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  • Models are perceived as being too difficult to use and requiring too many data;

  • Risk managers do not understand the models and have little faith in their results;

  • The models are too difficult for risk assessors to use routinely;

  • Models sometimes lack credibility with decision-makers, because of lack of validation or conflicting results from alternative models.

The group agreed on four possible steps to increase the use of models in ecological risk assessment:

  • Development of a collaborative approach to risk assessment that includes both managers and modelers (risk assessment should be regarded as a process, not a discrete event);

  • Development of models with easier-to-use front ends or expert systems to ease risk assessors into the routine use of models;

  • Development of databases in tandem with models and risk assessments to provide means of validation and evaluation;

  • Encouragement of quantification of uncertainty through the use of Monte Carlo methods and multiple models that incorporate alternative process formulations.

UNCERTAINTY

R. Kimerle and E. P. Smith

Evaluation of uncertainty is a critical component of all risk assessments. Sources of uncertainty include limitations in knowledge, limitations in the use of models to approximate the physical world, and limitations in the parameters that are estimated and used in models to predict risk.

Uncertainties Identified In the Case Studies

The discussion group identified three general categories of uncertainty common to all six case studies:



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APPENDIX F 327 original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. • Models are perceived as being too difficult to use and requiring too many data; • Risk managers do not understand the models and have little faith in their results; • The models are too difficult for risk assessors to use routinely; • Models sometimes lack credibility with decision-makers, because of lack of validation or conflicting results from alternative models. The group agreed on four possible steps to increase the use of models in ecological risk assessment: • Development of a collaborative approach to risk assessment that includes both managers and modelers (risk assessment should be regarded as a process, not a discrete event); • Development of models with easier-to-use front ends or expert systems to ease risk assessors into the routine use of models; • Development of databases in tandem with models and risk assessments to provide means of validation and evaluation; • Encouragement of quantification of uncertainty through the use of Monte Carlo methods and multiple models that incorporate alternative process formulations. UNCERTAINTY R. Kimerle and E. P. Smith Evaluation of uncertainty is a critical component of all risk assessments. Sources of uncertainty include limitations in knowledge, limitations in the use of models to approximate the physical world, and limitations in the parameters that are estimated and used in models to predict risk. Uncertainties Identified In the Case Studies The discussion group identified three general categories of uncertainty common to all six case studies: