Linkages Between Arctic Warming
and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns

Summary of a Workshop

Katie Thomas, Rapporteur

Committee on Linkages Between Arctic Sea Ice Loss
and Mid-Latitude Weather Pattern: A Workshop

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Polar Research Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

                                                OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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Linkages Betwe Arc War L een ctic rming an Mid- nd -Latitud Weather Pa de atterns Summary of a Work y kshop Katie Thomas, Rapp K porteur Committee on Linkage Between A es Arctic Sea Ic Loss ce and Mid‐Latitude Weather Patter d rns: A Works shop Board on Atmosph heric Science and Clima es ate Polar Research Boa R ard Division on Earth and Lif Studies D E fe TH NATIONA ACADEM HE AL MIES PRESS Wash hington, D.C C. ww ww.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under contract numbers AGS-1158602 and ARC-1137066, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract numbers NNX08AB07G and NNX10AR69G, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract numbers NA11OAR4600211 and NA13OAR4310215. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agencies or any of their subagencies. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-30188-6 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-30188-2 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334- 3313; http://www.nap.edu/ . Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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COMMITTEE ON LINKAGES BETWEEN ARCTIC SEA ICE LOSS AND MID‐LATITUDE WEATHER PATTERNS: A WORKSHOP DAVID A. ROBINSON, (Chair), Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway UMA BHATT, University of Alaska, Fairbanks CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington, Seattle LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus CLARA DESER, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO WALTER MEIER, University of Colorado, Boulder NRC Staff: KATIE THOMAS, Study Director AMANDA STAUDT, Director SUSAN ROBERTS, Director (until September 2013) LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate v

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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, Florida HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey PAMELA EMCH, Northrup Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden ANTHONY JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin-Madison STEPHEN W. PACALA, Princeton University, New Jersey ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, The University of Chicago, Illinois KIMBERLY PRATHER, University of California, San Diego S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway JOHN T. SNOW, The University of Oklahoma, Norman CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson Ocean Studies Board Liaison DANIEL RUDNICK, University of California, San Diego NRC Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Director EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer KATHERINE THOMAS, Program Officer LAUREN BROWN, Associate Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant vi

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POLAR RESEARCH BOARD JAMES W. C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado, Boulder WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado, Boulder SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park KATEY WALTER ANTHONY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst JOHN CASSANO, University of Colorado, Boulder JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, Marion, Massachusetts EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia BERNICE M. JOSEPH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (until January 13, 2014) ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus GEORGE B. NEWTON, U.S. Arctic Research Commission, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts RAFE POMERANCE, Independent Consultant, Washington, DC CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska GAIUS R. SHAVER, The Ecosystems Center, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York Ex-Officio JACQUELINE M. GREBMEIER (U.S. Delegate to IASC), University of Maryland, Solomons TERRY WILSON (U.S. Delegate to SCAR), Ohio State University, Columbus DENEB KARENTZ (Alternate U.S. Delegate to SCAR), University of San Francisco, California NRC Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Director EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer KATHERINE THOMAS, Program Officer LAUREN BROWN, Associate Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant vii

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Contents Overview 1 Introduction 2 Arctic Warming and Extreme Events in the Mid-Latitudes: A Possible Link? 3 The Role of Arctic Warming in the Context of Other Forcing Factors 6 Observational Evidence of Trends 15 Theoretical and Modeling Studies 26 ACID Test to Assess Proposed Linkages 34 Future Needs and Opportunities 34 References 39 Appendixes A Speaker Abstracts 45 B Workshop Agenda and Participant List 59 C Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers 65 D Acronyms and Initialisms 69 E Biographical Sketches of Planning Committee Members 71 ix

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