A

Sales and Purchases of Goods and Services Between Americans and Foreigners

The first part of this appendix describes the exchange relationships that exist between various groups of Americans and foreigners and discusses how they can be estimated; the second presents a more detailed set of estimates of net sales of goods and services by Americans to foreigners than that in Chapter 1 and discusses the various aspects of these estimates.

EXCHANGE RELATIONSHIPS

Figure A-1 is a diagram of major exchange relationships between Americans and foreigners. As shown in the diagram, Americans and foreigners can be grouped by their locations. In the United States, these include: (1) U.S. affiliates of foreign firms located in the United States, (2) U.S.-owned firms in the United States, (3) households of U.S. citizens and U.S. government units in the United States, and (4) households of foreign citizens living in the United States. In foreign countries, these include: (5) foreign affiliates of U.S. firms located abroad, (6) foreign-owned firms located abroad, (7) households of foreign citizens abroad and foreign government units abroad, and (8) households of U.S. citizens living abroad. In

This appendix was prepared by panel chair Robert E. Baldwin. He appreciates the assistance of study director Anne Y. Kester and Fukunari Kimura, assistant professor, State University of New York at Stonybrook.



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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy A Sales and Purchases of Goods and Services Between Americans and Foreigners The first part of this appendix describes the exchange relationships that exist between various groups of Americans and foreigners and discusses how they can be estimated; the second presents a more detailed set of estimates of net sales of goods and services by Americans to foreigners than that in Chapter 1 and discusses the various aspects of these estimates. EXCHANGE RELATIONSHIPS Figure A-1 is a diagram of major exchange relationships between Americans and foreigners. As shown in the diagram, Americans and foreigners can be grouped by their locations. In the United States, these include: (1) U.S. affiliates of foreign firms located in the United States, (2) U.S.-owned firms in the United States, (3) households of U.S. citizens and U.S. government units in the United States, and (4) households of foreign citizens living in the United States. In foreign countries, these include: (5) foreign affiliates of U.S. firms located abroad, (6) foreign-owned firms located abroad, (7) households of foreign citizens abroad and foreign government units abroad, and (8) households of U.S. citizens living abroad. In This appendix was prepared by panel chair Robert E. Baldwin. He appreciates the assistance of study director Anne Y. Kester and Fukunari Kimura, assistant professor, State University of New York at Stonybrook.

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy FIGURE A-1 International and national exchange relationships. the diagram the point of the arrowhead > indicates the direction of trade between trading units and the solid and dashed lines represent trade flows between trading units of different national ownership and the same national ownership, respectively. We first consider the sales of goods and services to foreign-owned firms, private foreign citizens within and outside of the United States, and foreign governments by U.S.-owned firms, U.S. government units, and private U.S. citizens in the United States and abroad. These are the sum of the trade flows between the following trading units: 2>1, 2>4, 3>1, 3>4, 2>6, 2>7, 3>6, 3>7, 5>6, 5>7, 8>6, 8>7, 5>1, 5>4, 8>1, and 8>4. These exchange flows are the sum of three components: the cross-border sales of goods and services by U.S.-owned firms, the U.S. government, and private U.S. citizens located in the United States to foreign-owned firms, foreign governments, and foreign citizens located abroad, namely, 2>6, 2>7, 3>6, and 3>7;

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy sales of goods and services by U.S.-owned firms, U.S. government units, and private U.S. citizens located in the United States to foreign-owned firms and foreign citizens located within the United States, namely, 2>1, 2>4, 3>1, and 3>4; and sales of goods and services by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms and private U.S. citizens located abroad to U.S. affiliates of foreign firms and foreign citizens in the United States and to foreign-owned firms, foreign governments, and foreign private citizens located abroad, namely, 5>1, 5>4, 5>6, 5>7, 8>1, 8>4, 8>6, and 8>7. The first of these components, (A), can be estimated by taking U.S. exports, the sum of 1>5, 1>6, 1>7, 1>8, 2>5, 2>6, 2>7, 2>8, 3>5, 3>6, 3>7, 3>8, 4>5, 4>6, 4>7, and 4>8, and subtracting both U.S. exports to foreign affiliates of U.S. companies, the sum 1>5, 2>5, 3>5 and, 4>5, and U.S. exports shipped by U.S. affiliates of foreign companies, the sum 1>5, 1>6, 1>7, and 1>8. This net figure is the sum of 2>6, 2>7, 2>8, 3>6, 3>7, 3>8, 4>6, 4>7, and 4>8 minus 1>5. Thus, the approximation exceeds the desired figure by 2>8, 3>8, 4>6, 4>7, and 4>8, minus 1>5. These latter figures are likely to be fairly small in comparison with the total trade of this component. No direct information is available on the second component, (B). However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has estimated local purchases of goods and services by U.S. affiliates of foreign firms by subtracting estimates of factor incomes earned in U.S. affiliates of foreign firms and inputs of goods and services of these U.S. affiliates from their sales and their change in inventory (see Lowe, 1990). It is not possible to subtract purchases from other related or unrelated U.S. affiliates of foreign firms from these local purchases to obtain local purchases just from U.S.-owned firms, since BEA does not collect purchases by U.S. affiliates from related U.S. affiliates (presumably because they are not large) nor from unrelated U.S. affiliates. There is some interest in knowing purchases from related U.S. affiliates, but attempts to gather data on purchases from unrelated U.S. affiliates does not seem worth the effort that would be required. The third component, (C), can be estimated by taking the total sales of foreign affiliates of U.S. companies, the sum of 5>5, 5>6, 5>7, 5>8, 5>1, 5>2, 5>3, and 5>4, and subtracting sales to the United States by foreign affiliates of U.S. companies, the sum of 5>1, 5>2, 5>3, and 5>4, and sales to other foreign affiliates of U.S. companies abroad, 5>5. This calculation yields the sum of 5>6,

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy 5>7, and 5>8, which is greater than the desired figure by 5>8 but less than it by the sum of 5>1, 5>4, 8>1, 8>4, 8>6, and 8>7. The differences between the desired and actual figures are not likely to be large. We next consider purchases of goods and services from foreign-owned firms abroad and in the United States, foreign governments, and households of foreign citizens within and outside of the United States by U.S.-owned firms in the United States and abroad, the U.S. government, and households of U.S. citizens in the United States and abroad. In terms of the diagram, these purchases are the sum of trade between the following trading units: 1>2, 1>3, 4>2, 4>3, 6>2, 6>3, 7>2, 7>3, 6>5, 7>5, 6>8, 7>8, 4>5, 1>5, 1>8, and 4>8. These purchases can be represented as the sum of three components: cross-border purchases of goods and services by U.S.-owned firms, the U.S. government, and private U.S. citizens in the United States from foreign firms, foreign governments, and foreign citizens outside of the United States, namely 6>2, 7>2, 6>3, and 7>3; purchases of goods and services by U.S.-owned firms, the U.S. government, and U.S. citizens in the United States from U.S. affiliates of foreign companies and foreign citizens located in the United States, namely 1>2, 1>3, 4>2, and 4>3; and purchases of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms and U.S. citizens abroad from foreign firms, foreign governments, and foreign citizens abroad and purchases from U.S. affiliates of foreign firms and foreign citizens in the United States, namely 6>5, 7>5, 1>5, 4>5, 7>8, 6>8, 1>8, and 4>8. The first of these components, (D), can be estimated by taking U.S. imports, the sum of 5>1, 5>2, 5>3, 5>4, 6>1, 6>2, 6>3, 6>4, 7>1, 7>2, 7>3, 7>4, 8>1, 8>2, 8>3, and 8>4, and subtracting both U.S. imports from foreign affiliates of U.S. companies, the sum of 5>1, 5>2, 5>3, and 5>4, and U.S. imports shipped to U.S. affiliates of foreign companies, the sum of 5>1, 6>1, 7>1, and 8>1. This calculation yields the sum of 6>2, 6>3, 6>4, 7>2, 7>3, 7>4, 8>2, 8>3, 8>4, minus 5>1, which exceeds the desired figure by 6>4, 7>4, 8>2, 8>3, and 8>4, minus 5>1. It does not seem that these differences will be large. The second component, (E), can be estimated by taking the total sales of U.S. affiliates of foreign companies, the sum of l>l, 1>2, 1>3, 1>4, 1>5, 1>6, 1>7, and 1>8, and subtracting U.S. exports shipped by U.S. affiliates of foreign companies, the sum of 1>5,

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy 1>6, 1>7, and 1>8, and purchases from other U.S. affiliates of foreign firms, 1>1. This calculation yields the sum of 1>2, 1>3, and 1>4. The proper number should not include 1>4, but should include 4>2 and 4>3. No direct published information is available for (F). BEA apparently has the information necessary to estimate the local purchases of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad in the same manner it estimates the local purchases of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States, but there has been less interest in obtaining data on local purchases of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms. Using data from the benchmark survey of U.S. direct investment abroad, a related method of estimating (F) is to subtract from the cost of goods and services sold by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms the sum of U.S. exports shipped to foreign affiliates of U.S. firms, purchases from related foreign affiliates of U.S. firms, and employee compensation and other direct factor payments by these firms. However, the resulting figure incorrectly excludes U.S. exports shipped to foreign affiliates of U.S. firms by U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States and incorrectly includes purchases from unrelated foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad. AN ESTIMATE OF NET SALES OF GOODS AND SERVICES BY AMERICANS TO FOREIGNERS IN 1987 Table A-1 provides estimates of sales and purchases of goods and services by Americans from foreigners for 1987. Because of the difficulty of obtaining sales and purchases data on households of U.S. citizens living abroad and households of foreign citizens living in the United States, households are classified on a country-of-residency basis, as in the balance-of-payments accounts. That is, households of private foreign citizens in the United States (not employed by foreign governments) are combined with households of U.S. citizens living in the United States and the U.S. government and regarded as an American unit. (However, as in the balance-of-payments accounts, households of foreign residents living in the United States who are employed by foreign governments are regarded as residents of the country of that government.) Similarly, households of private U.S. citizens living abroad (not employed by the U.S. government) are combined with households of foreign citizens living abroad and foreign governments and regarded as a foreign unit. (Households of U.S. citizens abroad who work for the U.S. government are, however, as in the balance-of-payments accounts, regarded as U.S. residents.)

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy TABLE A–1 Net Sales of Goods and Services by Americans to Foreigners, 1987 (in millions of dollars) Transaction Amount I. Cross-Border Sales to and Purchases from Foreigners by Americansa     Exports to foreigners     + U.S. exports of merchandise and services 335,765   − U.S. exports to foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad 87,286   − U.S. exports shipped by U.S. affiliates of foreign firms 51,843   Total 196,636   Imports from foreigners     + U.S. imports of merchandise and services 483,933   − U.S. imports from foreign affiliates of U.S. firms 75,986   − U.S. imports shipped to U.S. affiliates of foreign firms 143,767   Total 264,180   Net cross-border sales to foreigners −67,544 II. Sales and Purchases by Foreign Affiliates of U.S. Firmsb     Sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms     + Sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad 815,541   − Sales among foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad 125,107   − Sales to the United States by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms 88,923   Total 601,511   Local purchases abroad by foreign affiliates of U.S. firmsc 359,076   Net sales to foreigners by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms 242,435 III. Value-Added Abroad by Foreign Affiliates of U.S. Firms     + Sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms 815,541   − Local purchases abroad by foreign affiliates 359,076   − Imported goods and services 87,286   − Purchases from other foreign affiliates of U.S. firms 125,107   Total 244,072   Foreign content of foreign affiliate sales (244,072 + 359,076 + 125,107) 728,255 IV. U.S. Sales to and Purchases from U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Firms d     U.S. sales to U.S. affiliates of foreign firmse 440,391   U.S. purchases from U.S. affiliates of foreign firms     + Sales by U.S. affiliates of foreign firms 731,392   − Sales among U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the U.S. n.a.   − U.S. exports shipped by U.S. affiliates of foreign firms 51,843   Total 679,549   Net U.S. sales to U.S. affiliates of foreign firms −239,158 V. Value-Added in the U.S. by U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Firmsf     + Sales of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Firms 731,392   − Purchases within the United States by foreign affiliates 440,391   − Imported goods and services 143,767   − Purchases from other U.S. affiliates of foreign firms n.a.   + Inventory changes 4,671   Total 151,905   Local content of U.S. affiliate sales (151,905 + 440,391) 592,296 VI. Net Sales by Americans to Foreigners −64,267

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy aData of U.S. merchandise exports and imports are on the calendar basis; data on direct investment are reported on the financial year basis. bData on foreign affiliates of U.S. firms for goods cover only those firms for which the combined U.S. ownership of U.S. firms is 50 percent or more, that is, only majority-owned affiliates are covered. cThis rough estimate of local purchases from foreigners by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms was made as follows: employee compensation (105,452); depreciation, depletion, and production royalty payments (28,231); purchases from other foreign affiliates of U.S. firms (110,606); and U.S. exports shipped to foreign affiliates of U.S. firms (74,907). These figures were subtracted from the cost of goods sold by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms (629,137) to give a figure for local purchases of goods from foreigners of (309,941). These data are from Bureau of Economic Analysis (1990a,b). Local purchases of services from foreigners was obtained by applying the ratio of total purchases of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms by the finance, insurance, and services sectors to the total sales of these sectors, namely, 0.78 (as calculated from Lowe (1990), to the total sales of services by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms (97,455) (as reported in DiLullo and Whichard, 1990) to give a total purchases estimate of 76,015. Imports of services from the United States (12,379) (see DiLullo and Whichard, 1990:Table 2) and purchases from other foreign affiliates of U.S. firms (14,501) (see DiLullo and Whichard, 1990:Table 11) are then subtracted from the total purchases figure to give 49,135 for local purchases of services from foreigners. Adding this to the goods figure yields a total for goods and services of about 359,076. dData on goods from U.S. affiliates of foreign firms, unlike those on foreign affiliates of U.S. firms, cover firms for which ownership by a single person or firm is 10 percent or more. eThis figure is somewhat lower than the figure estimated by Lowe (1990) since, as the author states, his estimate is overstated by the inclusion of purchases of services from foreigners. The later paper by DiLullo and Whichard (1990) includes an estimate for such imports and this estimate is used to revise the Lowe estimate. fThese data are from the Lowe article. However, the local purchases and import figures have been modified to take into account the figure on imports of services available from DiLullo and Whichard (1990). SOURCES: Data on merchandise exports and imports are from the Economic Report of the President. Data on cross-border trade in services is from DiLullo and Whichard (1990). Data on sales and purchases of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms are from the 1987 benchmark survey (Bureau of Economic Analysis [1990a,b]) and DiLullo and Whichard (1990). Data on sales and purchases of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms are from Lowe (1990), DiLullo and Whichard (1990), and Bureau of Economic Analysis (1990a,b).

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy The focus is on identifying the cross-border selling and purchasing activities of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad and U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States. Thus, the term “Americans, ” as used here, consists of U.S.-owned firms in the United States and abroad, households of U.S. and private foreign citizens residing in the United States (U.S.-resident households), and U.S. government units. The term “foreigners,” as used here, consists of foreign-owned firms in the United States and abroad, households of foreign and U.S. citizens residing abroad (foreign-resident households), and foreign governments. Table A-1 reveals the high degree of internationalization of the American economy. Although the cross-border sales of goods and services by U.S. residents to foreign residents (Part I of the table) in 1987 felt short of the cross-border purchases from foreign residents by $148 billion ($336 billion − $484 billion) in 1987, the difference declines to −$67 billion ($197 billion − $264 billion) when the cross-border trade of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States and the cross-border trade of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad are excluded.1 As Part II of the table indicates, net sales of goods and services by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms located abroad exceeded local purchases by these firms abroad by $242 billion in 1987. At the same time, net purchases by Americans of goods and services from U.S.-based affiliates of foreign firms exceeded sales of goods and services to these firms (Part IV of the table) by $239 billion. Consequently, the balance of these three accounts—net sales by Americans to foreigners —shows a balance (an excess of purchases) of −$64 billion. This is less than one-half of the trade deficit in that year. 1   This figure is only an approximation. As pointed out above, in calculating cross-border sales of Americans to foreigners, exports of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms to foreign affiliates of U.S. firms are included in both figures and subtracted from total exports and thus are incorrectly subtracted twice instead of only once. Similarly, in calculating cross-border sales of foreigners to unaffiliated Americans, U.S. imports from foreign affiliates of U.S. firms going to U.S. affiliates of foreign firms are incorrectly subtracted twice. More important, all data on goods of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms refer to majority-owned foreign affiliates (firms in which the sum of ownership interest of individual firms or persons, each of which has at least 10 percent of ownership interest, exceeds 50 percent), but data on U.S. affiliates of foreign firms refer to any firm in which there is at least a 10 percent or more foreign ownership interest by a single firm or persons. Data for majority-owned U.S. affiliates of foreign firms are not published.

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy The activities of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms and U.S. affiliates of foreign firms can be better understood by considering various components of the three accounts. Sales of goods and services by affiliates of U.S. firms located abroad (the first item in Part II) exceeded sales by U.S. affiliates of foreign firms (the second item in Part IV) in 1987 by $85 billion ($816 billion − $731 billion). However, as the other components of these two accounts indicate, sales among foreign affiliates of U.S. firms located abroad ($125 billion) plus sales of these foreign affiliates to the United States ($89 billion) are considerably larger than sales among U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States (data not available) plus export sales of these U.S. affiliates to foreign countries ($52 billion). Consequently, net sales to Americans in the United States (purchases in the United States) by U.S. affiliates of foreign firms ($680 billion) (see Part IV) exceeded net sales to foreigners abroad by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms ($602 billion) (see Part II) by $78 billion.2 However, Americans sell more goods and services to U.S.-based affiliates of foreign firms than foreigners sell to foreign-based affiliates of U.S. firms: $440 billion and $359 billion, respectively (a rough estimate). This $81 billion excess of sales of goods and services by Americans to U.S.-based affiliates of foreign firms over sales of goods and services by foreigners to foreign-based affiliates of U.S. firms more than offsets the $78 billion shortfall of net sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms, compared with net sales in the United States of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms. Consequently, the difference of $3 billion is subtracted from the $67 billion shortfall of cross-border trade to give the $64 billion negative balance of net sales of Americans to foreigners. As noted in the body of the report, the value added by U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States to the U.S. gross 2   The $602 billion figure incorrectly excludes sales of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad to U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States, and the $680 billion figure incorrectly includes the sales of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms to other affiliated and unaffiliated foreign-owned companies in the United States. BEA collects data on sales of foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad to other affiliates of these firms, but it does not collect data on the sales of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States to other affiliates of these firms; presumably, the number is small. It is probably not worthwhile to try to collect data on sales of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States to unaffiliated foreign-owned firms in the United States. Thus, data on sales of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the United States will, at best, include sales to unaffiliated foreign-owned firms in the United States, as well as to U.S.-owned firms in the United States.

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS: U.S. Trade in the World Economy domestic product and the local content of sales of U.S. affiliates of foreign firms can be calculated from the various components of the sales and purchases figures: they are shown in Part V of the table. Part III contains estimates of the value added to the gross domestic product of foreign countries by foreign affiliates of U.S. firms abroad and the foreign content of the sales of these firms.