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Internal Migration, Urbanization, and Population Distribution

John O.Oucho and William T.S.Gould

INTRODUCTION

In the three decades since the main period of independence in Africa, population distribution and redistribution through migration have remained important and widely recognized features of the population dynamics of the continent. Despite the continuing importance of the phenomenon, its status in the late 1980s and into the 1990s has largely remained as it was described by Prothero in 1968: the “Cinderella” of population studies. It is still not completely accepted as part of the inner family in demography (largely because of its “inferior” data and its variable and technically “soft” techniques); it is still starved for resources in comparison with the attention given to fertility and mortality data collection and analysis; and it still plays

John O.Oucho is an associate professor of demography and director of the Population Studies and Research Institute in Nairobi, Kenya. The chapter was written during his tenure as a demographer/instructor at the Regional Institue for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana. William T.S.Gould is reader in geography, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom. The authors are grateful to Janet L.Ewing of the National Research Council library for her assistance in compiling substantive literature on the subject of this chapter; to Population Action International, formerly Population Crisis Committee, for providing some data on urbanization; to Mike S.Omogi and Cudjoie Dovlo of the Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, for computing several tables and illustrative material; and to Claire Sullivan of the Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, for assistance in text processing.



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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa 7 Internal Migration, Urbanization, and Population Distribution John O.Oucho and William T.S.Gould INTRODUCTION In the three decades since the main period of independence in Africa, population distribution and redistribution through migration have remained important and widely recognized features of the population dynamics of the continent. Despite the continuing importance of the phenomenon, its status in the late 1980s and into the 1990s has largely remained as it was described by Prothero in 1968: the “Cinderella” of population studies. It is still not completely accepted as part of the inner family in demography (largely because of its “inferior” data and its variable and technically “soft” techniques); it is still starved for resources in comparison with the attention given to fertility and mortality data collection and analysis; and it still plays John O.Oucho is an associate professor of demography and director of the Population Studies and Research Institute in Nairobi, Kenya. The chapter was written during his tenure as a demographer/instructor at the Regional Institue for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana. William T.S.Gould is reader in geography, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom. The authors are grateful to Janet L.Ewing of the National Research Council library for her assistance in compiling substantive literature on the subject of this chapter; to Population Action International, formerly Population Crisis Committee, for providing some data on urbanization; to Mike S.Omogi and Cudjoie Dovlo of the Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, for computing several tables and illustrative material; and to Claire Sullivan of the Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, for assistance in text processing.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa a marginal role in national population policies. Progress in migration studies in Africa has been substantial in quantity, addressing a wide range of empirical, theoretical, and policy issues, and these have generated a large literature. However, they have not coalesced into any consensus on approaches or theoretical baselines. There have been contributions to major and long-standing theoretical debates, such as on the existence of a mobility transition to mirror the demographic transition (Zelinsky, 1971) and whether or not migration is a force for development at both source and destination (Gould, 1988; Oucho, 1990a), but the research agenda has moved away from questions associated with general global models to those arising explicitly out of the African experience. The systems framework of Mabogunje (1970) is perhaps the most widely cited model of this type. Even in the area of models of African experience, however, there has been a general weakening of theoretical work in the face of a growing complexity of what is known about the migration experience throughout sub-Saharan Africa. To some extent it could be argued that migration studies lost their way in the 1980s, overshadowed by major developments in fertility and mortality studies. Yet migration remains important and needs to be considered not only in its own right, but also in the context of asserting its importance alongside fertility and mortality as a component of population dynamics. It has recently been argued, for example, that in Ghana, “migration may worsen the population pressure by undermining traditional demographic controls, and this supports and even increases high fertility rates” (Cleveland, 1991:238; see also Diop, 1985, on Senegal). Mabogunje (1990), on the other hand, implies that this loosening of demographic controls would lead to increased nucleation in family relationships that would, in turn, lead to reduced fertility. Much work remains to be done in this area. This chapter describes the major characteristics, trends, and differentials, as well as the determinants of internal migration, urbanization, and population distribution, in sub-Saharan Africa by using available data and estimates for at least the last two decades (1970–1980 and 1980–1990) and projections for 1990–2000 and into the twenty-first century. The United Nations classification of sub-Saharan Africa into four subregions—eastern, middle, southern, and western—is used throughout. Because there are many countries and because data vary greatly in quantity and quality, it is inappropriate to give an exhaustive treatment to all countries in equal detail or to focus on all aspects of migration, urbanization, and population distribution. Rather, the discussion is directed to the three major features in separate sections. The first of these examines the typology and patterns of internal migration, migration differentials, and determinants of migration; the second reviews the magnitude, trends, and determinants of urbanization;

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa and the third discusses aspects of distribution, redistribution, and population density. INTERNAL MIGRATION Conceptual Issues and the State of the Art Migration is the movement of people in space, often involving a change in the usual place of residence; internal migration is such a movement within national boundaries (International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 1982:92–93). Because migration is a continuous, often repeated process rather than a single event, it is difficult to measure. Furthermore, because it is studied by researchers in all the social sciences, it lacks a standard data source or uniform approach. The typology of African population mobility described in Table 7–1 differentiates the main types of movement in space (in a fourfold classification of rural and urban sources and destinations) and in time. The principal distinction made is between circulation (i.e., involving repetitive, nonpermanent moves—daily commuting and other short-term mobility have been excluded in this case) and definitive migration (Gould and Prothero, 1975). Circulation is subdivided in the table into three categories according to the length of the period of absence. Periodic movements are mostly short term. Seasonal movements, prominent in interior West Africa and among pastoralists, have a regular annual rhythm. Long-term circulation involves an absence of more than 1 year, but an expectation of return. Definitive migration, by contrast, is essentially a creation of the data collection methodology, when the individual migrant is recorded as being at a different place from one recorded at an earlier time (whether in a previous enumeration or as a result of some retrospective question, such as place of birth or place of previous residence). In practice it is very difficult to establish permanency, for the exact timing or direction of subsequent moves cannot be known—although probabilities of further movement may be estimated. Definitive migration may be further subdivided into irregular movements, where neither the timing nor the destination of the next move is known (characteristically in the case of refugees), and permanent movement, where the moves are considered by those involved to imply a permanent commitment to the new area of residence. This differentiation is not made in Table 7–1. Many of these issues have been addressed in the rapidly growing literature on African migration—a literature that has been composed largely of empirical studies, often addressing only implicitly the larger theoretical questions on the causes and implications of the moves; many of these questions remain unresolved (Gould, 1992a). Important collections of empirical work from the early 1980s include the analysis of West African censuses of the

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 7–1 Typology of Internal Migration with African Examples   Circulation   Direction Periodic Seasonal Long Term Definitive Migration Rural-rural Movement of dealers in produce and livestock Pastoral displacement due to environmental hazards Labor migration to agriculture wage sector, mining, and other rural Agricultural land colonization, resettlement economic nodes and land consolidations; overspill into marginal of spontaneous migrants from population pressure areas Rural-urban Movement of dealers in agricultural produce   Movement of employed and underemployed persons Spontaneous migrant in slums, shantytowns and suburbs Urban-rural Movement of dealers in urban manufactures (e.g., soap, foods, medicines) Return migration of urbanites during “peak” agricultural seasons “Repatriation” of unemployed persons; labor migration to rural agroindustrial and mining modes Return migration of retired persons and unsuccessful urban migrants (the latter can be rural-urban migrants later) Urban-urban Movement of self-employed persons   Movement of transferred workers; self-employed persons (traders and business people relocating elsewhere) Prospective migration of second- or later-generation migrants out of touch with ancestral home NOTE: Excludes daily movements such as cultivating, vacationing, and commuting. SOURCES: Adapted in modified form from Bernard (1982:154, Table 21.1), and Gould and Prothero (1975).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa 1970 round (Zachariah and Condé, 1981) and two volumes derived from the work of the Commission on Population Geography of the International Geographical Union on population distribution and associated policies (Clarke and Kosinski, 1982; Clarke et al., 1985). In the mid-1980s, the United Nations Regional Institute for Population Studies in Ghana produced a wideranging collection (1987), and there were several formal and informal sessions on aspects of migration at the IUSSP African Population Conference in Dakar in 1988 (International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 1988). In 1990, in association with the Nairobi Conference of the Union for African Population Studies (UAPS), three volumes including papers by many African scholars and a large bibliography, were published (Union for African Population Studies, 1990a,b,c). Table 7–2 summarizes the bibliographical material under various headings and provides a snapshot of areas of predominant interest and strength. Data and Data Collection Methods One critical technical issue that is immediately apparent in this literature concerns the long-standing problem of data for migration analysis, in the sense of both poor quality data and a reduced availability and use even of traditional sources. The recent literature offers a very distinct shift from systematic national analysis based on census sources to more specific and localized survey-based studies. In the African census rounds of the 1960s and 1970s, there was a great improvement in migration questions, with a shift from questions about ethnicity to questions about birthplace. Extensive use was made of these data in the form of place-of-birth/place-of-residence matrices (Masser and Gould, 1975). In addition, many African countries included a time-specific question in the 1980-round of censuses (e.g., Where were you living one year ago?). In theory, these changes and additions represented an important improvement in the quality of migration data, but in practice the results have been most disappointing and the resulting tabulations little used by analysts. The official report of the Kenya census of 1979 (Kenya, 1982:64), for example, concluded that the data on place of residence in 1978 was bedevilled by the biases that are liable to afflict all questions involving dating and reference periods in Africa…. It cannot be recommended for inclusion in future censuses in Kenya. Nevertheless, a 1-year retrospective question was included in the 1989 Kenya schedule, but it will probably also produce unusable data. It is too early to offer systematic consideration of the results of the 1990 census round, but it is unlikely to generate many new insights into migration. Because census analysis based on place-of-birth data no longer adds

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 7–2 Literature Sources on Migration in Africa by Theme Theme Number of Studies Cited Major Issues Addressed, Papers Presented Data, methodology 128 (8.5%) Data sources, scope, and limitations Conceptual issues and problems Labor migration 202 (13.4%) Internal: rural-rural to wage sector and rural-urban migration International: direction, types (especially brain drain), and effects Resettlement/spatial distribution 153 (10.2%) Postindependence resettlement process, types, results, and problems Demographic and socioeconomic challenges of resettled areas Urban system/ urbanization 219 (14.5%) Migrants’ adjustment in urban milieu Relationship between migration and urbanization Linkages to migration system 100 (6.6%) Networks and linkages of internal and international migrants with areas of origins Indices of linkages: visits, remittances, sociocultural ties Female migration 37 (2.5%) Lack of studies on female migration and gender roles Refugees 103 (6.8%) Sources and destinations of refugees Causes and consequences of refugeeism and displacements Nomadism 25 (1.7%) Nomadism in Sahelian countries and Kenya Process, determinants, and consequences of nomadism Migration and regional integration 34 (2.3%) International migration in the context of regional integration/cooperation institutions in African national subregional economies Migration and basic needs 53 (3.5%) Migration and provision of food, shelter, education, health, etc. General interrelationships and policies 453 (30.1%) General internal and international migration studies Migration-influencing and migration-responsive policies All themes 1,507     SOURCE: Compiled from Union for African Population Studies (1990c).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa significantly to what is known of patterns and differentials in movement, this source has been rather neglected in the search for information that will address the most interesting policy and research issues (e.g., circulation and return migration, household migration strategies, women as independent or family migrants). These data are much more likely to come from surveys, which have mostly been small scale. In only two cases—the National Migration Survey in Botswana (1978–1979) and the National Retrospective Survey in Burkina Faso (1974–1975) —have there been major innovations on the national scale directed to improvements in migration data. The Botswana multiround survey was based on a 3 percent national sample and four rounds of survey within 18 months, so that it was able to identify seasonal mobility, rural-urban interactions, the mobility of individuals in the context of the household, etc. The three-volume report of the Botswana migration survey offers a glimpse into what is possible with more innovative data collection methodologies (Botswana, 1982). The Burkina Faso study used a retrospective approach to the collection of individual migration-history data (Piché, 1990). It was able, for example, to record subsequent migration probabilities of various subgroups in the population by number of previous moves. Whereas 77 percent of men who moved once had a second move recorded in the 5-year period, the proportion was only 32 percent for women (Piché, 1990:307). However, the experience of these two innovative cases has not been repeated in the 1980s in any other African country. Thus, for most countries, there has been an increase in the quantity, but not the quality, of material available, and there has simultaneously been a widening range of approaches. However, these have not been accompanied by equivalent improvements in or agreement about the most appropriate techniques of analysis. In particular, migration model building, so favored by economists and others in the 1970s, is no longer common. None of the migration papers at the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (1988) African Population Conference or in the Union for African Population Studies (1990a,b) papers is based on spatial models of migration, such as the gravity model, or econometric models derivative of the Todaro model that was so widely discussed a decade earlier. An exception in the 1980s, however, is Mazur (1984) on labor migration in Mali. In a more strictly demographic perspective, however, some further possibilities do exist for exploration of multiregional methods for migration estimates (Bah, 1990). The following section explores major trends and differentials in sub-Saharan Africa. It first adopts an essentially spatial perspective in summarizing the geographical patterning of movement, emphasizing the mix of rural and urban sources and destinations, and then explores migration selectivity, in particular through sex, educational, and occupational differentials. Explanations for these patterns and differentials are sought at different spa-

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa rial scales, from the factors operating at a global scale to those operating at the household scale. Spatial Patterns Rural-Rural Migration Given that most people continue to live in rural areas, and that there is in all countries continuous and complex movement within rural societies, even at subsistence levels of development, intrarural movements continue to be the most common of the four major directional types of movement high-lighted in Table 7–1. They are of many types and include movements of nomads as well as those of agriculturalists. They may be seasonal, as in movements between the dry savannas and better-watered areas, or more long term into the commercial rural sector. They may be permanent moves for agricultural colonization or into formal resettlement schemes. Nomadism is a feature of Sahelian Africa in the Horn of Africa (including northern Kenya, northern mainland Tanzania, and northeastern Uganda) and in southwestern Africa (Botswana and Namibia). Recent studies of nomadic pastoralists have emphasized the increasing impetus on the part of governments for sedentarization, as in Sudan and in the Sahel in general. Sedentarization involves the permanent settlement of once seasonally mobile communities. It requires year-round provision of water and pasture for animals, and cultivation has been increasingly incorporated into these economies with implications for the sustainability of the environment as well as for mobility. The Turkana, a typical example of nomads in Kenya, have their lives hanging in the balance as a result of the encroachment by modern life styles and the vagaries of climate, as well as other factors (Odegi-Awuondo, 1990; see also Ayiemba, 1990). Such is also the case elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, in Somalia (Maro, 1990), Niger (Wright, 1990), and Mauritania (Traoré, 1990). In each of these cases, government schemes have sought to mitigate the disastrous effects of drought and, in some cases, civil war by facilitating the restocking of herds and flocks in association with settlement projects that ensure permanent water and pasture. However, the number of animals has tended quickly to outstrip the carrying capacity of the local environment, however enhanced, and environmental deterioration has often been the result. More generally, migration within rural areas involves farmers moving spontaneously in search of new land or in formally organized resettlement programs. The significance of spontaneous migration is probably falling as suitable land is increasingly in short supply. However, spontaneous migration is still important in the general drift southward in West Africa and in movements to marginal lands, to the dry margins as in Kenya (Dietz, 1986),

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa and to lower altitudes and therefore more disease-prone margins as in Ethiopia (Woldemeskel, 1989). Much more widely discussed and much more obviously within the ambit of government policies are movements into government rural development schemes (Maro, 1990). Land transfer from the colonial to independent sub-Saharan African governments at or immediately after independence facilitated resettlement of the former “squatters” on the foreign-owned farms. Resettlement has also involved landless citizens and, in the case of Zimbabwe after 1980, combatants in the independence struggle. The Kenyan land settlement program in the highlands had largely ended by the 1980s (Leo, 1985), although it continued into the semiarid marginal lands. Resettlement in revolutionary Ethiopia (Wood, 1982, 1985), the ujamaa settlements in Tanzania (Thomas, 1982), and the “regrouping” of population in Botswana (Silitshena, 1982) are examples of politically inspired local redistribution and settlement. In the most recent experience in Zimbabwe, there remain deep-seated political and economic conflicts over the extent, type, and speed of resettlement. At independence in 1980, the government proposed a resettlement program of 18,000 households on former European-owned land. In 1981, this target was tripled to 54,000, and it increased again to 162,000 in 1982 with a completion goal of 1984. However, by 1989, only 52,000 households had been resettled, some 32 percent of the target, and most of these were in the poorer areas of the country and on individual farms rather than in cooperative schemes (Palmer, 1990). Rural-Urban Migration Although rural-urban migrants are not the largest group of internal migrants in sub-Saharan African countries, rural-urban movement, whether circulation and for a temporary sojourn in town or for permanent urban residence, is by far the most significant form of movement for the long-term trend of spatial redistribution, and as Table 7–2 suggests, it has attracted much study. To many governments, planners, and policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa, rural-urban migration is seen as the general case that all internal migration embodies. They have tended to overemphasize the importance of migration to the primate cities. Findings on urbanization as a migration phenomenon are discussed in detail below. Suffice it to say at this stage that the attraction of urban areas is largely, but not entirely, economic (Adepoju, 1990) and that rural-urban income and quality of life differentials remain large. The availability of jobs is critical, and rural-urban labor migration is dominant. However, the better availability of superior health care and educational opportunities (Gould, 1990), as well as housing (Ohadike and Teklu, 1990), can be additional attractions.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Urban-Rural and Interurban Migration Two forms of migration are discussed together and rather briefly because of their relative unimportance, at least numerically, in sub-Saharan Africa. Urban-rural circulation consists of both periodic return migration synchronized with the peak agricultural seasons (notably weeding and harvesting) and labor migration to rural agro-industrial or mining complexes. Urban-rural migration is characterized by irregular “repatriation” not only of unemployed persons but also of criminals, and the relatively permanent return migration of both retirees and unsuccessful urban migrants. The Botswana National Migration Survey of 1978–1979 was able to show that 36 percent of all people surveyed in the four largest towns were rural-urban migrants; it was also able to show that 6 percent of those recorded had left town as urban-rural migrants (Case, 1982:117). Some urban-rural migration is already gathering momentum as sub-Saharan African governments continue to lower workers’ minimum retirement ages from 60 to 55 years and, in some cases, from 55 to 50 or even 45 years, and also as a result of retrenchment in public sector employment due to structural adjustment programs. Peil et al. (1988), for example, write of the Nigerian experience of workers “going home” after a career in urban employment. Interurban movements are still minimal in sub-Saharan African countries, except in a large country such as Nigeria where they occur vertically within the urban hierarchy and horizontally among urban centers of the same size order. A survey of migrants in the mid-1970s to three of the largest towns in Nigeria—Benin, Kano, and Ibadan—recorded 21 percent coming from large cities (more than 100,000 inhabitants) and 18 percent from medium-sized cities (20,000–99,999). Another 18 percent of those recorded were intraurban migrants, from elsewhere in these three surveyed cities, but 43 percent were from rural areas or small towns of less than 20,000 (Lacey, 1985:697; see also Adepoju, 1983). The migrants include the self-employed, prospecting for profitable ventures and often moving frequently. Stepwise movement of migrants from smaller to larger urban centers includes public as well private sector workers transferred from one urban center to another. Return Migration Given their strong attachment to home areas and transient residence at the career destination, whether rural or urban, African workers tend to visit or migrate back to their homes after a period away.1 Return migration 1   A return “visit” is by implication temporary, with further outmigration expected, though its exact timing is not known. Return “migration,” by contrast implies a longer period at the origin, and perhaps no further migration.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa remains seriously understudied in sub-Saharan Africa, yet it has important demographic and developmental implications in the migrants’ home areas. Persistence of return migration is an African phenomenon that continental literature surveys (Oucho, 1985b, 1990a) as well as some local studies, for example, in Zambia (Chilivumbo, 1985) and Kenya (Oucho, 1988), have confirmed. Oucho (1990a) reports that in all parts of sub-Saharan Africa, more than two-thirds of migrants visit home at least once a year. Related to the issue of return migration is the remittance that migrants send or bring back to their home of origin. These remittances help to ensure that the migrants will be accepted back into the home should they need or want to return at some point in the future. In southwest Nigeria about 60 percent of migrant heads of households in rural areas were remitting to their home areas at least once a year. In Kenya, in the early 1980s, more than 70 percent of urban households were remitting income at least once a year (Oucho, 1990a:121). Migration Selectivity and Differentials An important feature of any form of voluntary internal migration is the selectivity of migrants by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics from the general population. In this section, attention is directed to the most discussed differentials that are of particular interest to population analysts: age, sex, education, and occupational status. Age Selectivity Age differentials are well documented. Table 7–3 reports the peak age of internal migration based on census and survey data for 1964–1984 in selected countries. The majority of the studies identified in Table 7–3 indicate 20–24 as the modal age group. As a result of rapidly accelerating numbers of primary and secondary school graduates, for example, in Kenya (Gould, 1985), who are younger than their counterparts of two or three decades ago, the peak age at outmigration is probably falling, but migration still affects people throughout their economically active lives. The decline in the average age of migrants, however, has created a widespread desire on the part of governments to stem rural-urban migration of young, able-bodied, better-educated, and more development-conscious people, and to encourage them to be more active in development in the rural areas. Sex Differentials There was a very marked sex differential in both forced and voluntary labor recruitment during the colonial period. Males were recruited for ardu-

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 7–7 Arithmetic and Physiological Population Densities per Square Kilometer in Sub-Saharan Africa by Subregion and Country, 1975 and 1985   Crude Physiological Change, 1975–1985 (%) Region and Country 1975 1985 1975 1985 Crude Physiological Western   Benin 28 36 106 291 28.6 174.5 Burkina Faso 22 29 108 301 31.8 178.7 Côte d’Ivoire 21 32 83 355 52.4 327.7 Ghana 41 54 940 1,146 31.7 21.9 Guinea 18 25 108 405 38.9 275.0 Guinea-Bissau 15 25 208 307 66.7 47.6 Liberia 15 20 1,221 1,675 33.3 37.2 Mali 5 7 49 390 40.0 695.9 Mauritania 1 2 132 929 100.0 603.8 Niger 4 5 31 164 25.0 429.0 Nigeria 68 103 276 334 51.5 21.0 Senegal 21 33 173 123 57.1 –28.9 Sierra Leone 41 51 74 223 24.4 201.4 Togo 40 52 100 218 30.0 118.0 Middle   Angola 5 7 496 297 40.0 –40.1 Cameroon 13 21 95 167 61.5 75.8 Central African Republic 3 4 31 136 33.3 338.7 Chad 3 4 58 159 33.3 174.1 Congo 4 5 211 264 25.0 25.1 Gabon 2 4 421 340 100.0 –19.2 Zaire 11 13 342 512 18.2 49.7

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern   Burundi 134 170 351 422 26.9 20.2 Ethiopia 23 35 215 320 52.2 48.8 Kenya 23 35 848 1,083 52.2 27.7 Madagascar 14 17 311 404 21.4 29.9 Malawi 43 60 223 304 39.5 36.3 Mozambique 12 17 324 480 41.7 48.1 Rwanda 162 232 612 848 43.2 38.6 Somalia 5 10 305 604 100.0 98.0 Tanzania 16 24 306 551 50.0 80.1 Uganda 49 66 296 316 34.7 6.8 Zambia 7 9 100 135 28.6 35.0 Zimbabwe 16 21 256 313 31.3 22.3 Southern   Botswana 1 2 135 79 100.0 –41.5 Lesotho 35 51 293 513 45.7 75.1 Namibia 1 – 137 – – – South Africa 21 – 190 – – – NOTES: Crude, or arithmetic, population density is the population per unit of area. Physiological population density is the population per area of arable land (see footnote 3 for the definition of arable land). —: not available. SOURCE: Data from United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (1978: Table 4, pp. 17; 1988: Table 4, pp. 17–20).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa government-induced population transfers and resettlement; (3) spatial redistribution due to migration and urbanization; (4) relocation resulting from environmental hazards and catastrophes; and (5) spontaneous settlement/ resettlement (Clarke and Kosinski, 1982; Clarke et al., 1985; Maro, 1990). The first, third, and fifth categories are found in almost all sub-Saharan African countries, which suggests the importance of resource and development endowments in attracting large numbers of redistributed populations. Government policies based on bargains between the departed colonial powers and the incoming independent government, as in Kenya and Zimbabwe, triggered redistribution not only of the landless population but also of progressive farmers lured by commercial agriculture. In Ethiopia and Tanzania, socialist political ideology resulted in large-scale population resettlement and villagization in the 1970s and 1980s. These political policies have been relaxed only recently in light of new realities in these countries’ political economies. It should be cautioned, however, that the five types of population redistribution are not mutually exclusive, and most if not all can be found in any one country. Combinations of the five exist, triggered by varying factors and having different effects on national populations and in different regions. In the longer term, though, into the twenty-first century, there remains some uncertainty over the extent of possible population redistribution in sub-Saharan Africa. Almost certainly there is likely to be further concentration in the better-favored areas over areas likely to be affected by environmental decline, but the extent of such migration will vary from country to country, and probably from region to region within each country. CONCLUSION Internal migration is an important component of the demography of sub-Saharan Africa. Unfortunately, its study has not kept pace with the study of the two other demographic components, fertility and mortality. Though questions dealing with place of birth and place of residence in the past have been asked on recent censuses, the data have been largely useless because of problems with dating and reference periods. Attempts have been made in some countries, namely, Botswana and Burkina Faso, to collect reliable survey data; however, in general, data quality is not good. Despite the shortage of adequate data, some observations about migration within sub-Saharan African countries can be made. Although the focus of policymakers and the research community on rural-urban migration may seem to imply that this type of migration is the most prevalent, it is not; in fact, intrarural migration, which includes nomadism and movements due to resettlement programs, is the most common. Migration from urban areas to either rural or other urban areas is the least common.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Those who decide to migrate differ from those who do not in several ways. Migrants tend to be young adult males who have a higher level of educational attainment than those who do not migrate. Wealth is also related to migration: Being better able to sponsor migrants, more wealthy families tend to be more likely to have family members who migrate. Factors external to families and individuals are also important in creating an atmosphere conducive to migration. The international community, through export pricing and structural adjustment activities, and domestic governments, through programs that directly or indirectly address migration, may influence internal migration flows. In addition, environmental and health factors may cause some people to move within their country. Urbanization is becoming increasingly important within sub-Saharan Africa. Unlike much of the industrialized world, where urbanization followed industrialization, urbanization and industrialization in sub-Saharan Africa have largely taken place independently. The proportion of the population living in urban areas has increased in all regions of the continent. By the turn of the century, it is expected that aside from the countries of eastern Africa, one-third of the population in all sub-Saharan African countries will live in urban areas. Internal migration in sub-Saharan Africa has ramifications for population density. Although it does not alter the density of an entire country, it does affect the distribution of population within a country’s borders and, therefore, the density of regions within a country. Because sub-Saharan African countries continue to be greatly affected by spatial dynamics of population, it is expedient that researchers, planners, and policymakers collaborate in research undertakings that are immediately responsive to development planning and policies. REFERENCES Addo, N.O. 1987 Population, migration and employment: The case of Ghana. Pp. 283–352 in H. Jemai, ed., Population et Développement en Afrique. Dakar: CODESRIA. Adepoju, A. 1983 Studies on the Dynamics and Consequences of Migration to Medium-Size Towns in Nigeria: Research and Policy Prospects. Reports and Papers in the Social Sciences, No. 53. Paris: UNESCO. 1986 Rural Migration and Development in Nigeria. Department of Demography and Social Statistics, University of Ife, Ila-Ife, Nigeria. 1987 An overview of migration-influencing policies and programmes in Africa. Pp. 396–407 in Internal Migration and Regional Development in Africa. Accra: Regional Institute for Population Studies. 1988 Migration and urbanization: issues and policies. Pp. 123–138 in E.van de Walle, M.D.Sala-Diakanda, and P.O.Ohadike, eds., The State of African Demography. Liège: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.

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