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The National Energy Modeling System (1992)

Chapter: Front Matter

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
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The National Energy Modeling System

Committee on the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Engineering Board

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

in cooperation with the

Committee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1992

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
×

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DE-ACO1-90PE79065 from the U. S. Department of Energy.

Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 91-68549

International Standard Book Number 0-309-04634-3

S-476

Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
×

COMMITTEE ON THE NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM

PETER T. JOHNSON, Chairman, Former Administrator,

Bonneville Power Administration, McCall, Idaho

DENNIS J. AIGNER, Dean,

Graduate School of Management, University of California, Irvine

DOUGLAS R. BOHI, Director,

Energy and Natural Resources Division, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

JAMES H. CALDWELL, Jr., Consultant,

Maryland

ESTELLE B. DAGUM, Director,

Time Series Research Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

DANIEL A. DREYFUS, Vice President,

Strategic Planning and Analysis, Gas Research Institute, Washington, D.C.

EDWARD L. FLOM, Manager,

Industry Analysis and Forecasts, Amoco Corporation, Chicago, Illinois

DAVID B. GOLDSTEIN, Senior Staff Scientist,

Natural Resources Defense Council, San Francisco, California

LOUIS GORDON, Professor,

Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles

VELLO A. KUUSKRAA, President,

Advanced Resources, Arlington, Virginia

JAMES W. LITCHFIELD, Director of Power Planning,

Northwest Power Planning Council, Portland, Oregon

STEPHEN C. PECK, Director,

Environment Division, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California

MARC H. ROSS, Professor,

Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

EDWARD S. RUBIN, Professor,

Departments of Engineering and Public Policy and Mechanical Engineering, and

Director,

Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

JAMES L. SWEENEY, Chairman,

Department of Engineering-Economic Systems, and

Director,

Energy, Natural Resources, and the Environment Program, Center for Economic Policy Research, Terman Engineering Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California

DAVID O. WOOD, Director,

Center for Energy Policy Research, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

Staff

MAHADEVAN (DEV) MANI, Director,

Energy Engineering Board and Study Director (until February 1991)

JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer and Study Director

(as of February 1991)

JUDITH AMRI, Administrative Associate

PHILOMINA MAMMEN, Senior Project Assistant

ANN COVALT, Consulting Editor

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
×

ENERGY ENGINEERING BOARD

JOHN A. TILLINGHAST, Chairman,

Tiltec, Portsmouth, New Hampshire

DONALD B. ANTHONY, Consultant,

Houston, Texas

RICHARD E. BALZHISER,

Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California

BARBARA R. BARKOVICH,

Barkovich and Yap,

Consultants,

San Rafael, California

JOHN A. CASAZZA, CSA Energy Consultants,

Arlington, Virginia

RALPH C. CAVANAGH,

Natural Resources Defense Council, San Francisco, California

DAVID E. COLE,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan

H. M. HUBBARD,

University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii

ARTHUR E. HUMPHREY,

Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania (to February 1991)

CHARLES IMBRECHT,

California Energy Commission, Sacramento, California

CHARLES D. KOLSTAD,

University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois

HENRY R. LINDEN,

Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Illinois

JAMES J. MARKOWSKY,

American Electric Power Service Corporation, Columbus, Ohio (to February 1991)

SEYMOUR L. MEISEL,

Mobile R&D Corporation (retired), Princeton, New Jersey

DAVID L. MORRISON,

The MITRE Corporation, McLean, Virginia

MARC H. ROSS,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan

MAXINE L. SAVITZ,

Garrett Ceramic Component Division, Torrance, California

HAROLD H. SCHOBERT,

The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

GLEN A. SCHURMAN,

Chevron Corporation (retired), San Francisco, California

JON M. VEIGEL,

Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

BERTRAM WOLFE,

General Electric Nuclear Energy, San Jose, California

Staff

ARCHIE L. WOOD, Executive Director,

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, and Director, Energy Engineering Board (to January 1991)

MAHADEVAN (DEV) MANI, Director,

Energy Engineering Board (as of January 1991)

KAMAL ARAJ, Senior Program Officer

GEORGE LALOS, Senior Program Officer

JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer

JUDITH AMRI, Administrative Associate

THERESA FISHER, Senior Project Assistant

PHILOMINA MAMMEN, Senior Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
×

DEDICATION

This report is dedicated to the memory of David O. Wood, a good friend and colleague. David contributed greatly to energy and economic modeling through his commitment to conceptual rigor and open debate, and especially through his own intellectual integrity. He served as a member of the Committee on the National Energy Modeling System until April 1991.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
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3

 

NEMS Architecture

 

45

   

Overview

 

45

   

Modular Architecture

 

48

   

Advantages of a Modular System

 

49

   

Disadvantages of Modular Systems

 

50

   

Integrating Model Operation

 

50

   

Proposed Modules

 

55

   

The Control Module

 

56

   

Fossil Fuel Supply Modules

 

56

   

Energy Conversion Modules

 

58

   

Renewable Energy Conversion Modules

 

59

   

The International Energy Module

 

61

   

The Interindustry Growth Model

 

63

   

Energy Demand Modules

 

64

   

Reduced-Form Models

 

74

   

Satellite Modules

 

75

   

Report Writers

 

77

   

NEMS Compared to Current DOE Modeling

 

78

   

NEMS Treatment of Conceptual Issues

 

79

   

Market Disequilibrium

 

79

   

Uncertainty

 

80

   

Contingent Strategies

 

81

   

The Formation of Expectations

 

82

   

Environmental Constraints

 

84

   

Operational Issues for NEMS Development

 

85

   

Recommendations

 

87

4

 

Implementation of NEMS

 

89

   

Lead Organization for the NEMS

 

89

   

Suggestions for Implementation

 

90

   

Employee Environment

 

91

   

Management of NEMS Development

 

93

   

Motivation and Usefulness

 

95

   

Recommendations

 

95

 

 

Appendixes

 

 

A-1

 

Scope of Work

 

97

A-2

 

Committee Charge

 

101

B

 

First Advisory Report

 

103

C

 

The Mission and Functions of the Department of Energy

 

113

D

 

Illustrative Case Studies

 

119

E

 

A Brief Description of DOE and EIA Models

 

129

F

 

Meetings and Activities

 

135

 

 

References and Bibliography

 

141

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
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List of Tables

2-1

 

DOE Policy Issues

 

30

2-2

 

Environmental Issues Relevant to NEMS

 

39

3-1

 

Available Data and Information, Industrial Energy Demand

 

71

List of Figures

2-1

 

Scheme of the National Energy Analysis System and the EIA's scope within it

 

24

2-2

 

Scheme of the interface between the NEMS and the National Energy Analysis System

 

25

3-1

 

Simple representation of proposed NEMS architecture

 

47

3-2

 

Illustration of the convergence of price to a supply-demand equilibrium

 

52

3-3

 

Illustration of multiple equilibria

 

53

3-4

 

Proposed NEMS architecture in greater detail

 

55

3-5

 

Modeling a system-wide environmental constraint

 

86

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
×

Acknowledgments

The committee gratefully acknowledges the help of the following individuals: Secretary of Energy James D. Watkins; Deputy Secretary of Energy W. Henson Moore; Energy Information Administrator Calvin Kent; Abraham Haspel, Robert C. Marlay, Eric Petersen, Peter Saba, and Linda Stuntz, U.S. Department of Energy; Linda Carlson, John Conti, Ronald Earley, Bob Eynon, Ed Flynn, Douglas R. Hale, John Holte, Mary J. Hutzler, W. Calvin Kilgore, Erik Kreil, Fred Mayes, John Pearson, Lawrence A. Pettis, Susan Shaw, C. William Skinner, and Scott Sitzer, Energy Information Administration; Sharon Belanger and Roger Nail, AES Corporation; Peter Blair, John Gibbons, and Henry Kelly, Office of Technology Assessment; Jae Edmonds, Batelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories; David Gray, David Morrison and Glen Tomlinson, Mitre Corporation; Susan Hickey, Bonneville Power Administration; Eric Hirst, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Philip Hummell, Rich Richels, and Colleen Hyams, Electric Power Research Institute; Mark Inglis, ICF Resources; Ralph L. Keeney, University of Southern California; Dan Kirshner, Environmental Defense Fund; Lester Lave, Carnegie-Mellon University; Terry Morlan, Northwest Power Planning Council; Dale Nesbitt, Decision Focus, Inc.; Daniel Nix, California Energy Commission; Andrew Plattinga, Resources for the Future; and Miron Straf and Eugenia Grohman, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1992. The National Energy Modeling System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1997.
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This book addresses the process and actions for developing enhanced capabilities to analyze energy policy issues and perform strategic planning activities at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on an ongoing basis.

Within the broader context of useful analytical and modeling capabilities within and outside the DOE, this volume examines the requirements that a National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) should fulfill, presents an overall architecture for a NEMS, identifies data needs, and outlines priority actions for timely implementation of the system.

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