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Nasa's Role Papers ,I,. Workshop. Volume 7: Background -05 7 National Research Council, Washington. DC. Panel on the Public Policy Implications of Earthquake Predict ionR*National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Washington, DCR ( O19026281 NB21O513) G4962I2 Fid: 1A, 5A , 51A STAR1917 1981 185p Rept No: NASA-CR-164519 Contract: NASW-3455 Workshop Held at Woods Hole. MassR, 27 JulR - AugR 198OS Abstract: The nature and implications of the current state of URSR aviation in a world setting are examined as well as their significance for NASA's role in the nation's aeronautical futureR The outlook for the 198O's is examined from the point of view of legislation, economics and finance; petroleum; manpower, metallic materials, general aviation; military aviation; transport aircraft developments; and helicopters. Possible NASA assistance to DOD and the FAA is examined and the evolution of NACA and NASA in aeronautics and of NASA's aeronautics capabilities are describedR Descriptors: 'Aeronautical engineering. 'Aircraft industry, *Civil aviation. *Conferences. *Government/industry relations. *Nasa programs. Aircraft fuels. Defense program. Federal budgets. Manpower, Market research IdentifiersR NTISNASA N81-26O34/1 NT IS Prices: PC A01

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NASA'S ROLE IN AERONAUTICS: A Workshop Volume VII Background Papers A Compilation of Papers Presented to the Workshop on the Outlook for Aeronautics and Relevant Areas. Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Assembly of Engineering National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1981 JUN2 51981 LIBRARY

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WORKSHOP ON ROLE OF NASA IN AERONAUTICS AUTHORS/SPEAKERS—PLENARY SESSION Robert A. Frosch Administrator National Aeronautics and Space Administration Alan M. Lovelace Deputy Administrator National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thomas R. Harkin Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Communication U.S. House of Representatives Frederick W. Bradley, Jr. Senior Vice President Citibank, New York John P. Longwell Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Patrick J. Sheridan Manager, Manpower Activities American Association of Engineering Societies Charles Law McCabe Vice President and General Manager High Technology Materials Division Cabot Corporation Bill Wilkins Associate Administrator for Policy and International Aviation Affairs Federal Aviation Administration William J. Perry Under Secretary of Defense Research and Engineering Department of Defense T. A. Wilson Chairman The Boeing Company Malcolm S. Harned Senior Vice President, Technology Cessna Aircraft Company Gerald J. Tobias President Sikorsky Aircraft Division United Technologies Corporation Charles R. Foster Director, Northwest Region Federal Aviation Administration Neal Blake Deputy Associate Administrator for Engineering and Development Federal Aviation Administration Gershom R. Makepeace Director, Engineering Technology Office of the Under Secretary for Defense Research and Engineering Department of Defense Walter B. Olstad Acting Associate Administrator for Aeronautics and Space Technology National Aeronautics and Space Administration iii

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PREFACE Aeronautics is changing in many significant respects. The implications of this are so far-reaching as to call into question the future position of the United States in world aviation. The magnitude of this question, with its possible consequences for the nation's economy and security, led the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to seek an independent evaluation from the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (ASEB) of the National Research Council's Assembly of Engineering. Specifically, the ASEB was asked to assess the nature and implications of the current state of U.S. aviation in a world setting and their significance for NASA's role in the nation's aeronautical future. The ASEB responded by convening a workshop July 27 through August 2, l980, at the National Academy of Sciences' Woods Hole Study Center. The workshop was structured into four panels covering mili- tary aviation, transport aircraft, general aviation, and rotorcraft. In addition, an overview panel was formed to consider NASA's role in research as well as its relationships with other elements of the aeronautics community. The central task of the workshop was to examine the relationship of NASA's aeronautical research capabilities to the state of U.S. avia- tion and to make recommendations about NASA's future roles in aeronautics. NASA and its predecessor, the National Advisory Committee for Aero- nautics (NACA), traditionally have maintained a cooperative relationship with the aeronautical industry, with other government agencies concerned with aircraft operations and regulations, and with the academic community engaged in aerospace research. This triumvirate was taken into account in planning the workshop and selecting the participants. Thus, representatives from each part of the aeronautical community were invited, and information on NASA's relationship with each was the subject of special presentations prior to the working sessions. Representation from industry was predominant because industry's relationship with NASA is considered to be a key element in examining the present and future roles of NASA. The members of the workshop panels represented, in total expertise and experience, all of the important sectors of aeronautics: military

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aircraft and missiles; commercial air transports; general aviation; rotorcraft; university and private research; airline operations; and government regulatory agencies- In addition, the participants also included representatives of other industries—notably, automotive, electronics, and steel. Including the speakers and other nonpanel members, close to 80 individuals participated. The participants were asked to address the issue of NASA's role in the context of a wider discussion concerning; the status and dimen- sions of U.S. aeronautics; the key aeronautical problems and opportuni- ties that are likely to ^e amenable to research and technology develop- ment; the historical evolution and accomplishments of NASA in aeronaut- ical research and technology development; and possible alternatives to NASA. Each of these subjects is discussed thoroughly in separate panel reports. Tbe report of the workshop consists of seven volumes: I — Summary II — Report of the Panel on Military Aviation III — Report of the Panel on Transport Aircraft IV — Report of the Panel on General Aviation V — Report of the Panel on Rotorcraft VI — Report of the Overview Panel on Aeronautical Research VII — Background Papers—The Outlook for Aeronautics and Relevant Areas In order to help focus the discussion, NASA officials developed and provided a concise set of definitions of eight possible roles for NASA; National Facilities and Expertise; Research; Generic Technology Evolu- tion; Vehicle Class Technology Evolution; Technology Demonstration; Technology Validation; Prototype Development; and, Operations Feasi- bility. Because some of these roles differ, depending on the aeronau- tical discipline involved, the roles are assessed within six principal aeronautical disciplines; aerodynamics, structures and materials, pro- pulsion, electronics and avionics, vehicle operations, and human engineering. Definitions of these roles and disciplines are contained in Section IV of Volume I. The matching of the roles and disciplines is treated in Volumes II-VI and summarized in Section II of Volume I. The workshop participants were extensively briefed by officials from NASA, the Department of Defense (DOD), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), by leaders from the aviation manufacturing and operating industries, and by a member of Congress. Each panel separately considered the national benefits produced within the dimensions of its sector and the relative state of the sector's world position; each considered the evolution of NASA's role, as well as a rationale for NASA's aeronautical support of its sector; and, finally, each panel produced sector-oriented conclusions and vi

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recommendations for NASA's roles for the future. Although there are obvious overlaps, the similarities and differences in each of the panels' findings are preserved in the separate reports of the sector- oriented panels, Volumes II-V. This document, Volume VII, contains the Background Papers that were presented to a plenary session of the workshop on the first and second days. Each paper is the work of an individual who accepts full responsi- bility for its contents. Each speaker was invited to deliver his paper because of his recognized competence in the subject. None of the papers published in this volume has been critically reviewed in accordance with the procedures approved by a Report Review Committee of the National Research Council, which operates on behalf of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board is grateful to the speakers, all of whom gave so willingly and generously of their time and expertise to bring to the workshop participants a wealth of knowledge and insight on issues likely to affect on the future course of aeronautics in the United States. vii

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CONTENTS BACKGROUND AND QUESTIONS ON NASA'S ROLE IN AERONAUTICS NASA'S ROLES AND CONCERNS THE LEGISLATIVE OUTLOOK THE WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK R. A. EROSCH >/ A. M. LOVELACE 3 T. R. HARKIN 9 F. W. BRADLEY, JR. l5 THE OUTLOOK FOR PETROLEUM PERSPECTIVE ON ENGINEERING MANPOWER J. P. L0NGWELL \s P. J. SHERIDAN 25 43 THE OUTLOOK FOR METALLIC MATERIALS THE l980'S: A DECADE OF REVITALIZA- TION FOR AVIATION C. L. MpCABE ,s B. WLLKINS 65 7l THE OUTLOOK FOR MILITARY AERONAUTICS THE OUTLOOK FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT W. J. PERRY T. A. WILSON WII 77 85 THE OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL AVIATION THE HELICOPTER'S FUTURE: FRUITION OR FRUSTRATION? M. S. HARNED \s G. J. TOBIAS 9l l07 HOW NASA CAN ASSIST THE FAA HOW NASA CAN ASSIST THE FAA HOW NASA CAN ASSIST THE DOD IN AERONAUTICS C. R. FOSTER v N. B BLAKE G. R. MAKEPEACE v 1l9 l25 l3l THE EVOLUTION OF THE ROLE OF NACA AND NASA IN AERONAUTICS AND NASA'S AERONAUTICS CAPABILITIES W. B. OLSTAD v l39 ix