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  2 Rationale for Con R e ntinued A Arctic Research Suprag aglacial water channels and sm surface pon on the flank of Russell gla c mall nds ks lacier, a land ter erminating glaci ier on Soutthwest Greenlaand Photo cred Perry Spect dit: tor What happ pens in the Arc has far-re ctic eaching implic cations around the world. L d Loss of snow and ic exacerbates climate change and is the largest contr ce e ributor to expeected global s level rise sea over the next centu Ten perce of the worl fish catch come from Arctic and su t ury. ent ld’s hes m ubarctic waters (Lindholt, 20006). The U.S Geological Survey has es S. S stimated that u to 13 perce of the up ent world’s estimated remaining oil reserves are in the Arctic (G n Gautier et al., 2009). The icconic cultures s and sppecies of the Arctic capture the imaginat A e tion of million of people (A ns ABA, 2013). T geologic The history of the Arctic may hold vit clues abou volcanic eru y c tal ut uptions and th impacts o ocean heir on chemistry and atmo ospheric aerossols, including the release o large volum of ash tha are thought g of mes at to hav caused mas extinctions in the distant past (Grasby et al., 2011). The physical, biological, ve ss t and soocial systems of the Arctic are changing in rapid, com a mplex, and inte eractive ways, with effects througghout the region and, increeasingly, the globe. If we as a global soci g s iety are to resp pond effecti ively to these challenges, understanding the Arctic sys u stem has neve been more critical and er thus Arctic research has never be more imp A h een portant. The ability to identify an predict the ways in whic loss of sea ice affects climate, biology nd ch y, and soociety will help us better prrepare and ad dapt, in the Ar rctic and beyo ond. Assessing the impacts g of industrial activity will help us develop appr y ropriate regulaatory strategie that reap ec es conomic benefits while minimizing negative consequen nces, lessons that can be ap pplied far and wide. d PREPUBLICATION CO OPY  17

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18  The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions  BOX 2.1 SELECTED RECENT (2013) DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ARCTIC Winter rain, an unusual event in the high north, drives animal numbers on a Norwegian Arctic island into decline, showing that extreme climate events can affect an entire community of vertebrates (Hansen et al., 2013). Within the past five years, nine of the 14 villages in Nunavik in northernmost Quebec have had to install cooling systems at community ice hockey arenas to keep the rinks cold during winter (Klein, 2013). Tracer results from the Greenland Ice Sheet drainage system indicate evolution from a slow process to a fast channelized system over the course of the melt season (Chandler et al., 2013). Ancient camels may have occupied Arctic forests 3.5 million years ago, a time when the region was densely forested and considerably warmer than today (Rybczynski et al., 2013). One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming is that winter warming exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4, according to model simulations (Bintanja and van der Linden, 2013). Dynamic bacterial communities associated with snowpacks may be active in supraglacial nitrogen cycling and capable of rapid responses to changes induced by snowmelt (Hell et al., 2013). An isolated population of Arctic foxes that dines only on marine animals seems to be slowly succumbing to mercury poisoning (Bocharova et al., 2013). The Arctic Council agreed to expand to include six new countries with permanent observer status in the Arctic Council: China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India and Italy (Myers, 2013) Pliocene polar amplification could be related to the loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, according to model simulations (Ballantyne et al., 2013). ExxonMobil and Rosneft (a Russian oil company) reached an agreement to create a $450 million Arctic Research Center (OGJ Editors, 2013). Sediments from Lake El'gygytgyn in northeastern Russia reveal that 3.6 million years ago the Arctic's summers were 8 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today (Brigham-Grette et al., 2013). Shifts in sea-ice cover could affect oceanic emissions of dimethylsulphide (DMS) — a climate-relevant trace gas generated by ice algae and phytoplankton that acts as a nucleus for cloud droplet formation. Observations and model results suggest that the emission of DMS will increase in the Arctic as the seasonal sea-ice cover recedes. If it escapes to the atmosphere, it could augment cloud formation and cool the Arctic climate (Levasseur, 2013). A Greenland “Grand Canyon” was discovered. It is 50% longer than Arizona's 277-mile Grand Canyon, but not as deep -- ranging from 650 feet to about 2,600 feet (200 to 800 meters) (Bamber et al., 2013). Analysis suggests wild food consumption, as practiced in two isolated First Nations communities of northwestern Ontario, can increase blood levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), which provide a number of important metabolic benefits that could allow the prevention/treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus, which has risen dramatically in northern communities (Seabert et al., 2013). The first meeting of the Arctic Circle, a group established to facilitate dialogue and build relationships among businesses and those in the Arctic to address rapid changes in the Arctic, takes place in Iceland.5 The genome of a young boy buried at Mal’ta near Lake Baikal in eastern Siberia some 24,000 years ago shows that during the last Ice Age, people from Europe had reached farther east across Eurasia than previously supposed (Wade, 2013). Crusts deposited on underwater rocks by coralline algae record changes in sea ice over the past 650 years. They show that sea ice decline since 1850 is unprecedented in the record (Halfar et al., 2013). 5 http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674arctic_circle_conference_attracts_hundreds_to_iceland/ PREPUBLICATION COPY 

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Ration nale for Conti inued Arctic R Research 1 19  Studying th ways Arctic peoples resp he c pond to social and environmental chang will help us l ge s better understand societal resilience and the conditions tha foster it, a pressing challe c at enge everywwhere. Under rstanding how a fast-warming Arctic may contribute to increased ex w y o xtreme weath events will help to evalu her uate risk outside the Arctic.. These and many other key questions have been ide k entified over t years in va the arious planning document and other efforts to guide Arctic resear ts e e rch. The Commmittee analyz many zed strateg research planning docu gic p uments produc since the conclusion of the Internatio ced f onal Polar Year in 2009. These reports inclu uded many re ecommendatio for future Arctic researc The sheer ons ch. numb of reports, and the hund ber dreds of participants involve in their pre ed eparation, test tifies to the streng of commun concern and need for deeper knowl gth nity a d ledge. In crafting a research strategy for the next 10 to 20 years, it is ess n sential to asse the ess questi ions that are emerging in Arctic research from our inc e A h, creased under rstanding, from the rapid m chang underway, from new op ges , pportunities to study areas a phenome that have remained o and ena hidden until now, and from new needs to man a w nage how we respond to th developing Arctic. These he g e ions are addre questi essed in the ne chapter. The significanc of the emerging question does not in ext T ce ns n any way reduce the importance of the existing questions th currently g w e g hat guide Arctic reesearch. On the co ontrary, the abbility to ask em merging quest tions depends on past results as well as o s ongoing pursuits to address important issu in Arctic research (e.g., Box 2.1). Wi this in min the ues r , ith nd, identified categorie of knowledg underscore both what is important an point toward what is truly es ge e s nd emergging, as well as what will be needed to support researc in these em a e ch merging areas While s. previo reports foc ous cused on wha we know we need to kno this report also conside what we at ow, t ers may not yet recogn n nize as unknow wn. We know the Arctic syst t tem is warmin rapidly (Fig ng gure 2.1). We also know that sea ice is drama atically thinne and less ext er tensive, and th snow on A hat Arctic land are is disappe eas earing ever earlier in summer. We know Arc albedo is decreasing, as it shifts from the high valu of ice and W ctic s m ues d snow to the darker grays, greens, browns, blac and blues of soil, veget cks s tation, and wa ater. We knoww Arctic communities are feeling th stress of en c s he nvironmental a social change in all fac of their and cets lives. We also know we have no sufficiently sampled muc h of the Arctic during the lo winter w ot s c ong darkness. The observed Artic imp pacts attribute to climate c ed change are suummarized in Table 2.1. FIGUR 2.1 Annual near-surface air temperature changes north o f 30 °N are ma RE n r apped as the ave erage temperature measured between 200 and 2012 rel 01 lative to the ave erage temperature for the 30-yyear baseline period 1971 to 2000. Arctic tempera d . ature increases of 2 to 3 °C, co ompared with t smaller incr the reases (0.5 to 1 °C) in mid-latitude regions, exemplif Arctic amplif fy fication of glob climate chan bal nge. Higher tem mperatures in all parts of the Arctic ind o dicate a respons to global cha se ange rather than to natural reg n gional variabilit SOURCE: ty. Reprod duced with per rmission from Je effries et al. (2013). Copyright 2013, America Institute of P an Physics. PREPUBLICATION CO OPY 

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20  The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions  TABLE 2.1 Observed impacts of climate change in the Arctic reported in the literature since the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. SOURCE: adapted from IPCC, 2014, Summary for Policy Makers Category Examples Snow and Ice Decreasing sea ice cover in summer (high confidence, major contribution from Rivers and Lakes climate change) Floods and Drought Reduction in ice volume in glaciers (high confidence, major contribution from climate change) Decreasing snow cover extent (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) Widespread permafrost degradation, especially in the southern Arctic (high confidence, major contribution from climate change) Increased river discharge for large circumpolar rivers (1997-2007) (low confidence, major contribution from climate change) Increased winter minimum river flow (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) Increased lake water temperatures (1985-2009) and prolonged ice-free seasons (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) Disappearance of thermokarst lakes due to permafrost degradation in the low Arctic. New lakes created in areas of formerly frozen peat. (high confidence, major contribution from climate change) Terrestrial Ecosystems Increased shrub cover in tundra in North America and Eurasia (high confidence, major contribution from climate change) Advance of Arctic tree line in latitude and altitude (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) Changed breeding area and population size of subarctic birds, due to snowbed reduction and/or tundra shrub encroachment (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) Loss of snowbed ecosystems and tussock tundra (high confidence, major contribution from climate change) Impacts on tundra animals from increased ice layers in snow pack, following rain- on-snow events (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) Coastal Erosion and Increased coastal erosion (medium confidence, major contribution from climate Marine Ecosystems change) Negative effects on non-migratory species (high confidence, major contribution from climate change) Decreased reproductive success in seabirds (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) Food Production and Impact on livelihoods of indigenous peoples, beyond effects of economic and Livelihoods sociopolitical changes (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) Increased shipping traffic across the Bering Strait (medium confidence, major contribution from climate change) PREPUBLICATION COPY 

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Rationale for Continued Arctic Research    21  BOX 2.2 ARCTIC-RELATED FINDINGS IN CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY The physical, biological and socio-economic impacts of climate change in the Arctic have to be seen in the context of often interconnected factors that include not only environmental changes caused by drivers other than climate change but also demography, culture, and economic development. The rapid rate at which climate is changing in the Polar Regions will impact natural and social systems (high confidence) and may exceed the rate at which some of their components can successfully adapt (low to medium confidence). Impacts on the health and well-being of Arctic residents from climate change are significant and projected to increase – especially for many indigenous peoples (high confidence) (IPCC, 2014). These knowns are important and establish the foundation for what we do next (Box 2.2). But there are other categories to consider as well, as indicated by the matrix in Table 2.2 that was inspired by R.D. Laing (1970): If I don’t know I don’t know I think I know If I don’t know I know I think I don’t know Most of the reports we examined focus on what we know we need to know, following on as the consequences of what we know. We know that social and environmental changes are leading to increasing urbanization, but we do not know the consequences of this evolution. Warming promotes northward habitat migration and changing seasonal conditions, leading to new hotspots and dead zones in biological productivity, but we do not know where or when. We know that some of the thresholds we are reaching and crossing have analogs deep in the geological record, such as life in a previously ice-diminished and more acidic Arctic Ocean, and we need to explore those system circumstances and responses. We know that we have not profiled or sampled much of the central Arctic Ocean sediments, and that once we do, there are sure to be surprises in our understanding of geologic evolution. Things we think we don’t know are in an important category that is often neglected in scoping out research strategies. This includes things that are known in one community, but largely unknown in others. Traditional knowledge is one example: it has guided the livelihood of indigenous peoples for thousands of years, yet most people who do not live in the Arctic are unaware of its critical observations and known interconnections. Similarly, academic scientific findings, including analyses and interpretations, are often reported in venues and formats that are specific to a discipline, and not accessible or useable by others. Industry research is often proprietary, but could help answer questions if it were widely accessible. Questions posed by stakeholders and decision-makers, as they try to meet the challenges of the changing Arctic, are also important indicators of system responses that are not known by many in the academic Arctic research community. Things we don’t know we don’t know are things that we cannot foresee at this point in time. They include aspects of the system that we have not yet considered, as well as surprise events after which nothing is the same. An example of this was the dramatic loss of the sea ice cover in the summer of 2007 to 23 percent below the previous record low in 2005 (Stroeve et al., 2008), followed by another dramatic decline five years later in 2012 to 50 percent of the sea ice cover only PREPUBLICATION COPY 

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22  The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions  30 years before (NSIDC6). To prepare for these events, we need to understand the present system, imagine the “what ifs,” and be positioned to detect and respond. To understand the system, investments need to be made in fundamental, exploratory, and process research. To be in position to detect these changes and critical circumstances, we need comprehensive, long-term observing capabilities coupled with periodic snapshots of the entire system to establish baselines, as we did during the International Polar Year (2007-2009). And we need to be able to deploy resources quickly once change or an event is detected. This means that both logistics and funding need to be more flexible in terms of timing and also spatial distribution, from local to national and international scales. The examples in Table 2.1 are illustrative of progress in understanding, issues of current research, informational obstacles that impede progress, and sources of surprises. The table is organized in the following categories: (a) why Arctic research is important (knowns are what we have learned), (b) why emerging questions are worth thinking about (know we need to know are where the next discoveries lie), (c) why we need continued research support and enhanced collaboration (things we think we don’t know are holding us back if we continue to ignore them), and (d) why it’s essential to be open to new things (don’t know we don’t know are where the surprises will come). 6 http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/09/arctic-sea-ice-extent-settles-at-record-seasonal-minimum/ PREPUBLICATION COPY 

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Rationale for Continued Arctic Research    23  TABLE 2.2 Examples from the four categories of knowledge described in the text. (a) Knowns (b) Know we Need to Know  Arctic is warming, more warming is likely  Identify biodiversity hotspots  Changes in phase (increased ice loss/increased  Greater understanding of teleconnections permafrost thawing)  Adaptation and mitigation strategies  Albedo reduction, reduced summer sea ice extent and thickness, reduced snow cover  Sustainable development and resilience strategies  Reduced glacier mass, leading to increased sea  Seasonality of Arctic systems level rise and changes in hydrologic cycle  Cumulative impacts of environmental and social  Increased greening change  Increased variability and disturbances in Arctic  Implications of urbanization systems  Impact of Arctic change on global climate  Increased accessibility and activity (e.g., resource change exploration, shipping, tourism)  Impact of ice loss and calving from Greenland on  Changes in social, economic, cultural, and rate and magnitude of global sea level rise political systems  Arctic atmospheric connections to mid-latitude  Ocean acidification weather  Threats to food security  Community migration  Winter and spring data are lacking  Rate of change and associated implications  How to re-think Arctic engineering  Landscape evolution  Oceanic restructuring  Changes in marine and terrestrial primary production (c) Think we Don’t Know (d) Don’t Know we Don’t Know Knowledge that is known to one group but not others,  Unanticipated and/or extreme environmental including: changes and events  Traditional knowledge  Industry knowledge Knowledge that will emerge through:  Discipline-specific knowledge  Monitoring and long-term observations  Stakeholder and policy maker information needs  Basic research and process studies  Unpublished or unarchived data  Model-observation intercomparison  Analysis of outliers in paleo data  Systems research and research at system interfaces  Exploratory research  Understanding system thresholds and transitions  Rapid response capability PREPUBLICATION COPY 

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