8
International Migration

Sharon Stanton Russell

INTRODUCTION

As of the late 1980s, international migrants of all types worldwide were estimated to number in the range of 80 million people, of whom approximately 35 million were in sub-Saharan Africa (Widgren, 1987; Ricca, 1989; United Nations, 1989b; Russell et al., 1990). If these figures are even nearly correct, then almost half of the world’s migrants were in sub-Saharan Africa, although the region itself contained less than 10 percent of the world’s population.

Of these 35 million sub-Saharan African migrants, approximately 5.4 million were officially recognized refugees; possibly an equal number were internally and externally displaced—in refugee-like circumstances but not officially recognized as refugees. In this study, migrants are defined as persons who have crossed international boundaries, regardless of their reasons for movement or length of stay abroad (both of which are difficult to discern from available data). International migrants include those seeking employment; family members accompanying or joining those who have migrated before them; people seeking refuge from drought, famine, political upheavals, or military conflicts (whether designated as official refugees or

Sharon Stanton Russell is a research scholar at the the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.



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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa 8 International Migration Sharon Stanton Russell INTRODUCTION As of the late 1980s, international migrants of all types worldwide were estimated to number in the range of 80 million people, of whom approximately 35 million were in sub-Saharan Africa (Widgren, 1987; Ricca, 1989; United Nations, 1989b; Russell et al., 1990). If these figures are even nearly correct, then almost half of the world’s migrants were in sub-Saharan Africa, although the region itself contained less than 10 percent of the world’s population. Of these 35 million sub-Saharan African migrants, approximately 5.4 million were officially recognized refugees; possibly an equal number were internally and externally displaced—in refugee-like circumstances but not officially recognized as refugees. In this study, migrants are defined as persons who have crossed international boundaries, regardless of their reasons for movement or length of stay abroad (both of which are difficult to discern from available data). International migrants include those seeking employment; family members accompanying or joining those who have migrated before them; people seeking refuge from drought, famine, political upheavals, or military conflicts (whether designated as official refugees or Sharon Stanton Russell is a research scholar at the the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa not); as well as pilgrims, temporary visitors, workers posted outside their countries of origin, and children migrating for school. The definition of official refugee differs slightly by designating institution. The 1951 United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees defines a refugee in part as a person who, “owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality…[etc.] is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable or…unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country….” The Organization for African Unity Convention of 1969 expands this definition by adding the following: “The term refugee shall also apply to every person who, owing to external aggression, occupation, foreign domination or events seriously disturbing the public order… is compelled to leave…to seek refuge in another place” (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 1979). The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of international migration streams in sub-Saharan Africa: their scale, directions, and links to economic factors, and their effects on the size, structure, and composition of the region’s populations. Demographic analysis is often complicated by international migration, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where international population movements have been volatile and frequently unpredictable, as much for political as for economic reasons. Census data, which at best are slow to be published, are rapidly rendered outdated by migrations associated with sudden economic reversals (e.g., changes in oil or commodity prices) or political events. Despite the difficulties of studying the phenomenon, international migration can have striking consequences for the demographic profiles of both sending and the receiving areas, and the subject warrants attention in any comprehensive review of population dynamics. DATA SOURCES Statistical data on international migration in sub-Saharan Africa are of limited availability and often poor quality. Data on migration flows among countries are virtually nonexistent. To estimate the stocks of migrants in the region, their proportions in total population, and their age and sex composition, this chapter has drawn upon files compiled from country censuses reported to the United Nations Population Division, Trends and Structure Section. These data are from the 1970 and 1980 census rounds; results from the few countries that have conducted censuses in the 1990 round are not officially available, although preliminary results from Lesotho (not yet reported to the United Nations) are considered in the analysis below. Data on stocks of refugees in the region (and their changes in recent years) are derived from the World Refugee Survey, published annually by the U.S. Committee for Refugees. Data from both census and refugee survey sources

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa were cross-tabulated by country of origin and destination during preparation of International Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa, published by the World Bank (Russell et al., 1990), and have been updated for this chapter (see Tables 8–1 through 8–141 for regional and country-level data on migration and refugee flows). When relevant, the analysis below also makes use of country-specific survey and detailed census results as well as findings from the extensive literature review conducted for the World Bank study. Census data often do not allow clear distinctions to be drawn among types of migrants. Specifically, census results seldom indicate whether official refugees were included or excluded. For these and reasons cited above, the population estimates presented here must be considered approximations. Furthermore, some censuses report foreign nationality rather than foreign birth (see Tables 8–1 and 8–15). Generally, place of birth is a better datum than nationality for inferring migration, since nationality may or may not change as migrants settle and may or may not apply to the second generation. Even place of birth has its limitations, however: It reflects lifetime movement (without temporal reference) and does not give any information about multiple, staged, or circular migrations. In this chapter, the term “migrant” is used in reference to nonnationals identified by either or both classifications. The term “refugee” is reserved for those officially recognized as such by the United Nations or Organization of African Unity definitions. REGIONAL PATTERNS Despite the data limitations, important regional and subregional2 patterns can be discerned. These patterns can be seen in the map on migration and in Tables 8–1 through 8–8. First, the vast majority (approximately 90 percent) of sub-Saharan African migrants are Africans. Non-African migrants include long-time residents originating from Lebanon, Syria, India, and Pakistan, as well as Europeans and some from the Western Hemisphere. The proportions of foreign born in total populations vary considerably, with the highest being in western Africa. Second, labor migration has been a feature of all subregions, but especially notable in western Africa, and from the nations of southern Africa to the Republic of South Africa. Third, refugee migrations, on the other hand, 1   For the readers’ convenience, all tables appear at the end of this chapter. 2   The classification of countries by subregion adopted here follows the groupings used by Adepoju (1988) which, in turn, are consistent with those of the World Population Data Sheet published annually by the Population Reference Bureau. These classifications may differ from those used by other sources; for example, Mozambique is here considered to be in East Africa.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa International migration in sub-Saharan Africa. SOURCE: Based on Ricca (1989). have been predominant in eastern Africa. Fourth, clandestine migration is pervasive throughout the region and considered “routine” in western Africa, where seasonal migration also figures more prominently than elsewhere on the continent. Western Africa The highest concentration of migrants is found in western Africa, a subregion that migrants have always considered as an economic unit where trade in goods and services flowed freely, as did people. Precolonial migrations were often group movements related to internecine warfare, slave

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa raids, famine, drought, and the spread of religions—as well as trade. During the colonial period, the French pursued forced labor recruitment policies, while the British adopted agricultural production policies that attracted farm labor. The development of plantation agriculture helped to bring about a shift during this period from group migration to individual movement, differentiated by age, occupation, and sex. In the postcolonial period, migration in western Africa has become largely spontaneous and includes levels of both seasonal and undocumented migration reportedly higher than elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. The levels and directions of migration in the region are notably volatile. Until the early 1970s, Ghana was the favored destination of western African migrants, and as of the 1960 census, migrants numbered more than 800,000 and made up 12 percent of Ghana’s total population. By 1970, migrants numbered only 562,000 and comprised only 6.6 percent of total population (see Table 8–1). Over the past two decades, Côte d’Ivoire has supplanted Ghana as a major pole of attraction for migrants from Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Ghana, Niger, and elsewhere (see Table 8–2). Foreigners, who were 22 percent of the total population as of the 1975 census, are now reported to be nearly 30 percent, giving Côte d’Ivoire by far the highest concentration of foreigners in sub-Saharan Africa (see Table 8–1). The second highest concentration is in The Gambia, where migrants are about 11 percent of the total population and include significant numbers from Senegal, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and Mali (see Table 8–2). Census data from Nigeria are not available, but it is well known that flows to that country increased substantially during the 1970s and early 1980s, as the combined result of Nigeria’s oil boom and the protocol on freedom of movement signed in 1980 by members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The majority of migrants were from Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger, and Chad. By 1982, there were estimated to be 2 to 2.5 million nonnationals in Nigeria, roughly 2.5 percent of total population. However, a 1983 survey of migrants in Nigeria found that only 23.3 percent of them were legal, so their numbers and proportions may have been even higher (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 1987; Adepoju, 1988; Orubuloye, 1988). Economic and political adversities since the early 1980s have dramatically changed international migration to Nigeria. Between 1983 and 1985, some 1.5 million nonnationals were expelled by government order (Afolayan, 1988:21–23). By the late 1980s, Nigeria had become an exporter of professionally and technically trained personnel. According to the 1976 census, there were close to 119,000 migrants in Senegal (see Table 8–1); however, other estimates (Zachariah and Condé, 1981) put the number at that time in the range of 355,000 (with Guinea being the largest source country), and it is this latter figure that has led to

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa the characterization of Senegal as having become a significant country of immigration. By taking the lower figure, migrants amount to nearly 2.4 percent of the total population; the higher figure is closer to 7 percent of the total population. There is little quantitative evidence on the composition of migrants in western Africa. They are generally thought to be primarily young; male; illiterate or at least less well educated than the host country populations; and concentrated in low-status, temporary jobs, especially those in agriculture, mining, commerce, and services. On the other hand, they are also reported to have high levels of employment. There are some exceptions to this characterization, however. Ghanians in Nigeria included large numbers of school teachers, professionals, and technicians; the 1983 survey of migrants found that nearly 53 percent had secondary, technical, or tertiary education. About 25 percent of those surveyed were in skilled occupations and another 14 percent in semiskilled activities. Only 37 percent were in unskilled jobs (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 1987:24; Adepoju 1988:68). It has also been observed that more recent flows in western Africa (especially to Côte d’Ivoire) have included more women and children (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 1987), which may indicate a shift toward family migration or reflect movement of dependents for family reunification. Of the eleven western African countries for which data are available on the sex ratio of the foreign born, five have ratios very close to 1.00 (Table 8–15). Further, future censuses may confirm observations (see Russell et al., 1990) that implementation of the ECOWAS regional protocols on free circulation during the 1980s, along with rising levels of education, have led to more migration of skilled workers in western Africa. There is also evidence of medium- to long-term migration, especially from Mali and Burkina Faso. Guineans are also noted to have longer average residence outside than other migrants (Adepoju, 1988). Although the majority (59 percent) of sub-Saharan African migrants over age 20 enumerated in Mauritania’s 1977 census had been in the country less than five years, nearly 25 percent had been resident 10 years or more. For Sierra Leone as of 1974, 20 percent of all foreign nationals had been resident 10 years or more and another 19 percent had been born there. The future of migration to Côte d’Ivoire is somewhat uncertain at present. Given historical trends and the continuing relative economic deprivation of neighboring source countries, there may be little significant reduction in flows. On the other hand, both economic and political conditions in Côte d’Ivoire are worsening, and there are reportedly high levels of unemployment among educated Ivoirians and a less welcoming response to migrants. Although the occupational concentrations of migrants and nationals are different, such circumstances have been known to result in nationals taking jobs they previously considered beneath their qualifications.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa In the past several years, refugee flows have come to figure more prominently than heretofore in western Africa. In 1988, Guinea-Bissau and Ghana were the only countries in the subregion producing refugees; numbering only 5,500, these constituted less than 1 percent of all sub-Saharan African refugees. Similarly, the subregion’s nine asylum countries hosted only 15,200 refugees (primarily from Chad in middle Africa) also less than 1 percent of the total (Russell et al., 1990). By 1990—only 2 years later—13 western African nations were providing asylum to more than 800,000 people (nearly 16 percent of all sub-Saharan African refugees) primarily from other western African countries, notably Liberia (nearly 730,000) and Mauritania (more than 60,000) (see Tables 8–9 and 8–10). Middle Africa Historical patterns of international migration in middle Africa were linked to religious factors, tribal expansion, the slave trade, migrations of nomads and pygmies, and movement across “artificial,” colonial political boundaries by members of socioeconomic units thus divided. Although migration in the subregion is often characterized as largely male and temporary, analysis of sex ratio data for various middle African countries suggests that types of migration vary considerably by nationality and country of destination. Migrants from Zaire in Cameroon had the highest sex ratio (number of males per female) of any foreign group enumerated in the Cameroon (1976) census (2.59), implying temporary migration largely by males. Zairois in the Congo as of 1984, on the other hand, had a sex ratio of 0.88, reflecting the existence of female migration, whereas Senegalese in the Congo had a sex ratio of 3.0. Among the middle African countries for which census data are available, the largest migrant stocks (more than 600,000) are enumerated in Zaire (see Table 8–1), where mineral deposits and infusions of investment capital have created jobs for skilled and unskilled workers, and the foreign born represent slightly more than 2 percent of the total population. The second major country of destination is Cameroon, where nearly 220,000 migrants constituted about 3 percent of total population in the 1976 census. The great majority were palm plantation workers from Nigeria and, to a lesser extent, from Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) (see Tables 8–3 and 8–6, note a). The Congo has the highest proportion of migrants in middle Africa (more than 5 percent), mainly from Zaire, CAR, Angola, Mali, Senegal, and Cameroon (see Tables 8–1, 8–3, and 8–6, note a). Nearly three-quarters of the migrants to the Congo enumerated in 1984 had arrived within the preceding 10 years, and more than half had come within the preceding three years. At the other extreme, as may be seen in Table 8–1, the foreign born in Angola were less than 1 percent of the total population in 1983.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa The total number of refugees from middle Africa increased slightly, from 490,000 in 1988 to 521,900 in 1990, but (because of even greater increases in other subregions) their proportion among all sub-Saharan African refugees declined from 12.5 to barely 10 percent. The absolute increase in middle African refugees resulted from greater numbers fleeing into Zaire, Zambia, and Namibia (see Tables 8–11 and 8–14) from drought-induced famine and continued hostilities in Angola, by far the major source country in the subregion, with about 436,000 refugees (see Table 8–16). The number of refugees from Zaire and Chad decreased slightly, despite a new outflow from Chad in 1989 associated with the overthrow of the government. Previously, during the late 1980s, many of the earlier Chadian refugees had been repatriated. Eastern Africa Eastern Africa is the principal geographical focus of African refugee movements, and these refugee flows dominate other types of migration in this subregion. As may be seen in Table 8–16, of the seven countries that generate more than 90 percent of the continent’s refugees, four are in eastern Africa and one is neighboring Sudan; of the thirteen countries that receive more than 90 percent of the refugees (see Table 8–17), seven are in eastern Africa and one is again Sudan. Of these major source and asylum countries, three (Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia) are in both categories. However, as of 1987, it was no longer accurate to characterize refugee movements as confined to the Horn.3 The number of refugees originating from Mozambique increased dramatically (nearly 163 percent) between 1986 and 1987, and by 1990 Mozambique had surpassed Ethiopia as sub-Saharan Africa’s major source country, accounting for 27 percent of the region’s refugees. The countries of eastern Africa most affected by the Mozambican exodus—Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—were among the top 12 asylum countries, together receiving nearly 29 percent of Africa’s refugees (Tables 8–12 and 8–17). The predominance of refugees in eastern Africa does not mean, however, that other types of international migration are not found. Historically, migration in the subregion was affected by precolonial inflows of Arabs and Asians; the partition of the area into colonies; the development of export-oriented agriculture as well as mining and extractive industries; and restric- 3   The U.S. Committee for Refugees defines the Horn of Africa as comprising Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, and the Sudan (other sources may or may not include the latter two countries). With its independence from Ethiopia, Eritrea will be considered separately as part of the Horn.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa tions on free population movements both following independence and, from time to time, as the result of interstate conflicts. Since before independence, populations moved from Rwanda, Burundi, and Zaire to Uganda, Kenya, and elsewhere in eastern Africa, as contract labor replaced old East-West slave routes. There have also been labor flows from Malawi and Mozambique to South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Zambia (Adepoju, 1988:34,35). In the past, Tanzania received sizable inflows from other sub-Saharan African countries. Some were refugees or people in refugee-like circumstances, but Tanzania has been both a labor-sending and a labor-receiving country, with explicit policies to govern such movements. However, in the face of deteriorating economic conditions in the 1970s, the proportion of migrants in Tanzania’s total population declined from 3.7 percent in 1968 to 2.4 percent in 1978. Kenya has not been a major country of in-migration, and only 1 percent of its total population in 1979 was composed of migrants, largely from Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Somalia. However, until recently, Kenya was a major receiver of educated Ugandans. During the 1980s, the increasing availability of skilled Kenyan graduates placed pressures on the Kenyan labor market, and as a result, skilled Ugandans moved to other locations within and outside Africa, including South Africa. In addition to both hosting and producing refugees, Sudan has been an exporter of migrants to the oil-producing countries of the Middle East and elsewhere. An estimated 334,000 Sudanese were abroad as of 1983 (Choucri, 1985:5), and by 1985, some 500,000—including two-thirds of the country’s technical and professional workers—lived abroad (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), 1988:1). Some of the resulting manpower shortage in Sudan was attenuated by skilled Ethiopian refugees, who replaced trained Sudanese migrants to the Gulf (Adepoju, 1990:7). Although the oil price downturn in the 1980s prompted concerns about large-scale return migration, as of the late 1980s there was no evidence this had occurred. The full consequences of Sudan’s support for Iraq in the 1990–1991 Gulf War have yet to be determined, however. Southern Africa Migration in southern Africa has generally been characterized as temporary and oscillatory, historically and in the present shaped by migration to the Republic of South Africa (RSA), principally from Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland (BLS) but also from Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. In addition to migration of mine workers (organized through labor recruiters), there was—until 1963—a considerable amount of clandestine migration, which included accompanying women and children. In 1963, South Africa imposed strict immigration controls that curtailed both undocumented

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa migration and family migration, and further prohibited BLS migration to South Africa except for work in mines and agriculture. Changes in the national composition of migrant mine workers in South Africa began to appear in the mid-1970s. Several sending countries imposed their own restrictions on migration to RSA. Tanzania and Zambia enacted such restrictions shortly after independence, and Malawi withdrew its labor in 1974, although it reduced those strictures in 1978. As a result of these measures and a secular decline in mine migrants from Mozambique, there has been a shift toward increasing proportions from Lesotho (United Nations, 1989b). A number of factors have combined to bring about these and other recent changes in southern African migration to South Africa (De Vletter 1988:5). First, after increases in the price of gold, the withdrawal of Malawian labor, and worsening relations with Mozambique, South Africa sought to stabilize the migrant work force and to attract more mine labor from within the country, with substantially increased wages and longer work contracts. Second, legislative changes have accompanied a policy shift toward “careers in mining.” Mine companies are now permitted to construct housing for married workers, and black workers are permitted to occupy senior positions formerly reserved for whites. Third, in response to periodic bans on migration by supplier countries, South Africa has sought to reduce its dependence on foreign labor and has used either threatened or actual expulsions as a disincentive to further political actions by remaining suppliers. Finally, with rising levels of education both in labor-supplying countries and within South Africa itself, the benefits of an educated work force have become more evident, and policies have emphasized establishment of a permanent, skilled labor force from domestic sources. From Chamber of Mines of South Africa data, it is possible to discern some of the consequences of these factors. Although total employment in the mines increased and a growing proportion of official migrants have been concentrated in mining, the proportion of workers from foreign countries decreased from 78 percent in 1974 to about 40 percent in 1984–1986 (Financial Mail, 1987:33; United Nations, 1989b: Table 65). The full impact of these changes on the labor-supplying countries of southern Africa is not yet clear. However, it has been noted that the supply of mine labor now far exceeds demand throughout southern Africa (De Vletter, 1985), and the International Labour Organization (ILO) has mounted a series of studies (under the “Assistance to Migrant Workers in Southern Africa Project”) to inform planning in countries of the subregion bracing for effects of expected further declines in migration to South Africa. In Botswana alone, the number of mine labor recruits dropped from 40,390 in 1976 to 19,648 in 1986, and the proportion of novices (first-time workers)

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa among all recruits dropped from 25 percent in 1976 to 1.6 percent in 1985 (Taylor, 1990). Some will find new destinations outside their countries of origin. Migrants from Lesotho are already known to have begun taking work in “homeland” areas (which South Africa considers to be independent nations), and anecdotal reports suggest that other national groups (including Ghanians, and Ugandans formerly resident in Kenya) have begun doing so as well. Although official policies of source countries discourage this trend,4 it may well continue as opportunities in South Africa decline further. In the past, international migration among southern African nations has been overshadowed by the dominant flows to South Africa, but this too may change in future. In Swaziland, migrants already comprised more than 5 percent of the total population by the 1976 census, with most from South Africa and Mozambique. In Botswana, migrants were only 1.7 percent of the total population in 1981, but the range of source countries suggests the potential patterns of future migration: Migrants come from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Angola, Malawi, Swaziland, and—in smaller numbers—from Nigeria and Ghana. Generally in southern Africa, the female labor force is growing faster than the male labor force (3.0 versus 2.6 percent per year), and there is evidence of growing international migration for employment among women, linked to rising levels of female education, the elimination of legal restrictions on female migration, and changing norms in rural areas. The extent to which changing demand factors may have contributed to increasing female migration is not documented. In a 1978 survey of migrants in Lesotho, 23 percent of respondents who had worked in South Africa were women (Wilkinson in Momsen and Townsend, 1987), a finding roughly consistent with results of both the 1976 and the 1986 Lesotho censuses, in which females were about 18 percent of nationals absent at the time of enumeration. There is also evidence of primary female migration from Zambia and Tanzania and in western Africa (Russell et al., 1990). The proportion of all sub-Saharan African refugees hosted by southern African countries has declined slightly, from 6.6 percent in 1988 to 5.3 percent in 1990 (see Table 8–9), largely as a result of the repatriation of Namibians prior to that country’s attainment of independence from South Africa in March 1990. Southern Africa produces less than 1 percent of all sub-Saharan African refugees. South Africa, with less than 4 percent of all 4   Other African governments view creation of the homeland areas as a manifestation of South Africa’s apartheid system that they do not wish to legitimize by encouraging migration. As noted earlier, several countries (Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi) have in the past imposed outright restrictions on migration to South Africa in protest against that country’s apartheid policies.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 8–16 Sub-Saharan African Source Countries, 1990, Ranked by Refugee Stocks Source Country Region Number Percent of Total Cumululative Percentage Mozambique Eastern 1,427,500 27.4 27.4 Ethiopia Eastern 1,064,400 20.4 47.8 Liberia Western 729,800 14.0 61.8 Sudan Northern 499,100 9.6 71.3 Somalia Eastern 448,600 8.6 79.9 Angola Middle 435,700 8.4 88.3 Rwanda Eastern 203,900 3.9 92.2 Burundi Eastern 186,200 3.6 95.8 Mauritania Western 60,100 1.2 96.9 Zaire Middle 50,700 1.0 97.9 Chad Middle 35,200 0.7 98.6 Senegal Western 24,400 0.5 99.0 South Africa Southern 20,000 0.4 99.4 Uganda Eastern 12,300 0.2 99.7 Guinea-Bissau Western 5,000 0.1 99.9 Kenya Eastern 3,500 0.1 100.0 Lesotho Southern 1,000 0.0 100.0 Niger Western 500 0.0 100.0 Namibia Southern 300 0.0 100.0 Central African Republic Middle 300 0.0 100.0 Malawi Eastern 250 0.0 100.0 Othera   6,500   Total refugee population 5,215,250 aSource country not specified. SOURCE: Data from U.S. Committee for Refugees (1991).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 8–17 Sub-Saharan African Asylum Countries, 1990, Ranked by Refugee Stocks Asylum Country Region Number Percent of Total Cumululative Percentage Malawi Eastern 909,000 17.43 17.43 Ethiopia Eastern 783,000 15.01 32.44 Sudan Northern 726,500 13.93 46.37 Zaire Middle 370,900 7.11 53.49 Somalia Eastern 358,500 6.87 60.36 Guinea Western 325,000 6.23 66.59 Côte d’Ivoire Western 270,500 5.19 71.78 Tanzania Eastern 266,200 5.10 76.88 South Africa Southern 201,000 3.85 80.74 Zimbabwe Eastern 186,000 3.57 84.30 Uganda Eastern 156,000 2.99 87.29 Zambia Eastern 133,950 2.57 89.86 Sierra Leone Western 125,000 2.40 92.26 Burundi Eastern 90,700 1.74 94.00 Djibouti Eastern 67,400 1.29 95.29 Senegal Western 55,300 1.06 96.35 Swaziland Southern 47,200 0.91 97.26 Namibia Southern 25,000 0.48 97.74 Mauritania Western 22,000 0.42 98.16 Rwanda Eastern 21,500 0.41 98.57 Kenya Eastern 14,400 0.28 98.85 Angola Middle 11,900 0.23 99.07 Mali Western 10,600 0.20 99.28 Ghana Western 8,000 0.15 99.43 Cameroon Middle 6,900 0.13 99.56 Central African Republic Middle 6,300 0.12 99.68 Nigeria Western 5,300 0.10 99.79 Congo Middle 3,400 0.07 99.85 Guinea-Bissau Western 1,600 0.03 99.88 Lesotho Southern 1,000 0.02 99.90 Botswana Southern 1,000 0.02 99.92 Benin Western 800 0.02 99.93 The Gambia Western 800 0.02 99.95 Niger Western 800 0.02 99.97 Gabon Middle 800 0.02 99.98 Mozambique Eastern 700 0.01 99.99 Burkina Faso Western 300 0.01 100.00 Total asylum population 5,215,250     SOURCE: Data from U.S. Committee for Refugees (1991).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 8–18 Lesotho Population: 1976 and 1986 Censuses Characteristics 1976 1986 1976–1986 De jure population   Total 1,216,815 1,577,536   Male 587,348 760,472 Female 629,467 817,064 De facto population   Total 1,064,188 1,443,853 Male 458,260 648,021 Female 605,928 795,832 Sex ratio (male to female)   De jure 0.93 0.93 De facto 0.76 0.81 Absentees   Total 152,627 133,683 Male 129,088 112,451 Female 23,539 21,232 Percentage of total de jure population 12.5 8.5 Intercensal growth rate   De jure   2.6 De facto 3.1   SOURCE: Data from Lesotho (1987).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 8–19 Mauritania Population: 1977 Census   Foreign Nationals Mauritanians Total Age Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Number   0–14 4,440 4,592 9,032 300,797 278,909 579,706 305,237 283,501 588,738 15–59 11,642 6,745 18,387 307,481 346,015 653,496 319,123 352,760 671,883 60+ 406 343 749 33,553 43,907 77,460 33,959 44,250 78,209 All ages 16,488 11,680 28,168 641,831 668,831 1,310,662 658,319 680,511 1,338,830 Percentage   0–14 15.8 16.3 32.1 23.0 21.3 44.2 22.8 21.2 44.0 15–59 41.3 23.9 65.3 23.5 26.4 49.9 23.8 26.3 50.2 60+ 1.4 1.2 2.7 2.6 3.4 5.9 2.5 3.3 5.8 All ages 58.5 41.5 100.0 49.0 51.0 100.0 49.2 50.8 100.0 Dependency ratioa   53.2   100.6   99.3 Sex ratio (male to female)       0–14 0.97 1.08 1.08 15–59 1.73 0.89 0.90 60+ 1.18 0.76 0.77 All ages 1.41 0.96 0.97 aCalculated using 0–14 and 60+ as dependent age groups. SOURCE: Data from République Islamique de Mauritanie (no date).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 8–20 Malawi Population: 1977 Census   Foreign Born Malawian Total Age Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Number   0–9 13,635 13,928 27,562 925,587 955,477 1,881,063 939,221 969,404 1,908,626 10–19 27,242 26,461 53,702 528,545 531,002 1,059,547 555,786 557,463 1,113,249 20–29 23,184 27,410 50,594 376,265 460,438 836,703 399,449 487,848 887,297 30–39 17,075 19,519 36,595 260,218 286,888 547,107 277,293 306,408 583,701 40–49 15,222 17,725 32,946 185,219 204,881 390,100 200,440 222,606 423,046 50–59 13,803 15,159 28,962 116,807 132,955 249,762 130,610 148,113 278,724 60+ 30,261 28,122 58,383 141,131 152,844 293,975 171,392 180,966 352,357 All ages 140,421 148,323 288,744 2,533,771 2,724,485 5,258,256 2,674,192 2,872,808 5,547,000 Percentage   0–9 9.7 9.4 9.5 36.5 35.1 35.8 35.1 33.7 34.4 10–19 19.4 17.8 18.6 20.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 19.4 20.1 20–29 16.5 18.5 17.5 14.9 16.9 15.9 14.9 17.0 16.0 30–39 12.2 13.2 12.7 10.3 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.5 40–49 10.8 12.0 11.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.6 50–59 9.8 10.2 10.0 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0 60+ 21.6 19.0 20.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.4 6.3 6.4 All ages 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa   Foreign Born Malawian Total Age Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Dependency ratioa   42.4   70.5   68.8 Sex ratio (male to female)       0–9 0.98 0.97 0.97 10–19 1.03 1.00 1.00 20–29 0.85 0.82 0.82 30–39 0.87 0.91 0.90 40–49 0.86 0.90 0.90 50–59 0.91 0.88 0.88 60+ 1.08 0.92 0.95 All ages 0.95 0.93 0.93 aCalculated using 0–9 and 60+ as dependent age group. SOURCE: Data from Malawi (1984).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa TABLE 8–21 Congo 1984 Census Results   Foreign Born Congolese Total de Jure Population Age Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Number   0–9 10,279 10,646 20,925 294,671 292,358 587,029 304,950 303,004 607,954 10–19 5,615 7,265 12,880 219,249 224,341 443,590 224,864 231,606 456,470 20–29 13,031 13,379 26,410 136,757 145,582 282,339 149,788 158,961 308,749 30–39 8,638 7,302 15,940 79,776 89,774 169,550 88,414 97,076 185,490 40–49 3,965 3,275 7,240 61,977 67,420 129,397 65,942 70,695 136,637 50–59 2,236 1,708 3,944 44,480 55,998 100,478 46,716 57,706 104,422 60–69 1,062 839 1,901 28,701 37,428 66,129 29,763 38,267 68,030 70+ 478 399 877 14,057 17,526 31,583 14,535 17,925 32,460 Undetermined 555 476 1,031 3,575 4,430 8,005 4,130 4,906 9,036 Total 45,859 45,289 91,148 883,243 934,857 1,818,100 929,102 980,146 1,909,248 Percentage   0–9 22.4 23.5 23.0 33.4 31.3 32.3 32.8 30.9 31.8 10–19 12.2 16.0 14.1 24.8 24.0 24.4 24.2 23.6 23.9 20–29 28.4 29.5 29.0 15.5 15.6 15.5 16.1 16.2 16.2 30–39 18.8 16.1 17.5 9.0 9.6 9.3 9.5 9.9 9.7 40–49 8.6 7.2 7.9 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 50–59 4.9 3.8 4.3 5.0 6.0 5.5 5.0 5.9 5.5 60–69 2.3 1.9 2.1 3.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.9 3.6 70+ 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 Undetermined 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa   Foreign Born Congolese Total de Jure Population Age Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Dependency ratioa   35.7   60.8   59.4 Sex ratio (male to female)       0–9 0.97 1.01 1.01 10–19 0.77 0.98 0.97 20–29 0.97 0.94 0.94 30–39 1.18 0.89 0.91 40–49 1.21 0.92 0.93 50–59 1.31 0.79 0.81 60–69 1.27 0.77 0.78 70+ 1.20 0.80 0.81 Undetermined 1.17 0.81 0.84 Total 1.01 0.94 0.95 aCalculated using 0–9 and 60 and over as dependent age groups. SOURCE: République Populaire du Congo (1984: Tables 203, 204).

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa REFERENCES Adegbola, O. 1990 Demographic effects of economic crisis in Nigeria: The brain drain component. Presented at the Conference on the Role of Migration in African Development Issues and Policies for the 90s, Union for African Population Studies, Nairobi. In Adepoju, ed., 1990 South-North Migration: The African Situation. International Organization for Migration (IOM), Ninth IOM Seminar on Migration, Document No. 1.1. Geneva, December 4–6. Adepoju, A. 1988 International migration in Africa south of the Sahara. In R.T.Appleyard, ed., International Migration Today, Vol.1: Trends and Prospects. Paris: UNESCO. 1990 South-North migration: The African situation. International Organization for Migration (IOM), Ninth IOM Seminar on Migration, Document No. 1.1. Geneva, December 4–6. Afolayan, A.A. 1988 Immigration and expulsion of ECOWAS aliens in Nigeria. International Migration Review 22(1):4–27. Choucri, N. 1985 A study of Sudanese nationals working abroad. Unpublished manuscript, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass. De Vletter, F. 1985 Recent trends and prospects of black migration to South Africa. International Migration for Employment Working Paper MIG WP.20. Geneva: International Labour Office. 1988 Migrant labour squeezed. People (Southern Africa) 15(2). Financial Mail 1987 Migrant labour: Quest for reform. (South Africa) 103:31–32. Gould, W.T.S. 1985 International migration of skilled labour within Africa: A bibliographical review. International Migration 23(1):5–27. Haub, C., and M.Kent 1986 1986 World Population Data Sheet. Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau Lesotho 1987 1986 Population Census Preliminary Results. Maseru: Bureau of Statistics. Makinwa-Adebusoye, P. 1987 International migration in tropical Africa: Current trends. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Workshop on International Migration Systems and Networks, University of Benin, Nigeria. Malawi 1984 Malawi Population Census 1977, Analytical Report, Vol. I: Population Characteristics. Zomba: National Statistics Office. Momsen, J.H., and J.G.Townsend 1987 Geography of Gender in the Third World. London: Hutchinson. Orubuloye, I.O. 1988 Recent immigration of West African citizens into Nigeria. African Population Conference, sponsored by the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Union for African Population Studies, and Central Statistical Office, Senegal. Dakar, Senegal, November 7–12.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa République Islamique de Mauritanie No date Recensement Général de la Population 1977, Résultats Prioritaires, Tome I. Nouakchott: Ministère de l’Economie et des Finances, Direction de la Statistique. République Populaire du Congo 1984 Recensement General de la Population du Congo 1984, Tome III. Brazzaville: Ministère Délégué Auprès du Premier Ministre Charge du Plan, Centre National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Direction des Statistiques Démographiques et Sociales. République Unie du Cameroun 1976 Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat d’Avril 1976. Yaoundé: Ministère de l’Economie et du Plan, Direction de la Statistique et de la Comptabilite Nationale, Bureau Central du Recensement. Ricca, S. 1989 International Migration in Africa: Legal and Administrative Aspects. Geneva: International Labour Office. Russell, S.S., K.Jacobsen, and W.D.Stanley 1990 International Migration and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, Vol. I: Overview. World Bank Discussion Papers, Africa Technical Department Series, No. 101. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. SOPEMI 1991 Continuous Reporting System on Migration, 1990. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Taylor, J. 1990 The reorganization of mine labor recruitment in Southern Africa: Evidence from Botswana. International Migration Review 24(2):250–272. United Nations 1989a World Migrant Populations: The Foreign Born. New York: United Nations Population Division. 1989b World Population Trends and Policies: 1989 Monitoring Report. New York: United Nations Population Division. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa 1988 An Enabling Environment to Retain Africa’s High-Level Manpower. International Conference on the Human Dimension of Africa’s Economic Recovery and Development, Khartoum, Sudan, March 5–8. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 1979 Collection of International Instruments Concerning Refugees. HCR/IP/1/ENG. New York: UNHCR. U.S. Committee for Refugees 1988 World Refugee Survey 1988. Washington, D.C.: American Council for Nationalities Service. 1989 World Refugee Survey 1989. Washington, D.C.: American Council for Nationalities Service. 1991 World Refugee Survey 1991. Washington, D.C.: American Council for Nationalities Service. Widgren, J. 1987 International migration: New challenges to Europe. Report prepared for the Third Conference of European Ministers Responsible for Migration, organized by the Council of Europe. Porto, Portugal, May 13–15. Reprinted in Migration News (2), Geneva: International Catholic Migration Commission.

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Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank 1986 Population Growth and Policies on Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. 1989 Sub-Saharan Africa, From Crisis to Sustainable Growth: A Long-Term Perspective Study. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. 1990 World Development Report 1990. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. Zachariah, K.C., and J.Condé 1981 Migration in West Africa: Demographic Aspects. New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank.