STAR 21

STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE ARMY OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Board on Army Science and Technology

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1992



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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century STAR 21 STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE ARMY OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Board on Army Science and Technology Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This work is related to Department of the Army Contract DAAG29-85-C-0008 (CLIN 10). However, the contents do not necessarily reflect the positions or the policies of the Department of the Army or the U.S. government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Army Science and Technology. STAR 21 : strategic technologies for the army of the twenty-first century / Board on Army Science and Technology, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Research Council. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 0-309-04629-7 : $34.95 1. Military engineering—United States. 2. United States. Army— Equipment. I. Title. II. Title: STAR twenty-one. UG23.N38 1992 623'.0973—dc20 92-8945 CIP Printed in the United States of America First Printing, May 1992 Second Printing, August 1992

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century Preface The Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research, Development and Acquisition [ASA(RDA)] wrote to the Chairman of the Board on Army Science and Technology in March 1988 to request a study under the auspices of the National Research Council. The study's goal would be to assist the Army in improving its ability to incorporate advanced technologies into its weapons, equipment, and doctrine. The time period to be addressed by the study was specified to extend at least 30 years into the future. The three study objectives stated in the request were to (1) identify the advanced technologies most likely to be important to ground warfare in the next century, (2) suggest strategies for developing the full potential of these technologies, and (3) project implications for force structure and strategy of the technology changes. The ASA(RDA) expressed the belief that the expert, independent advice provided by such a study would help the Army in selecting those strategic technologies that offer the greatest opportunity for increasing the effectiveness of forces in the field. The study would also assist the Army in designing current research and development strategies to ensure that such advanced technologies do become available for future Army applications. To conduct the study, the National Research Council organized a Committee on Strategic Technologies for the Army (STAR) with nine science and technology groups and eight systems panels (Figure P-1). These were subordinated to a Science and Technology Subcommittee and an Integration Subcommittee, respectively. In addition, a Tech-

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century FIGURE P-1 Committee for the STAR study.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century nology Management and Development Planning Subcommittee was set up. These three subcommittees reported directly to the study chairman. An Executive Committee aided the study chairman with policy guidance and served as the principal channel for communication with senior Army leadership. The majority of the research and drafting work on the auxiliary reports was performed under the project structure described above. The Science and Technology Subcommittee and its nine science and technology groups were responsible for preparing technology forecast assessments, which are summarized in Chapter 3 and published in full as a separate volume. These assessments present the judgments of their respective science and technology groups on the likely courses of technology development over the next 10 to 20 years. The eight systems panels under the Integration Subcommittee also prepared reports. Each of these system panel reports translates projected technological opportunities into systems capabilities that are likely to be important to the Army in the next 20 to 30 years, given the military context projected by the Technology Management and Development Planning Subcommittee. Findings from these reports are presented in Chapter 2. The Technology Management and Development Planning Subcommittee studied the future operational environment in which the Army might find itself—potential military threats and contingencies and the missions the Army might be called upon to carry out. This subcommittee also reviewed the technology planning and management practices of the Army with the aim of suggesting improvements. Major findings from the subcommittee's report were used in Chapters 1 and 5 of the main report. Near the end of the study, a special committee, with representatives from each of the previously constituted committees, was established to produce the main report and coordinate editorial and review work on the auxiliary reports. This committee was named the Study Committee on STAR (hereafter, the STAR Committee). Figure P-2 shows the organizational structure under which the main report and the auxiliary reports were brought to final form. Each of the technology groups and systems panels retained responsibility for its own report. While considerable effort was made to harmonize the 19 documents, differences in substance and tone remain. The present volume, the STAR main report, reflects the consensus of the STAR Committee. Most of the other participants in the study—more than a hundred in all—agreed with most of the main report. However, complete consensus in such a large group on a

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century FIGURE  P-2 STAR organization for final report preparation.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century topic as broad as that addressed by the STAR study is impractical. Where disagreements are significant, the difference in opinion has been noted in a footnote or textual reference. The ASA(RDA) offered the Army's cooperation in the study, to supply the technology users' perspective, provided such involvement did not compromise the independence of the National Research Council's study and review processes. High-level civilians and military officers from the Department of the Army were assigned to support the study committee. The chief scientist of the Army Materiel Command ensured that each STAR study group received support and involvement from Army personnel as desired. This was accomplished by appointing a group of senior Army liaison personnel, drawn largely from Army laboratories and procurement commands. The individual Army liaison personnel assisted the various study panels in gaining access to Army programs and activities as needed. In addition to the frequent contact provided by the Army liaison personnel, an Army Mission Advisory Group was formed of senior Army and other service personnel, to provide a source of information about projected threats and the future environment. This group, which convened about halfway through the study, provided another means for the STAR participants to interact with Army representatives regarding the progress and appropriate focus of the study. During the course of the study, over a hundred meetings and workshops, lasting one or two days each, were held by the various subcommittees, panels, and groups, so that members could interact with one another as well as receive briefings from the Army and other organizations as needed. In addition, three major coordination meetings were held, during which representatives of the various subcommittees, panels, and groups presented summaries of their activities for the benefit of other study participants, in an effort to identify significant gaps in coverage. The National Academy of Sciences, the National Research Council, and the STAR Study Committee wish to acknowledge their indebtedness to the U.S. Army for its continuous and generous support and encouragement throughout the STAR study. The attention and encouragement of the top managers for Army research and development were of immense benefit. Likewise, the interest of the Army liaison personnel and the help they provided were major factors in making the study possible. The participants also wish to express their gratitude to the STAR study staff at the National Research Council for their care and devotion to the details of arranging meetings and serving as an informa-

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century tion center and command post while also producing and tracking an endless flow of working papers, report drafts, source materials, and correspondence. The views, conclusions, and recommendations expressed in this report are entirely those of the STAR study members and should not be construed to represent the views of the Army or the Army liaison personnel.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century Table of Contents     Executive Summary   1 1   Introduction   24     STAR Study Objectives   24     Challenges for the Army in the Next Century   26     Characteristics of the Threats   35     Characteristics the Army Will Need   38     A STAR Vision of the Future   40 2   System Applications of Advanced Technologies   42     Introduction   42     Systems to Win the Information War   44     Integrated Support for the Soldier   61     Systems to Enhance Combat Power and Mobility   73     Air and Ballistic Missile Defense   90     Systems for Combat Service Support   94 3   Technology Assessments and Forecasts   103     Long-Term Forecast of Research   104     Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics   112     Electronics and Sensors   123     Optics, Photonics, and Directed Energy   136     Biotechnology and Biochemistry   148     Advanced Materials   159     Propulsion and Power   169     Advanced Manufacturing   184     Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences   188

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century 4   Advanced Technologies of Importance to the Army   192     Selection of Most Important Technologies   192     General Conclusions from the Selection Process   200     Enabling Technologies for Notional Systems   201     Comparison with Other Technology Lists   201 5   Technology Management Strategy   204     Introduction   204     Implementation Strategy   205     Focal Values   209     Focal Interests Within the High-Impact Functions   216     The Army's R&D Infrastructure   226     Technology Management and the Army's Requirements Process   233 6   Technology Implications For Force Structure And Strategy   240     Introduction   240     Near-Term Impacts on Force Structure and Strategy   242     Long-Term Impact of Technology on Force Structure and Strategy   247 7   Conclusions And Recommendations   256     Conclusions   256     Recommendations   262     Appendixes         A: Comparison Of Technology Lists   269     STAR Technology and Systems Lists   270     Army Technology Base: Key Emerging Technologies   270     Defense Critical Technologies   276     National Critical Technologies   281     Conclusions   281     References   285     B: Contributors To The STAR Study   287     Glossary   299     Index   303

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century Illustrations FIGURES P-1   Committee for the STAR study.   iv–v P-2   STAR organization for final report preparation.   vii S-1   Relevance of STAR technologies to representative systems concepts.   16–17 1-1   Selection of technologies and advanced systems concepts for STAR.   26 1-2   Changes in DOD total obligation authority for research, development, and acquisition, 1985–1992.   32 1-3   Tactical ballistic missile technology has already spread around the globe.   33 1-4   Spectrum of potential contingency operations.   36 2-1   The STAR focal values apply across functional areas; within functional areas are advanced system concepts selected for their high-technology payoff.   43 2-2   The future C3I/RISTA network will be both highly sophisticated and highly integrated.   46 2-3   Remote sensor targeting capabilities in the future   48 2-4   Advanced system concept for micro UAVs.   50 2-5   Advanced system concept for high-altitude long-endurance UAV.   51 2-6   Tele-operated ground vehicle for surveillance, countermine operations, and so forth.   53 2-7   STAR projection for numeric computing power.   56

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century 2-8   Advanced technology can support the individual soldier in many ways.   62 2-9   STAR road map for biotechnology applied to in-field diagnostics and therapy.   68 2-10   Concept for a robot vehicle as a soldier's aid.   72 2-11   Advanced system concept for Army vehicle with advanced engine (not shown), electric drive, and an electric motor at each wheel.   78 2-12   Concept for an extensible and rotatable gun mount on a direct-fire armored vehicle (battle tank).   81 2-13   Electric gun technology may produce revolutionary advances in artillery range over conventional chemical propellants.   85 2-14   System concept for two-tier (area and point) theater defense against tactical ballistic missiles.   92 2-15   Civilian trauma treatment centers can foster technology transfer between military and civilian medical professionals during peacetime.   95 2-16   Concept for a vehicle-based hoseline fuel system.   97 2-17   Computer hardware and software provide the technology base for simulation, modeling, and computer-aided instruction of both individual soldiers and units.   98 3-1   Events in biodetection: biorecognition and biocoupling.   110 3-2   This microcircuit for an infrared detector that requires no special cooling makes possible night-vision equipment for infantry. Future infrared focal plane arrays will combine even more sophisticated image processing in a miniature sensor device.   111 3-3   Technology based on computer science will help commanders improve combat effectiveness.   114 3-4   Past and projected advances in software systems development.   116 3-5   Concept for a simple military robot that can hold ground.   121 3-6   Projected maximum frequency of single-transistor commercial amplifiers.   125 3-7   Forecast for memory chip technology.   127 3-8   Capabilities of wafer-scale technology.   128 3-9   Forecast for DSP microcomputer technology.   129 3-10   Projection for numerical computing power (1 MFLOPS = 1 million floating point operations per second).   131

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century 3-11   Projection of symbolic computing power (in terms of time required to perform the ''Browse'' benchmark program).   131 3-12   Comparison of tank magnetic signature with environmental magnetic noise.   135 3-13   General concept of an integrated sensor fusion device.   139 3-14   Concept for a future smart focal plane device.   140 3-15   Smart sensor (infrared focal plane array) with Army applications for smart helmet.   141 3-16   A simple optoelectronic integrated circuit.   145 3-17   STAR road map for biosensor system applications.   158 3-18   Toughness levels of organic matrix composites as measured by Izod impact strength.   162 3-19   Continuous-use thermal stability of polymeric matrix materials.   163 3-20   Thin layers of energetic reactants A and B could be separated by inert barrier layers with micron-range thickness.   169 3-21   Technology forecast for a multiple-beam Klystron high-power microwave system.   174 3-22   Technology projection for millimeter-wave FEL sweeping-frequency generators.   175 3-23   Concept for use of high-power microwaves to power a high-altitude surveillance UAV.   177 3-24   Propulsion system size in typical fielded vehicles.   179 3-25   Projected improvements in power density due to IPS design concepts.   180 3-26   Storage capacity of flywheels of different composition (tensile strength in parentheses) compared with lead-acid storage batteries.   183 4-1   Relevance of STAR technologies to representative systems concepts.   202–203 5-1   A focused implementation strategy for technology management.   206 5-2   These seven technology management values apply across Army systems and technology development efforts in all mission areas.   210 5-3   Experience with the Navy's Sparrow missile shows that reliability can be increased over a system's lifecycle, even while unit costs are decreased.   211

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century TABLES 3-1   Current and Projected Capabilities of Acoustic Array Sensor Networks   134 3-2   Propulsion Technology Options   176 A-1   STAR Technology-Relevant Lists   271 A-2   Army Technology Base Key Emerging Technologies   272–274 A-3   Defense Critical Technologies Compared with STAR   277–280 A-4   National Critical Technologies and STAR Technologies   282–284

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century STAR 21 STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE ARMY OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

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