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THE FUTURE OF ADVANCED
NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES


INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH TEAM SUMMARIES

Conference
Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center
Irvine, California
November 15-17, 2013

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu



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THE FUTURE OF THE FUTURE OF ADVANCED HUMAN HEALTHSPAN NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES Demography, Evolution, Medicine, and Bioengineering INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH TEAM SUMMARIES TA S K G R O U P S U M M A R I E S Conference Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center Irvine, California November 15-17, 2013

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The Interdisciplinary Research (IDR) team summaries in this publication are based on IDR team discussions during the National Academies Keck Futures Initiative Conference on The Future of Advanced Nuclear Technologies held at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center in Irvine, California, November 15-17, 2013. The discussions in these groups were summarized by the authors and reviewed by the members of each IDR team. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the IDR teams and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. For more information on the National Academies Keck Futures Initiative visit www.keckfutures.org. Funding for the activity that led to this publication was provided by the W. M. Keck Foundation. Based in Los Angeles, the W. M. Keck Foundation was established in 1954 by the late W. M. Keck, founder of the Superior Oil Company. In recent years, the Foundation has focused on Science and Engineering Research; Medical Research; Undergraduate Education; and Southern California. Each grant program invests in people and programs that are making a difference in the quality of life, now and for the future. For more information visit www.wmkeck.org. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-30086-5 International Standard Book Number 10:  0-309-30086-X Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334- 3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a man- date that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Na- tional Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES KECK FUTURES INITIATIVE THE FUTURE OF ADVANCED NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES STEERING COMMITTEE RICHARD A. MESERVE, Chair (NAE), President, Carnegie Institution for Science S. JAMES ADELSTEIN (IOM), Paul C. Cabot Distinguished Professor of Medical Biophysics, Harvard Medical School JOHN S. APPLEGATE, Executive Vice President for University Regional Affairs, Planning, and Policy, Walter W. Foskett Professor of Law, Indiana University ALBERT CARNESALE (NAE), Chancellor Emeritus and Professor, University of California, Los Angeles THOMAS B. COCHRAN, Consulting Senior Scientist and former Director of the Nuclear Program, Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. (NRDC) MICHAEL L. CORRADINI (NAE), Professor, Department of Engineering Physics, University of Wisconsin–Madison ROBERT C. DYNES (NAS), President Emeritus, Professor, Department of Physics, University of California, San Diego CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD (NAS), Director, Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science Hedvig Hricak (IOM), Chair, Department of Radiology, Memorial Sloan‐ Kettering Cancer Center THOMAS H. ISAACS, E.O. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory FRED A. METTLER, Professor Emeritus, Department of Radiology, New Mexico Federal Regional Medical Center, The University of New Mexico WARREN MILLER, JR. (NAE), TEES Distinguished Research Professor, Texas A&M University System PHILIP R. SHARP, President, Resources for the Future Staff KENNETH R. FULTON, Executive Director KIMBERLY A. SUDA-BLAKE, Senior Program Director ANNE HEBERGER MARINO, Program Officer CRISTEN KELLY, Associate Program Officer RACHEL LESINSKI, Program Associate Consultant BARBARA J. CULLITON, Director, NAKFI Science Writing Scholar Program v

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The National Academies Keck Futures Initiative THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES KECK FUTURES INITIATIVE The National Academies Keck Futures Initiative was launched in 2003 to stimulate new modes of scientific inquiry and break down the conceptual and institutional barriers to interdisciplinary research. The National Acad- emies and the W. M. Keck Foundation believe that considerable scientific progress will be achieved by providing a counterbalance to the tendency to isolate research within academic fields. The Futures Initiative is designed to enable scientists from different disciplines to focus on new questions, upon which they can base entirely new research, and to encourage and reward outstanding communication between scientists as well as between the sci- entific enterprise and the public. The Futures Initiative includes three main components: Futures Conferences The Futures Conferences bring together some of the nation’s best and brightest researchers from academic, industrial, and government labora- tories to explore and discover interdisciplinary connections in important areas of cutting-edge research. Each year, some 150 outstanding research- ers are invited to discuss ideas related to a single cross-disciplinary theme. Participants gain not only a wider perspective but also, in many instances, new insights and techniques that might be applied in their own work. Ad- ditional pre- or post-conference meetings build on each theme to foster further communication of ideas. vii

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viii THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES KECK FUTURES INITIATIVE Selection of each year’s theme is based on assessments of where the intersection of science, engineering, and medical research has the greatest p ­ otential to spark discovery. The first conference explored Signals, Decisions, and Meaning in Biology, Chemistry, Physics, and Engineering. The 2004 confer- ence focused on Designing Nanostructures at the Interface between Biomedical and Physical Systems. The theme of the 2005 conference was The Genomic Revolution: Implications for Treatment and Control of Infectious Disease. In 2006 the conference focused on Smart Prosthetics: Exploring Assistive Devices for the Body and Mind. In 2007 the conference explored The Future of Human Healthspan: Demography, Evolution, Medicine, and Bioengineering. In 2008 the conference focused on Complex Systems. The 2009 conference explored Syn- thetic Biology: Building on Nature’s Inspiration. The 2010 conference focused on Seeing the Future with Imaging Science. The 2011 conference focused on Ecosystem Services. The 2012 conference focused on The Informed Brain in a Digital World and the 2013 conference explored The Future of Advanced Nuclear Technologies. The 2014 conference will explore collective behavior from cells to societies. Futures Grants The Futures Grants provide seed funding to Futures Conference partici- pants, on a competitive basis, to enable them to pursue important new ideas and connections stimulated by the conferences. These grants fill a critical missing link between bold new ideas and major federal funding programs, which do not currently offer seed grants in new areas that are considered risky or exotic. These grants enable researchers to start developing a line of inquiry by supporting the recruitment of students and postdoctoral fellows, the purchase of equipment, and the acquisition of preliminary data—which in turn can position the researchers to compete for larger awards from other public and private sources. NAKFI Communications The Communication Awards are designed to recognize, promote, and encourage effective communication of science, engineering, medicine, and/or interdisciplinary work within and beyond the scientific commu- nity. Each year the Futures Initiative awards $20,000 in prizes to those who have ­ dvanced the public’s understanding and appreciation of science, a e ­ngineering, and/or medicine. The awards are given in four categories:

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES KECK FUTURES INITIATIVE ix books, film/radio/TV, magazine/newspaper, and online. The winners are honored during a ceremony in the fall in Washington, DC. NAKFI cultivates science writers of the future by inviting graduate students from science writing programs across the country to attend the conference and develop interdisciplinary research (IDR) team discussion summaries and a conference overview for publication in this book. Students are selected by the department director or designee, and prepare for the conference by reviewing the webcast tutorials and suggested reading, and selecting an IDR team in which they would like to participate. Students then work with NAKFI’s science writing student mentor to finalize their reports following the conferences. Facilitating Interdisciplinary Research Study During the first 18 months of the Keck Futures Initiative, the Academies undertook a study on facilitating interdisciplinary research. The study exam- ined the current scope of interdisciplinary efforts and provided recommen- dations as to how such research can be facilitated by funding organiza­ions t and academic institutions. Facilitating Interdisciplinary ­ esearch (2005) is R available from the National Academies Press (www.nap.edu) in print and free PDF versions. About the National Academies The National Academies comprise the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council, which perform an unparalleled public service by bringing together experts in all areas of science and technology, who serve as volunteers to address critical national issues and offer unbiased advice to the federal government and the public. For more information, visit www. nationalacademies.org. About the W. M. Keck Foundation Based in Los Angeles, the W. M. Keck Foundation was established in 1954 by the late W. M. Keck, founder of the Superior Oil Company. The Foundation’s grant making is focused primarily on pioneering efforts in the areas of Science and Engineering Research; Medical Research; Under­ graduate Education; and Southern California. Each grant program invests

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x THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES KECK FUTURES INITIATIVE in people and programs that are making a difference in the quality of life, now and in the future. For more information, visit www.wmkeck.org. National Academies Keck Futures Initiative 100 Academy, 2nd Floor Irvine, CA 92617 949-721-2270 (Phone) 949-721-2216 (Fax) www.keckfutures.org

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Preface At the National Academies Keck Futures Initiative Conference on The Future of Advanced Nuclear Technologies, participants were divided into 14 interdisciplinary research (IDR) teams. The teams spent 9 hours over 2 days exploring diverse challenges at the interface of science, engineering, and medicine. The composition of the teams was intentionally diverse, to encourage the generation of new approaches by combining a range of different types of contributions. The teams included researchers from sci- ence, engineering, and medicine, as well as representatives from private and public funding agencies, universities, businesses, journals, and the science media. Researchers represented a wide range of experience—from postdocs to those well established in their careers—from a variety of disciplines that included science and engineering, medicine, physics, biology, economics, and behavioral science. The teams needed to address the challenge of communicating and working together from a diversity of expertise and perspectives as they at- tempted to solve a complicated, interdisciplinary problem in a relatively short time. Each team decided on its own structure and approach to tackle the problem. Some teams decided to refine or redefine their problems based on their experience. Each team presented two brief reports to all participants: (1) an interim report on Saturday to debrief on how things were going, along with any special requests; and (2) a final briefing on Sunday, when each team: xi

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xii PREFACE • Provided a concise statement of the problem; • Outlined a structure for its solution; • Identified the most important gaps in science and technology and recommended research areas needed to attack the problem; and • Indicated the benefits to society if the problem could be solved. Each IDR team included a graduate student in a university science writing program. On the basis of the team interaction and the final brief- ings, the students wrote the following summaries, which were reviewed by the team members. These summaries describe the problem and outline the approach taken, including what research needs to be done to understand the fundamental science behind the challenge, the proposed plan for engi- neering the application, the reasoning that went into it, and the benefits to society of the problem solution. Because of the popularity of some topics, two or three teams were assigned to explore the subjects. Eight tutorials were launched throughout the summer to help bridge the gaps in terminology used by the various disciplines. Participants were encouraged to listen to all of the tutorials prior to the November conference.

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Contents Conference Summary 1 IDR TEAM SUMMARIES Team 1: Identify improvements in technology and other approaches that will ensure the future development and supply of radionuclides and radiopharmaceuticals for diagnostics imaging and therapy. 9 IDR Team Summary, Group A, 13 IDR Team Summary, Group B, 16 IDR Team Summary, Group C, 21 Team 2: Develop a transformational fuel for light water reactors— advanced and current. 27 IDR Team Summary, Group A, 30 IDR Team Summary, Group B, 34 Team 3: Develop innovative approaches to make special nuclear materials (SNMs) more easily monitored and more detectable if stolen. 41 Team 4: Design and fund a 3-year public private initiative to better understand and bridge the perception/reality gap between the public and nuclear experts on the risks of the nuclear enterprise and to restore the public trust. 47 xiii

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xiv CONTENTS IDR Team Summary, Group A, 50 IDR Team Summary, Group B, 54 IDR Team Summary, Group C, 59 Team 5: Define the means to promote U.S. interests in the international nuclear power field in an era of diminishing U.S. and Western European influence.  63 Team 6: How might the widespread use of civilian nuclear power and associated fuel cycle facilities be made compatible with a world free of (or with a small number of ) nuclear weapons? 71 IDR Team Summary, Group A, 73 IDR Team Summary, Group B, 77 Team 7: Identify a new and practical application of nuclear phenomena for the benefit of humankind. 83 IDR Team Summary, Group A, 85 IDR Team Summary, Group B, 90 APPENDIXES List of Preconference Tutorials 97 Agenda 101 Participant List 105 To listen to the podcasts or view the conference presentations, please visit our website at www.keckfutures.org.