of economic losses. As you know, the German reunification would require hundreds of billions of dollars to reinvigorate East Germany. That, of course, is going to have an impact in terms of the interest rate in the same way that the Tokyo earthquake will have. That will drive the interest rate up, and resources will be diverted away from other borrowing countries to East Germany. That is a very good case, and a great test of what we predict about these ripple effects. If that is the only event, I do not think that will affect the capital market very much. But if you combine that with, let us say, the economic reform in the Soviet Union, you may be talking about several trillion dollars.

Let us also not lose sight of the fact that right now, the less-developed countries already owe $1 trillion. When comparing $50, $60 billion with the overall size of the world capital market, of which $1 trillion is only a small portion, that is not going to have any major effect. Like the figures that I gave about World War I, the impact on the interest rates is a very good indirect test of the predictions. The effects will be small unless the events all occur at the same time.

QUESTION: Apparently, the markets at this point seem to agree with that; the markets are remaining stable.