On the strength of those briefings, and reviews of documents and reports prepared by DOE, EIA and the national laboratories, the committee assessed, in broad terms, the efficacy of the models configured by DOE to support the NES activities. At the request of the Secretary of Energy, the committee's assessment was documented in its first advisory report issued in January 1991 (NRC, 1991a; Appendix B). In light of the foregoing circumstances and what the committee learned, the committee reinterpreted its charge to best utilize its resources (see Appendix A-2) and included this charge as part of its first advisory report. The committee also met with the Secretary of Energy and apprised him of its findings, including its reinterpreted charge. Subsequently, starting with its fourth meeting in January 1991, the committee focused its efforts exclusively on the development of a NEMS, the subject of this report.

This final report by the committee addresses NEMS applications and requirements, proposes a modeling architecture to satisfy these requirements, and suggests strategies for NEMS implementation.

STUDY GENESIS AND BACKGROUND

In a statement before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, July 26, 1989, the Secretary of Energy, Admiral James D. Watkins, explained President Bush's plan for development of the NES. The Secretary directed the Deputy Under Secretary for DOE's Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis to coordinate the development of the first edition of the NES, issued in February 1991 (U.S. DOE, 1991a).

Toward developing the requisite data, analytical tools, and forecasting capabilities for the NES, the Secretary also announced that DOE would seek the advice of the National Academy of Sciences on how best to proceed with NEMS development.

I have asked the National Academy of Sciences to examine our plans for the development of the NEMS and ensure that it will, to the maximum extent possible, address the critical energy issues before us. These include major environmental issues, strategic considerations and technology research and development…

NEMS development will be an ongoing effort. It will probably take several years to improve DOE's modeling capability. I am determined that the NEMS will become the best modeling system that we can employ to analyze the issues facing us.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

When this study began, one of its goals was to examine the ability of the existing DOE modeling system to analyze issues for energy policy and forecasts. The committee also broadly addressed the role of DOE's modeling in the development of the 1991 NES. These



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