2013-2014

ASSESSMENT OF THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY:
INTERIM REPORT

Army Research Laboratory Technical Assessment Board

Laboratory Assessments Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                         OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu



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2013-2014 ASSESSMENT OF THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY: INTERIM REPORT Army Research Laboratory Technical Assessment Board Laboratory Assessments Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the authoring board responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. DAAD17-03-C-0017 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Army Research Laboratory. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-29985-5 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-29985-3 Copies of this report are available from Laboratory Assessments Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT BOARD R. BYRON PIPES, NAE, 1 Purdue University, Chair KENNETH R. BOFF, Socio-Technical Sciences EPHRAHIM GARCIA, Cornell University GEORGE (RUSTY) T. GRAY III, Los Alamos National Laboratory PRABHAT HAJELA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute JENNIE S. HWANG, NAE, H-Technologies Group Staff LIZA HAMILTON, Administrative Coordinator EVA LABRE, Program Associate JAMES P. McGEE, Director ARUL MOZHI, Senior Program Officer PANEL ON BALLISTICS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY GEORGE (RUSTY) T. GRAY III, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair* MELVIN R. BAER, Sandia National Laboratories* RELVA C. BUCHANAN, University of Cincinnati ELIZABETH A. HOLM, Carnegie Mellon University* MICHAEL JAFFE, New Jersey Institute of Technology* BERNARD H. KEAR, NAE, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey* JERRY A. KRILL, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory* WILLIAM S. MARRAS, NAE, Ohio State University GARY L. MESSING, Pennsylvania State University* ALAN NEEDLEMAN, NAE, University of North Texas* FRANK J. SERNA, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory* LESLIE E. SMITH, National Institute of Standards and Technology (retired) * WILLIAM E. SNOWDEN, System Planning Corporation* STEVEN F. SON, Purdue University EDWIN L. THOMAS, NAE, Rice University DONNA K. VARGAS, Independent Consultant* DAVID A. WEITZ, NAS, 2 Harvard University PANEL ON HUMAN FACTORS SCIENCE AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY KENNETH R. BOFF, Socio-Technical Sciences, Chair* LINDA NG BOYLE, University of Washington JEROME BUSEMEYER, Indiana University, Bloomington W. PETER CHERRY, NAE, Independent Consultant (formerly with Vector Research, Inc.) * NANCY J. COOKE, Arizona State University* CAROLINA CRUZ-NEIRA, University of Louisiana, Lafayette* * Asterisks denote members who participated in the 2013 meeting. 1 Member of the National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member of the National Academy of Sciences. v

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PAMELA H. DALTON, Monell Chemical Senses Center* BARBARA A. DOSHER, NAS, 1 University of California, Irvine* HOWARD EGETH, Johns Hopkins University* PAUL W. GLIMCHER, New York University* NICHOLAS HATSOPOULOS, University of Chicago* ALBERT I. KING, NAE, 2 Wayne State University, Tsinghua University, China JOHN LACH, University of Virginia* MARGARET L. LOPER, Georgia Tech Research Institute* GEORGE E. LUKES, Institute for Defense Analyses* ROBERT A. LUTFI, University of Wisconsin-Madison* JEAN MacMILLAN, Aptima, Inc.* ANN C. McKEE, Boston University School of Medicine* J. ANTHONY MOVSHON, NAS, New York University* MATTHEW S. PETERSON, George Mason University* STEPHEN F. SANDS, Sands Research, Inc. * BARBARA G. SHINN-CUNNINGHAM, Boston University* D. LYNN SMITH-LOVIN, Duke University BRIAN A. WANDELL, NAS, Stanford University* MARY C. WHITTON, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill* PANEL ON INFORMATION SCIENCE AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY PRABHAT HAJELA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Chair* JEAN M. ANDINO, Arizona State University DAVID W. AUCSMITH, Microsoft Corporation ALFRED O. AWANI, New York Life* KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, Carnegie Mellon University WILLIAM R. CHESWICK, Independent Consultant MARK E. DEAN, NAE, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center KELVIN DROEGEMEIER, University of Oklahoma VERLIN B. HINSZ, North Dakota State University JAMES T. KAJIYA, NAE, Microsoft Corporation GEORGE KARYPIS, University of Minnesota JOHN M. LANICCI, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University ROBERT A.K. MITCHELL, NAE, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems (retired) DEBASIS MITRA, NAE, Columbia University A. STEPHEN MORSE, NAE, Yale University RANDOLPH L. MOSES, Ohio State University LINDA A. NESS, Applied Communication Sciences Applied Research (formerly Telcordia) LYNNE E. PARKER, University of Tennessee, Knoxville* AROGYASWAMI J. PAULRAJ, NAE, Stanford University RADIA PERLMAN, Intel Labs H. VINCENT POOR, NAE/NAS, Princeton University PADMA RAGHAVAN, Pennsylvania State University* ARMANDO A. RODRIGUEZ, Arizona State University* * Asterisks denote members who participated in the 2013 meeting. 1 Member of the National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member of the National Academy of Engineering. vi

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NELSON L. SEAMAN, Pennsylvania State University (retired) JULIE A. SHAH, Massachusetts Institute of Technology* NEIL G. SIEGEL, NAE, 1 Northrop Grumman Information Systems GURINDAR S. SOHI, NAE, University of Wisconsin-Madison SALVATORE J. STOLFO, Columbia University STEVEN J. WALLACH, NAE, Convey Computer Corporation MARILYN M. WOLFSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology HOLLY YANCO, University of Massachusetts, Lowell* DUSAN S. ZRNIC, NAE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PANEL ON MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY JENNIE S. HWANG, NAE, H-Technologies Group, Chair* RICHARD C. ALKIRE, NAE, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign* MICHAEL BASKES, NAE, Los Alamos National Laboratory ELI BROOKNER, Raytheon Company* CHARLES R. CANTOR, NAS, 2 Sequenom, Inc. STUART L. COOPER, NAE, Ohio State University* DANA D. DLOTT, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign AMY E. DUWEL, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory HORACIO D. ESPINOSA, Northwestern University MICHAEL ETTENBERG, NAE, Dolce Technologies* ELSA M. GARMIRE, NAE, Dartmouth College* JAMES S. HARRIS, NAE, Stanford University* THOMAS L. KOCH, NAE, University of Arizona* CHRISTIAN MAILHIOT, Washington State University CHRIS A. MARIANETTI, Columbia University* MARC A. MEYERS, University of California, San Diego* SORIN MITRAN, University of North Carolina DUNCAN T. MOORE, NAE, University of Rochester* KRISHNA RAJAN, Iowa State University JORGE J. SANTIAGO-AVILES, University of Pennsylvania MICHAEL G. SPENCER, Cornell University* MATTHEW V. TIRRELL, NAE, University of Chicago MARK W. VERBRUGGE, NAE, General Motors Co. ANIL V. VIRKAR, NAE, University of Utah* TUAN VO-DINH, Duke University* LARRY P. WALKER, Cornell University* PANEL ON MECHANICAL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY EPHRAHIM GARCIA, Cornell University* DENNIS N. ASSANIS, NAE, State University of New York, Stony Brook * Asterisks denote members who participated in the 2013 meeting. 1 Member of the National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member of the National Academy of Sciences. vii

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FU-KUO CHANG, Stanford University ADITI CHATTOPADHYAY, Arizona State University JAMES HAMILTON, Target Chip Ganassi Racing WESLEY L. HARRIS, NAE, 1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology* JOHN KIM, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles ROGER L. McCARTHY, NAE, McCarthy Engineering WILLIAM Q. MEEKER, JR., Iowa State University PARVIZ MOIN, NAS/NAE, Stanford University DAVID A. PETERS, Washington University* KENNETH M. ROSEN, NAE, Aero-Science Technology Associates, LLC* JAYANT S. SABNIS, Pratt & Whitney WILLIAM A. SIRIGNANO, NAE, University of California, Irvine* EDWARD C. SMITH, Pennsylvania State University TOMMIE L. WOOD, Bell Helicopter Textron * Asterisks denote members who participated in the 2013 meeting. 1 Member of the National Academy of Engineering. viii

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Ross B. Corotis, NAE, University of Colorado, Boulder, J. Dexter Fletcher, Institute for Defense Analyses, Alastair M. Glass, NAE, Tyndall National Institute, Richard M. Murray, NAE, California Institute of Technology, Michael Posner, NAS/IOM, University of Oregon, Edgar A. Starke, Jr., NAE, University of Virginia, and Dwight C. Streit, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Louis J. Lanzerotti, NAE, New Jersey Institute of Technology. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring board and the institution. ix

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 10 The Biennial Assessment Process, 10 Preparation and Organization of This Report, 11 Assessment Criteria, 12 Approach Taken During Report Preparation, 13 Report Content, 13 2 BALLISTICS SCIENCES: TERMINAL BALLISTICS 14 Introduction, 14 Accomplishments and Advancements, 14 Opportunities and Challenges, 23 Overall Technical Quality of the Work, 30 3 HUMAN SCIENCES: SIMULATION AND TRAINING TECHNOLOGY 32 Introduction, 32 Accomplishments and Advancements, 33 Opportunities and Challenges, 33 Overall Technical Quality of the Work, 43 4 HUMAN SCIENCES: TRANSLATIONAL NEUROSCIENCE 45 Introduction, 45 Accomplishments and Advancements, 45 Opportunities and Challenges, 47 Overall Technical Quality of the Work, 50 5 INFORMATION SCIENCES: AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS 51 Introduction, 51 Accomplishments and Advancements, 51 Opportunities and Challenges, 54 Overall Technical Quality of the Work, 57 6 MATERIALS SCIENCES: BIOMATERIALS, ENERGY MATERIALS AND DEVICES, 58 AND PHOTONIC MATERIALS AND DEVICES Introduction, 58 Accomplishments and Advancements, 60 Opportunities and Challenges, 67 Overall Technical Quality of the Work, 69 7 CROSSCUTTING RECOMMENDATIONS 71 xi

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APPENDIXES A Army Research Laboratory Organization Chart 75 B Biographical Sketches of Army Research Laboratory Technical Assessment Board Members 76 and Staff C Assessment Criteria 80 D Acronyms 82 xii