COMPLEX OPERATIONAL DECISION
MAKING IN NETWORKED SYSTEMS
OF
HUMANS AND MACHINES

A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                          OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES



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COMPLEX OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING IN NETWORKED SYSTEMS OF HUMANS AND MACHINES A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

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COMPLEX OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING IN NETWORKED SYSTEMS OF HUMANS AND M ACHINES A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH Committee on Integrating Humans, Machines and Networks: A Global Review of Data-to-Decision Technologies Board on Global Science and Technology Policy and Global Affairs

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THE NATIONAL ACDEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. 101380-Data-to-Decisions between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Army. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 13: 978- 0-309-30770-3 International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-30770-8 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Room 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, s haring with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the feder al government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org .

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Committee on Integrating Humans, Machines and Networks: A Global Review of Data-to-Decision Technologies Honorable Jacques S. Gansler (Chair) Professor & Roger C. Lipitz Chair, Director, Center for Public Policy and Private Enterprise, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD Mary (Missy) Cummings Associate Professor, Mechanical Engineering & Materials Science, Duke Universit y, Durham, NC Barbara J. Grosz, Higgins Professor of Natural Sciences, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA Anita Jones, University Professor Emerita, Department of Computer Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA Amy A. Kruse Vice President, Intific, Inc., Alexandria, VA George R. Mangun Dean of Social Sciences, Professor of Neurology and Psychology, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA Tom Mitchell E. Fredkin University Professor, Chair, Machine Learning Department, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA See-Kiong Ng Program Director, Urban Systems Initiative, Institute for Infocomm Research (Singapore), Associate Professor, Singapore University of Technology and Design, Singapore Donald A. Norman Nielsen Norman Group, Prof. Emeritus, Computer Science, Northwestern Universit y, Prof. Emeritus, Cognitive Science and Psychology, University of California, San Diego, Palo Alto, CA Guillermo R. Sapiro Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke Universit y, Durham, NC Ross D. Shachter Associate Professor of Management Science and Engineering, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA James D. Shields President and CEO, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA Liz Sonenberg Professor, Department of Computing and Information Systems, and Pro Vice-Chancellor for Research Collaboration, Department of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia Katia Sycara Research Professor, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon Universit y, Pittsburgh, PA v

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Alyson Wilson Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC Victor Zue Director of International Relations, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Delta Electronics Professor, Electrical Engineering & Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (Committee member through April 3, 2013) Project Staff William O. Berry, Board Director Ethan N. Chiang, Program Officer (through May 2, 2014) Neeraj Gorkhaly, Research Associate (through February 21, 2014) Peter Hunsberger, Financial Officer (through March 14, 2014) Evelyn Strauss, Consultant Writer Patricia S. Wrightson, Study Director Scott Weidman, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, Advisor and Technical Editor to the study vi

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Board on Global Science and Technology Ruth David (Chair) , President and CEO, Analytic Services, Inc., Falls Church, VA Jeffrey Bradshaw, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition, Pensacola, FL Dianne Chong, Vice President, The Boeing Company, Bellevue, WA Nan Jokerst, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke Universit y, Durham, NC Bernard Meyerson, Vice President, IBM Corporation, Yorktown Heights, NY Neela Patel, Director, External Research, Global Pharmaceutical R&D, Abbott Laboratories, Belmont, CA Daniel Reed, Vice President for Research and Economic Development, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA Board Staff William O. Berry, Board Director Patricia S. Wrightson, Associate Board Director Ethan N. Chiang, Program Officer (through May 2, 2014) Neeraj Gorkhaly, Research Associate (through February 21, 2014) Peter Hunsberger, Financial Officer (through March 14, 2014) vii

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Preface and Acknowledgments How might computational systems improve decision making in complex situations? This question prompted the National Ground Intelligence Center of the U.S. Army to sponsor a multidisciplinary and global assessment of the technologies that might help turn data into better decisions. The committee was tasked with studying the several technologies relevant to the topic; reviewing research in these areas conducted inside and outside of the United States; and then integrating those understandings into a multidisciplinary, global, and future-oriented assessment of human-machine collaboration for complex decision making. The committee was multidisciplinary, representing numerous areas of expertise in the natural, physical, and social sciences that have a stake in human-machine collaboration for complex decision making. Although necessary for a project of this scope, this diversity provided additional complexity, as the committee members did not share a lexicon or common understanding of these issues. In the future, a project of this sort would greatly benefit from building a shared vocabulary and understanding of issues. Given these practical and intellectual constraints, the report does not constitute the in- depth technical study that was initially planned. It does offer, however, a valuable assessment of the opportunities and challenges posed by research into human-machine collaboration for decision making, along with suggestions for further research. There is no doubt that continued advances in software, algorithms, representations, hardware, and understanding about the brain and human behavior over the next few decades will make this area of inquiry more relevant, not only to “how” we decide, but indeed, how we live. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: George Bekey, University of Southern California; Jeffrey Bradshaw, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition; Joseph Gray, Oregon Health & Science University; Eric Horvitz, Microsoft Research; Sara Kiesler, Carnegie Mellon University; Peter Norvig, Google Inc.; Robert Sloan, University of Illinois at Chicago; and David Woods, Ohio State University. ix

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Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Sproull, Oracle Labs (Retired). Appointed by the National Academies, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. My thanks go to the committee and staff for all of their efforts. Sincerely, Jacques Gansler, Chair Committee on Integrating Humans, Machines and Networks: A Global Review of Data-to-Decision Technologies x

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CONTENTS SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 5 CHAPER 2 COMPUTING AND DECISION MAKING TODAY 11 OVERVIEW OF DECISION MAKING, 12 BIG DATA, 17 FROM TOOLS TO TEAMMATES, 20 CHAPTER 3 HUMAN ELEMENTS OF TEAM DECISION MAKING 23 DECISION ANALYSIS, 23 HUMAN TEAMWORK, 25 COMMUNICATION: ESSENTIAL AND CHALLENGING, 26 TRUST, 27 HUMAN COGNITION AND MEMORY, 29 ERRORS IN HUMAN JUDGMENT AND DATA, 32 TASK ALLOCATION, 34 CHAPTER 4 MACHINE AND NETWORK ELEMENTS OF TEAM DECISION MAKING 37 MIXED HUMAN-COMPUTER TEAMS, 37 SYSTEM BRITTLENESS AND RESILIENT SYSTEMS, 39 DATA ANALYTICS, 41 DISTRIBUTED NETWORKS, 43 FLEXIBLE HUMAN-MACHINE INTERACTION, 44 METRICS, 45 CHAPTER 5 ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES 49 SENSING, 49 SOFTWARE AGENTS. 51 AGENTS SUPPORTING HUMANS , 52 RESEARCH CHALLENGES IN AGENT SUPPORT 53 NEUROSCIENCE, 54 HUMAN COMPUTATION, 57 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION 61 xi

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APPENDIXES APPENDIX A COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHIES 65 APPENDIX B INTERNATIONAL VISITS 73 SINGAPORE, APRIL 15-19, 2013, 74 GERMANY, AUGUST 1-3, 2013, 76 APPENDIX C REFERENCES 79 xii