The Resilience of the
Electric Power Delivery System
in Response to Terrorism and
Natural Disasters


David W. Cooke, Rapporteur

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences



Washington, D.C.

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David W. Cooke, Rapporteur Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Support for this project was provided by BP America, GE Energy, General Motors Corporation, and Intel Corporation. Support was also provided by the National Academy of Sciences through the following endowed funds created to perpetually support the work of the National Research Council: Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, Arthur L. Day Fund, W.K. Kellogg Foundation Fund, George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for Sustainability Science, and the Frank Press Fund for Dissemination and Outreach. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-29395-2 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-29395-2 Copies of this report are available in limited supply, free of charge, from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck W934, Washington, DC 20001, (202) 334-3344. Additional copies of this report are available for sale from: The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001, (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313, Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON THE RESILIENCE OF THE ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM TO TERRORISM AND NATURAL DISASTERS M. GRANGER MORGAN, NAS, 1 Carnegie Mellon University, Chair CLARK W. GELLINGS, Electric Power Research Institute DAVID K. OWENS, Edison Electric Institute LOUIS L. RANA, Consolidated Edison Company (retired) RICHARD E. SCHULER, Cornell University SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group Staff PETER BLAIR, Executive Director, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board of Energy and Environmental Systems 1 National Academy of Sciences. v

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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE, 1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan, Chair WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, NAE, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina PAUL A. DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN G. HINGORANI, NAE, Independent Consultant, San Mateo, California ROBERT HUGGETT, Independent Consultant, Seaford, Virginia DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis DANIEL NOCERA, NAS, 2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MARGO OGE, Environmental Protection Agency (retired), McLean, Virginia MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey JACKALYNE PFANNENSTIEL, Independent Consultant, Piedmont, California DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Stanford, California BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Daimler-Chrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City ADRIAN ZACCARIA, NAE, Bechtel Group (retired), Frederick, Maryland Staff JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Board/Program Director DANA CAINES, Financial Associate DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer/Associate Director LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator ALICE V. WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant 1 National Academy of Engineering. 2 National Academy of Sciences. vi

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Preface The National Research Council (NRC) released a report, Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System, 1 in 2012 that analyzed the vulnerability of the electric grid to terrorist attacks and measures to reduce that vulnerability. The report had been written in 2007 for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), but publication was delayed because of security concerns. While most of the committee’s findings were still relevant, many developments affecting vulnerability had occurred in the interval. In order to expand familiarity with the report among potential users and explore recent and future trends, a workshop was held on February 27-28, 2013. The specific goals of the workshop were to discuss the committee’s results, what had changed in recent years, and how lessons learned about the grid’s resilience to terrorism could be applied to other threats to the grid resulting from natural disasters. The workshop focused on five key areas: physical vulnerabilities of the grid; cybersecurity; mitigation and response to outages; community resilience and the provision of critical services; and future technologies and policies that could enhance the resilience of the electric power delivery system. This report is a summary of the presentations and discussions at the workshop. No effort was made to achieve any consensus views of the participants or the planning committee. The summary does not contain any conclusions or recommendations on the part of the NRC or any advice to the government. Nor does it represent a viewpoint of the National Academies or any of its constituent units, and no priorities are implied by the order in which the issues are presented. The workshop was recorded, and the videos may be viewed at The workshop was made possible through the hard work and dedication of the individuals who served on the NRC Committee on Enhancing the Robustness and Resilience of Future Electrical Transmission and Distribution in the United States to Terrorist Attack (Appendix A) as well as the invited presenters and workshop participants listed in Appendix B. Special recognition is due to Daniel Ribas at Spark Street Lighting, who provided an excellent webcast of the workshop that was invaluable in the writing of this summary, and Sheryl Bottner of the NRC’s Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences (DEPS), who facilitated putting online both the presentations from the workshop and the webcast. The committee is grateful to Peter Blair, DEPS Executive Director, and Paul Michaels of the NRC’s Office of Security for their work with the Department of Homeland Security to release an unclassified version of the report Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System. This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the 1 National Research Council, 2012, Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.. vii

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NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for quality and objectivity. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the review process. The author would like to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Anjan Bose, Washington State University, Paul A. DeCotis, Long Island Power Authority, Narain G. Hingorani, Independent Consultant, Paul J. Kern, The Cohen Group, Richard E. Schuler, Cornell University, Alison Silverstein, Independent Consultant, and Bruce F. Wollenberg, University of Minnesota. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Chris Whipple of Environ. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution. David W. Cooke Rapporteur viii

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Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Origin of the Workshop, 1 A Changing Climate, 2 2 GRID INFRASTRUCTURE 4 Attacking the Infrastructure, 5 Natural Disasters, 6 Solutions, 7 3 CYBERSECURITY OF THE GRID 10 Merging of Infrasructures, 10 Risk Assessment and Cybersecurity, 12 Solutions, 13 4 RESPONDING TO OUTAGES 15 Restoration of Power, 15 Critical Services and Community Resilience, 16 Solutions, 18 5 THE FUTURE OF THE GRID 22 Distributed Generation, 22 The Smart Grid, 23 6 SUMMARY OF MAIN POINTS RAISED IN WORKSHOP DISCUSSIONS 25 APPENDIXES A Authorship of Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System 27 B Workshop Participants 28 C Workshop Presentations and Discussions 30 ix

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