POPULATION AND LAND USE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

REPORT OF A WORKSHOP

Carole L. Jolly and Barbara Boyle Torrey, Editors

Committee on Population

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1993



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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop POPULATION AND LAND USE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES REPORT OF A WORKSHOP Carole L. Jolly and Barbara Boyle Torrey, Editors Committee on Population Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1993

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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 93-86389 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04838-9 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Box 285, Washington, D.C. 20055. Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). B059 Copyright 1993 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop COMMITTEE ON POPULATION SAMUEL H. PRESTON (Chair), Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania RONALD D. LEE (Chair-elect), Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley JOSE-LUIS BOBADILLA, World Bank, Washington, D.C. JOHN B. CASTERLINE, Department of Sociology, Brown University KENNETH H. HILL, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University DEAN T. JAMISON, School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles ANNE R. PEBLEY, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California RONALD R. RINDFUSS, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina T. PAUL SCHULTZ, Department of Economics, Yale University SUSAN C.M. SCRIMSHAW, School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles BETH J. SOLDO, Department of Demography, Georgetown University MARTA TIENDA, Population Research Center, University of Chicago BARBARA BOYLE TORREY, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C. JAMES TRUSSELL, Office of Population Research, Princeton University AMY O. TSUI, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill LINDA MARTIN, Director* BARNEY COHEN, Research Associate SUSAN COKE, Senior Project Assistant* KAREN A. FOOTE, Research Associate DIANE GOLDMAN, Administrative Assistant** JAMES N. GRIBBLE, Program Officer CAROLE L. JOLLY, Program Officer PAULA J. MELVILLE, Senior Project Assistant *   through June 1993 **   through July 1992

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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS Presenters BARBARA BOYLE TORREY+ (Chair), Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C. RICHARD BILSBORROW, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill HANS BINSWANGER, World Bank, Washington, D.C. BILLIE R. DEWALT, Center for Latin American Studies, and the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh ROBERT E. EVENSON, Department of Economics, Yale University UMA LELE, Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida WOLFGANG LUTZ, Population and Sustainable Development Project, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria MICHAEL MORTIMORE, University of Cambridge, England THEODORE PANAYOTOU, Harvard Institute for International Development, and Department of Economics, Harvard University STEWARD T.A. PICKETT, Institute of Ecosystem Studies, New York Botanical Garden, Millbrook, N.Y. SAMUEL H. PRESTON+, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania VERNON W. RUTTAN, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Minnesota BILLIE L. TURNER II, George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University M. GORDON WOLMAN, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University ISAAK S. ZONNEVELD, International Institute of Aerial Survey and Earth Science, Enschede, The Netherlands Other Participants and Paper Coauthors BARBARA CRANE, Department of Population Planning and International Health, University of Michigan MARIA CONCEPCION J. CRUZ WILFRIDO CRUZ, World Bank, Washington, D.C. RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Geography, University of Maryland ALENE GELBARD, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C. SARAH L. HAMILTON, Center for Computational Sciences, University of Kentucky EINAR HOLM, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop SERGEI IVANOV, Population Division, United Nations, New York JEFF JORDAN, Population Resource Center, Princeton, N.J. CAROLYN MAKINSON, Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, New York MELANIE MARLETT, Office of Strategic Planning, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM McGREEVEY, World Bank, Washington, D.C. TOM MERRICK, World Bank, Washington, D.C. TOM MORRIS, Office of Strategic Planning, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM ROBERTSON, IV, Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, New York J. BRAD SCHWARTZ, Center for International Development, Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, N.C. ELLEN STARBIRD, Office of Population, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. C. SHANNON STOKES, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Pennsylvania State University TERRY TIFFANY, Office of Population, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. JAMES TRUSSELL,+ Office of Population Research, Princeton University MICHAEL VLASSOFF, Population Division, United Nations, New York STEPHEN VOSTI, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. National Research Council Staff CARLA CARLSON, Board on Agriculture E. WILLIAM COLGLAZIER, Office of International Affairs ROB COPPOCK, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education DIANE GOLDMAN, Committee on Population JAMES N. GRIBBLE, Committee on Population CAROLE L. JOLLY, Committee on Population LINDA G. MARTIN, Committee on Population JOAN MONTGOMERY HALFORD, Committee on Population JAMES REARDON-ANDERSON, Committee on Scholarly Communication with the People's Republic of China, Office of International Affairs PAUL STERN, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change SUSANNE STOIBER, Division of Social and Economic Studies, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education JAMES TAVARES, Board on Agriculture +   Member, Committee on Population

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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop Preface This report summarizes the discussions and papers presented at a Committee on Population workshop on population growth and land use change in developing countries. The workshop, held December 5–6, 1991, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C., brought together researchers from different disciplines to discuss recent research on the effects of population growth on land use. In its 1986 report, Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions (National Academy Press), the committee briefly considered the broad issue of population growth and the consequences for natural resources. With regard to land use, the report (National Research Council, 1986:33–34) concluded that "Rapid population growth poses two problems for agriculture. First, if no other conditions of production change, expansion of the agricultural labor force probably reduces labor productivity and correspondingly lowers agricultural wages. Second, population growth can accelerate the degradation of renewable resources.... The extent to which slower population growth would alleviate these problems depends on the degree to which the problems lead to other solutions through institutional and technological adaptation . . . if institutions do not adapt as rapidly as needed, slower population growth can retard the decline of labor productivity and the degradation of common resources." In the 5 years that followed the publication of the report, public and policymaker interest in environmental issues continued to increase, and the committee decided to undertake another activity in this area. Instead of reviewing again a broad range of issues related to population and economic

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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop development, the committee developed a workshop on one aspect of the relationship in developing countries: population growth and land use change. The committee focused mainly on agrarian uses because of their important implications for agricultural production, soil quality, and climate change. Approximately half of the workshop was devoted to general aspects of the topic: the history of land use change; the measurement of land use change; approaches to the study of population growth and land use; population-induced technological change in agriculture; the use of cross-national data to understand population and land use relationships; and institutional change. Because ecological, economic, demographic, and institutional conditions vary from place to place, the rest of the workshop focused on case studies. The case studies exhibited a variety of analytical strategies for studying the population and land use relationship. The agenda for the workshop is presented in the Appendix. Summary versions of some of the papers, chosen by the editors in consultation with members of the Committee on Population, are published in this report. A summary of many of the themes of the workshop is contained in the Introduction. The themes represent the views of the individual workshop participants and do not necessarily cover all the important aspects of the population and land use relationship. The committee wishes to thank the Office of Population of the U.S. Agency for International Development, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, which generously provided the funding for the workshop. The committee also appreciates the efforts of the committee members who developed the workshop. Barbara Boyle Torrey chaired the workshop and devoted a great deal of energy and time to developing the meeting and preparing this report. James Trussell assisted in directing the workshop discussion. The committee is also very grateful to M. Gordon Wolman, chair of the Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources of the National Research Council, who provided valuable historical background about land use change and initiated much of the workshop discussion. We are also grateful to the other participants for their informed presentations and discussions. A planning meeting, at which topics for the workshop were identified, was attended by Richard Bilsborrow, Hans Binswanger, Steven Mink, Michael Philley, Samuel Preston, Scott Radloff, Ronald Ridker, Susanne Stoiber, and Barbara Boyle Torrey. Finally, the committee would like to thank the National Research Council staff who assisted in this workshop. Carole L. Jolly had principal responsibility for the workshop and edited this report with Barbara Boyle Torrey. Linda G. Martin provided guidance on structuring the workshop as well as useful comments on earlier drafts of the report. Barney Cohen made helpful suggestions on improving the introduction and took care of unnumerable

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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop s details in the final drafting stages. Diane Goldman completed the logistical arrangements for the workshop, and Susan Coke prepared the papers for publication. Michael Edington copyedited, and Eugenia Grohman, Elaine McGarraugh, and Christine McShane, with Susan Coke, Paula Melville, and Kirsten Johnson, collaborated in the production of this report. Samuel H. Preston, Chair Committee on Population

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Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop Contents 1   Introduction Carole L. Jolly and Barbara Boyle Torrey   1 2   Population, Land Use, and Environment: A Long History M. Gordon Wolman   15 3   What Is Meant by Land Use Change? Isaak S. Zonneveld   30 4   An Ecological Perspective on Population Change and Land Use Steward T.A. Pickett   37 5   Northern Nigeria: Land Transformation Under Agricultural Intensification Michael Mortimore   42 6   India: Population Pressure, Technology, Infrastructure, Capital Formation, and Rural Incomes Robert E. Evenson   70 7   Mauritius: Population and Land Use Wolfgang Lutz and Einar Holm   98 8   Honduras: Population, Inequality, and Resource Destruction Billie R. DeWalt, Susan C. Stonich, and Sarah L. Hamilton   106 9   Population Growth, Environmental Change, and Innovation: Implications for Sustainable Growth in Agriculture Vernon W. Ruttan   124 Appendix:   Workshop Agenda   157

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