gy firms will begin to partner with Japanese companies for access to new intellectual capital by the end of the decade.

It is likely that the future scenario will reflect U.S.-based development of health-care-related technologies and products with partnering with Japanese companies for access to Japanese markets. At the same time, nonhealth care technology can be expected to develop more quickly in Japan and U.S.-based companies will seek strategic alignment with Japanese companies to access these technologies for the U.S. and worldwide markets.

To understand any scenario for the future of the U.S. biotechnology industry, one needs to be reminded of the intimate linkage the industry has had to date with a capital market, a market that has generally been very supportive of biotechnology firms. Should this change in the United States during the 1990s, there will be more Japanese linkages as sources of capital, and, therefore, more strategic alignments.

The overall conclusion drawn by the NRC working group is that current trends will continue but that there may be some new developments in Japan that bear careful analysis and response. U.S. industry has some very important assets, but these must be managed in order to ensure that it remains strongly competitive in global biotechnology markets.

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