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MODELING

R. Costanza and D. Mauriello

The group examined the case studies with regard to their use or nonuse of models. Each was evaluated according to the answers to these questions:

  • Were models used?

  • If models were not used, would they have improved the assessment?

  • If models were used, could their use have been improved?

The group also considered some general issues regarding the use of mathematical models in risk assessment and risk management.

Use of Models in the Case Studies
Tributyltin

Models were not used in the hazard identification phase. They were used to predict the rate of leaching of TBT into the water from ships painted with antifouling paint. The decision to ban the use of the paints in Virginia was based only on hazard assessment. Such a decision might not have been made if the vulnerable organisms had not included commercially valued species.

Agricultural Chemicals

This case study described a rigorous approach to hazard identification and exposure-response assessment. Models were extensively used in determinations of the sensitivity of end- point species to pesticide exposure. The case study paper pointed out that little basic knowledge is available on the overall ecology of agroecosystems and that this would be a fertile subject for future modeling efforts. The discussion group agreed that larger-scale models are required to deal with geographic variability and to guide future research in pesticide ecotoxicology.



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APPENDIX F 324 original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. MODELING R. Costanza and D. Mauriello The group examined the case studies with regard to their use or nonuse of models. Each was evaluated according to the answers to these questions: • Were models used? • If models were not used, would they have improved the assessment? • If models were used, could their use have been improved? The group also considered some general issues regarding the use of mathematical models in risk assessment and risk management. Use of Models in the Case Studies Tributyltin Models were not used in the hazard identification phase. They were used to predict the rate of leaching of TBT into the water from ships painted with antifouling paint. The decision to ban the use of the paints in Virginia was based only on hazard assessment. Such a decision might not have been made if the vulnerable organisms had not included commercially valued species. Agricultural Chemicals This case study described a rigorous approach to hazard identification and exposure-response assessment. Models were extensively used in determinations of the sensitivity of end- point species to pesticide exposure. The case study paper pointed out that little basic knowledge is available on the overall ecology of agroecosystems and that this would be a fertile subject for future modeling efforts. The discussion group agreed that larger-scale models are required to deal with geographic variability and to guide future research in pesticide ecotoxicology.