COMPLEX OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING IN
NETWORKED SYSTEMS OF HUMANS AND MACHINES
A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH
Committee on Integrating Humans, Machines and Networks:
A Global Review of Data-to-Decision Technologies
Board on Global Science and Technology
Policy and Global Affairs
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
THE NATIONAL ACDEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. 101380-Data-to-Decisions between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Army. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
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Committee on Integrating Humans, Machines and Networks: A Global Review of Data-to-Decision Technologies
Honorable Jacques S. Gansler (Chair)
Professor & Roger C. Lipitz Chair, Director, Center for Public Policy and Private Enterprise, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Mary (Missy) Cummings
Associate Professor, Mechanical Engineering & Materials Science, Duke University, Durham, NC
Barbara J. Grosz,
Higgins Professor of Natural Sciences, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
Anita Jones, University Professor Emerita, Department of Computer Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
Amy A. Kruse
Vice President, Intific, Inc., Alexandria, VA
George R. Mangun
Dean of Social Sciences, Professor of Neurology and Psychology, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA
Tom Mitchell
E. Fredkin University Professor, Chair, Machine Learning Department, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
See-Kiong Ng
Program Director, Urban Systems Initiative, Institute for Infocomm Research (Singapore), Associate Professor, Singapore University of Technology and Design, Singapore
Donald A. Norman
Nielsen Norman Group, Prof. Emeritus, Computer Science, Northwestern University, Prof. Emeritus, Cognitive Science and Psychology, University of California, San Diego, Palo Alto, CA
Guillermo R. Sapiro
Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC
Ross D. Shachter
Associate Professor of Management Science and Engineering, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
James D. Shields
President and CEO, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA
Liz Sonenberg
Professor, Department of Computing and Information Systems, and Pro Vice-Chancellor for Research Collaboration, Department of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Katia Sycara
Research Professor, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
Alyson Wilson
Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Victor Zue
Director of International Relations, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Delta Electronics Professor, Electrical Engineering & Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (Committee member through April 3, 2013)
Project Staff
William O. Berry, Board Director
Ethan N. Chiang, Program Officer (through May 2, 2014)
Neeraj Gorkhaly, Research Associate (through February 21, 2014)
Peter Hunsberger, Financial Officer (through March 14, 2014)
Evelyn Strauss, Consultant Writer
Patricia S. Wrightson, Study Director
Scott Weidman, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, Advisor and Technical Editor to the study
Board on Global Science and Technology
Ruth David (Chair) , President and CEO, Analytic Services, Inc., Falls Church, VA
Jeffrey Bradshaw, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition, Pensacola, FL
Dianne Chong, Vice President, The Boeing Company, Bellevue, WA
Nan Jokerst, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC
Bernard Meyerson, Vice President, IBM Corporation, Yorktown Heights, NY
Neela Patel, Director, External Research, Global Pharmaceutical R&D, Abbott Laboratories, Belmont, CA
Daniel Reed, Vice President for Research and Economic Development, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA
Board Staff
William O. Berry, Board Director
Patricia S. Wrightson, Associate Board Director
Ethan N. Chiang, Program Officer (through May 2, 2014)
Neeraj Gorkhaly, Research Associate (through February 21, 2014)
Peter Hunsberger, Financial Officer (through March 14, 2014)
Preface and Acknowledgments
How might computational systems improve decision making in complex situations? This question prompted the National Ground Intelligence Center of the U.S. Army to sponsor a multidisciplinary and global assessment of the technologies that might help turn data into better decisions. The committee was tasked with studying the several technologies relevant to the topic; reviewing research in these areas conducted inside and outside of the United States; and then integrating those understandings into a multidisciplinary, global, and future-oriented assessment of human-machine collaboration for complex decision making.
The committee was multidisciplinary, representing numerous areas of expertise in the natural, physical, and social sciences that have a stake in human-machine collaboration for complex decision making. Although necessary for a project of this scope, this diversity provided additional complexity, as the committee members did not share a lexicon or common understanding of these issues. In the future, a project of this sort would greatly benefit from building a shared vocabulary and understanding of issues.
Given these practical and intellectual constraints, the report does not constitute the in-depth technical study that was initially planned. It does offer, however, a valuable assessment of the opportunities and challenges posed by research into human-machine collaboration for decision making, along with suggestions for further research. There is no doubt that continued advances in software, algorithms, representations, hardware, and understanding about the brain and human behavior over the next few decades will make this area of inquiry more relevant, not only to “how” we decide, but indeed, how we live.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: George Bekey, University of Southern California; Jeffrey Bradshaw, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition; Joseph Gray, Oregon Health & Science University; Eric Horvitz, Microsoft Research; Sara Kiesler, Carnegie Mellon University; Peter Norvig, Google Inc.; Robert Sloan, University of Illinois at Chicago; and David Woods, Ohio State University.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Sproull, Oracle Labs (Retired). Appointed by the National Academies, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
My thanks go to the committee and staff for all of their efforts.
Sincerely,
Jacques Gansler, Chair
Committee on Integrating Humans, Machines and Networks: A Global Review of Data-to-Decision Technologies
CONTENTS
CHAPTER 2 COMPUTING AND DECISION MAKING TODAY
CHAPTER 3 HUMAN ELEMENTS OF TEAM DECISION MAKING
COMMUNICATION: ESSENTIAL AND CHALLENGING
ERRORS IN HUMAN JUDGMENT AND DATA
CHAPTER 4 MACHINE AND NETWORK ELEMENTS OF TEAM DECISION MAKING
SYSTEM BRITTLENESS AND RESILIENT SYSTEMS
FLEXIBLE HUMAN-MACHINE INTERACTION
CHAPTER 5 ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES