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Committee on an Assessment of the Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (AFTA) Mission Concepts Space Studies Board Board on Physics and Astronomy Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS   500 Fifth Street, NW   Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by Contract NNH14CK38D between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-30129-9 International Standard Book Number-10:  0-309-30129-7 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to asso­ ciate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND THE BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY Opportunities for High-Power, High-Frequency Transmitters to Advance Ionospheric/Thermospheric Research: Report of a Workshop (Space Studies Board [SSB], 2014) Adapting to a Changing World—Challenges and Opportunities in Undergraduate Physics Education (Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA], 2013) An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy (BPA, 2013) Assessment of Inertial Confinement Fusion Targets (BPA, 2013) High Magnetic Field Science and Its Application in the United States: Current Status and Future Directions (BPA, 2013) Landsat and Beyond: Sustaining and Enhancing the Nation’s Land Imaging Program (SSB, 2013) Lessons Learned in Decadal Planning in Space Science: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2013) Nuclear Physics: Exploring the Heart of Matter (BPA, 2013) Review of the Draft 2014 Science Mission Directorate Science Plan (SSB, 2013) Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society (SSB, 2013) Assessment of a Plan for U.S. Participation in Euclid (BPA with SSB, 2012) Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Spacecraft Missions to Icy Solar System Bodies (SSB, 2012) Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA’s Implementation of the Decadal Survey (SSB, 2012) The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2012) NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, 2012) Report of the Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA and SSB, 2012) Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation (SSB, 2012) 2020 Vision: An Overview of New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA with SSB, 2011) Assessment of Impediments to Interagency Collaboration on Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2011) An Assessment of the Science Proposed for the Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) (BPA, 2011) Implementing Recommendations from New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA with SSB, 2011) Panel Reports—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2011) Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (SSB and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, 2011) Sharing the Adventure with the Public—The Value and Excitement of “Grand Questions” of Space Science and Exploration: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2011) Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 (SSB, 2011) Limited copies of SSB reports are available Limited copies of BPA reports are available free of charge from free of charge from Space Studies Board Board on Physics and Astronomy National Research Council National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3477/ssb@nas.edu (202) 334-3520/bpa@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html www.nationalacademies.org/bpa/bpa.html

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COMMITTEE ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ASTROPHYSICS FOCUSED TELESCOPE ASSETS (AFTA) MISSION CONCEPTS FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology, Chair MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona, Vice Chair ROGER D. BLANDFORD, Stanford University ERIK L. BURGESS, Burgess Consulting, Inc. JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago MEGAN DONAHUE, Michigan State University TIMOTHY M. HECKMAN, Johns Hopkins University JAMES P. LLOYD, Cornell University MIGUEL MORALES, University of Washington EDWARD L. WRIGHT, University of California, Los Angeles A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired) Staff DAVID LANG, Senior Program Officer, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Study Director LEWIS B. GROSWALD, Associate Program Officer, Space Studies Board ANDREA M. REBHOLZ, Program Associate, Space Studies Board DIONNA WILLIAMS, Program Associate, Space Studies Board MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Space Studies Board JAMES C. LANCASTER, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy v

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair JOHN KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Vice Chair MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University JAMES ANDERSON, Harvard University JAMES BAGIAN, University of Michigan JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology NEIL GEHRELS, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research HEIDI B. HAMMEL, AURA RODERICK HEELIS, University of Texas, Dallas JOSEPH S. HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc. WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, Carnegie Institution of Washington ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, U.S. Naval War College JOHN F. MUSTARD, Brown University DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology SAUL PERLMUTTER, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University CLIFFORD M. WILL, University of Florida THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer SANDRA WILSON, Senior Financial Assistant vi

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BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY PHILIP H. BUCKSBAUM, Stanford University, Chair DEBRA M. ELMEGREEN, Vassar College, Vice Chair CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University RICCARDO BETTI, University of Rochester TODD DITMIRE, University of Texas, Austin NATHANIEL J. FISCH, Princeton University PAUL FLEURY, Yale University MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University BARBARA V. JACAK, Stony Brook University MARK B. KETCHEN, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center MONICA OLVERA de la CRUZ, Northwestern University PAUL SCHECHTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology BORIS SHRAIMAN, Kavli Institute of Theoretical Physics MICHAEL S. WITHERELL, University of California, Santa Barbara JAMES LANCASTER, Director DONALD C. SHAPERO, Senior Scholar DAVID LANG, Program Officer LINDA WALKER, Program Coordinator BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate vii

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their di- verse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Charles Bennett, Johns Hopkins University, Joshua Frieman, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Andrew Gould, The Ohio State University, Joseph Hezir, EOP Group, Inc., Lynne Hillenbrand, California Institute of Technology, Robert Kirshner, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Adam Riess, Johns Hopkins University, John Trauger, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Scott Tremaine, Institute for Advanced Study, and Linda Williams, Wyle Aerospace Group. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or rec- ix

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x Acknowledgment of Reviewers ommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Martha Haynes, Cornell University. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an indepen- dent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 5 1 THE WFIRST/AFTA SCIENCE PROGRAM 10 Dark Energy and Beyond, 10 Standard Candles—Type Ia Supernovae, 13 Standard Rulers—Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, 14 Growth—Redshift Space Distortions, 14 Growth—Cosmic Shear and Galaxy Cluster Mass Calibration, 15 WFIRST, LSST and Euclid—A Powerful Complementary Program for Cosmology in the Next Decade, 15 Exoplanets, 16 Surveying the Evolution of the Universe, 17 The WFIRST/AFTA Observing Program, 21 Addition of the Coronagraph—Scientific Rationale and Consistency with Technology Development Goals of NWNH, 21 2 WFIRST IN THE PROGRAMMATIC CONTEXT 27 Cost and Cost-Risk Assessment, 28 Addition of the Coronagraph, 32 Mission Operations Complexity, 34 3 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 36 xi

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xii Contents APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 45 B Meeting Agenda 46 C Committee and Staff Biographical Information 49 D Acronyms 57