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REQUIREMENTS AND CONSIDERATIONS FOR CHEMICAL DEMILITARIZATION TECHNOLOGIES 89 carbon atoms might be converted to CO2, which could be liquefied and stored or converted to a salt (calcium carbonate). TIME REQUIRED FOR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION Any use of an alternative technology for chemical weapons destruction would require that it be fully developed and demonstrated, requiring a corresponding extension of the current destruction schedule. No alternative technology was eliminated from consideration here because of the time required for its full development and demonstration. Time estimates are presented below for any technology to go from concept through demonstration stages. Each technology was evaluated for its current status with respect to this standard. Although generic time estimates are useful in assessing the technological options, the actual development time required for any option would depend strongly on such variables as the difficulties encountered, the level of effort, and the capability of the group carrying out the program, as well as other factors discussed below. The following steps must be taken in developing any new destruction technology: ⢠Concept development. Time required for concept development is an unknown, often depending on invention. No time is estimated in this report for any technology still in concept development. ⢠Laboratory data development. Bench-scale tests and experiments are required to determine chemistry and kinetics. ⢠Concept design. This phase includes the development of flow sheets, heat and material balances, equipment design and selection, and schedule and cost estimates. ⢠Pilot plant. Test needs and plans are developed for a pilot plant. This step requires time to design, obtain permits, construct, test, operate the pilot plant, and evaluate performance data. ⢠Demonstration. Demonstration entails design, obtaining permits, constructing a facility, and conducting tests equivalent to the Operational Verification Testing (OVT) recently completed at the Johnston Island facility. Such tests, with agent, would be conducted in a special facility, such as the Chemical Agent Munitions Disposal System (CAMDS). ⢠Production (destruction) facility. Bringing the final destruction facility on line will require design, obtaining permits, construction, start-up, and the beginning of operations.
REQUIREMENTS AND CONSIDERATIONS FOR CHEMICAL DEMILITARIZATION TECHNOLOGIES 90 Table 4-2 presents estimates of the time required for these steps on the basis of input from various outside sources, including Army estimates made at the committee's request (Baronian, 1992a,b; see Appendix C) and the experience of committee members in industrial applications. The development of a major new technology from the stage of lab data development through demonstration would likely take 9 to 12 years. Development times could be delayed or accelerated by a number of factors beyond those noted above. The development schedule might be delayed by the absence of DOD pilot testing facilities, delays in obtain g permits, and additional requirements associated with the handling of chemical warfare agents, including personnel training. Thus, development time would not be so much a question of technology limitations; these further time delays might also raise issues of public acceptance and obtaining permits for pilot processes that have not been previously demonstrated. The time to produce a production facility would probably be similar to that for the existing program, with design, construction, and systematization requiring about 5 years (see Table 1-1). The time requirements indicated in Table 4-2 are typical for a new technology with a separate stand-alone development program and no program overlapping. Development times could be shortened if any of several conditions is met: ⢠The technology is only a small modification of an existing, fully developed, commercial technology. Use of a modified JACADS might be possible, but only if it did not interfere with production run requirements. ⢠For a demonstration, only minor changes are required to an existing facility. ⢠The Army is willing to overlap some steps that might normally be done sequentially (probably at substantial additional cost risk). ⢠The required scale of the destruction facility is small enough that a decision could be made to omit intermediate-scale, pilot plant studies and to proceed directly to full-scale development and demonstration. As Table 1-1 suggests, the Army expects to begin construction of the last planned facilities in January 1995. However, reaching agreements with local communities, design, and obtaining permits could easily consume the 2 years from the time of this writing until then. Even though 2005 is the completion date for stockpile destruction, there may not be enough time for new technologies to replace the current baseline technology and meet the destruction target date.
