REDUCING THE FUEL CONSUMPTION AND
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS OF MEDIUM-
AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES, PHASE TWO

FIRST REPORT

Committee on Assessment of Technologies and Approaches for Reducing the Fuel Consumption of
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Transportation Research Board

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page R1
REDUCING THE FUEL CONSUMPTION AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS OF MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES, PHASE TWO FIRST REPORT Committee on Assessment of Technologies and Approaches for Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Transportation Research Board

OCR for page R1
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by cooperative agreement DTNH22-12-H-00389 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-30237-1 International Standard Book Number-10:­  0-309-30237-4 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http:// www.nap.edu. Copyright 2014 by The National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

OCR for page R1
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

OCR for page R1

OCR for page R1
COMMITTEE ON ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES AND APPROACHES FOR REDUCING THE FUEL CONSUMPTION OF MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES, PHASE TWO ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan, Chair INES AZEVEDO, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania RODICA BARANESCU, NAE, University of Illinois at Chicago THOMAS CACKETTE, California Air Resources Board (retired), Sacramento NIGEL N. CLARK, West Virginia University, Morgantown RONALD GRAVES, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville, Tennessee DANIEL HANCOCK, NAE, General Motors (retired), Indianapolis, Indiana W. MICHAEL HANEMANN, NAS,2 Arizona State University, Tempe WINSTON HARRINGTON, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. GARY MARCHANT, Arizona State University, Tempe PAUL MENIG, Tech-I-M, Sherwood, Oregon DAVID F. MERRION, Merrion Expert Consulting, Brighton, Michigan AMELIA REGAN, University of California, Irvine MIKE ROETH, North American Council for Freight Efficiency, Fort Wayne, Indiana GARY W. ROGERS, Independent Consultant, Birmingham, Michigan CHARLES K. SALTER, Independent Consultant, Chambersburg, Pennsylvania CHRISTINE VUJOVICH, Cummins, Inc. (retired), Columbus, Indiana JOHN WOODROOFFE, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Ann Arbor MARTIN ZIMMERMAN, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Staff MARTIN OFFUTT, Responsible Staff Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems JOSEPH MORRIS, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board E. JONATHAN YANGER, Research Associate, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator DANA CAINES, Financial Manager, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems 1 NAE, National Academy of Engineering. 2 NAS, National Academy of Sciences. v

OCR for page R1
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan, Chair DAVID T. ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, NAE, The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan WILLIAM F. BRINKMAN, NAS, Princeton University WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, Retired Chairman, Progress Energy, Raleigh, North Carolina PAUL A DECOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis MARGO OGE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (retired), McLean, Virginia MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, New Jersey JACKALYNE PFANNENSTIEL, Consultant, Piedmont, California DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Daimler-Chrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan GARY ROGERS, Independent Consultant, Birmingham, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS,2 University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York, New York ADRIAN ZACCARIA, Bechtel Group (retired), Frederick, Maryland MARY LOU ZOBACK, NAS, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California Staff JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director JOHN HOLMES, Associate Director and Senior Program Officer DANA CAINES, Financial Associate ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist ELIZABETH EULLER, Project Assistant LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator MARTIN OFFUTT, Senior Program Officer E. JONATHAN YANGER, Research Associate 1 NAE, National Academy of Engineering. 2 NAS, National Academy of Sciences.. vi

OCR for page R1
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2014 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE1 KIRK T. STEUDLE, Director, Michigan Department of Transportation, Lansing, Chair DANIEL SPERLING, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Vice Chair ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR., Transportation Research Board, Executive Director VICTORIA A. ARROYO, Executive Director, Georgetown Climate Center, and Visiting Professor, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. SCOTT E. BENNETT, Director, Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department, Little Rock DEBORAH H. BUTLER, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, Virginia (Past Chair, 2013) JAMES M. CRITES, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport, Texas MALCOLM DOUGHERTY, Director, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento A. STEWART FOTHERINGHAM, Professor and Director, Centre for Geoinformatics, School of Geography and Geosciences, University of St. Andrews, Fife, United Kingdom JOHN S. HALIKOWSKI, Director, Arizona Department of Transportation, Phoenix MICHAEL W. HANCOCK, Secretary, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort SUSAN HANSON, Distinguished University Professor Emerita, School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts STEVE HEMINGER, Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Oakland, California CHRIS T. HENDRICKSON, Duquesne Light Professor of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JEFFREY D. HOLT, Managing Director, Bank of Montreal Capital Markets, and Chairman, Utah Transportation Commission, Huntsville GARY P. LaGRANGE, President and CEO, Port of New Orleans, Louisiana MICHAEL P. LEWIS, Director, Rhode Island Department of Transportation, Providence JOAN McDONALD, Commissioner, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany ABBAS MOHADDES, President and CEO, Iteris, Inc., Santa Ana, California DONALD A. OSTERBERG, Senior Vice President, Safety and Security, Schneider National, Inc., Green Bay, Wisconsin STEVEN W. PALMER, Vice President of Transportation, Lowe’s Companies, Inc., Mooresville, North Carolina SANDRA ROSENBLOOM, Professor, University of Texas, Austin (Past Chair, 2012) HENRY G. (GERRY) SCHWARTZ, JR., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, Missouri KUMARES C. SINHA, Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana GARY C. THOMAS, President and Executive Director, Dallas Area Rapid Transit, Dallas, Texas PAUL TROMBINO III, Director, Iowa Department of Transportation, Ames PHILLIP A. WASHINGTON, General Manager, Regional Transportation District, Denver, Colorado 1Membership as of March 2014. vii

OCR for page R1

OCR for page R1
Preface The fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emis- meets the two agencies’ objectives of (1) reducing in-use sions of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) have emissions of carbon dioxide from MHDVs; (2) reducing in- become a focus of legislative and regulatory action in the use emissions of other GHGs from MHDVs; and (3) improv- past few years. Section 101 of the Energy Independence ing in-use efficiency of fuel use in MHDVs—by driving and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007), Pub. L No. 110-140 innovation, advancement, adoption, and in-use balance of §101, mandated the U.S. Department of Transportation to technology through regulation. At the same time, the com- promulgate fuel consumption standards for MHDVs for the mittee seeks to advise on pathways to accomplish this, sub- first time. In addition, Section 108 of that same Act required ject to the following constraints: (a) holding life-cycle cost the Secretary of Transportation to contract with the National of technology change or technology addition to an acceptable Academy of Sciences to undertake a study on the technolo- level; (b) holding capital cost of acquiring required new gies and costs for improving fuel consumption in MHDVs technology to an acceptable level; (c) acknowledging the and prepare follow-on reports at 5-year intervals. importance of employing a balance of energy resources that In response to the Secretary’s request, the National offers national security; (d) avoiding near-term, precipitous Research Council (NRC) in 2010 completed Technolo- regulatory changes that are disruptive to commercial plan- gies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of ning; (e) ensuring that the vehicles offered for sale remain Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, referred to henceforth suited to their intended purposes and meet user requirements; as the Phase One Report. The Phase One Report provided (f) ensuring that the process used to demonstrate compliance a series of findings and recommendations on the follow- is accurate, efficient, and not excessively burdensome; and ing: the development of a fuel consumption program for (g) not eroding control of criteria pollutants or unregulated MHDVs; metrics for measuring MHDV fuel consumption; species that may have health effects. availability and costs of various technologies for reducing Objectives 1, 2, and 3 are not fully congruent when fuel consumption; potential indirect effects and externalities fuels having different carbon content are considered, and associated with fuel consumption standards for MHDVs; when GHGs other than carbon dioxide are considered. In alternatives for the scope, stringency, certification methods, particular, GHG and efficiency are decoupled when the fuel and compliance approach for the standards; and a suggested and engine technology changes. Objectives 1, 2 and 3 also demonstration program to validate innovative certification require that any regulation must reflect real-world activity procedures and regulatory elements. and performance of vehicles. Constraints (a) and (b) suggest Thereafter, in 2011, the National Highway Traffic Safety that the regulation and standards may stop short of driving Administration (NHTSA) and the U.S. Environmental Pro- best available technology or certain technology pathways. tection Agency issued the Phase I Rule on fuel consumption However, (a) and (b) do not go so far as to suggest that new and GHG emissions of MHDVs. technology must offer a positive return on investment for the This report comprises the first periodic, 5-year follow-on consumer through reduced fuel usage: Needs for efficiency to the NRC’s 2010 report. The NRC formed the Committee and GHG reduction may reach beyond economic drivers on Technologies and Approaches for Reducing the Fuel for change. Constraints (c), (d), and (e) may dictate that a Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase single standard may not be reasonable because a mix of fuels Two, for this purpose. may be needed and because these different fuels may not be In the present report, the committee seeks to advise capable of meeting a common standard if the standard is set NHTSA as it revises its regulatory regime for MHDVs that too ambitiously. Constraint (f) may be in conflict with the ix

OCR for page R1
x PREFACE real-world benefit implications of the objectives. Constraints David Foster, University of Wisconsin (retired), (c) and (d) imply that the regulations should not close current Art Fraas, Resources for the Future, or anticipated technology pathways without adequate notice Steve Hanson, Pepsi-FritoLay, to manufacturers and suppliers. Stephen Kratzke, NHTSA (retired), The committee is grateful to all of the federal agen- Margo Oge, International Council on Clean cies, original equipment manufacturers, suppliers and their Transportation, respective associations, and nongovernmental organizations Joseph Prahl, Case Western Reserve University, whose staff contributed significantly of their time and efforts Bernard Robertson, NAE, DaimlerChrysler, to this NRC study, either by giving presentations at com- Aymeric Rousseau, Argonne National Laboratory, and mittee meetings or by responding to committee requests for James Spearot, Mountain Ridgeline Consulting, LLC. information. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals Although the reviewers listed above have provided many chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical exper- constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked tise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review is to provide candid and critical comments that will review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. Drake, assist the institution in making its published report as sound NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Appointed as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the independent examination of this report was carried out in study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript accordance with institutional procedures and that all review remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring review of this report: committee and the institution. Steve Berry, NAS, University of Chicago, Daniel Blower, University of Michigan Transportation Andrew Brown, Jr., Chair Research Institute, Committee on Assessment of Technologies and Approaches Rebecca Brewster, American Transportation Research  Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and for Institute, Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two Mike Camosy, Auto Research Center,

OCR for page R1
Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 7 Background, 7 Comparison of EPA and NHTSA MHDV Fuel Consumption Regulations to NRC Phase One Report Recommendations, 8 Metrics Used in the Regulation, 8 Classes of Vehicles to Regulate, 9 Certification Procedures, 9 Pilot Program and Evolution of the Regulatory Regime, 10 Trailer Regulations, 12 Testing, 12 Other Recommendations in the NRC Phase One Report That Were Not Addressed by the Agencies, 13 Market and Regulatory Background Factors, 15 Natural Gas, 15 Biofuels, 17 Electrification, 18 Life-Cycle Analysis of Fuels, 19 Automated/Connected Vehicles, 20 Green Logistics, 20 Background Regulatory Changes, 20 References, 21 2 POTENTIAL FOR TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN COMMERCIAL VEHICLES TO 23 IMPACT FUTURE NHTSA REGULATIONS Overview of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (Classes 2b Through 8), 23 Power Train Technologies, 25 Vehicle Technology, 27 References, 27 3 CERTIFICATION AND COMPLIANCE PROCEDURES USING GEM 29 Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model, 30 Description of GEM, 32 Use of GEM for Over-the-Road Tractors, 33 Analysis of GEM, 35 User Interface, Order Entry, and GEM Utility, 35 User-Specified Data Input and Hard-Coded Features of GEM, 35 xi

OCR for page R1
xii CONTENTS Fixed Values in the GEM Code, 37 Vehicle and Component Integration, 37 References, 38 4 BASELINE INFORMATION ON MHDV FLEET AND METHODOLOGY FOR 40 COLLECTION Introduction, 40 Why Do We Need a Baseline? NHTSA Should Have a Baseline in Order to Inform Its Rulemaking, 40 What Is a Baseline?, 40 Why a Baseline?, 41 Which Year Should the Baseline Capture?, 41 Which Data Should the Baseline Contain?, 41 Criteria for a Good Baseline Data Collection Process, 42 Comments on NHTSA, SwRI, and Frost & Sullivan Survey, 42 Comments on the CalHEAT Report for the California Energy Commission, 42 Findings and Recommendations, 43 References, 43 Annex 4A: Other Sources of Baseline Data in the Industry, 44 Annex 4B: Additional Ways to Obtain Information in the Future, 51 5 NATURAL GAS VEHICLES: IMPACTS AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 52 Summary of Supply and Demand Trends for Natural Gas Fuel, 52 Natural Gas Engines and Vehicles, 54 Technology, 54 Infrastructure, 60 Expected Growth in Natural Gas Vehicle Population, 62 Regulatory Framework for Natural Gas Engines and Trucks, 63 Greenhouse Gas Emission and Fuel Economy Standards for Engines, 63 NG Engines, 64 Emission and Fuel Economy Standards for Complete Trucks, 64 Findings and Recommendations, 65 References, 65 6 REVIEW OF OPTIONS TO REDUCE ENERGY USE OF TRAILERS 67 Background, 68 Current Tractor-Trailer Energy Balance, 68 Aerodynamics and Tire Rolling Resistance of the Tractor-Trailer, 68 Aerodynamics of the Combined Tractor-Trailer, 69 Tractor Aerodynamics, 69 Van Trailer Aerodynamics, 70 Tractor-Trailer Gap, 70 Tire Rolling Resistance, 70 Government Programs That Influence Tractor-Trailer Fuel Consumption, 72 SmartWay, 72 California Air Resources Board Regulation, 74 NHTSA and EPA Regulations, 74 Methods for Aerodynamic Performance Evaluation, 74 Current Use of Aerodynamic Devices and Low-Rolling-Resistance Tires, 76 Tractors, 76 Aerodynamic Devices on Van Trailers, 76 Market for Trailer Aerodynamic Devices, 77 Barriers to Increased Use of Trailer Aerodynamic Devices, 79 Tires, 80

OCR for page R1
CONTENTS xiii Tire Pressure Systems, 82 Findings and Recommendations, 83 Trailers, 83 Tractors, 84 Tractors and Trailers, 84 Tires, 84 References, 84 Annex 6A: Questions Posed to Van Trailer Manufacturers to Gather Information for Table 6-5, 86 Annex 6B, 87 APPENDIXES A Committee Biographical Information 91 B Statement of Task 97 C Committee Activities 98 D Acronyms and Abbreviations 100 E Glossary 102

OCR for page R1