2
System Applications of Advanced Technologies

INTRODUCTION

Eight systems panels were set up for the STAR study. Each panel was tasked with envisioning applications of advanced technologies to systems of importance to the future Army. The panel members were experts in their various application areas; most were drawn from industry. Each panel developed its own approach to performing the assigned task and wrote its own report.

In this chapter the STAR Committee has made use of advanced system concepts that were identified by the systems panels. These systems are exploratory; they were not carried to the point of even preliminary designs. Their purpose is to show what the technologies would be capable of doing and how the Army might use them. Further, the envisaged systems helped in assessing which battlefield functions will benefit most from anticipated new technology.

For some battlefield functions, there was considerable overlap among the various systems panels in systems concepts. To organize this overview of systems more simply, the STAR Committee has categorized the advanced systems concepts according to their principal function, independent of which systems panel(s) discussed them. Five functions with high impact on the Army's capability to conduct ground warfare were selected for review here:

  • winning the information war (C3I/RISTA),

  • integrated support for the soldier,

  • combat power and mobility,



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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century 2 System Applications of Advanced Technologies INTRODUCTION Eight systems panels were set up for the STAR study. Each panel was tasked with envisioning applications of advanced technologies to systems of importance to the future Army. The panel members were experts in their various application areas; most were drawn from industry. Each panel developed its own approach to performing the assigned task and wrote its own report. In this chapter the STAR Committee has made use of advanced system concepts that were identified by the systems panels. These systems are exploratory; they were not carried to the point of even preliminary designs. Their purpose is to show what the technologies would be capable of doing and how the Army might use them. Further, the envisaged systems helped in assessing which battlefield functions will benefit most from anticipated new technology. For some battlefield functions, there was considerable overlap among the various systems panels in systems concepts. To organize this overview of systems more simply, the STAR Committee has categorized the advanced systems concepts according to their principal function, independent of which systems panel(s) discussed them. Five functions with high impact on the Army's capability to conduct ground warfare were selected for review here: winning the information war (C3I/RISTA), integrated support for the soldier, combat power and mobility,

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century air and ballistic missile defense, and combat services support. In the section below for each of these functional headings, key systems concepts presented by the systems panels will be briefly noted. The remainder of each section will present the views of the STAR Committee on the significance of these systems to the Army, the prospects of advanced technology to affect functionality, and specific systems the Committee judged to have the highest payoff for the Army. From among the many systems concepts explored by the systems panels, the STAR Committee selected six as being of especially high potential benefit. These high-payoff systems, listed in Figure 2-1, are discussed further under their respective functions. No single high-payoff system was identified for the functional heading of Integrated Support for the Soldier. This reflects the central importance of the human soldier to the various systems and technology applications considered under this heading. The STAR Committee also found, in its own deliberations and those of the systems panels, that systems and technologies were often evaluated for the same pervasive values, which cut across the requirements of particular systems or even of the broad functions listed above. These focal values are affordability, reliability, deployability, FIGURE 2-1 The STAR focal values apply across functional areas; within functional areas are advanced system concepts selected for their high-technology payoff.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century joint operability, reduced vulnerability of U.S. combat and support systems (stealth and counterstealth capabilities), casualty reduction, and support system cost reduction. Their pervasiveness will be evident from the discussions below; in Chapter 5 they are addressed again as focal interests for technology management. SYSTEMS TO WIN THE INFORMATION WAR The current terminology for systems approaches to essential information-related functions includes C3I (command, control, communication, and intelligence) and RISTA (reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition). Different systems panel reports use both terms without clearly distinguishing between them. This report will use the combination C3I/RISTA to refer generally to all systems referred to by either term. Key System to Win the Information War The systems panels envisioned the following advanced systems concepts for the general function of winning the information war. C3I/RISTA was addressed by the Electronics Systems Panel in three notional warfighting scenarios: large-scale operations, mid-level combat operations, and a futuristic view of how urban guerilla war might be fought. In each context the systems Panel envisioned a C3I system that was highly robust, automated, and integrated. The component functions of the system include gathering information, evaluating and presenting this information, providing support for making command decisions based on the presentation, and distributing command decisions to implementing units. The Special Technologies Systems Panel envisioned a system of similar functions and capabilities under the heading of RISTA. The Electronics Systems Panel considered target acquisition as a separate topic. Robot vehicles for C3I/RISTA include sensors, processors, navigation, communication, and displays, as well as the vehicles themselves, which may be either airborne or ground-mobile. Electronic systems architecture is a top-level, general information-processing architecture that will provide the standards and protocols needed to network standard serial (von Neumann) computers, signal processors, parallel processors, neural networks, and optical computers into one large ''system of systems.'' The software provided with this systems architecture would include operating systems, communications utilities, application and user utilities, and user interfaces.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century Space-based systems were envisioned by the Electronics Systems Panel as tactical satellites that can be launched on demand for battlefield-specific tasks. The panel envisioned four such systems for distinct missions: communication, battle management, intelligence, and force projection. The force projection capabilities included electronic countermeasures and support measures (ECM/ESM). The basic system architecture is independent of whether the satellites are launched for battlefield-specific tasks or are joint-use satellites or national technical assets. General Comments To prevail in battle, the Army must gather, evaluate, and act on information more quickly than its adversary. The success of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf war illustrates this point. The STAR Committee expects that information superiority will continue to be a key factor in future Army operations. Against a well-equipped opponent fighting with superior numbers on his home territory, it may well be the most important factor in deciding the outcome. Given the context of future threat characteristics and national policies described in Chapter 1, C3I/RISTA requirements will expand greatly. Fortunately, the continuing revolution in hardware, software, and system architecture should provide the technology base to meet these requirements. Today, targeting and control operations for direct-fire systems are performed in the same vehicle that carries the weapon (e.g., an attack helicopter or a tank). Each vehicle includes an internal (human) command-and-control function and therefore must support and protect the human crew. This increases the size, complexity, and cost of each vehicle. Yet in the past physical separation of the targeting and control elements from the weapon was impractical for several reasons; one of the most important was the lack of a secure and reliable command, control, and communication system. C3I/RISTA technology and functions are likely to change markedly during the next three decades. New technologies, largely driven by commercial markets, will make possible new systems of value to the Army. The Army must remain alert to these opportunities as they emerge and, more importantly, not limit itself by rigid requirements that inhibit change. The STAR Committee anticipates that within three decades—and possibly much earlier—all Army operations will be supported by a highly sophisticated, highly integrated C3I/RISTA network (Figure 2-2). This network, which will supply needed information to and

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century FIGURE 2-2 The future C3I/RISTA network will be both highly sophisticated and highly integrated. (Concept courtesy of Magnavox Corporation.) from all units on and around the battlefield, will provide new capabilities to the Army. Particularly important among these will be the capability to separate weapons physically from the system that performs targeting. The Army will be the principal ground force committed to the types of operations expected to occur in the future. It should therefore play a significant role in planning for the next generation of C3I/RISTA systems. An active Army role in this planning is critical whether the C3I/RISTA system concept is of Army origin or the product of a joint service effort. If a consistent Department of Defense (DOD)-wide effort does not appear, the Army should initiate—and be willing to remain the lead agency for—such an effort. Operational improvements can derive from both new architectures and new technologies. Significant progress is expected in sensors, computing and data storage, software algorithms, and communications techniques. Significant cost reductions should occur because of broad commercial development and application of the basic technologies.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century The more detailed examination below of C3I/RISTA systems divides the topic into four major functional segments, or subsystems: sensors, communications, command and control, and information management. There is also a separate discussion of space-based systems and their role in Army C3I/RISTA. The Role of Sensors The need for information about the enemy, the terrain, and the weather is paramount in any military operation. Human intelligence aside, the means for gathering this information depend on some form of sensor positioned to receive electromagnetic radiation, sound, or other information-holding energy from the object of interest. The sensor segment of C3I/RISTA includes the various sensors that perform reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, and target acquisition functions. The integrated C3I/RISTA systems of the future will include optical, infrared, radar, acoustic, and radio intercept receivers. They will provide comprehensive geographic coverage over a broad range of the electromagnetic spectrum. The in-theater sensor segment will be augmented by the sensors of national assets, sensors outside the theater, and sensors operated in the theater by other military organizations. Electronic devices are the fundamental components of sensor systems. They play a role in front-end receivers and transmitters and in components for signal processing and automatic target recognition. Electronics technology for both civilian and military sensor applications is developing rapidly. Two aspects stand out as especially important for military use: the ability to form an image and the ability to respond to more than one stimulus. The former is important in identifying particular objects. The latter renders stealth by the enemy less effective. Passive optical and infrared systems provide information on direction (bearing) and on spectral distribution and intensity; laser and radar systems provide information on reflection intensity, range, range extent, velocity, and direction. Millimeter-wave synthetic aperture radars provide high-resolution images that are responsive to the material properties of targets. These systems can be configured so that the active and passive components share the same optics and thus can provide pixel-registered images in a multidimensional space, which allows multidimensional imagery. Acoustic sensors can provide information regarding frequency and direction of detected signals. Future C3I/RISTA systems will include smart processors, derived from

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century model-based or neural network algorithms, that are able to fuse information from multiple sensor types. These smart processors for multiple stimuli also will provide the technology base for smart weapons. An application area in which advanced sensors might achieve a major tactical breakthrough is in identification of friend, foe, or neutral (IFFN). Sensor technologies on the horizon may allow sensor systems to distinguish friend from foe without requiring a human decision-maker in the loop, thereby reducing response time and human error. Opportunities to achieve an IFFN capability by technical means alone should be pursued. As an example, if the sensors and sensor data-processing technologies forecast for "brilliant" weapons and munitions make automatic target recognition possible, these advances will not only enhance the economic effectiveness of the systems but will also contribute to solving the IFFN problem. Sensor Placement Depending on circumstances and the system of which the sensor is a part, a sensor's distance from the object of interest may vary from a few feet to the remoteness of space (Figure 2-3). In addition to the factor of distance, information collection with sensors requires that they be placed in appropriate positions relative to the object of interest; for example, many sensor types require an unrestricted line of FIGURE 2-3 Remote sensor targeting capabilities in the future.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century sight to the object. Of particular importance, of course, is placement that gives the ability to sense activity in areas to which soldier access is denied—for instance, behind enemy lines. One solution is to place the sensors in a remote location, such as space, that still provides a view of the denied territory. Spaced-based systems and their potential role in Army C3I/RISTA are discussed in a later section of this chapter. Other solutions are to preposition the sensors in the area of interest or transport them there by overt or covert means. Because overt action can attract hostile reaction, methods of transporting sensors by means that either avoid detection or are relatively insensitive to enemy reaction must be sought. Unmanned air and ground systems are emerging as effective means of achieving one or both of these approaches to sensor placement. Robot Vehicles for C3I/RISTA Much of the C3I/RISTA information of the future Army will be obtained by satellites and high-flying aircraft using sensors that report to upper echelons, which are often located at the rear of deployed forces. After some delays and processing, selected data will flow to forward-located, small units. Besides this support, the small, forward unit will need, as it always has, highly detailed and timely information about terrain and the disposition of opposing forces. As the means to acquire such timely and high-resolution data, the STAR Committee foresees an important role for small robot vehicles operated by, and reporting directly to, the small, forward units. The C3I/RISTA systems envisioned by the STAR systems panels include remotely controlled or robot sensors that require minimal human supervision. For several reasons, vehicles for future C3I/RISTA should be unmanned. First, in comparison with manned helicopters, which usually must also carry weapons, robot vehicles can be smaller, less expensive, more survivable, and longer enduring per mission. Second, they can acquire the needed information without pilot exposure. Command and control, managed by humans, can be performed from rear areas far from the position where the sensor performs its task. Depending on the vehicle's mode of travel, these robot sensor systems are either unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) or unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs). Many of the battlefield sensors for the integrated C3I/RISTA system can be carried on various types of UAVs. Miniature UAVs would be deployed in large numbers. The smallest UAV might weigh no

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century more than a few pounds and have a wing span of less than 2 ft (Figure 2-4). Each would carry a single sensor, weighing perhaps a few ounces, for periods of about a day. Deployed in groups, with each UAV carrying a different type of sensor, these vehicles would provide a robust capability for close-in C3I/RISTA. Targets could be viewed from different aspects, in different portions of the electronic spectrum, and in different sensory domains. By virtue of the large number of mini-UAVs, this C3I/RISTA element would be difficult to counter by attack, jamming, or use of low-observable technology to hide ground targets. The miniature UAVs would survive because of their small size and agility in flight. Costly special treatments to give low observability would not be necessary. Costs would be minimized by using standardized airframe subsystems, produced in large quantities (thousands). Another example envisioned by the STAR Airborne Systems Panel is an advanced form of the current high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) aircraft (Figure 2-5). It could be extremely useful in providing continuous wide-area surveillance and bistatic illumination. It FIGURE  2-4 Advanced system concept for micro UAVs.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century FIGURE  2-5 Advanced system concept for high-altitude long-endurance UAV. could also act as a communication relay. The envisioned HALE UAV would weigh about 4,400 lb and carry a payload of about 400 lb; it would have a wingspan of perhaps 70 ft with a configuration typical of conventional high-performance sailplanes. The HALE aircraft could remain at an altitude of about 60,000 ft for several days. With this altitude and endurance, only a few HALE UAVs would be needed to support a typical theater of operations. Attempts to develop UAV systems in the past have been hindered by a variety of problems, such as unreliability, complexity (requiring large, specialized operating crews), inadequate sensor and communications technology, and an inability to operate day and night under all weather conditions. The several STAR panels concerned

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century with this application area concluded that the technologies to correct these problems are either in hand or developing rapidly enough to justify predicting the future utility of such systems as important integral elements of the C3I/RISTA sensor segment. Key technologies for UAV structure and propulsion include advanced composite materials; lightweight, high-endurance, high-efficiency propulsion systems; advanced fluid dynamics codes; and advanced test facilities. Other technologies are related to UAV payload, such as advanced solid state components, imaging sensors, parallel processor computer architectures, ultra-high-reliability components, signature control, and data links with high bandwidth and low probability of intercept. Two areas in which significant progress has been made, and undoubtedly will continue, are robotics and artificial intelligence. This progress includes both improved technological performance and greater social acceptance. Robot systems will receive high-level mission orders, then will autonomously control a vehicle throughout its mission; the only human intervention may be to change mission orders. Telepresence systems may also use artificial intelligence to process voluminous sensor information and display it in ways easily understood by the remote human operator. The UGVs envisioned by the STAR systems panels would be somewhat larger than the mini-UAV sensor systems but would have much longer mission durations (several days rather than hours). They would probably be deployed in groups. As envisioned, a UGV might weigh 4 to 20 kg and would carry a sophisticated array of sensors and processors weighing 1 to 4 kg (Figure 2-6). The sensor and processing suite would include vehicle navigation as well as C3I/RISTA functions. These UGVs would take advantage of their ground environment to remain undetected in enemy territory. They would use low-observable techniques for this purpose. The vehicles would require sophisticated driving and navigation systems to traverse the battlefield, remain undetected, and still perform C3I/RISTA functions at close range. Communications The communications segment of C3I/RISTA systems must provide information to whoever (or whatever) needs it, quickly and with reasonable security. Information transfer between the various C3I/RISTA elements on the battlefield and beyond is necessary for every type and level of battle management.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century FIGURE 2-14 System concept for two-tier (area and point) theater defense against tactical ballistic missiles. (Courtesy Public Affairs Office, Strategic Defense Initiative Organization.) In addition to the range of threat systems, an integrated tactical air/missile defense system also has a sequence of action phases: detection, intercept of incoming missile or craft, and counterstrike attack against remaining launchers, airfields, and so on. The larger network must provide threat warning, command and control of interception, and guidance of counterstrikes. Therefore, although the TBM threat may be the most challenging, the larger defense system must be much broader than just a counter to this threat. Implications for Defense Systems With such a range of threats to defend against, the rational response is a multiplicity of specific defense systems: a proliferated system for UAVs, an area system for air-breathing cruise weapons or manned aircraft, area coverage for ballistic weapons, and probably point defenses to protect critical installations and respond to stealthy threats that have penetrated other defenses. Any effective solution will involve other services operating with the Army through a joint command. Therefore, the systems used by the various services must be designed to work

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century together, regardless of which service is responsible for developing and fielding the hardware for a particular system. The implication that emerges is one the STAR Committee wishes to stress: the Army cannot be an effective developer and operator of its share of hardware for this integrated system without participating in the creative analysis of the total problem and the definition of the architecture within which all individual systems must operate. Given the importance of success in this task to future Army operations, the STAR Committee suggests that the Army take the lead in what obviously must be an interservice national effort. Defense Architecture and Systems The above line of reasoning shows the importance of a single overall architecture that integrates all of the future air and missile defense systems into a system of systems. The specifics of this integration await definition. For defense against TBMs, space-based sensors will be used almost certainly to detect missile launch and possibly to track the missiles' trajectories. A framework that combines functions of command, control, and communication (C3) with battle management must link space-based and ground-based sensors to the system element that controls engagements, commanding the fire units that launch and control the interceptors. A functionally analogous framework will be necessary to defend against air breathers. An early approach to the surface-based elements of such a system could combine concepts successfully applied already in the Army's Patriot system and the Navy's Aegis system. Many of the systems that will be needed as elements in an integrated "system of systems" for air and missile defense could evolve as enhancements of systems already fielded. The most important requirement is for the Army to work with the other services to arrive at a common plan for the system's architecture. Among the system elements that will be needed are the following: an area surveillance, warning, and tracking system to detect and, if not track, at least cue other systems to a TBM launch (a space-based system appears to be the most likely candidate for this mission); a similar area system to locate and track hostile air-breathing aircraft and weapons and to assign interceptor systems; an effective IFFN system to permit friendly use of contested air space;

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century command, control, communication, and battle management capabilities to use interceptor assets for adequate defense of the battlefield or area to be protected; and adequate interceptor weapons and local systems for control of interception. Technologies Applicable to Air and Missile Defense Elements To achieve an integrated "system of systems," the following advanced technologies would be required: High-speed microelectronics are essential to the sensors and high-speed processors. Advanced composite materials are needed to construct heat-tolerant, high-speed-flight vehicles that are able to meet the compressed time lines of future intercept systems. Bistatic radars may be useful in detecting and tracking stealthy air vehicles. Small electronics that can tolerate high acceleration are needed to permit guided projectiles to be gun launched should this form of propulsion prove superior to guided rockets for point defense. If guns prove to have advantages over rockets for point defense, pulsed power sources will be needed. Multispectral sensors will be essential for extremely fast hit-to-kill interceptors. They may also be the foundation for advanced noncooperative IFFN systems. SYSTEMS FOR COMBAT SERVICE SUPPORT Health and Medical Support Systems Advances in battlefield medicine were discussed above as elements of integrated support for the soldier. The STAR Committee expects that the Army will continue to make major strides in medical and health care capabilities that can be of tremendous benefit to the U.S. civilian medical establishment as well as to the care and treatment of the Army's soldiers. New vaccines, prosthetics, and synthetic tissue replacements, including artificial blood, could be developed for use in Army corps hospitals and disseminated to the wider medical community. Products of biotechnology, such as the diagnostic molecules and enhanced immunocompetence discussed under Integrated Support for the Soldier, will find civilian applications. Even the bio-

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century technology for CTBW defense may find spin-off applications in protecting workers cleaning up hazardous material spills or dump sites. The greatest area for synergy, however, probably will be in the treatment of trauma patients. Civilian hospitals offer a training ground for trauma specialists as well as for the development of new trauma methods (Figure 2-15). These hospitals have been hard pressed to support trauma centers. Supporting these hospitals with Army personnel can benefit both the Army and the civilian community. Using Army personnel in civilian trauma centers would maintain a trained capability that would be readily available when needed. In addition, the Army can expect to care for significant numbers of civilian casualties in some future conflicts. The Army should plan to meet this need. This will create requirements for more traditional military medical resources and for other medical skills (such as pediatric specialties). Again, working with U.S. civilian hospitals may provide a synergistic way to develop and maintain the needed capability at reasonable cost, while providing critically needed services to the U.S. population in peacetime. FIGURE 2-15 Civilian trauma treatment centers can foster technology transfer between military and civilian medical professionals during peacetime. (Courtesy of the Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems, Baltimore, Maryland.)

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century Nonmedical Theater Support Systems Among the systems concepts explored by the Support Systems Panel, the following illustrate how nonmedical combat service support will be affected by changes in technology: Mapping. Refers to a digital terrain mapping system with a terrain data base system; deployable workstations to update and use the data base; and direct access to terrain data sensors, including space-based sensors. Shelter. Refers to improved tactical shelters with reduced weight, short erection time, better thermal insulation, some degree of protection from chemical agents, and controlled infrared and radio frequency signatures. Ammunition. Refers to a computer-based, "paperless" system for control and distribution of ammunition, automated materiel transfer, increased use of intelligent munitions, and higher-energy explosives. Fuel. Includes an automated fuel tracking system, reliance on a single fuel type, engines designed to run on multiple kinds of fuels, and an armored, low-observable forward resupply vehicle. The Mobility Systems Panel described a vehicle-based hoseline system for delivering fuel to combat vehicles on a dynamic battlefield (Figure 2-16). Maintenance and Repair. Includes reliability measures such as fault-diagnostic software embedded in the system; an improved failure analysis system; and an efficient system for control, storage, and rapid distribution of modular replacement components and parts. C3 for Support Systems. Functions include (1) tracking containers and giving near-real-time locations of stocks in motion, (2) managing supplies and giving near-real-time inventory status and distribution, (3) enabling real-time transportation crisis planning, and (4) controlling spares distribution in theater. Training Systems Individual soldiers will be no more effective than the training they receive. Future training and instruction will emphasize the new skills needed by soldiers who will face diverse and unpredictable threats. Future soldiers must understand the capabilities of their equipment and how to use those capabilities in a variety of circumstances. Emerging simulation technologies and individual computer-aided instruction (ICAI) will provide opportunities to enhance soldier performance (Figure 2-17). These tools can be applied to both general training and preparation for specific operations.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century FIGURE 2-16 Concept for a vehicle-based hoseline fuel system. (Courtesy of U.S. Army Tank and  Automotive Command.) Simulation as a Training Technology Simulation technologies, which are expected to continue improving, will provide an effective means to teach both general system capabilities and their use in diverse situations. The current SIMNET (simulation network) system has been demonstrated to be an effective training device for teaching procedures to small groups of soldiers. Similarly, training simulators such as the Conduct of Fire Trainer (COFT) expand this technology to procedures training for weapons crews and individual soldiers. The Army should continue its emphasis on technologies to improve learning and retention. Areas of emphasis will be geo-specific simulations of combat environments, which will simulate the key characteristics of probable sites of deployment. Advances in computers and data storage during the next decades will vastly improve the reality and effectiveness of simulation training. ICAI systems will make procedures training more efficient by tailoring instruction to the student's individual needs and progress. As the Army moves to a force structure more dependent on the National Guard and the Reserves, ICAI systems will become more attractive for individual soldier training. The Army faces the important challenge of better preparing its forces for personal contact with indigenous civilians and for combined operations with allied forces. To be effective in these situa-

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century tions, our soldiers must have a reasonable understanding of the local culture. One way to achieve this understanding is to learn the local language. Future ICAI systems may be able to help Army personnel acquire foreign language skills more quickly. The STAR Special Technologies Panel forecasts a significant increase in our knowledge of techniques for improving human skills. The Army already has a strong core capability in training technologies; it is appropriately positioned to participate in this field. How- FIGURE 2-17 Computer hardware and software provide the technology base for simulation, modeling, and computer-aided instruction of both individual soldiers and units. (Reprinted by permission, from Mark Miller, Integrating Intelligent Tutoring, in Intelligent Instruction by Computer, Taylor & Francis. Copyright © 1992 by Taylor & Francis. All rights reserved.)

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century ever, it should bring together its equipment, design, and human factors engineers to work more closely as a team. Civic Assistance Training The Army has a special responsibility to support U.S. policies by providing services that do not directly involve combat or combat support. For example, the Army has developed considerable expertise in providing assistance to civic administrators in foreign nations in building their internal capabilities. This assistance has been provided during periods of deployment prior to major combat operations, while combat was in progress (particularly in low-intensity combat operations), and after combat has ceased. The administrative areas in which these services are provided include military forces, civil authority, transportation infrastructure, and medical services. The STAR Committee anticipates that the Army will need greater capabilities to position personnel in foreign countries in order to establish or reinforce civil authority and critical services. Whether teaching military or medical skills, the training program and the personnel must consider the local culture. The training of Army personnel can be improved to better prepare them for the culture they will encounter. Technology to help U.S. soldiers acquire foreign language skills will be particularly useful for this purpose. Anticipated improvements in training systems will allow programs to be adapted rapidly to the skills and language of indigenous personnel. Simulation will be extremely beneficial in teaching doctrine and tactics. Two other applicable technologies are the area of artificial intelligence concerned with automated translation of natural language and the computing architectures of neural nets. Within reasonable constraints on vocabulary and context, these technologies may produce a practical means of instantaneous interpretation between languages, thereby overcoming a major impediment to close cooperation between persons who do not speak a common language. Training of medical and health care personnel will be far more challenging. These same technologies can provide a solid basis for some medical training, but the need will remain for highly skilled Army medical personnel to work with local personnel during and immediately after training. The suggestion made above for assigning Army medical personnel to civilian trauma centers will improve their skills in working with local medical personnel while they maintain their own level of proficiency and stay abreast of changes in technology.

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century Simulation as a Research, Development, and Analysis Tool The section above on training has stressed the importance of simulation technology for training, an application area in which the Army has without doubt made substantial use of simulation technology. However, the potential of simulation technology for R&D, which several STAR panels noted (Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics; Mobility Systems; Personnel Systems) has not been explored as fully by the Army. Multiple-unit simulation exercises set in unfamiliar environments or in operational contexts in which the Army has not always succeeded—such as low-intensity conflict or counter-insurgency operations—could contribute to development and test of doctrine and tactics, the effectiveness of prospective weapons and systems, and training of the units involved. The Mobility Systems Panel noted that SIMNET (the Army's Simulation Network) is used almost entirely for training and not at all for R&D. The panel suggests that SIMNET simulations could be useful input to design decisions on such difficult trade-offs as combat vehicle speed and agility versus armor vulnerability. The STAR Committee foresees a dramatic increase over the next 20 years in high-realism simulation for large numbers of near-simultaneous interactions of the kind characteristic of the modern battlefield. Furthermore, simulation systems are an area where the United States can expect to maintain a long technology lead. Large-scale simulators that are able to model a modern battlefield with a high degree of similitude can be a technological capability that differentiates U.S. forces from potential opponents. A large-scale simulation capability would allow strategic planners to explore alternatives for U.S. policy implementation, while commanders could use it to explore the means of accomplishing major military objectives, all within the response time required of contingency operations. However, the resources for the simulation (detailed terrain data, data bases of friendly force and opposing force order of battle, logistical support, etc.) must be on call. Those who would use it under emergency conditions must be well acquainted with the system's range of capability beforehand if they expect to rely on it when wargaming is over and warfighting is imminent. The Personnel System The expanding diversity of Army missions will increase the need for specialized training and expertise. Finding the time for training

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century will become harder as specialist roles are shifted to reserve units and rapid response becomes critical. Today, the Army benefits from a buyer's market as its forces are being reduced. Prospective soldiers are typically recruited on the basis of their ability to perform a variety of Army assignments. Psychometric testing is used primarily to screen candidates. The projected demographic trends indicate, however, that in the future the Army will have a smaller pool of individuals from which to recruit. Civilian economic opportunities will continue to compete with Army recruitment and will make retention of Army personnel more difficult. The STAR Committee suggests that a significant shift in the Army's personnel system can help both recruitment and retention. This changed personnel system would accept a wider range of volunteers but use an increased amount of psychometric testing for classification rather than just selection. Testing that began before individuals joined the Army would continue after they were enlisted. This system would probably require abandoning or curtailing the current practice of guaranteeing assignments prior to enlistment. The STAR Committee anticipates that remedial treatment of organic physical problems or lack of such cognitive skills as reading or numerical fluency will be available to broaden the pool of candidates acceptable for service. Medical progress may allow correction of diabetes, hypertension, cystic fibrosis, sickle cell anemia, and drug or alcohol dependency. Education and training technologies may allow similar treatment for deficiencies in cognitive skills. Emerging methods in physical training and conditioning may allow enlistment of individuals who today would be unfit for service. This anticipated progress in medical and training technologies can offset some of the demographic trends toward a smaller pool of acceptable candidates. The STAR Committee also envisions a personnel system that would encourage experienced, trained soldiers to continue in the service. This change will be important primarily because the Army will have a growing need for soldiers who fully understand the broad capabilities of their systems and can use them innovatively, rather than simply apply rote rules for routine use. This expertise can only be developed over time. Further, the historical preference for younger soldiers (under age 30) was based in part on their superior sensory and physical capabilities; these are the capabilities to which advanced technologies can best be applied to augment individual soldier performance. The envisioned Army personnel system would make continued service by both active and reserve personnel more attractive. It would encourage individual soldiers to remain in one assignment for

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STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century longer periods, so they could acquire more experience. Research on means of providing feedback to workers on their accomplishments and on areas in need of improvement will improve productivity and motivation. A new area for use of psychometric techniques is in assessment of unit-level skills, interactions, and performance, rather than just testing for individual characteristics. Career counseling for personnel at all levels can make use of advances in psychometric testing and knowledge-based diagnostic analyses to map individuals' aptitudes, acquired skills, and interests into available career opportunities.