CAN EARTH’S AND SOCIETY’S
SYSTEMS MEET THE NEEDS OF
10 BILLION PEOPLE?
SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP
Maureen Mellody, Rapporteur
Board on Environmental Change and Society
and
Committee on Population
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Board on Life Sciences
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This study was supported by the Presidents’ Committee of the National Academies. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Cover credit: Photo of crowd taken June 23, 2007, by photographer James Cridland (CC by 2.0), https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/613445810.
Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2014). Can Earth’s and Society’s Systems Meet the Needs of 10 Billion People? Summary of a Workshop. M. Mellody, Rapporteur. Board on Environmental Change and Society and Committee on Population, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Board on Life Sciences, Division on Earth and Life Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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STEERING COMMITTEE ON PREPARING FOR 10 BILLION ON THE PLANET: WORKSHOP ON SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
WILLIAM ROUSE (Chair), School of Systems and Enterprises, Stevens Institute of Technology
JOHN BONGAARTS, Population Council
F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, III, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska
W.G. ERNST, Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University
HENRY C. HARPENDING, Department of Anthropology, University of Utah
STEPHEN POLASKY, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota
B.L. TURNER II, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University
MEREDITH A. LANE, Study Director
KEEGAN SAWYER, Program Officer
MAUREEN MELLODY, Rapporteur
MARY ANN KASPER, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
RICHARD H. MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park
ARUN AGRAWAL, School of Natural Resources & Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
JOSEPH ARVAI, Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy, University of Calgary
ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University
WILLIAM CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, MD
F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, III, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska
RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University
KRISTIE L. EBI, School of Public Health, University of Washington
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
DENNIS OJIMA, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University
JONATHAN OVERPECK, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona
STEPHEN POLASKY, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota
J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Center for Environmental Studies, Brown University
JAMES L. SWEENEY, Precourt Energy Efficiency Center, Stanford University
GARY YOHE, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University (until July 2013)
MEREDITH A. LANE, Director
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
LINDA J. WAITE (Chair), Department of Sociology, University of Chicago
CHRISTINE BACHRACH, School of Behavioral and Social Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park
JERE BEHRMAN, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
JASON H. BOARDMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Colorado, Boulder
PETER J. DONALDSON, Population Council
KATHLEEN MULLAN HARRIS, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
MARK D. HAYWARD, Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin
CHARLES HIRSCHMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Washington
HILLARD S. KAPLAN, Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
WOLFGANG LUTZ, World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
ROBERT D. MARE, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles
SARA S. MCLANAHAN, Center for Research on Child Wellbeing, Princeton University
BARBARA BOYLE TORREY, Independent Consultant
MAXINE WEINSTEIN, Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University
DAVID R. WEIR, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
JOHN R. WILMOTH, United Nations
THOMAS PLEWES, Director
BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES
JAMES P. COLLINS (Chair), School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University
ENRIQUETA C. BOND, Burroughs Wellcome Fund (retired), Marshall, VA
ROGER D. CONE, Department of Molecular Physiology and Biophysics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center
SEAN EDDY, Janelia Farm Research Campus, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Ashburn, VA
SARAH C.R. ELGIN, Department of Biology, Washington University, St. Louis, MO
DAVID R. FRANZ, Former Commander, U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Consultant, Frederick, MD
LOUIS J. GROSS, Institute for Environmental Modeling, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee
ELIZABETH HEITMAN, Center for Biomedical Ethics and Society, Vanderbilt University Medical Center
JOHN G. HILDEBRAND, Department of Neuroscience, College of Science, University of Arizona
RICHARD A. JOHNSON, GlobalHelix LLC, Arnold & Porter, LLC (retired), Washington, DC
JUDITH KIMBLE, Molecular Biology and Medical Genetics, University of Wisconsin–Madison
CATO T. LAURENCIN, Connecticut Institute for Clinical and Translational Science and Institute for Regenerative Engineering, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington
ALAN I. LESHNER, Director’s Office, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC
KAREN E. NELSON, Director’s Office, J. Craig Venter Institute, Rockville, MD
ROBERT M. NEREM, Institute for Bioengineering and Bioscience, Georgia Institute of Technology
CAMILLE PARMESAN, Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin
ALISON G. POWER, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University
MARGARET RILEY, Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts
JANIS C. WEEKS, Department of Biology, University of Oregon
MARY WOOLLEY, President’s Office, Research!America, Alexandria, VA
FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published summary as sound as possible and to ensure that the summary meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this workshop summary: F. Stuart (Terry) Chapin, III, Emeritus, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska; Eugenia Kalnay, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park; and Hassan Virji, Director, International START Secretariat, Washington, DC.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this summary was overseen by Kristie L. Ebi, ClimAdapt, LLC, Los Altos, California. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this summary was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this summary rests entirely with the author(s) and the institution.
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Contents
Demographic Variables That Influence Sustainability
Economic and Policy Variables That Influence Sustainability
Integrating Social and Natural Sciences
3 Challenges to the Earth System: Character and Magnitude of the Challenges in 2050
Demographic Trends and Their Consequences
Demographic and Economic Drivers of Consumption and Environmental Change
Urbanization in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities for Environmental Sustainability
4 Challenges to the Earth System: Consequences for the Earth System
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a World of 10 Billion
Future Demand and Supply Pressures on Water: Implications for Agriculture and Other Sectors
Energy, Land, and Water on a 10-Billion-Person Planet: An Integrated Perspective
5 Special Presentation: Extreme Events
X-Events and Human Progress (or, Why the Trend Is Not Your Friend)
6 Resource Distribution and Global Inequality
Global Income Inequality: Historical Trends and Policy Implications for the Future
Population-Inequality-Sustainability: Beyond IPAT
7 Interaction Between Earth and Societal Systems
Demography and Climate Change: Current Understanding, Future Directions