CAN EARTH’S AND SOCIETY’S
SYSTEMS MEET THE NEEDS OF

10 BILLION PEOPLE?

SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP

Maureen Mellody, Rapporteur
Board on Environmental Change and Society
and
Committee on Population
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Board on Life Sciences
Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                    OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Maureen Mellody, Rapporteur Board on Environmental Change and Society and Committee on Population Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education Board on Life Sciences Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by the Presidents’ Committee of the National Acad- emies. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-30634-8 International Standard Book Number-10:  0-309-30634-5 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Cover credit:  Photo of crowd taken June 23, 2007, by photographer James Cridland (CC by 2.0), https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/613445810. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2014). Can Earth’s and Society’s Systems Meet the Needs of 10 Billion People? Summary of a Workshop. M. Mellody, Rapporteur. Board on Environmental Change and Society and Committee on Popu- lation, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Board on Life Sciences, Division on Earth and Life Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the char- ter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstand- ing engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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STEERING COMMITTEE ON PREPARING FOR 10 BILLION ON THE PLANET: WORKSHOP ON SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE WILLIAM ROUSE (Chair), School of Systems and Enterprises, Stevens Institute of Technology JOHN BONGAARTS, Population Council F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, III, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska W.G. ERNST, Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University HENRY C. HARPENDING, Department of Anthropology, University of Utah STEPHEN POLASKY, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota B.L. TURNER II, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University MEREDITH A. LANE, Study Director KEEGAN SAWYER, Program Officer MAUREEN MELLODY, Rapporteur MARY ANN KASPER, Senior Program Assistant v

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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY RICHARD H. MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park ARUN AGRAWAL, School of Natural Resources & Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JOSEPH ARVAI, Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy, University of Calgary ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University WILLIAM CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, MD F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, III, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University KRISTIE L. EBI, School of Public Health, University of Washington MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DENNIS OJIMA, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University JONATHAN OVERPECK, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona STEPHEN POLASKY, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Center for Environmental Studies, Brown University JAMES L. SWEENEY, Precourt Energy Efficiency Center, Stanford University GARY YOHE, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University (until July 2013) MEREDITH A. LANE, Director vi

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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION LINDA J. WAITE (Chair), Department of Sociology, University of Chicago CHRISTINE BACHRACH, School of Behavioral and Social Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park JERE BEHRMAN, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia JASON H. BOARDMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Colorado, Boulder PETER J. DONALDSON, Population Council KATHLEEN MULLAN HARRIS, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill MARK D. HAYWARD, Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin CHARLES HIRSCHMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Washington HILLARD S. KAPLAN, Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque WOLFGANG LUTZ, World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ROBERT D. MARE, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles SARA S. MCLANAHAN, Center for Research on Child Wellbeing, Princeton University BARBARA BOYLE TORREY, Independent Consultant MAXINE WEINSTEIN, Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University DAVID R. WEIR, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JOHN R. WILMOTH, United Nations THOMAS PLEWES, Director vii

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BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES JAMES P. COLLINS (Chair), School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University ENRIQUETA C. BOND, Burroughs Wellcome Fund (retired), Marshall, VA ROGER D. CONE, Department of Molecular Physiology and Biophysics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center SEAN EDDY, Janelia Farm Research Campus, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Ashburn, VA SARAH C.R. ELGIN, Department of Biology, Washington University, St. Louis, MO DAVID R. FRANZ, Former Commander, U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Consultant, Frederick, MD LOUIS J. GROSS, Institute for Environmental Modeling, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee ELIZABETH HEITMAN, Center for Biomedical Ethics and Society, Vanderbilt University Medical Center JOHN G. HILDEBRAND, Department of Neuroscience, College of Science, University of Arizona RICHARD A. JOHNSON, GlobalHelix LLC, Arnold & Porter, LLC (retired), Washington, DC JUDITH KIMBLE, Molecular Biology and Medical Genetics, University of Wisconsin–Madison CATO T. LAURENCIN, Connecticut Institute for Clinical and Translational Science and Institute for Regenerative Engineering, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington ALAN I. LESHNER, Director’s Office, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC KAREN E. NELSON, Director’s Office, J. Craig Venter Institute, Rockville, MD ROBERT M. NEREM, Institute for Bioengineering and Bioscience, Georgia Institute of Technology CAMILLE PARMESAN, Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin ALISON G. POWER, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University MARGARET RILEY, Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts JANIS C. WEEKS, Department of Biology, University of Oregon MARY WOOLLEY, President’s Office, Research!America, Alexandria, VA FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director viii

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers T his workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individ- uals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published summary as sound as possible and to ensure that the summary meets institutional standards for objectivity, evi- dence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this workshop summary: F. Stuart (Terry) Chapin, III, Emeritus, Institute of Arctic Biol- ogy, University of Alaska; Eugenia Kalnay, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park; and Hassan Virji, Director, International START Secretariat, Washington, DC. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc- tive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this summary was overseen by Kristie L. Ebi, ClimAdapt, LLC, Los Altos, California. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this summary was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this summary rests entirely with the author(s) and the institution. ix

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Contents 1 Introduction 1 Recurring Themes, 3 Demographic Variables That Influence Sustainability, 4 Economic and Policy Variables That Influence Sustainability, 7 Suitable Metrics, 10 Carrying Capacity, 11 Integrating Social and Natural Sciences, 11 Structuring a Research Agenda, 12 2 The Human-Earth System 15 Understanding Population in Human-Environment  Relationships: Science Shaped by World Views or Evidence?, 15 Earth as a System, 20 Discussion, 23 3 Challenges to the Earth System: Character and Magnitude of the Challenges in 2050 25 Demographic Trends and Their Consequences, 25 Demographic and Economic Drivers of Consumption and Environmental Change, 28 Urbanization in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities for Environmental Sustainability, 30 Discussion, 32 xi

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xii CONTENTS 4 Challenges to the Earth System: Consequences for the Earth System 37 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a World of 10 Billion, 37 Future Demand and Supply Pressures on Water:  Implications for Agriculture and Other Sectors, 40 Energy, Land, and Water on a 10-Billion-Person Planet: An Integrated Perspective, 42 Discussion, 44 5 Special Presentation: Extreme Events, 47 X-Events and Human Progress (or, Why the Trend Is Not Your Friend), 47 Discussion, 51 6 Resource Distribution and Global Inequality 53 Global Income Inequality: Historical Trends and Policy Implications for the Future, 53 Population-Inequality-Sustainability: Beyond IPAT, 59 Intergenerational Trade-offs, Demographic Metabolism, and the  Long-Term Benefits of Equitable Empowerment in the Near Term, 59 Discussion, 62 7 Interaction Between Earth and Societal Systems 65 The Distribution of Population Health and Consumption  Risk in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries: The Rose Paradigm Revisited, 65 Demography and Climate Change: Current Understanding, Future Directions, 68 Discussion, 71 REFERENCES 73 Appendixes A Workshop Agenda 77 B Workshop Participants 81 C Acronyms 83 D Biographical Sketches of Workshop Presenters 85