charleston, West Virginia DUANE L. GEORGESON, Metropolitan Water District, Los Angeles HOWARD C. KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia ROBERT R. MEGLEN, University of Colorado, Denver JUDY L. MEYER, University of Georgia DONALD J. O'CONNOR, HydroQual, Inc., Mahwah, New Jersey BETTY H. OLSON, University of California, Irvine KENNETH W. POTTER, University of Wisconsin, Madison P. SURESH C. RAG, University of Florida, Gainesville DONALD D. RUNNELLS, University of Colorado, Boulder PHILIP C. SINGER, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill A. DAN TARLOCK, Chicago Kent College of Law HUGO F. THOMAS, Department of Environmental Protection, Hartford, Connecticut JAMES R. WALLIS, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York M. GORDON WOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore STAFF STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director SHEILA D. DAVID, Senior Staff Officer CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer SARAH CONNICK, Staff Officer JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Research Associate JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Specialist ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Secretary PATRICIA CICERO, Secretary MARCIA WARE, Secretary 1V

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION............................................... Evolution of the Water Resources Division, 7 The Water Resources Division Today, 12 . 1 2 FUTURE WRD ROLES AND INTERACTIONS 16 External Cooperation, 17 Technology Transfer, 22 Education, 23 3 FUTURE WRD TECHNICAL NICHES Wellhead/Aquifer Protection, 25 Integrated Water Supply Management, 26 Climate Change, 26 Water Quality, 27 Drought and Flood Hydrology, 28 Wetlands, 28 Lakes and Reservoirs, 29 Estuaries, Harbors, and Bays, 29 25 4 FUTURE WRD ORGANIZATION 31 Evaluating the Three Program Areas, 31 Reorganizing to Meet Future Challenges, 35 Reevaluating the WRD Mission Statement, 36 APPENDIX Biographical Sketches of Comm ittee Members 38

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