Click for next page ( R2


The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page R1
PREP PUBLIC CATIO CO ON OPY Th Arct in the Anthropo he tic t ocene: : Emerging Res E search Ques h stions This preppublication version of Th Arctic in the Anthropo v he ocene: Emer rging Researc Questions has ch been pro ovided to the public to fa e acilitate time access to the report. A ely Although the substance o the e of report is final, edito i orial changes may be mad througho the text an citations w be chec s ade out and will cked prior to publication The final report will be available th o n. re e hrough the NNational Aca ademies Press in ss Spri of 2014. ring Comm mittee on Emerging Research Q R Questions in the Ar s rctic Polar Re esearch B oard Division on Ea and L Studie arth Life es TH NATIONA ACADEM HE AL MIES PRESS Wash hington, D.C C. ww ww.nap.edu

OCR for page R1
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW •Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the Arctic Research Commission, the Department of Energy under award number DE-SC0008724; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under award number NNX13A014G; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under award number WC133R-11- CQ-0048, TO#4; the National Science Foundation under award number ARC-1243485; and the Smithsonian Institution under award number 12-PO-590-0000254005. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agencies or any of their sub agencies. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data or International Standard Book Number 0-309-0XXXX-X Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 97-XXXXX Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; Internet, http://www.nap.edu/ . Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. PREPUBLICATION COPY 

OCR for page R1
The Natio onal Academy of Sciences is a private, no y onprofit, self-p perpetuating s society of distinguished schholars engaged in scientific an engineering research, de nd g edicated to the furtherance of science an technology and e nd y to their us for the gene welfare. Upon the auth se eral U hority of the ch harter granted to it by the C d Congress in 18 863, the Acade emy has a man ndate that req quires it to adv the federa government on scientific and technica vise al t al matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cic D cerone is pres sident of the National Acad N demy of Sciences. The Natioonal Academy of Engineerin was established in 1964 , under the ch y ng harter of the N National Acad demy of Science as a paralle organization of outstanding engineers . It is autonom es, el mous in its adm ministration a in and the selecti of its mem ion mbers, sharing with the Natiional Academ of Sciences the responsib my s bility for advis sing the federa government The Nationa Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aim at al t. al f s med meeting national needs encourages education and research, an recognizes the superior achievements of s, nd s s engineers. Dr. C. D. Mo Jr., is pres . ote, sident of the National Acad N demy of Engin neering. The Institu of Medicin was established in 1970 by the Nation Academy of Sciences to secure the ute ne nal o services of eminent members of appr ropriate professions in the e examination o policy matt pertaining to of ters g the health of the public The Institute acts under th responsibil ity given to th National A c. e he he Academy of Sciences by its congress b sional charter to be an adviser to the fed r deral governmment and, upon its own initiative, n to identify issues of med y dical care, res search, and edducation. Dr. Harvey V. Finneberg is pres sident of the Institute of Medicine. The Natio onal Research Council was organized by the National Academy of S Sciences in 19 to associa 916 ate the broad community of science and technology with the Acad o d w demy’s purpos of furtherin knowledge and ses ng e advising th federal gov he vernment. Fun nctioning in accordance wi general po ith olicies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agen of both th National Ac , o ncy he cademy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineerin in providing services to t governme the public and a ng g the ent, c, the scienti and engineering communities. The Council is adm ific C ministered join by both A ntly Academies and the d Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cic D cerone and Dr. C. D. Mote Jr., are chair and vice cha respective of D e, r air, ely, the Nation Research Council. nal C www.natio onal-academies.org

OCR for page R1
 

OCR for page R1
  COMMITTEE ON EMERGING RESEARCH QUESTIONS IN THE ARCTIC HENRY P. HUNTINGTON (Co-Chair), The Pew Charitable Trusts, Eagle River, Alaska STEPHANIE PFIRMAN (Co-Chair), Barnard College, Columbia University, New York, New York CARIN ASHJIAN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ, Michigan Technological University, Ann Arbor, Michigan JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey SVEN HAAKANSON, University of Washington, Seattle ROBERT HAWLEY, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire TAQULIK HEPA, North Slope Borough, Barrow, Alaska DAVID HIK, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta LARRY HINZMAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks AMANDA LYNCH, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island A. MICHAEL MACRANDER, Shell Alaska, Anchorage GIFFORD H. MILLER, University of Colorado, Boulder KATE MORAN, Ocean Networks Canada, Victoria, British Columbia ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON (NAS), The Ohio State University, Columbus SAMUEL B. MUKASA, University of New Hampshire, Durham TOM WEINGARTNER, University of Alaska, Fairbanks NRC Staff: MAGGIE WALSER, Co-Study Director LAUREN BROWN, Co-Study Director LARA HENRY, Christine Mirzayan Fellow ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate PREPUBLICATION COPY  v

OCR for page R1
  POLAR RESEARCH BOARD JAMES C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado, Boulder WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado, Boulder SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst JOHN CASSANO, University of Colorado, Boulder JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia BERNICE M. JOSEPH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, The Ohio State University, Columbus GEORGE B. NEWTON, QinetiQ North America, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts RAFE POMERANCE, Independent Consultant CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska GAIUS R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts KATEY WALTER ANTHONY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York NRC Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Board Director LAURIE GELLER, Program Director MAGGIE WALSER, Senior Program Officer LAUREN BROWN, Associate Program Officer LARA HENRY, Christine Mirzayan Fellow AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant PREPUBLICATION COPY  vi

OCR for page R1
  Preface This report comes at a unique time in human history—never before has an ocean opened up before our eyes, awakening many to the importance and relevance of the far north. Because of the Arctic’s new strategic and economic potential, most of the Arctic countries—the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark/Greenland, Finland, Iceland, and Russia—have produced new or updated national Arctic plans within the past year. These countries include some of the world’s largest and strongest economies. Several of the national plans have a development orientation and increased empowerment of northern populations as countries grapple with the prospect of increasingly accessible new mineral and energy resources. Internationally, the opening of the Arctic has raised issues of sovereignty and preparedness and spurred political realignment. Recently, the European Command1 identified the Arctic as a security concern. The non-Arctic countries of China, India, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea were accepted as observers by the Arctic Council2 in 2013, joining France, Spain, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The United States will assume chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2015. The Arctic itself is unique. The seasonal shifts from icy white in winter to browns, greens, and blues in summer are greater than anywhere else on Earth as the snow melts on land and the sea ice retreats in the ocean. The Arctic Ocean is surrounded by land, with narrow passages allowing interchange between the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. The terrestrial influence on its hydrology is the strongest of all the oceans, and it receives freshwater from some of the largest rivers on Earth, whose watersheds include much of North America and Asia. Some have called it the estuary for the rest of the world ocean. The nearly encircling, shallow continental shelves are dominated by national Exclusive Economic Zones, which cover a greater proportion of the Arctic than any other ocean. The United States shares international borders with Russia and Canada in the Arctic. Northern populations are unique in their relationship with the land, having thrived through some of the largest climate variations on Earth ranging from the ice age with mile-thick glaciers and frozen lands, to the warming, thawing, greening, glacial retreat, and urbanization of the Anthropocene. Resilient in the face of past changes, they face a complex suite of disruptions, dislocations, and opportunities in the years to come as all climate models project continued warming and loss of sea ice, on which many of their traditional practices and food sources depend. The need for actionable Arctic science has never been greater than it is today. This report synthesizes scientific community input on emerging research topics in the Arctic (i.e., those questions that we are only now able to ask or have a realistic prospect for studying). These may be missing from or under-recognized by current research foci. We also outline opportunities and challenges in supporting new and existing research pathways and translating that research into practical information that can help guide management and policy decisions in the United States. The report is directed toward the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC),3 which represents 13 federal agencies and organizations with responsibilities in the Arctic. 1 http://www.eucom.mil/ 2 http://www.arctic-council.org 3 IARPC member agencies / organizations include: the National Science Foundation; the Department of Commerce; the Department of Defense; the Department of State; the Department of Health and Human Services; the Department of Homeland Security ; Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Department of Agriculture; the Department of Energy; the Department of the Interior; the Department of Transportation; the PREPUBLICATION COPY  vii

OCR for page R1
viii  The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions  It is designed to address the urgency for understanding the rapidly changing Arctic by connecting the dots among future science opportunities and priorities, infrastructure needs, and collaboration opportunities at local, regional and international levels. In preparing this analysis, the committee heard from a broad spectrum of the scientific and stakeholder communities and we thank everyone for their thoughts and perspectives (Appendix B). We also thank the over 300 anonymous participants in our community questionnaire (Appendix C). Special thanks to Marc Meloche, David Scott, and Sandy Bianchini of the Canadian Polar Commission for hosting our committee meeting in Ottawa. On behalf of the entire study team, we also thank the sponsors who enabled the undertaking of this important analysis. Finally, this report would not have been possible without the dedication and hard work of the National Research Council staff: Lauren Brown and Maggie Walser. We also thank Elizabeth Finkelman, Shelly Freeland, Rita Gaskins, and Rob Greenway for administrative and logistical support. Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington, Co-Chairs Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic National Aeronautics and Space Administration; the Environmental Protection Agency; the Smithsonian Institution; the National Endowment for the Humanities. PREPUBLICATION COPY 

OCR for page R1
  Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report: WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado, Boulder EDDY CARMACK, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks BYRON CRUMP, Oregon State University GAIL FONDAHL, University of Northern British Columbia DONALD PEROVICH, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Dartmouth College MARTIN ROBARDS, Wildlife Conservations Society JULIENNE STROEVE, National Snow and Ice Data Center ORAN YOUNG, University of California, Santa Barbara TINGJUN ZHANG, National Snow and Ice Data Center Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John Walsh, University of Alaska Fairbanks, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. The authoring committee also wishes to thank numerous individuals from a broad spectrum of the scientific and stakeholder communities (Appendix B). Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. PREPUBLICATION COPY  ix

OCR for page R1
x  The Arctic in the Anthropo ocene: Emerg ging Research Questions  The Ar rctic. PREPUBLICATION CO OPY 

OCR for page R1
  Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 11 Study Context and Charge to the Committee, 13 Study Approach and Methodology, 13 Report Organization, 13 2 RATIONALE FOR CONTINUED ARCTIC RESEARCH 17 3 EMERGING QUESTIONS 25 Evolving Arctic, 28 Will Arctic communities have greater or lesser influence on their futures? Will the land be wetter or drier and what are the associated implications for surface water, energy balances, and ecosystems? How much of the variability of the Arctic system is linked to ocean circulation? What are the impacts of extreme events in the new ice-reduced system? How will primary productivity change with decreasing sea ice and snow cover? How will species distributions and associated ecosystem structure change with the evolving cryosphere? Hidden Arctic, 42 What surprises are hidden within and beneath the ice? What is being irretrievably lost as the Arctic changes? Why does winter matter? What can “break or brake” glaciers and ice sheets? How unusual is the current Arctic warmth? What is the role of the Arctic in abrupt change? What has been the Cenozoic evolution of the Arctic Ocean basin? Connected Arctic, 53 How will rapid Arctic warming change the jet stream and affect weather patterns in lower latitudes? What is the potential for a trajectory of irreversible loss of Arctic land ice and how will its impact vary regionally? How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and sub-polar basins? How will Arctic change affect the long-range transport and persistence of biota? How will changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic communities? Managed Arctic, 62 How will decreasing populations in rural villages and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies? Will local, regional, and international relations in the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict? How can twenty-first century development in the Arctic occur without compromising the environment or indigenous cultures while still benefitting global and Arctic inhabitants? How can we prepare forecasts and scenarios to meet emerging management needs? PREPUBLICATION COPY  xi

OCR for page R1
xii  The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions  What benefits and risks are presented by geoengineering and other large-scale technological interventions to prevent or reduce climate change and associated impacts in the Arctic? Undetermined Arctic, 74 4 MEETING THE CHALLENGES 81 Enhancing Cooperation, 82 Interagency International Interdisciplinary Intersectoral Cooperation through Social Media Sustaining Long-Term Observations, 85 Rationale for Long-Term Observations Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts Managing and Sharing Information, 90 Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders, and Archives Data Visualization and Analysis Maintaining and Building Operational Capacity, 95 Mobile Platforms Submersible Platforms Research Vessels Fixed Platforms and Systems Remote Sensing Satellites Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Sensors Power and Communication Models in Prediction, Projection, and ReAnalyses Partnerships with Industry Growing Human Capacity, 110 Community Engagement Investing in Research, 112 Comprehensive Systems and Synthesis Research Non-Steady-State Research Social Sciences and Human Capacity Stakeholder-Initiated Research International Funding Cooperation Long-Term Observations 5 BUILDING KNOWLEDGE AND SOLVING PROBLEMS 119 REFERENCES 123 APPENDIXES A Acronyms and Abbreviations, 151 B Speaker and Interviewee Acknowledgements, 155 C Summary of Questionnaire Responses, 157 D Biographical Sketches of Committee Members, 161 PREPUBLICATION COPY