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Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994)
Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology (BEST)

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. "Appendix F: Uncertainty Analysis of Health Risk Estimates." Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1994.

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Page 478

TABLE 3 Probablity Distribution Selection



Influential Parameter index




Parameter Symbol

Probability Distribution

Type

Parameters

1

Qe1 - Arsenic

Lognormal

image' = -7.76, image' = 0.39

2

Qe2 - Cadmium

Lognormal

image' = -7.73, image' = 1.06

3

Qe3 - Chromium

Lognormal

image' = -5.25, image' = 1.30

4

a-Chrom (VI)

Normal

image = 0.06, image = 0.015

5

Ts

Uniform

a = 318, b = 328

6

Vs

Uniform

a = 10.4, b = 15.6

7

Ta

Uniform

a = 278, b = 288

8

Vd

Normal

image = 0.005, image = 0.0025

9

Vw

Normal

image = 0.1, image = 0.05

10

ORf

Normal

image = 0.47, image = 0.047

11

ds

Lognormal

image' = -3.10, image' = 0.75

12

ED

Lognormal

image' = 2.24, image' = 0.58

13

EST

Uniform

a = 0, b = 100

14

pb

Normal

image = 1550, image = 175

15

BCFp

Uniform

a = 0.01, b = 0.05

16

IR

Triangular

a = 14, m = 22, b = 30

17

INRp

Lognormal

image' = -2.58, image' = 0.61

18

BW

Normal

image = 71.5, image = 17.0

19

CPF11 - Arsenic

Uniform

a = 4.4, b = 26.7

20

CPF21 - Arsenic

Triangular

a = 0, m = 1.75, b = 15.0

21

CPF12 - Cadmium

Normal

image = 6.3, image = 2.93

22

CPF13 - Chromium

Triangular

a = 10.5, m = 42.1, b = 295.2

Explanations: The above-listed probability distribution types are defined as follows:

Uniform

[a. b]

Normal

(image, image)

 

where:

a = minimum value
b = maximum value

 

where:

image = distribution mean
image = distribution standard deviation

Triagular

[a. m. b]

Lognormal

(image', image')

 

where:

a = minimum value
m = most likely value

b = maximum value

 

where:

image' = mean of underlying normal distribution
image' = standard deviation of underlying normal distribution

Page
478
Front Matter (R1-R16)
Executive Summary (1-15)
1 Introduction (16-22)
Part I Current Approaches to Risk Assessment: 2 Risk Assessment and its Social and Regulatory Contexts (23-42)
3 Exposure Assessment (43-55)
4 Assessment of Toxicity (56-67)
5 Risk Characterization (68-78)
Part II Strategies for Improving Risk Assessment: 6 Default Options (79-105)
7 Models, Methods, and Data (106-143)
8 Data Needs (144-159)
9 Uncertainty (160-187)
10 Variability (188-223)
11 Aggregation (224-242)
Part III Implementation of Findings: 12 Implementation (243-268)
References (269-286)
Appendix A: Risk Assessment Methodologies: EPA (287-350)
Appendix B: EPA Memorandum from Henry Habicht (351-374)
Appendix C: Calculation and Modeling of Exposure (375-382)
Appendix D: Working Paper for Considering Draft Revisions to the U.S. EPA Guidelines for Cancer Risk Assessment (383-448)
Appendix E: Use of Pharmacokinetics to Extrapolate from Animal Data to Humans (449-452)
Appendix F: Uncertainty Analysis of Health Risk Estimates (453-478)
Appendix G: Improvement in Human Health Risk Assessment Utilizing Site- and Chemical-Specific Information: A Case Study (479-502)
Appendix H-1: Some Definitional Concerns About Variability (503-504)
Appendix H-2: Individual Susceptibility Factors (505-514)
Appendix I: Aggregation (515-536)
Appendix J: A Tiered Modeling Approach for Assessing the Risks Due to Sources of Hazardous Air Pollutants (537-582)
Appendix K: Science Advisory Board Memorandum on the Integrated Risk Information System and EPA Response (583-590)
Appendix L: Development of Data Used in Risk Assessment (591-598)
Appendix M: Charge to the Committee (599-600)
Appendix N-1: The Case for (601-628)
Appendix N-2: Making Full Use of Scientific Information in Risk Assessment (629-640)
Index (641-652)