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TEACHER SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND QUALITY

Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases.

Proceedings of a Conference

Erling E. Boe and Dorothy M. Gilford, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

and

Division of Education, Training, and Employment

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1992



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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. TEACHER SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND QUALITY Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. Proceedings of a Conference Erling E. Boe and Dorothy M. Gilford, Editors Committee on National Statistics and Division of Education, Training, and Employment Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This project was supported with funds from the the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 92-50735 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04792-7 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20418 B033 Printed in the United States of America Copyright 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS BURTON H. SINGER (Chair), Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University NORMAN M. BRADBURN, National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago MARTIN H. DAVID, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison ANGUS S. DEATON, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University NOREEN GOLDMAN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University LOUIS GORDON, Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California JOEL B. GREENHOUSE, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University ROBERT M. HAUSER, Department of Sociology. University of Wisconsin, Madison GRAHAM KALTON, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan WILLIAM A. MORRILL, Mathtech, Inc., Princeton, New Jersey DOROTHY P. RICE, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco JOHN E. ROLPH, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California DONALD B. RUBIN, Department of Statistics, Harvard University MIRON L. STRAF, Director

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. This page in the original is blank.

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. Contents CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS   ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS   xiii PART I INTRODUCTION   1     INTRODUCTORY REMARKS Christopher T. Cross   3     CONFERENCE BACKGROUND Emerson J. Elliott   7     THE NCES PERSPECTIVE Paul Planchon   9     CHOOSING TEACHERS AND CHOOSING TO TEACH Albert Shanker   12 PART II SUMMARY   19     SUMMARY OF CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS Erling E. Boe and Dorothy M. Gilford   21     Introduction   21     Overview of Teacher Supply, Demand, and Shortage   24     Teacher Quality: A Major Policy Issue   32     TSDQ Projection Models   43     Teacher Data Bases   53     General Suggestions for Action   60     References   60

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. PART III POLICY ISSUES   63     THE PROBLEM OF IMPROVING TEACHER QUALITY WHILE BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND Mary M. Kennedy   65     Introduction   65     Policy Efforts to Improve the Supply of Quality Teachers   69     Supply of Quality Credentials   71     Supply of Teachers with High Tested Ability   77     Supply of Demographically Representative Teachers   82     Supply as a Function of the Quality of Professional Lives of Teachers   87     Supply of High-Quality Classroom Teaching Practice   92     Summary   99     References   103     DISCUSSION James B. Stedman   109     DISCUSSION Arthur E. Wise   117     GENERAL DISCUSSION   123 PART IV MODELS   127     MODELS FOR PROJECTING TEACHER SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND QUALITY: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF THE ART Stephen M. Barro   129     Introduction   129     Models of the Demand for Teachers   132     Models of the Supply of Retained Teachers   148     Models of the Supply of Entering Teachers and the Supply-Demand Balance   179     Overview: The State of the Art and Prospects for Improvement   199     References   203     DISCUSSION Gus Haggstrom   210     DISCUSSION Ronald E. Kutscher   217     GENERAL DISCUSSION   222

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. PART V DATA BASES   225     STATE DATA ON TEACHER SUPPLY, EQUITY, AND QUALIFICATIONS Rolf K. Blank   227     Breadth of State Data on Teachers   228     Quality and Timeliness of Teacher Data   230     Linked Teacher Data from States   232     Example of Uses of State Data for National Analyses   232     Summary   240     References   240     DEVELOPING A REGIONAL DATA BASE ON EDUCATORS IN THE NORTHEAST: PROBLEMS, PRODUCTS, AND PROSPECTS James M. Wilson III and David Quinby   242     Introduction   242     Data Collection and Data Processing   243     Utility of Administrative Data for Educator Supply, Demand, and Quality Models   246     Prospects for the Northeast Regional Data Base   248     References   249     OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION OF NATIONAL DATA BASES RELEVANT TO TEACHER SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND QUALITY Thomas L. Hilton   253     WHO WILL TEACH? Richard J. Murnane   262     Who Prepares to Teach   262     Who Enters Teaching   265     How Long Teachers Stay in Teaching   265     Who Returns to Teaching   268     Summary   270     DISCUSSION: TEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESEARCH WITH STATE DATA BASES David W. Grissmer   271     GENERAL DISCUSSION   281 PART VI CONCLUSION   285     DIRECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE Lee S. Shulman   287

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. APPENDIXES   291 A   Conference Agenda and Attendees   293 B   National Data Bases Related to Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality   299 C   Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality Variables: National Data Base Sources   318

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. Contributing Authors STEPHEN M. BARRO is president of SMB Economic Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. Since earning a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 1974, he has conducted research in education finance, teacher supply and demand, and comparative education, as well as in other topics. His monograph entitled Cost-of-Education Differentials Across States was published in 1991. ROLF BLANK is project director, State Education Assessment Center, Council of Chief State School Officers. He has conducted research in education and program evaluation on such topics as magnet schools and high school organization and management. He is currently directing research on systems of indicators of science and mathematics education in the fifty states. He earned a Ph.D. in sociology from Florida State University in 1976. ERLING E. BOE served as codirector of the conference. A professor of education at the University of Pennsylvania, he has conducted research on the role of incentives in behavior and in psychometrics, as well as on other topics. He is currently investigating teacher supply, retention, transfer, and attrition topics with national data bases and state policies designed to restructure public education. He received a Ph.D. degree in experimental psychology from Washington State University in 1962. CHRISTOPHER T. CROSS is executive director-education initiative, The Business Roundtable, Washington, D.C. Previously he was assistant secretary for educational research and improvement in the U.S. Department of

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. Education. As such, he was responsible for the department's efforts in statistics gathering, assessment, research and development, and information dissemination. Cross's other prior experiences include serving as vice chairman of Macro Systems, Inc., a Maryland-based professional services company; president of University Research Corporation, a Maryland-based professional services research and information services company; Republican staff director and senior education consultant for the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Education and Labor: and deputy assistant secretary for legislation (education) in the U.S. Department of Health. Education and Welfare (1970–1973). His publications and presentations include an elementary/secondary education data redesign project for the National Center for Education Statistics in 1985. EMERSON J. ELLIOTT is acting commissioner of education statistics, U.S. Department of Education, and director of the National Center for Education Statistics. A federal agency administrator and policy analyst, he headed the Department of Education planning and evaluation office and issues analysis staff and directed a Congressionally mandated school finance study. He was the first deputy director of the National Institute of Education and has headed the Institute for Educational Leadership educational staff seminar. Prior experience with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget included serving as chief of the Education Branch and a deputy chief of the Human Resources Programs Division. He received an M.P.A. from the University of Michigan. DOROTHY M. GILFORD served as codirector of the conference. Formerly, she served as director of the National Center for Education Statistics and as director of the mathematical sciences division of the Office of Naval Research; currently she is director of the National Research Council's Board on International Comparative Studies in Education. Her interests are in research program administration, the organization of statistical systems, education administration, education statistics, and human resource statistics. A fellow of the American Statistical Association, she has served as vice president of the association and chairman of its committee on fellows. She is a member of the International Statistics Institute. She received B.S. and M.S. degrees in mathematics from the University of Washington. GUS W. HAGGSTROM is a statistical consultant at RAND. Since earning a Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of Illinois in 1964, he has conducted research in education and human resources, statistical methods and research design, marriage and the family, as well as in other topics. His recent work has included studies of high school graduates, scientists and engineers, and assessing teacher supply and demand.

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. THOMAS L. HILTON is senior research scientist, Division of Cognitive Assessment Research, Educational Testing Service. Since earning a Ph.D. in educational psychology from Harvard University in 1956, he has conducted research on student achievement in high school and college and on the origins and supply of scientists and engineers, as well as on other topics. He is currently pursuing studies in talent flow in higher education and persistence in science of high-ability minority students. MARY M. KENNEDY is professor of education and director of the National Center for Research on Teacher Education at Michigan State University. She has conducted evaluative research of the Chapter 1 Compensatory Education Program and the Education for All Handicapped Children Act of 1975, as well as research in other topics. Her recent work includes publications on teacher education. She received a Ph.D. in educational psychology from Michigan State University, RONALD E. KUTSCHER is associate commissioner, Office of Employment Projections, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since completing graduate study in economics at the University of Illinois in 1956, he has conducted research on economic and technological development, including implications for employment patterns and skill and education requirements of the work force, as well as in other topics. He is currently directing development of medium-term economic projections of the U.S. economy and the preparation of the Occupational Outlook Handbook. RICHARD J. MURNANE is professor of education at the Graduate School of Education, Harvard University. Since earning a Ph.D. in economics from Yale University in 1974, he has conducted research in labor markets in education, school effectiveness and quality, as well as in other topics. He recently chaired the National Research Council's Committee on Indicators of Precollege Science and Mathematics Education. His recent research has concerned the operation of teacher labor markets and the connections between education and the productivity of the work force. PAUL PLANCHON is associate commissioner for elementary/secondary education statistics of the National Center for Education Statistics. Since earning a M.A. in sociology and anthropology from Kent State University in 1966, he has served in several federal government positions conducting survey research on physicians and civil litigation and on educational, welfare, and income statistics, as well as on other topics. He is currently directing a number of projects on large-scale national survey research and data base development in elementary and secondary education.

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. ALBERT SHANKER has served as president of the American Federation of Teachers, AFL-CIO, since 1974. Among a large number of appointments, he has been a public school teacher, president of the International Federation of Free Teachers' Unions, and a member of the National Academy of Education and the President's Education Policy Advisory Committee. Since December 1970, he has written a weekly column, ''Where We Stand,'' on education, labor, economic, and human rights issues, for the Sunday New York Times. LEE S. SHULMAN chaired the Conference on Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality. He is the Charles E. Ducommun professor of education at Stanford University. He served on the Faculty of Education at the Michigan State University before moving to Stanford University in 1982. He has conducted research on teaching and teacher education, as well as on other topics. He is currently investigating new strategies for the assessment of teaching at the elementary and secondary education levels. He is past president of the American Education Research Association and the current president of the National Academy of Education. He received a Ph.D. in educational psychology from the University of Chicago in 1963. JAMES B. STEDMAN is a specialist in social legislation for the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress. Since earning an M.A. in history from Harvard University, he has performed nonpartisan research for members and committees of Congress in teacher reform, school reform, school desegregation, as well as in other topics. He has recently authored a report entitled Teachers: Issues for the 102d Congress. JAMES M. WILSON, III, is senior project analyst and principal investigator for the Northeast Teacher Supply and Demand Study of the Institute for Social and Economic Research of the University of Massachusetts. He has conducted research on various aspects of teacher supply and demand, population forecasting, and minority access to and retention in postsecondary education. He is currently pursuing various studies of teacher supply and demand in the Northeastern region and the Virgin Islands. He earned an M.S. in resource economics from the University of Massachusetts in 1984. ARTHUR WISE is president of the National Council for the Accreditation of Teacher Education. Since earning a Ph.D. in educational administration from the University of Chicago, he has conducted research on legislated learning, school finance, and teacher supply and demand, as well as in other topics. He also currently serves as chair of the board of directors of the National Foundation for the Improvement of Education and as chair of the Government Liaison Committee of the American Educational Research Association.

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. Acknowledgments The Committee on National Statistics and the Division of Education, Training, and Employment gratefully acknowledge the contributions of the many individuals who participated in the Conference on Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality and gave generously of their time and knowledge. The conference was convened in March 1991 at the request of the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), the Office of Educational Research and Improvement of the U.S. Department of Education. The center's generous support of the conference and the participation of NCES staff members in the conference were essential to its success and are gratefully acknowledged. In particular, thanks are due to Emerson Elliott, acting commissioner of NCES, for his introductory remarks on the background to and purposes of the conference; to Paul Planchon, associate commissioner of NCES, for framing the relationship of the conference to NCES programs and plans; and to a number of other NCES staff members who contributed to planning the conference and these proceedings. The contributions of several individuals to the identification and analysis of national data bases leading to the preparation of the tables of Appendix C are also recognized with appreciation. Alan Fechter of the National Research Council presented a helpful discussion of this topic at the conference and provided consultation leading to the development of this appendix. In addition, the initial review and organization of national data bases presented by W. Ross Brewer, of the Vermont Department of Education, and Stephen P. Coelen and James M. Wilson III, of the University of Massachusetts, served as the basis for developing the framework and content of Appendix C.

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Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases. On behalf of all the conference participants, I want to acknowledge with gratitude the contributions of the staff. Jane Phillips and Laura Lathrop managed the logistical arrangements for the conference. Jane cheerfully and efficiently handled the numerous rounds of revisions in preparing the conference proceedings. Laura drafted many of the data base descriptions and identified the data elements relevant to teacher supply, demand, and quality in these data bases. Dorothy Gilford and Erling Boe served as codirectors of the conference. They shared responsibility for the conference, with Dorothy assuming primary responsibility for organizing the conference and administrative matters and Erling for preparing the draft proceedings. The conference report also benefited from the thoughtful comments of reviewers and the editorial assistance of Christine McShane and Eugenia Grohman of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Lee S. Shulman, Chair Conference on Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality