THE FUTURE OF AEROSPACE

Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Honor of Alexander H. Flax Home Secretary

National Academy of Engineering

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1993



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The Future of Aerospace THE FUTURE OF AEROSPACE Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Honor of Alexander H. Flax Home Secretary National Academy of Engineering NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1993

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The Future of Aerospace The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. This volume consists of papers and speakers' remarks presented during a commemorative symposium in honor of outgoing NAE Home Secretary Alexander H. Flax. The symposium, entitled "The Future of Aerospace," was held 28 February 1992. The interpretations and conclusions expressed in the symposium papers are those of the authors and are not presented as the views of the council, officers, or staff of the National Academy of Engineering. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 93-83945 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04881-8 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 B-137 Copyright 1993 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The Future of Aerospace Contents     Alexander H. Flax: Highlights of an Engineering Career   1     Defense Aerospace and the New World Order William J. Perry   7     The Future of Manned Spaceflight Aaron Cohen   15     Aviation: The Timeless Industry Brian H. Rowe   29     Higher-Order Technology: Applying Technical Excellence to New Airplane Development Albertus D. Welliver   37     The Future of Rotary-Wing Aircraft Richard M. Carlson   45     Authors   65     Symposium Program   71     Symposium Participants   73

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The Future of Aerospace Preface Few technological advances have affected the lives and dreams of individuals and the operations of companies and governments as much as the continuing development of flight. In the United States alone there are, on average, more than one million commercial enplanements a day, and air freight, once a "special express" service, is now the common form of transport for many goods. Air power and the battlefield control offered by airborne equipment and personnel are increasingly decisive elements of military conflicts, and outer space is still a boundless frontier for human and scientific exploration. And the technological frontiers of what is possible and what is likely continue to recede in front of us even as we advance. From space exploration to package transport, from military transport to passenger helicopter use, from passenger jumbo jets to tiltrotor commuter planes, the future of flying is still rapidly developing. The essays in this volume survey the state of progress and assess prospects for the future along several fronts of this constantly evolving frontier. More than that, they commemorate the life's work of Alexander H. Flax, who has contributed to the technological developments in many fields of aerospace

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The Future of Aerospace engineering and to the institutions that guide those developments. For eight years as home secretary to the National Academy of Engineering, Al Flax also guided the Academy's membership affairs, helped oversee the Academy's diverse study program, and was a steady source of sound advice. It was a pleasure to work with him. So many of us have prized his friendship over many decades. The five essays here are adapted from remarks prepared by their authors for a symposium held in Al Flax's honor at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering on 28 February 1992. Thus, it is important to acknowledge first the work of those authors, all members of the National Academy of Engineering, for making this volume possible and for contributing to our better understanding of aerospace issues. The participants in this symposium included many knowledgeable and leading figures in the areas of Al Flax's career. They contributed greatly to the formal discussion of the papers and in the informal occasions afforded by the symposium. There are a few others to whom thanks are also due. Melvin Gipson and Maribeth Keitz, on the staff of the NAE Program Office, led in organizing the symposium. Dale Langford and Bette Janson prepared the volume for publication. Bruce Guile, director of the Program Office, provided direction and oversight for the project. H. GUYFORD STEVER FORMER NAE FOREIGN SECRETARY SYMPOSIUM CHAIRMAN