6    GOING BEYOND INITIAL A PRIORI ANALYSIS

6.1    Unanticipated Impacts

6.2    Limits of A Priori Analysis

6.2.1    The Limited Utility of Technology Forecasting

6.2.2    Sources of Uncertainty in Technology Forecasting

6.3    Broadening Predictive Analysis of Ethical, Legal, and Societal Issues

6.3.1    Use of Deliberative Processes

6.3.2    Anticipatory Governance

6.3.3    Adaptive Planning

7    MECHANISMS FOR ADDRESSING ETHICAL, LEGAL, AND SOCIETAL ISSUES

7.1    Characterizing Possible Mechanisms for Addressing Ethical, Legal, and Societal Issues

7.2    What Mechanisms Have Been Used to Address Ethical, Legal, and Societal Issues?

7.2.1    Self-regulation and Self-awareness

7.2.2    Established Institutional Mechanisms

7.2.3    Existing DARPA Efforts to Manage ELSI Concerns

7.3    Considerations for Mechanisms Used to Address Ethical, Legal, and Societal Issues in the Context of Military R&D

8    FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

8.1    Synthesis

8.2    Findings

8.3    Recommendations

8.3.1    Recommendations for Agencies

8.3.2    Recommendation for Research-Performing Institutions and Individual Researchers

8.4    Concluding Observations

APPENDIXES

A    Committee Members and Staff

B    Meeting Agendas and Participants

C    Research and Development Organizations Within the Department of Defense

D    Established Institutional Mechanisms for Addressing Ethical, Legal, and Societal Issues



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