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what they really mean. We must try to display more realistic estimates of risk to show a range of probabilities. To help do this, we need new tools for quantifying and ordering sources of uncertainty and for putting them into perspective.

Ten years later, however, EPA has made little headway in replacing a risk-assessment "culture" based on "magic numbers" with one based on information about the range of risk values consistent with our current knowledge and lack thereof.

As we discuss in more depth in Chapter 5, EPA has been skeptical about the usefulness of uncertainty analysis. For example, in its guidance to those conducting risk assessments for Superfund sites (EPA, 1991f), the agency concludes that quantitative uncertainty assessment is usually not practical or necessary for site risk assessments. The same guidance questions the value and accuracy of assessments of the uncertainty, suggesting that such analyses are too data-intensive and "can lead one into a false sense of certainty."

In direct contrast, the committee believes that uncertainty analysis is the only way to combat the "false sense of certainty," which is caused by a refusal to acknowledge and (attempt to) quantify the uncertainty in risk predictions.

This chapter first discusses some of the tools that can be used to quantify uncertainty. The remaining sections discuss specific concerns about EPA's current practices, suggest alternatives, and present the committee's recommendations about how EPA should handle uncertainty analysis in the future.

Nature Of Uncertainty

Uncertainty can be defined as a lack of precise knowledge as to what the truth is, whether qualitative or quantitative. That lack of knowledge creates an intellectual problem—that we do not know what the "scientific truth" is; and a practical problem—we need to determine how to assess and deal with risk in light of that uncertainty. This chapter focuses on the practical problem, which the 1983 report did not shed much light on and which EPA has only recently begun to address in any specific way. This chapter takes the view that uncertainty is always with us and that it is crucial to learn how to conduct risk assessment in the face of it. Scientific truth is always somewhat uncertain and is subject to revision as new understanding develops, but the uncertainty in quantitative health risk assessment might be uniquely large, relative to other science-policy areas, and it requires special attention by risk analysts. These analysts need to allow questions such as: What should we do in the face of uncertainty? How should it be identified and managed in a risk assessment? How should an understanding of uncertainty be forwarded to risk managers, and to the public? EPA has recognized the need for more and better uncertainty assessment (see EPA memorandum in Appendix B), and other investigators have begun to make substantial progress with the difficult computations that are often required (Monte Carlo



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