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PERSPECTIVE ON ENGINEERING MANPOWER Patrick J. Sheridan Manager, Manpower Activities American Association of Engineering Societies I would like to thank Dr. Stever and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Research Council for the opportunity to speak at your workshop this afternoon. Perhaps it might be well for me to take a moment to say a few words about the American Association of Engineering Societies, the parent organization of the Engineering Manpower Commission. AAES, as it is now known in the alphabetical jargon of engineering societies, came into existence in December l979. It has a membership of some 38 engineering societies with a membership of more than 650,000 professional engineers. Its predecessor organization was the Engineers Joint Council. AAES is made up of four councils. They are known as the Educational Affairs Council, the International Affairs Council, the Public Affairs Council, and the Engineering Affairs Council. The Educational Affairs Council is concerned with such things as guidance for young people who are interested in studying engineering, continuing education for experienced engineers, engineering and technical education, and maintaining liaison between the engineering societies and the Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology (ABET). The International Affairs Council is concerned with the coordination and communication of international activities and works with groups such as the Pan American Federation of Engineering Societies, the World Federation of Engineering Organizations, the World Energy Conference, and the U.S. Committee on Large Dams. The Public Affairs Council is concerned with establishing a Washington presence on behalf of its member societies. It is also responsible for developing engineering information relevant to current public issues. The coordinating committee on energy is part of the Public Affairs Council. 43

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The Engineering Affairs Council through the Engineering Manpower Commission is concerned with the adequacy of engineering manpower to meet national goals. The Engineering Manpower Commission through survey programs furnishes information on education, placement, demand, and compensation of engineers and technologists. The Engineering Affairs Council is also responsible for maintaining and publishing the guidelines to professional employment for engineers and scientists. The Engineering Practices Information Center (EPIC) is part of the Engineering Affairs Council. EPIC monitors legislation affecting engineering in every state of the United States and alerts subscribers with pertinent information concerning this legislation. The Engineering Affairs Council is aiso responsible for publishing Who's Who in Engineering. This publication is revised every two years and consists of a listing of engineers who have distinguished themselves by their contribution to engineering technology. I would now like to discuss with you some of the studies conducted by the Engineering Manpower Commission and then review some of our most recent findings. Each year after the September enrollment, the Engineering Manpower Commission conducts a survey of the engineering and technology schools in the United States to determine the level of enrollment and the engineering and technology disciplines In which the new students have enrolled. These data are further broken down by women and minority students. The data are presented by schools on the basis of graduate and undergraduate programs. Accreditation data by program are also presented. In June of each year we do a survey of the same schools to determine the number of graduates and the programs from which they graduated. The breakdown is similar to that of the enrollment survey and is presented on the basis of school, by women and minority, and by curriculum. Every two years the Engineering Manpower Commission conducts a salary survey of professional engineers. This includes all engineers in industry, education, and government with a four-year degree in engineering. The data are presented on the basts of maturity—years since B.S. degree—and are further broken down by supervisory status and degree level, such as bachelors, masters, or Ph.D.s. Groupings are also presented on the basis of industry type; state, local, and federal government; and by academically employed engineers on the basis of 9- or l2-month contracts. The Engineering Manpower Commission has, over the years, published manpower bulletins summarizing the results of its various surveys and presenting other items of information to the engineering community. These are distributed on a subscription basis to engineers and engineering employers who are interested. I would now like to review with you some manpower history based on the studies taken over the years by the Engineering Manpower Commission. We will also look at the latest manpower information available, which in most cases is that from the l979 studies. We are now in the process of collecting data for l980, but this information will not be available until sometime in October. The data that you are about to see, for the most part, are general information covering

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all engineering disciplines. Where possible we have isolated aerospace engineering to give you a specific feel of how this relates to the overall engineering picture. Figure l shows total engineering undergraduate enrollment. In l979 this amounted to some 340,488 undergraduate students enrolled in 280 schools that award a bachelors or higher degree in engineering. This represents a 9 percent increase over those enrolled in l978 and an 82 percent increase over those enrolled in l973. Both women and minorities increased 2l percent over l978 enrollments. Comparing this with the overall increase in enrollments of 9 percent indicates that wo.nen and minorities are now getting a greater share of engineering enrollments. Of the 340,488 enrollments, 9656 students were enrolled in aerospace engineering programs. This represents a 2l percent increase over l978, when the aerospace enrollment was 7949 students. So, we might say that things are looking up Ln aerospace engineering enrollment. Of the 9656 students enrolled in aerospace engineering programs, 435 (4.5 percent) are foreign national students here on a temporary visa. Figure 2 shows a breakdown of engineering enrollment on the basis of freshmen, sophomores, juniors, and seniors. I have also shown graduate students in Figure 2, which were not included in the total in Figure l. Freshmen enrollment in l979 was l03,724. This represents an 8 percent increase over l978 and a l00 percent increase over l973. Sophomore enrollment of 78,594 represents a 9 percent increase over l978, and junior enrollment at 74,928 represents a 7 percent increase over l978. Senior enrollment at 83,242 represents a l3 percent increase over l978. Retention rates from l978 and l979 showed that 82 percent of all freshmen became sophomores, ll9 percent of the juniors became seniors, and 72 percent of the seniors graduated with a B.S. degree in engineering. Retention rates greater than l00 percent are due to transfers into engineering programs from other disciplines. As we all know, there is a great deal of transition in and out of engineering curricula. There is always a heavy loss from the freshman class to the sophomore class. This is made up, to some extent, by students enrolled in other scientific fields who decide to transfer to engineering at the end of their sophomore and junior years. Not all of them make it, however, since only 72 percent of the seniors eventually wind up with a B.S. degree in engineering. Graduate students increased 8 percent over l979 to 4l,384 enrollments. Thirty-four percent of the graduate enrollments in engineering curriculum are made up of foreign national students. Thirty-one percent of the masters degree candidates and 39 percent of the doctoral candidates are foreign national students. With respect to aerospace engineering, some 3l percent of the candidates are foreign nationals and 5l percent of the Ph.D. candidates are foreign national students. The number of women in graduate programs increased l6 percent over l978. Figure 3 shows that engineering degrees awarded in l979 amounted to 52,598 at the bachelor level. This represented a l4 percent increase over l978 and a 2l percent increase over the number of 45

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degrees awarded in l973. Of this total, 9 percent were awarded to women, as contrasted with l.4 percent in l973. Two percent were awarded to Blacks, as contrasted with l.5 percent in l973. One and one-half percent went to Hispanics, as contrasted with l.3 percent in l973. Asian Pacifies were awarded 3 percent of the engineering degrees in l979 and l.6 percent in l973. American Indians made up about 0.l of l percent in each of those years. Comparing the makeup of the 52,598 degrees awarded in l979 with the number of degrees awarded in l978, women were up 44 percent, Blacks were up 20 percent, Hispanics were up l0.l percent, Asian Pacifies were up 28.2 percent, and American Indians were up 59 percent. Compared with the overall increase of l4 percent, women and most minorities made headway over l978. Masters degrees in engineering were down l percent from those granted in l978. The l6,036 master degrees awarded in l979 were also 6.5 percent less than those awarded in l973. Twenty-five percent of the masters degrees awarded went to foreign nationals in l979. At the masters level, women increased their participation by 9.3 percent. Minorities were down. Blacks were off 2l percent, Hispanics were down l2 percent, and Asian Pacifies were down more than l4 percent. The number of doctoral degrees awarded in l979 was 9 percent greater than in l978. However, the 28l5 doctoral degrees awarded in 1979 was 22 percent below the number awarded in l973. Thirty-three percent of the doctoral degrees were awarded to foreign nationals. Two percent of the Ph.D. degrees went to women, 0.7 percent went to Blacks, and 0.8 percent went to Hispanics. Six percent of the doctoral degrees went to Asian Pacifies. Taking a look at aerospace engineering degrees shown in Figure 4, we find that in l979 there were ll45 degrees awarded. Although this represents a l7 percent increase over the number of aerospace engineering degrees awarded in l978, it represents only 86 percent of the total number of degrees awarded in l973. At the masters degree level, the 38l degrees awarded in aerospace engineering in l979 is 93 percent of the number of degrees awarded in l978 and 62 percent of the number of master degrees in aerospace awarded in l973. Ph.D. degrees also dipped in l979 to 82 percent of those awarded in l978 and about half of those awarded in l073. Foreign nationals received 26 percent of the masters and 50 percent of the doctoral degrees awarded to aerospace graduates. Figure 5 translates the numbers in Figure 4 into percentages to reflect participation of aerospace in engineering curriculum. We find that bachelors degrees in aerospace engineering amount to 2.2 percent of the total awarded, masters degrees about 2.4 percent of the total awarded, and Ph.D. degrees about 3.3 percent of the doctoral degrees awarded. In each case, you can see there is a substantial decrease from the heyday of l972. Figure 6 compares the degrees awarded to women to the freshman enrollment in all engineering curriculum. Women represented l4 percent of the total freshman enrollment in l979. This was l9 percent over that of l978 and 480 percent over that of l973. Nine percent of the total degrees awarded in l979 went to women. This was a 44 46

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percent increase over l978 and a 650 percent over l973. Forty-seven percent of the degrees awarded to women were Ln three major fields: mechanical engineering—l3 percent, electrical—l3 percent, and chemical—2l percent. Figure 7 shows that Blacks made up 6 percent of the total freshman enrollment in engineering. Their total enrollment of 6339 represented a l5 percent increase over l978 and a l97 percent increase over l973, which indicates good progress but it does not quite come up to the progress made by women. With respect to degrees awarded, Blacks received 2 percent of the total. Sixty-three percent of the degrees awarded to Blacks were in the fields of mechanical—2l percent, electrical—32 percent, and chemical—l0 percent. Figure 8 shows that Hispanics made up 3 percent of the total freshman enrollment in l979. This represents an l8 percent increase over l978 and a 29 percent over l973. Degrees awarded to Hispanics amounted to l.5 percent of the total degrees awarded. Forty-seven percent were in two fields: mechanical—l9 percent and electrical—28 percent. Figure 9 shows the participation of women and minorities in the degrees awarded for aerospace engineering. Although some slight gains have been made by Blacks and Hispanics, women have penetrated the aerospace field considerably, increasing their participation in terms of degrees awarded by some 350 percent since l974. Figure l0 shows some changes that have taken place Ln the participation of students in selected engineering curriculums over the past decade. In l969 some 28.5 percent of the degrees awarded were in the electrical engineering field. This fell to 23.2 percent in l979. Over the same period, mechanical engineering dropped from 2l.l percent to l9.2 percent. On the other hand, civil engineering went from l4.9 percent in l969 to l9.l percent Ln l979. Chemical engineering over the same period went from 8.6 percent to ll.l percent, and aerospace dropped from 5.5 percent of the total degrees awarded in l969 to 2.2 percent of the total degrees awarded in l979. Figure ll shows the status of engineering graduates as of their date of graduation. Our l979 survey showed that 76 percent were employed as of their date of graduation, l2 percent were entering graduate studies, and 3 percent had no offers or plans. In my opionion, the key items in this analysis are (l) entering graduate studies, (2) considering job offers, and (3) no offers or plans. When the job market is favorable we usually find fewer students going on to graduate school and more graduates still considering job offers. And, of course, when the job market Ls favorable we have fewer graduates with no offers or plans. When the job market is less than favorable we find an increased number applying for graduate school, a higher percentage with no offers or plans, and very few still considering job offers, since they are quick to accept a fair offer when it is made. As you can see from these numbers, l979 presented a favorable job market to the graduates. Figure l2 shows the statistics for aerospace graduates, with the number employed as of the date of graduation slightly lower, the number entering full-time graduate study slightly higher, and the 47

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number of graduates with no offers or plans about l percent higher than the average. The statistics are slightly lower than for some other disciplines, but really not that far out of line. Figure l3 shows the progress in salaries for engineers by degree level from l963 to the present. As the graph indicates, engineers have made good progress. Figure l4 indicates that aerospace engineers have also made good progress salary wise. Figure l5 shows a comparison of the starting salaries paid to engineers in general and those paid to aerospace engineers. Although aerospace engineers were somewhat behind over the past decade, apparently they've now caught up with the average. I would now like to share with you some preliminary information that we have collected in our placement survey with respect to starting salaries for bachelors, masters, and Ph.D. engineering graduates in l980. I should like to remind you that these are preliminary numbers and should not be considered official until our survey is published. As we all suspected, petroleum engineering graduates received the highest starting salaries of any engineering discipline at the bachelors level. At $l983 a month, their salary is higher than most starting salaries at the masters degree level. Aerospace graduates received starting salaries of $l655 at the bachelors level, which is somewhat below electrical and chemical, but higher than computer and civil. The average starting saiary for all disciplines as reported in the Engineering Manpower Commission Placement Survey is $l720 a month. At the masters degree level, the average starting salary is $l898 a month. The average starting salary for aerospace engineers at the masters level is $l867 a month. At the doctoral level, the average starting salary for all engineering disciplines is $23l3 a month. Aerospace engineers at the Ph.D. level receive starting salaries of $2235 a month. Figure l6 shows engineering employment and unemployment in the United States. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that we have about l,400,000 engineers currently employed, with an unemployment rate of about l.2 percent. It is estimated that aerospace engineers make up about 5 percent of the employed engineers. I hope that this information will be of some value to you in your deliberations over the next several days. If you have any questions in the time remaining, I shall try to answer them. Thank you again for your kind attention. 48

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(D in flC £ c 0) 8 c W 01 (O in o I I o 1 R 49

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50

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60 50 40 BS 30 20 10 MS PhD 72 74 76 YEAR FIGURE 3 Engineering Degrees 78 80 5l

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2000 1800 1600 — 1400 — 1200 — 1000 — 800 — 600 — 400 — 200 72 74 78 76 YEAR FIGURE 4 Aerospace Engineering Degrees 80 52

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% 3 — PhD 72 FIGURE 5 Aerospace Engineering Degrees as a Percent of Total Degrees Awarded 53

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16 12 FRESHMEN % 8 72 74 76 YEAR 78 80 FIGURE 6 Participation of Women in Engineering 54

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16 12 % 8 FRESHMEN BS DEGREES 72 74 76 YEAR 78 FIGURE 7 Participation of Blacks in Engineering 80 55

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4 i— % 2 FRESHMEN BS DEGREES 72 74 76 YEAR 78 80 FIGURE 8 Participation of Hispanics in Engineering 56

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6,— % 3 — FIGURE 9 Aerospace Engineering—Participation of Women and Minorities by Percent of B.S. Degrees Awarded 57

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2400 2200 2000 1800 eg oc 01600 Q i 3 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 PhD ENGINEERING GRADUATES MS ENGINEERING FIGURE l3 Average Monthly Starting Salaries 6l

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EMPLOYMENT, _ THOUSANDS 1100 1050 3.0 2.0 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % 78 FIGURE l6 Engineering Employment and Unemployment 79 64