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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 political process when determining a technology's acceptability. Precise estimates of development times are also hard to make, because these times will depend on the quality and level of development effort. The committee estimated that about 12 years are typically required for a technology to progress from concept through demonstration. Once a technology is demonstrated, time for construction and startup of a production facility would probably be similar to that for the existing program, in which design, construction, and systematization of a facility require about 5 years. ⢠Costs must ultimately be considered. The committee decided that cost estimates were premature until the number of options is narrowed and more detail about them is known. Thus, no cost projections are made here. However, the committee believes that the selection of any alternative technology would likely incur additional program costs, largely because of technical development requirements and program delays. CHARACTERISTICS OF ALTERNATIVE DESTRUCTION TECHNOLOGIES In characterizing alternative processes and technologies for chemical weapons destruction, the committee focused on the following: ⢠Functional performance. The capability of the technology to treat or process the different agents, solid parts, explosives, propellants, dunnage, and air streams; the liquid, solid, and gas waste streams generated; and any requirements for further treatment of solid parts or waste streams. ⢠Engineering factors. The degree and manner in which engineering factors (e.g., explosion potential or extreme conditions such as very high pressures or corrosivity) may affect a technology's effectiveness, its potential for successful development, and its safety and hazard potential during operation. ⢠Development status. The development and demonstration stage of the technology (whether laboratory, conceptual design, pilot plant, in commercial use for similar operations, or used previously to destroy one or more chemical warfare agents). Development status is an indicator of the time required for full development. As discussed above, this time is difficult to estimate because it is determined by many factors, such as the level of development effort. Typically, to progress through the end of demonstration from the laboratory stage takes 9 to 12 years; from the conceptual design stage, 10 to 11 years; from the pilot plant stage, 7.5 to 9 years; and from the beginning of demonstration itself, 3 years (see Table 4-2).
