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FRONTIERS OF

ENGINEERING

Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2013 Symposium

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
                             OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu



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Frontiers of Engineering Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2013 Symposium

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: This publication has been reviewed according to procedures approved by a National Academy of Engineering report review process. Publication of signed work signi- fies that it is judged a competent and useful contribution worthy of public consideration, but it does not imply endorsement of conclusions or recommendations by the NAE. The interpretations and conclusions in such publications are those of the authors and do not purport to represent the views of the council, officers, or staff of the National Academy of Engineering. Funding for the activity that led to this publication was provided by DuPont, The Grainger Foundation, Microsoft Research, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Department of Defense ASD(R&E)–Research Directorate- STEM Development Office, Cummins Inc., and the Greater Wilmington Convention and Visitors Bureau. This material is also based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No.1305854. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recom- mendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. In addition, the content of this pub- lication does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-29603-8 International Standard Book Number-10:  0-309-29603-X Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis- tinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the further- ance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the ­ cademy has a ­ andate that A m requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding ­ ngineers. e It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina- tion of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scien- tific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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ORGANIZING COMMITTEE KRISTI ANSETH (Chair), Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator and Distinguished Professor of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder HALIL BERBEROGLU, Assistant Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas at Austin TANZEEM CHOUDHURY, Associate Professor, Department of Information Science, Cornell University ELIZABETH HOEGEMAN, Cummins Fuel Systems World Wide Manufacturing Leader, Cummins Inc. SCOTT KLEMMER, Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science, University of California, San Diego YUEH-LIN (LYNN) LOO, Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University J. RHETT MAYOR, Associate Professor, George W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology TSE NGA (TINA) NG, Senior Research Scientist, Electronic Materials and Devices Laboratory, Palo Alto Research Center STUART THOMAS, Global Technology and Licensing Manager, DuPont Cellulosic Ethanol, Industrial Biosciences, DuPont Staff JANET R. HUNZIKER, Senior Program Officer VANESSA LESTER, Program Associate iv

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Preface This volume presents papers on the topics covered at the National Academy of Engineering’s 2013 US Frontiers of Engineering Symposium. Every year the symposium brings together 100 outstanding young leaders in engineering to share their cutting-edge research and innovations in selected areas. The 2013 symposium was held September 19–21 and was hosted by DuPont in ­ ilmington, Delaware. W The intent of this book is to convey the excitement of this unique meeting and to highlight innovative developments in engineering research and technical work. Goals of the Frontiers of Engineering Program The practice of engineering is continually changing. Engineers must be able not only to thrive in an environment of rapid technological change and globaliza- tion but also to work on interdisciplinary teams. Today’s research is being done at the intersections of engineering disciplines, and successful researchers and practitioners must be aware of developments and challenges in areas that may not be familiar to them. At the annual 2½-day US Frontiers of Engineering Symposium, 100 of this country’s best and brightest engineers—ages 30 to 45, from academia, industry, and government and a variety of engineering disciplines—learn from their peers about pioneering work in different areas of engineering. The number of partici- pants is limited to 100 to maximize opportunities for interactions and exchanges among the attendees, who are chosen through a competitive nomination and selec- tion process. The symposium is designed to foster contacts and learning among promising individuals who would not meet in the usual round of professional meetings. This networking may lead to collaborative work, facilitate the transfer v

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vi PREFACE of new techniques and approaches, and produce insights and applications that bolster US innovative capacity. The four topics and the speakers for each year’s meeting are selected by an organizing committee of engineers in the same 30- to 45-year-old cohort as the participants. Speakers describe the challenges they face and communicate the excitement of their work to a technically sophisticated but nonspecialist audi- ence. They provide a brief overview of their field of inquiry; define the frontiers of that field; describe experiments, prototypes, and design studies (completed or in progress) as well as new tools and methods, limitations, and controversies; and assess the long-term significance of their work. The 2013 Symposium The topics covered at the 2013 symposium were (1) designing and analyzing societal networks, (2) cognitive manufacturing, (3) energy: reducing our depen- dence on fossil fuels, and (4) flexible electronics. The session on societal networks addressed opportunities and challenges posed by the large-scale adoption of social technologies such as social networks, smart mobile devices, digital health, and online education. The first speaker covered the modeling of large-scale networks based on mobility data, examin- ing how users’ data profiles alone, without any connectivity information, can be used to infer their connectivity with others. The next presenter described several prototype crowd computing systems that harness the power of people on the Web to do tasks such as editing or reviewing computer code that may be too difficult or time-consuming for one person to do alone. The next talk, about how people on the ground during a disaster use mobile devices and social media platforms to share information about unfolding events, considered the challenge of getting real-time information to the right people at the right time. The session ended with a presentation on computational social science, the study of complex social systems through computational modeling and related techniques; noting that there has been little progress on “big” questions such as the dynamics of epidemics, the speaker described reasons for and suggested ways to address this problem. Cognitive manufacturing refers to production systems that utilize “cognitive reasoning” engines or distributed intelligence agents that are capable of autono- mous operation and require only high-level supervisory control. These systems can, for example, perceive changes in processes and effect adaptations to maintain target ranges of metrics such as production cost, rate, and energy consumption. The first presentation concerned the use of distributed anomaly detection agents to detect and remedy flaws without the need for fault-specific recognition, thus expediting correction and dramatically reducing factory downtime and associated costs. This was followed by a description of the adaptation and incorporation of business process management techniques to enhance decision making and sys- tem development in manufacturing. The third speaker covered the deployment

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PREFACE vii of computer-enabled decision making at the production system logistics level to optimize global logistics methods and supply chain design. The final speaker discussed the application of computer-enabled cognitive manufacturing systems to support sustainable production systems. The focus of the third session was energy issues, specifically efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and to develop technical solutions for diversifying the fuel production infrastructure to meet energy needs. An overview talk surveyed technical, economic, environmental, social, and policy issues associated with dependence on fossil fuels as well as challenges for technology innovation. The second presenter reviewed advances and challenges in biofuel production technolo- gies (e.g., for terrestrial biomass feedstock), infrastructure, and transportation. This was followed by an industry perspective on efforts to include nonfossil fuels in the fuel infrastructure. In the last talk the speaker described the mechanics and compo- nents of artificial solar fuel generation and the research needed to advance its use. The symposium concluded with a session on flexible electronics, in which conventional fabrication processes have been transformed to incorporate elec- tronic control and power sources into diverse materials, including surfaces that are soft, pliant, and easily damaged. The first speaker reported materials developments that have enabled the fabrication of optoelectronic devices and the design and processing strategies that have advanced their performance. This was followed by a presentation on the mechanics, materials, and biointegration of tissue-like elec- tronics that can conform to and deform with living organisms for physiological sensing and stimulation. The session’s final talk addressed next-generation flexible electrode arrays and optoelectronic neural scaffolds that minimize tissue damage and maintain high-quality neural recordings over longer timescales, which could facilitate monitoring and repair of damaged neural tissues. In addition to the plenary sessions, the attendees had many opportunities for informal interaction. On the first afternoon, they gathered in small groups for “get-acquainted” sessions during which they presented short descriptions of their work and answered questions from their colleagues. This helped them get to know more about each other relatively early in the program. On the second after- noon attendees joined one of six technical tours—on biofuels, bio­ aterials, solar m innovations, tire testing, automotive lightweighting, and performance ­ olymers p c ­ haracterization—at DuPont’s Experimental Station and Chestnut Run Plaza facilities. Every year a distinguished engineer addresses the participants at dinner on the first evening of the symposium. The 2013 speaker was Dr. Douglas Muzyka, senior vice president and chief science and technology officer at DuPont. He provided historical background on the company and described its current focus on integrated science and engineering to develop solutions to challenges in food, energy, and safety of people and the environment. DuPont chair and CEO Ellen Kullman welcomed the group via a video message before Dr. Muzyka’s presentation.

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viii PREFACE The NAE is deeply grateful to the following for their support of the 2013 US Frontiers of Engineering symposium: • DuPont • The Grainger Foundation • Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency • Air Force Office of Scientific Research • Department of Defense ASD(R&E)–Research • National Science Foundation (this material is based on work supported by the NSF under grant number 1305854) • Microsoft Research • Cummins Inc. • Individual contributors We also thank the members of the Symposium Organizing Committee (p. iv), chaired by Dr. Kristi Anseth, for planning and organizing the event.

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Contents DESIGNING AND ANALYZING SOCIETAL NETWORKS Introduction 3 Tanzeem Choudhury and Scott Klemmer Modeling Large-Scale Networks 5 Tony Jebara Crowds, Crisis, and Convergence: Crowdsourcing in the Context of Disasters 11 Kate Starbird Computational Social Science: Exciting Progress and Future Directions 17 Duncan J. Watts COGNITIVE MANUFACTURING Introduction 27 Elizabeth Hoegeman and J. Rhett Mayor Distributed Anomaly Detection for Timely Fault Remediation in Modern Manufacturing 29 Dragan Djurdjanovic Business Process Management Systems to Optimize Manufacturing 45 Christian Will ix

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x CONTENTS The Rise of Computer-Enabled Supply Chain Design 55 Steve Ellet Advancing Sustainable Manufacturing with the Use of Cognitive Agents 61 Steven J. Skerlos ENERGY: REDUCING OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS Introduction 75 Halil Berberoglu and Stuart Thomas Energy from Fossil Fuels: Challenges and Opportunities for Technology Innovation 77 Laura Díaz Anadón Bioenergy Technologies and Strategies: A New Frontier 87 Joyce C. Yang Artificial Solar Fuel Generators 97 Miguel A. Modestino and Rachel A. Segalman FLEXIBLE ELECTRONICS Introduction 111 Yueh-Lin (Lynn) Loo and Tse Nga (Tina) Ng Materials and Process Engineering for Printed and Flexible Optoelectronic Devices 113 Antonio Facchetti Mechanics, Materials, and Functionalities of Biointegrated Electronics 127 Nanshu Lu Biocompatible Materials for Optoelectronic Neural Probes: Challenges and Opportunities 141 Polina Anikeeva APPENDIXES Contributors 159 Program 163 Participants 167