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Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop (2014)

Chapter: Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18727.
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Appendix C
Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers

Session 1 speakers presented the table below as a potential tool for organizing information about what is known and not known about proposed linkages between Arctic warming and mid-latitude weather patterns. The first column is used to describe each linkage. The second column is meant to assess confidence in and strength of linkages by outlining our current scientific understanding of that linkage. The ACID test (Attributable, Corroborated, Informed, Detected) could be incorporated here. The third column is used to identify critical research gaps in observations and models. The first row provides some suggestions on factors to consider. The remaining two rows provide examples.

The schematic is illustrative of the big picture questions beyond the scope of the workshop:

 

  • To what does the Arctic respond?

o   Changes at the Polar Cap boundary.

o   Changes at other boundaries (surface, tropopause, composition of atmospheric column).

 

  • To what does the mid-latitude circulation respond?

o   Changes at the Polar Cap boundary.

o   Changes at other boundaries (surface, tropopause, subtropical boundary, composition).

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18727.
×
Arctic Linkages: Summary table
a. Linkage and Description:

 

•   Timescale (intraseasonal, decadal, …)

•   Season (JFM, SON, …)

•   Proposed role of Arctic (direct, through feedbacks, through modes)

•   Motivation to study (fundamental, forecasting, socioeconomic, ecological)

b. Current Understanding:

 

•   Basis of evidence (theory, obs, models)

•   Related linkages, and separability from these linkages

•   Level of confidence (ACID)

•   Quantification (e.g. sensitivity factors .M/.A)

c. Research Gaps:

 

•   Observational capacity

•   New observational analysis

•   Modeling capacity

•   New model experiments and diagnostics

•   Theoretical knowledge

•   Impacts analysis

1a. Linkage and Description:

Sea ice and mid-latitude wave amplitude events

 

•   Multidecadal trend

•   Seasonality of response is poorly understood

•   Proposed to be forced by Arctic amplification; direct Arctic involvement

•   Connected to mid-latitude weather extremes

1b. Current Understanding:

 

•   Observational evidence: some in support, some not; metric dependent

•   Some theoretical arguments in support, but details of dynamical mechanism are lacking.

•   Related to other implications of polar amplification.

•   Fundamental problem of signal to noise in analyses

•   Dynamical mechanism poorly quantified (e.g. seasonality of forcing and response, timescales, amplitude of response)

•   Attributable – No; Corroborated – No; Informed by mechanisms – Maybe; Detected –No

1c. Research Gaps:

 

•   Broader observational analysis required involving statistics of extremes.

•   Simplified model experiments possibly useful.

•   Studies of CMIP5 require high frequency output.

•   Long model runs, multiple realizations, required.

2a. Linkage and Description:

Eurasian snow/sea ice linkage

 

•   Interannual variability and decadal trends

•   September sea ice and October snow

•   Arctic role: direct, through moisture transport

2b. Current Understanding:

 

•   Difficult to detect clear linkage apart from trends.

•   Disagreement with trends for different observational datasets

•   Model support: direct sea ice perturbation experiments

•   Physically plausible.

•   ACID assessment: Attributable – in models; Corroborated – Only partially; Informed by mechanisms – Partially; Detected – Partially.

2c. Research Gaps:

 

•   Need to consolidate climate data records

•   Need to analyze trends in models and understand connections to moisture transport.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18727.
×

images

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18727.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18727.
×
Page 65
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18727.
×
Page 66
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18727.
×
Page 67
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Table and Schematic Presented by Session 1 Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18727.
×
Page 68
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The Arctic has been undergoing significant changes in recent years. Average temperatures are rising twice as fast as they are elsewhere in the world. The extent and thickness of sea ice is rapidly declining. Such changes may have an impact on atmospheric conditions outside the region. Several hypotheses for how Arctic warming may be influencing mid-latitude weather patterns have been proposed recently. For example, Arctic warming could lead to a weakened jet stream resulting in more persistent weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Or Arctic sea ice loss could lead to an increase of snow on high-latitude land, which in turn impacts the jet stream resulting in cold Eurasian and North American winters. These and other potential connections between a warming Arctic and mid-latitude weather are the subject of active research.

Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns is the summary of a workshop convened in September 2013 by the National Research Council to review our current understanding and to discuss research needed to better understand proposed linkages. A diverse array of experts examined linkages between a warming Arctic and mid-latitude weather patterns. The workshop included presentations from leading researchers representing a range of views on this topic. The workshop was organized to allow participants to take a global perspective and consider the influence of the Arctic in the context of forcing from other components of the climate system, such as changes in the tropics, ocean circulation, and mid-latitude sea surface temperature. This report discusses our current understanding of the mechanisms that link declines in Arctic sea ice cover, loss of high-latitude snow cover, changes in Arctic-region energy fluxes, atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events; possible implications of more severe loss of summer Arctic sea ice upon weather patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps in our understanding, and observational and/or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations for using Arctic sea ice predictions to assess the risk of temperature/precipitation anomalies and extreme weather events over northern continents.

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