HARNESSING OPERATIONAL
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING TO SUPPORT

PEACEBUILDING


Report of a Workshop by the
National Academy of Engineering and United States Institute of Peace
Roundtable on Technology, Science, and Peacebuilding


Andrew Robertson and Steve Olson, Rapporteurs

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
                                            OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu



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Andrew Robertson and Steve Olson, Rapporteurs UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS   500 Fifth Street, NW   Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: This publication has been reviewed according to procedures approved by the National Academy of Engineering report review process. Publication of signed work signifies that it is judged a competent and useful contribution worthy of public consideration, but it does not imply endorsement of conclusions or recommendations by the National Acad- emy of Engineering. The interpretations and conclusions in such publications are those of the authors and do not purport to present the views of the council, officers, or staff of the National Academy of Engineering. The Roundtable on Technology, Science, and Peacebuilding, the sponsor of the workshop on which this report is based, is supported by funding from the U.S. Department of Defense (JDDM-3663-1), Qualcomm, National Science Foundation (ENG-1136841), U.S. Depart- ment of Agriculture (59-0790-2-058), U.S. Department of State, and CRDF Global. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the workshop participants. International Standard Book Number 13:  978-0-309-29720-2 International Standard Book Number 10:  0-309-29720-6 Copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (888) 624-8373 or (202) 334-3313; online at www.nap. edu. For more information about the National Academy of Engineering, visit the NAE home page at www.nae.edu. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsi- bility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scien- tific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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The United States Institute of Peace is the global conflict management center for the United States. Created by Congress in 1984 to be independent and nonpartisan, the Institute works to prevent, mitigate, and resolve international conflict through nonviolent means. USIP operates in the world’s most challenging conflict zones, and it leads in professional conflict management and peacebuilding by applying innovative tools, convening experts and stake- holders, supporting policymakers, and providing public education. The Institute translates its on-the-ground experience into knowledge, skills, and resources for policymakers, the US military, government and civilian leaders, nongovernmental organizations, practitioners, and citizens both here and abroad. The Institute’s permanent headquarters and conference center are located at the northwest corner of the National Mall in Washington, DC. The facility also houses the Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding and the Global Peacebuilding Center. www.usip.org

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Workshop Steering Committee W. Peter Cherry (Co-chair), Independent Consultant, SAIC (retired) Sam Worthington (Co-chair), President and CEO, InterAction Bernard Amadei, Founder, Engineers Without Borders, Mortenson Chair in Global Engineering, University of Colorado Sharon Morris, Director of Youth and Conflict Management, Mercy Corps Robert Ricigliano, Director, Institute of World Affairs, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee William Rouse, Alexander Crombie Humphreys Chair in Economics of Engineering, Stevens Institute of Technology Staff Geneve Bergeron, Research Assistant, US Institute of Peace Sheldon Himelfarb, Director, US Institute of Peace Greg Pearson, Senior Program Officer, National Academy of Engineering Proctor P. Reid, Director, NAE Program Office Andrew Robertson, Senior Program Officer, US Institute of Peace Frederick S. Tipson, Special Advisor, US Institute of Peace v

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Acknowledgments T his summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies. The purpose of the independent review is to provide candid and critical comments to assist the NAE in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manu- script remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: John Birge, Jerry W. and Carol Lee Levin Professor of Operations Management, Booth School of Business, The University of Chicago Steve Pollock, Professor Emeritus, Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan Francesco Mancini, Senior Director of Research, International Peace Institute Steven H. Dam, President and Founder, SPEC Innovations Hrach Gregorian, President, Institute of World Affairs Lara Olson, Co-Director, Peacebuilding, Development and Security Program and Associate, Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, University of Calgary vii

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viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views expressed in the report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Venkatesh (Venky) Narayanamurti, Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy, Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Science, and director, Science, Technology and Public Policy Program, Harvard Kennedy School. Appointed by NAE, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors and NAE.

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Contents 1 INTRODUCTION AND THEMES OF THE WORKSHOP 1 Organization of the Workshop, 4 Themes of the Workshop, 5 2 CHARACTERISTICS OF PEACEBUILDING 9 Components of Peacebuilding, 10 A Framework for Conflict Assessment, 13 Managing Conflict, 17 Discussion, 20 3 THE POTENTIAL OF OPERATIONAL SYSTEMS ENGINEERING 23 Quantitative Systems Analyses, 23 Qualitative Systems Analyses, 27 Discussion, 31 4 CASE STUDY: ELECTION VIOLENCE IN KENYA 35 A History of Election Violence, 35 Supporting Nonviolent Elections, 38 Breakout Group Discussion, 39 ix

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x CONTENTS 5 CASE STUDY: FOOD SECURITY IN SOUTH SUDAN 41 Food Security and Peacebuilding, 43 Breakout Group Discussion, 45 6 CASE STUDY: POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY IN HAITI 47 Persistent Challenges, 49 Breakout Group Discussion, 52 7 TAKEAWAY MESSAGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR COLLABORATION 55 Takeaway Messages for Peacebuilders, 55 Takeaway Messages for Systems Engineers, 56 Opportunities for Collaboration, 57 Appendixes A Workshop Agenda 59 B Attendees 63