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PAPERBACK price:$19.00 add to cart Rights & Permissions Free PDF Access Sign in to download PDF book and chapters Free Resources Display this book on your site! Related Titles Protecting People and Buildings from Terrorism: Technology Transfer for Blast-effects Mitigation Predicting Outcomes from Investments in Maintenance and Repair for Federal Facilities Other Related Titles Uses of Risk Analysis to Achieve Balanced Safety in Building Design and Operations (1991) Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems (CETS) Citation Manager Export the bibliographic data for this book in your chosen format Web Search Builder Use this book's key terms to search within this book, across our collection, or across the Web. Skim This Chapter Skim this chapter and use this chapter's key terms to search within this book. Reference Finder Paste in your own text to find books that relate to your topic. Citation Manager . "Appendix D: Probablistic Risk Assessment." Uses of Risk Analysis to Achieve Balanced Safety in Building Design and Operations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1991. Please select a format: Page 63   E-mail Share on facebook Facebook Share on delicious Delicious Share on stumbleupon Stumble Share on twitter Twitter More Sharing ServicesMore The following HTML text is provided to enhance online readability. Many aspects of typography translate only awkwardly to HTML. Please use the page image as the authoritative form to ensure accuracy. APPENDIX D PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT42 The term Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) refers to the framework and analytical methods widely used for assessing risk in the U.S. nuclear power industries. PRA utilizes event trees and fault trees in a structured analysis process that can be described in five general steps: Identifying various hazards and the frequency of various levels of each hazard (initiating event). Identifying the things that could fail or go wrong and their probability, given the various hazards and hazard levels, including the consequential damage associated with each failure. This step involve the development of all of the scenarios of events that could occur, and their sequence and resultant damage. (The event tree is a tool for this.) Developing the model for each event in the sequences to indicate which of the event's component parts could fail and lead to failure or degradation of the event. (The fault tree is a tool for this.) Quantifying the fault trees and event trees to determine the frequency of each damage state, and thereby determining the ranked order of scenario and the component contributors to the different damage state's frequency. 42   This explanation was provided by one of the peer reviewers of the committee's draft report. Page 63 Front Matter (R1-R16) 1. Introduction (1-6) 2. Risk and its Analysis in and around Buildings (7-16) 3. Using Risk Analysis to Enhance Building Safety and Protect Property Values (17-26) 4. Opportunities for Enhancing Safety and Protecting Values (27-34) 5. Findings and Conclusions (35-40) References and Selected Bibliography on Data and Methods for Risk Analysis of Constructed Facilities (41-48) Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff (49-52) Appendix B: Current Recognition of Risk and Risk-Based Design at Selected Federal Agencies (53-56) Appendix C: Illustrative Risk Analysis Procedures (57-62) Appendix D: Probablistic Risk Assessment (63-64)

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OCR for page 63
Uses of Risk Analysis to Achieve Balanced Safety in Building Design and Operations APPENDIX D PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT42 The term Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) refers to the framework and analytical methods widely used for assessing risk in the U.S. nuclear power industries. PRA utilizes event trees and fault trees in a structured analysis process that can be described in five general steps: Identifying various hazards and the frequency of various levels of each hazard (initiating event). Identifying the things that could fail or go wrong and their probability, given the various hazards and hazard levels, including the consequential damage associated with each failure. This step involve the development of all of the scenarios of events that could occur, and their sequence and resultant damage. (The event tree is a tool for this.) Developing the model for each event in the sequences to indicate which of the event's component parts could fail and lead to failure or degradation of the event. (The fault tree is a tool for this.) Quantifying the fault trees and event trees to determine the frequency of each damage state, and thereby determining the ranked order of scenario and the component contributors to the different damage state's frequency. 42   This explanation was provided by one of the peer reviewers of the committee's draft report.

OCR for page 64
Uses of Risk Analysis to Achieve Balanced Safety in Building Design and Operations Determining the uncertainty in the results by calculating a distribution of damage state frequency, using the distribution of possible hazard frequency and failure probability.

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fault trees