ESTIMATING THE INCIDENCE
OF
RAPE AND SEXUAL ASSAULT

Panel on Measuring Rape and Sexual Assault in
Bureau of Justice Statistics Household Surveys

Candace Kruttschnitt, William D. Kalsbeek, and Carol C. House, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                          OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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Estimating the Incidence of Rape and Sexual Assault Panel on Measuring Rape and Sexual Assault in Bureau of Justice Statistics Household Surveys Candace Kruttschnitt, William D. Kalsbeek, and Carol C. House, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern- ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropri- ate balance. This study was supported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, via grant number SES-1024012 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation. Support for the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (grant number SES-1024012). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-29737-0 International Standard Book Number-10:  0-309-29737-0 Library of Congress Control Number:  2014934964 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2014). Estimating the Incidence of Rape and Sexual Assault. Panel on Measuring Rape and Sexual Assault in Bureau of Justice Statistics Household Surveys, C. Kruttschnitt, W.D. Kalsbeek, and C.C. House, Editors. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Acad- emy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en- gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Coun- cil is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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PANEL ON MEASURING RAPE AND SEXUAL ASSAULT IN BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CANDACE KRUTTSCHNITT (Cochair), Department of Sociology, University of Toronto WILLIAM D. KALSBEEK (Cochair), Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill PAUL P. BIEMER, RTI International and the Odum Institute, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill JOHN BOYLE, ICF International, Rockville, MD BONNIE S. FISHER, School of Criminal Justice, University of Cincinnati KAREN HEIMER, Department of Sociology, University of Iowa LINDA LEDRAY, SANE-SART Resource Service, Minneapolis, MN COLIN LOFTIN, School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, State University of New York RUTH D. PETERSON, Department of Sociology (emerita) and Criminal Justice Research Center, Ohio State University NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin–Madison TOM W. SMITH, NORC at the University of Chicago BRUCE D. SPENCER, Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University CAROL C. HOUSE, Study Director NANCY KIRKENDALL, Senior Program Officer DANIEL L. CORK, Senior Program Officer ESHA SINHA, Associate Program Officer AGNES GASKIN, Administrative Assistant v

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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2012-2013 LAWRENCE D. BROWN (Chair), Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania JOHN M. ABOWD, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University DAVID CARD, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley ALICIA CARRIQUIRY, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Center for Statistical Sciences, Brown University JAMES S. HOUSE, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MICHAEL HOUT, Department of Sociology, New York University SALLIE ANN KELLER, Social and Decision Analytics Lab, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech, Arlington, VA LISA LYNCH, The Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University SALLY C. MORTON, Department of Biostatistics, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh RUTH D. PETERSON, Criminal Justice Research Center, Ohio State University EDWARD H. SHORTLIFFE, Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University and Arizona State University HAL S. STERN, Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Sciences, University of California, Irvine JOHN R. THOMPSON, NORC at the University of Chicago* ROGER TOURANGEAU, Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director JACQUELINE R. SOVDE, Program Associate *Resigned August 2013. vi

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Acknowledgments T he Panel on Measuring Rape and Sexual Assault in Bureau of Jus- tice Statistics Household Surveys was convened in March 2011 by the Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT), with input from the Committee on Law and Justice, under the auspices of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Research Council (NRC). The study sponsor, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of the U.S. Department of Justice, charged the panel to recommend the best methods for obtaining national statistics on rape and sexual assault on an ongoing basis for the noninstitutionalized population of the United States in conjunction with the BJS household surveys. The panel held five in-person meetings to organize its work, gather information, prepare recommendations, and finalize its report. To achieve these goals, the panel relied on a wide range of individuals both within and outside of the NRC and BJS. First, we must acknowledge the outstand- ing contributions of our fellow panel members who brought expertise in survey design, including questionnaire design and interview mode, the National Crime Victimization Survey, and the broader areas of rape and sexual assault and related policies and programs. The panel offers special thanks to Bonnie Fisher and Karen Heimer for their work on Appendix D, and to William Kalsbeek for his work on Appendix E. See Appendix F for biographical sketches of the panel members and project staff. As part of our task, the panel was asked to communicate with the agency contracted by BJS—Westat—to pilot two survey designs that would compare alterna- tive measures of rape and sexual assault. We are grateful to both then BJS director, James Lynch, and BJS senior statistical advisor, Allen Beck, for vii

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viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS facilitating our communications with Westat and for the openness and ca- maraderie shown to us by the director of the Westat project, David Cantor. The panel convened two workshops (December 2011 and June 2012) to gather information from experts on police reports and self-reports of rape and sexual assaults, from consumers of these statistics, and from experts on statistical methods for assessing bias in the estimates of rates of sensitive and rare events. We are indebted to the participants of these two workshops who shared their invaluable knowledge with the panel. (See Appendix B for the workshop agendas and participants.) Some of the individuals who presented at these workshops also prepared written pa- pers, which expanded on the topics they discussed at the workshops. Their papers were very valuable to the panel as we deliberated and prepared our recommendations, and these individuals deserve additional thanks: Ronet Bachman; Jim Chromy and David Wilson; Janet Lauritsen; Ken Rasinski; and Carol Tracy, Jennifer Long, Terry Fromson, and Charlene Whitman. This report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this re- port: Lynn A. Addington, Department of Justice, Law and Society, American University; Kathleen M. Brown, School of Nursing, University of Pennsyl- vania; Dean G. Kilpatrick, National Crime Victims Research and Treat- ment Center, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina; Virginia M. Lesser, Survey Research Center, Department of Statistics, Oregon State University; Nancy A. Mathiowetz, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee; Elizabeth Stasny, Department of Statistics, Ohio State University; Patricia Tjaden, Tjaden Research Corporation, Denver, Colorado; Roger Tourangeau, Ex- ecutive Office, Westat, Rockville, Maryland; and Min Xie, School of Crimi- nology and Criminal Justice, Arizona State University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Richard A. Kulka, independent consultant, Raleigh, North Carolina, and Linda McCauley, Nell Hodgson Woodruff School of Nursing, Emory University. Appointed by the NRC’s Report Review Committee, they were responsible for mak-

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix ing certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this re- port rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution. However, the panel gratefully acknowledges that its report is more complete and its points made more clearly because of questions asked and suggestions made by the individuals who participated in this review. The panel also recognizes that its work was greatly facilitated by many NRC staff members. Connie Citro, director of CNSTAT, attended all of our meetings and workshops and provided invaluable expertise through- out the duration of our deliberations. Daniel Cork, senior program officer with CNSTAT, also provided us with critical information that allowed us to link our work with the broader assessment of BJS that was conducted in 2008 and 2009. Esha Sinha, associate program officer, prepared early drafts of several sections of the report. Nancy Kirkendall, senior program officer with CNSTAT, assisted the panel in arranging for several commis- sioned papers. The panel’s study director, Carol House, was invaluable to the panel. From the outset, she was a critical conduit to Westat and BJS and outside reports and information essential to the panel’s deliberations. In addition to keeping the panel’s work on track, Carol’s own professional background in survey statistics enabled her to capably serve as a bridge to connect the various expertise among the panel members. The panel also wants to thank the three other members of the CNSTAT staff who worked with the panel to facilitate its meetings and workshops: Agnes Gaskin, Alicia Jaramillo-Underwood, and Anthony Mann. Finally we recognize the many federal agencies that support CNSTAT directly and through a grant from the National Science Foundation. With- out their support and commitment to improving the national statistical system, the panel work that is the basis of this report would not have been possible. Candace Kruttschnitt and William D. Kalsbeek, Cochairs Panel on Measuring Rape and Sexual Assault in Bureau of Justice Statistics Household Surveys

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 15 Study Context, 16 Panel Charge and Activities, 17 Report Overview, 20 2 LEGAL DEFINITIONS AND CONTEXT 23 Historical Context, 23 Overview of State Statutes, 25 Conclusion, 33 3 DATA FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES 35 Police Reports, 35 UCR Reports, 40 4 NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY 49 History and Development, 50 Target Population and Sample Design, 52 Data Collection and Survey Mode, 59 Survey Instruments, 59 Estimation and Products, 63 xi

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xii CONTENTS 5 SELECTED OTHER SURVEYS ON RAPE AND SEXUAL ASSAULT 71 National Women’s Study (1989-1991), 72 National Violence Against Women Study (1995-1996), 75 National College Women Sexual Victimization Study (1997), 78 National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey (2010), 84 6 COMPARISON OF RAPE AND SEXUAL ASSAULT ACROSS DATA SOURCES 91 Definitions Used, 92 Survey Context, 95 Target Population, Sampling Frames, and Sample Size, 96 Data Collection Mode and Response Rates, 99 Measures of Rape and Sexual Assault, 102 7 POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERROR IN THE NCVS: SAMPLING, FRAME, AND PROCESSING 109 Sampling Error, 110 Frame Error, 122 Processing Error, 124 8 POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERROR: NONRESPONSE, SPECIFICATION, AND MEASUREMENT 127 Nonresponse Error, 127 Specification Error, 136 Measurement Error, 138 9 SYNOPSIS OF POTENTIAL ERRORS IN THE NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY 153 Potential Sources of Error: Summary, 154 Obstacles to High-Quality Estimates, 155 General Recommendations, 158 10  NEW DIRECTIONS FOR MEASURING RAPE AND SEXUAL ASSAULT 161 A New Survey to Measure Rape and Sexual Assault, 162 Specialized Training and Monitoring, 175 Research, 176 Communication with Data Users, 177 Wrap-Up, 180 REFERENCES 183

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CONTENTS xiii APPENDIXES A Need for the Study 193 B Workshop and Public Meetings: Agendas and Participants 197 C Links to Questionnaires of the National Crime Victimization Survey 205 D Selected Surveys Measuring Rape: An Overview 207 E Statistical Rationale Behind Some Initial Findings on the Relative Statistical Plausibility of a Multiple-Frame Approach to Estimating the Victimization Rate of Rape and Sexual Assault 247 F Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff 257

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