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Could ~1~ it cb~apler presents {or each oftbeseve~st~dy cou~ie~sade$c~pli~on ofecono!m~ic expedencein recbsnldec~des and1be~sults ofour~an~lysis~sof e~ oft expe~d~ence off Wild de ~ s, ~1 mirages, find Stand second bibs. Bols~an~a~!i~s~cu~e~lly ~e~cbesl~of1be seven cou~riesin ours. pie, Dim 1.987 gross ~81!~0~ pout {GNP)perc~p~i~ of~$1,050 (David Blank, ~1989b)~.~Cbm~p ~ d wi~moslotbersub~Ssibansn/{dc~ncoun~ies~Bsol$~na ~liesl~i~le off ~gfic~ul~urefor IS income. In 1987 agd~c~Qlmrz~accou~n~d for only 3: percent of g~$s domestic orod=1 {ODPT~. id (~l~cludi~n~ man . , , ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ er~le~ac1io~)eccoub$es~for57 pe~cen~l~$andserv~icesfor40 percent Ever. so 7~0 pe~cenlof ~e~l~aborforce wasempl~oyed:in ag~cicul~lu~ei.n 1~980(9Vod~d Bank,1989b). Tbc m An ag~cul1:ar~ prodb~l~ssreliv~e~stock,sorghum.~malzo' and Cool crops (Cenl~2 In~teI.J~igo~ce Agency. 1939~. )4~.~i~^ ARMS ate m For indus~i~lac~viC~ ~ccoundng for50~pe~=e~lof ~ OP~.n 1988 (CeStri11~1el ligence A~g~nc~ 19!89). produces and ex~po~s copper and nickel. Both is 1be only county in our s-~napJe 1ba1 bus displayed strong and consistent ~o~tb tbrou.~b the last thee decades (see Figure 5-~1 for cb~ngesia G~I%Ppercapi~). ~0 ~ s~uc~ueofBo~aoa~ econ(~ny
Cushy ~ bag caged. drasli!cal~l~y over this faded. h~ Rely an o~duct:~on of cages and cam. ~0 1n Ace 1960s, Me economy ages ^ ^ In. in 19~6~7 We SO ^ ~ ~ 1 19~82 (~ill~and ~ok~ge~ 1989) The sba~ of GOP accounted for by Hindu try {~bicb includes mat arose Mom 19 peeve in 196~5 lo 37 pp~e~1 id 1987 (mold Balk, 1989b). Overt revenues based off miners Also inc ~pidl~ ng Ram Pen of Mover ~evcnuein 1~1~ ~ #~ ~ 1~1~ ~ ~ ~ Fluc~lu~ationsin. Reprice of diamonds ~= ~nimpor~1~s~ou~e offer u~ionsi~n~tbes~i~comc of Bol~s~ana~ Bec~use~oftb~bi~ib degree otbe~1e~ g~neity of~di~onds~n~osl~d~dp~ce~ser~si~sp~Y~ailablC according an index offers Sue fordi~onds.~d~.~mond pice~s~ro~s~r~pidly between 1~8 1~. ~~ ~.~ ~ my between 1982 Add 198! One Big and \li%~hL 19890. awe skying at Bots~ana's groan ails tbc Grsl years~of Me 19~8~0s;` ~o~c ~i~lb~1he sbaro Hi- ^ increase in per capita ~ in 1~:, elects these movements fin d~i~ond paces. The policies Ace governme~n~tof Botswana bas~fbllo~ed since diamond ~ s . ., mining began bee been aimed ~ Odin ~ buildup of duet and: stib~iIizing . ills Y~tb~i ~(l~s89)s ~d 1ba1 doing tillers ~ exc~plionall~y blab diamond pricks. 1be g!overnme~1 saved a s~ubsmn~ti~ potion of He ~ind~l~1 hi. in Movement Endues (in ~c ~ off MOB asperses) lager! @~ -i!nc~as~n~ cx~nditu~s. Likev!i.se, abed diamond prices Eli in .e~d~y 19~80s,goven~nenl~pendi1~cres ~nolg~au~y filed. ! dais 1~y?eotpolicy bu~rs.con~sumers~om sboc~ks~d~ue~-lodb~ngesin cam modify pacers. ~ ~ alas lisle ev~i~de~c<~on 1be~sdis~buti~on of income ins Bols~na. Me iambus =cebel~een1besbareof ~eliborfo=etba1 4gri~cultu!~ employs !i8~d Me sb ~ of GOP ilp~od~c~s suggests dbal~inc ~ ~!m~y~be~neg~all~y daisy labeled. Ho~e~ver,cen~1 possum m~te~xpendi~lures~on education,bc~., ~d.soci~ seFY~ice~sbaY~e~inCeas~drapi~dl~y!sisc~s1~972s!~(\Vod~d~B~nk~19~S~9b). Porexs~plc,~e abet of~o$~s~=ion~prodg<1 ~loc~d~m p~blic~be~al~ ox=~di~= rose Cam 2.02 =rc~nl ill 1~2 all 2 ~8~0~ Eat in 19~87. Coupled . . ^ it.. all ^ ~^ ^ -a in.. ~ ^ ~ a ~ - , tbis!pe~od.1be~inc~ased share imp~I~i~es~la~ge~i~cre4scs in boalfb~xpendi~ u~s~pe~, person. Furtbe~no~,s~insce ~sead~y~1980~s~.tbe~governm~lbas rug al ~ e~scile~f~od ssecud~1y!pn0g~Us Maims go i~nsulale~rsral blouses golds ~ the ace oidrought as Cellar generally ~ improve Be nu~=i~lion~otpoor ~nd.cb~ldren. Tbbse pieces o!fev~idencosugges11bat n~ll~ivi~n~ sl~nda~dsbaverisen. Ho~ever,anyconcl-usions about blot Deli venous gaps age doing await more comp~re~bon~sive i~n~fb~nalio~n on He d!iS1[ibuliOn o~fbo~tb pd.va~ incpmesand gover~me~ntexpendl~lures. lain sum Mary, dbo economic data indicate steady increases in average
EM HEM ~ S~~ ~^ Bots~as~. ~1bsou~b it is ala clear ~betber rung and urban livings standards are growing als~i~milarrales. ~ e ~ cents of~minerils tba1 Botswana exports brave experienced some Early extreme ~uc1~1ions over He p~stdecade.prod~uc~i~n~ Cuctuationsib ~ DO However 1b6~gov~em: mon1 appears to bevy managed booms~nd blush so as no~m~i~nimi~ze tb~it .^ . ., . em sects on. .lvl~ng stag ash Is. plan abet rollmops, me an~y~ze tbe~efRols~of~movemen~ in G OP per ^ Spit on de~mog~spb~ic 0~1com~e~s~in Bots~ane. able fib sober econ~0mic~i~ndi~c-alors. Our o~pl~ysi~s is ~so~resthc~d to the total s leaf children and of Doreen from the Dem~ograph~i~c~and Health Survey (D H~S)~taken~in 19~88 becau~sse~dala on udban:~uralsre~sidencp ~ece~ssary forouraniTy~si~s ~ere~notcollocted.} )ioneove~ because B01swin~a his not expedenced~ prolonged or severs D~uct~l!~ons fin livid s~ndi~dk ~ ~ ~- rela~onships between G DP par Apia and the demograpb~ic o~u~o~mes age likely to be found. Botswana is one of1be fact sub~S~abs~an Picas pop~dl~ions that brave sub~st~1 p~ognessin demog~r~pb~i~c~1~nsili~0n~n recent decades The imp at mousy ram dial tb~e mid~lSsSOssi~s~tbouBb~1lo hove been~sl~o~ as 30 O~1~ 1e/~ the tale 1980~$ Ads 4~.9 c~bild~n per Bomb (Coben. 199~37. gown ~ in flake age at! mileage in comp~i~son Pith the ~S1 of subs SAID Alcoa (van de Mile, 19933, even though me e$ti~m~ of me hi.) aged gage of maimed Cam me 19~8 ~Demog~bic and Hbi1~ S~urv~y is at' We decline in ~1 and child modality as es$ima~d in OF analysis is shoots in ~d 3-~1 E ~e~o~ality Mob cb=ts me devious in me log ~d esti~d risks ~1 Sulked mom ~ Poisson Recession -~1:~ included its ex~pla~alo) ales the Ore coiled Acid dummy Fable Web calendar yew A~l~ougb ~pa~ is note smooth.. me decline in ma idly is clew and onus Isis indicts gag it Has indeed si~iOcanl (see able ~5- 1~. hew Beg no statistically s~ign~i~cant ye-1-ye vacations Roland 1ho 1~ 1<,~ Pu~e:~ord, given the steady economic game in ~Bots~ana ill recen~t decades, Be absence of gay e~c1 of 1be loam of GDP per cavity on i~n~n~1 and child May once the time trend is Ken ink conside~ti-, is age Abe cold :mor:ilily =~ly$~is. Intel on ma ~motber'$ l~n~tb off Sided kiln Su~nl Splice is Id and far able mediate ad ~rt1111y analysis i~n~ation on tbc Coma' ~si- dence al ~ 12.
not ~n~ <~ ~e i-2) ~7 vats ~( ~ ~ ~s~~ ~ v, grow and in sum, am both subslan~1i~11y g~ateF than 1~0 the cuff tab me use in distinguis~bing significance. Ibid ~s-uli~d~s Snot mean ~ ~c secu- ~1= Dine in morality bus ~no~1 beets iS~sOC~ia1od ~i~ Me Lose in GDP in :recenl decades. It implies merely Hat ibex ye~lS^ye~ vacations amend the Band of He logjam of GDP per coin brave not been related lo He yew . , , . todays v~atl~o~ns in ma ally. Figure i~ 1 also Ebbs He deviations of He 1~ odds of m~i~ng, based on ~ model wig He of woman and d~!mmy vocables ~r Cob Blend. ye=; ail indices got He as of mange have docli~d splice ~1975:. He ISIS dial Table i-1 cloned a don Hand fin tbe~ log of ~/ manage far the entice peak Ham 1960 ~ 198~7 Ed Mica to signi~c=1 Don Lund tab gland ~o~e~e~ Ace results in ~g 3~7 suggest lb<t the logarithm of GDP per capon was positively assailed Dim ache ~bibili~ly of maybe, Ones of gonad. Tab is. Lough Me odds Me bagel shown ~ secular dealing y<~year~in~ase~s (mucuses) Imp per Cupid gem 8$SOCi- ~dE ~:~g bigger Eloped mange odds men otherwise expescled, as indi- caled by the coef~c~ie~nts~ far tb~e c~1 and to- and t~o-year lagged values of GDP as ~ Dip and in sumac Ace Eva as to be con~mpons Ace. No crier tad over lime appears Sian He Ars1~bl~h odds airs Bo~ls~na for the 1960~1987 period~(T~ble 5_~1) 2 T#r! Gem Ionic v~dation$ ham year to yeah and the probabi1~ily of big ~ Act blab appp~10 bane been positively (s~oci~4~ aim ODP per caped Gable <~2~)~. ~Tbe secon~d-b~i~b odds declined overly ~mes~s(~ible i-ElT~.~ as is agent smcp ~198SO in Figure 5~1. Tbe s~ign~i~Ocani va~ia~ons ~in. He alter around the tread were ~s!p:~po~sitiv<~ly asssoc~i~e~d ~l~s>G~DP par Cupid (liable ,-2~. In summary, in Bots~as~ vari~i~on~s fit COP pe10f Bland do nova appear to bove ban relisted ago cues ill i~nf~n1 and cb~ild~ moodily in recent yeah, but Bailey brave been (o~il~ively Led ~ He log odds of s marriage sad Cast ~d~seco~d binds. accuse effects me also fluid gage in co~sadson affects mat we gill see for other countries. honeyed because Botswana bus e~xpedenced blmosl~i~rn~pled~spconomic P~o!~reSS. this Ending cell traversals. ~ - ~ ~ not provide evidence of the ~ ~ , . ~ ~ ~ gabs education is iced inns the gel, th~ is ~ sonic ~$itivc gad over lima (p = .~) Me Pie: - He Id 1~ is 0.0~. guts. ogle education is ~lo~ Ad. ~ adds of Cat ~ ~lo have ~ imaging car time.
~ i If: at: ad: ! ~ !~ at :: :~ = 5 i- _ .~ _= ~ ~ ~ art =~~ t~ ~ ~ ~ $ P $ ~ :- ~: o .~ ^ ~ . c : : = .~ o '8~ ; :~~ _ ~ =~ go, i= . · · # # # $ go: a! =: a: Ace: Ace. :~ = = _ ._ ··· · ··,~ ~ ~ # a : ~7 2:: .~ AS != ~ :: o ^ 5 . ~ ma: at. ~ := # ~ ~ 4 ~ a: an: o !- ~0 S at' at: a: an: ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ $ ( =~: ~d data ~; 6~0l^0o ~= 30q ~; s~el^ao go: = ~= Ad: =: i:{ ~ ^= , .~ a: :? : S I : , ~:S ~ a: = 0 ^ :: ^ ~: .. ~ ,8 ~ o C
~1 Bogota T:~.:me~ Period off Demonic Ou~o~s. Child Par Pied S=ond Y~Ii~y ~gage Bag Bag .~ ala tsar ~ = ~.~*< .~* .16 ~.~*# \6 v=~.ati0 ~,~! I** , ~,~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ^~ of aide .70 a* ! ~its* Is** \~# ~S ~S gilded lp~,l0~1 - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~- - ~0 ~. S! -A 4.3 ~s 4~,3!68 ~3,227 all Society dialysis, <~< ~ child is a,! ~ of ^il<y~is is 1970~19~7 c ~d! ~ =il~y$bs~. ~ of amp gists c~#llcd; Ad ~bo~d~b~b an~y$i$, c of ~~ ~d. ~1 ~c ~bi~b~!~s compelled. ^<lod~of ~alysis~ is ~1962~19~87. ~ *a its ~ ~v~c of < .10; ** Beg. ~<vilue of < hi TABLE 532 Exacts off Reese Gross Domestic Produce per [gin 0!g Demo~b~i~c Outcomes, Botswana gild Pir$t ~t Jollily Tiara B:i^> ~ second Bits - ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ 1 / ~O lo or ~s.i6 2 0.23 ~.17 o~!~S1 0.87** ala of 1 ~ 1< 1 ~$~-~1~ ... ^ : ~- ^ ~.84 Diets s .. 59 ^ case Sag ~, . 1n mo~ali:y analysis, age of child is colt Peat ~ analysis is ~1970~1987 ~ mat at. Bob <polyps, ape of Imp is con=61~d; iS ~o~d^~b~ I. arc of woman Id IBM since fit bit am cold. Adam of analysis is 1962~1987. ~ ~ indites Naval of < .10; age mats ale of < .sOi.
=~ ~~e ~_~1^ Economic Experl~ence Ghan\ is clas~si~e~d~# ~ loo coun#,~/i~ ~a ~1987 GAP per e~i!la Of ~$~S9Os ~ d Bang T9i89b). Its ~onom!y figs abased lame* son ri~cuJ~lu~, ~bibb accounted ~r il~pem~n1of gaffs domestic prodac$~s~i~b 19~S7 Brian cidn~#s~1 dip 3s4 alit !°! all Sum- countess Me SS9 plod 5~# peters otS (e labor awe in 19~8~0 world Bum, ~19~9b).~ main agricultural pI~1S am cocoa, cue, Drool capes. maize; ~so~bum, milled Id groundnuts~Es~=e major upon crop is cocoa, ~bicb~ss~c~, Bar 57 peat of the vault of lOl~ emus in 19S82s19~84 (Mao 2^3)~. Mike , . . role Of cocoa is sassed in mob of IRE econ~i~E lima on Obina,~as~s al . .~ as ~ . bag em~l~oVed a~sub~lanti~il~sbare bf~Sbe~popul~bon add bas been 21~1~rl~s ~ ~. ~. ~ ^ ~, _ . .~.. ~ MESS ~$~o~n~E~ln~S~ti~lgu{~:~ ~ps::~e3P;n~0C~a~:a: 306li~ i: fig s~!d*rdS~sE~eas~ed~by Beg ~g~oss~sdome~sti~c~od~l~per c~p!ita~E~bet~ed~n period can~be~broken. ~ousghly.in~o ~ mood of slag and uneven e~o~tb tb~ougb ~1974. gad tube ~ collapse in Tab ~ m 1974 19~80s They ~ !~ through 1~!~ ma k 1hp begonia Of ~< stifle opening ~D~!ng~tbi~s pe~d~od,the~Chan~n economy ~aschirac~ hzed~by 4~g~s- s~i~vei~mpo~-s~ubs~titu~tion policie~s.ex~sl~se gove~rn~mentintervend~on;s~i~n~mia kets~for bath apd~cu~ltu ~ Capons and cons~m~e:r goods, Add a ledge sign of #~pdbbc~ sector Sue coanuy instilled a p~ogn~, of import ~sticdoEs Bill We ably l96O$-s ends #( she in MOP ~ mango, much of Ibid gas condLc~d by aside cuss. expanded rapidly, mom 1.5 Icing in ~1957 to 1~0.0 peace: in ~1966, Its we She ~ m~u~ludng~ coc- duc~d by she e~le~r:ise~s. Real produce:r~ph~e~s for cocoa ded~l~i~ned~pe Teen 1~61 Add 1964~and cocoa output and expc~ls~ll on ~i~tb~!~m~i:d~ 1960s. The decli~e~inih~e cocoasectoF arid conseo~uentresdactionsi~h elbow ~venues,re$ul~d-~n db~e~litge~st balance OI p4y~e~nts dC11Cll ~$1pCp lgagpC~n- dence~. lb~isi~mb~celedio res~ict~ion~sin~i~mpor~ of C~p!i~1 goodsE,~bicb ~ere~necess~rv fbrtbe ceilinged ero~tb of the m~n~uf~cludng shalom and Tbe milky coup of1~6~m~iked that bell of a period of gob for Oban~tb~ persisted _ s~ghfbe eadyE~1.97~0s. Aide tbC recovery was a 3~r ma Flailed Options of Gb~na's omit cx~d~nc~. ~c ~Ki:ll~ick (HAS) ~ (19S9). e
:~y ~ solved boom in ~ world cocoa prices in ~1968 and 1969' ~lJo~<d by lie price Enclaves in 1973 and 1974. Me economic policies of pol~ltic~1 regime also diddled Some ham those of ~< old find gem in genes more export opened. Me ~81 producer price of Cocoa rose ~: tweed 1966 gad 1968, and Me volume ~of~cob;oa exports galls Iced Cam l~l~v~l~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ . ~ , . ceal-ln~e ant currency - m tions on come gaffs 197~4 is 1983 ~6 Vase l~g74 to 1~!~ ~ 3~6 Olbe~r chaos in policy included ~ de~v~lu~ion~ #~15 ~ ~1466< abide baas ~1~1i~o~ of import resect ~1~, I ~ Spy ~sevse~1~spo~l~l~c~ys~!~s~j flail, l~he~Impo~ coals OI TIC ln~l'{lal p0~#n!DSOOpCC~40~C9~ plod E~ AVOW, IS' Am pensive price controls for consu~merS~goo~s. sE Ion ashy inset and did not ~11 belong 50 percebYperEinSu~!bet~Se~li~#d~I~S9~p`~tbJ~s~s~rious~17 enod!i~ng the value ofearniggs of~publ~ic sec~!o<~em~loyees~{~)dd~B~- k,1991!). Sect odd,thevol ~ Sofa ded~#oa~d~ll~ed~nse#dys~cont~uob~s~l~ f~kh416,000 ~ tic t!dnS~n 14753~l97~to~l~73s~oob~meiidc~ibs~s~b#~l~9~S3~:l984~ The~rai1 ~ usted only~sp6~dicallito ictbuLt~ #~bl~h~Aitioh<~raleb Smugly of Codoi~tb~bei~hbofib~E~co~htd~es ~itb~bi~hbrScodLcCr~oricSs~(lb~o find Cam volre~oecame ~ problem aortae Mu ~ove~dm6~!t~. Al~o~u~b small ~l~i~agS~aLtEd 10 l~dw~er~oV6rn~mbb~t~<e~be~s~oJ~tlep~eX:po~syl<~miy~ also bye ~ Cli~oral~d some~of~tbe~iav~e~e d~/c~ls~of~ 10wE~ ~produbcr~ph~e~s for ^. . ,. ^ At! T#n~l~ AWES, . . ^ ... ~ . ~ . ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ , ~ ~ shpisl~i~#ed 1~c~eSse~GIyPS~per!~cip~i~4 ~i~th~lEte~1~97~0s gabs 1~cesSto ~boom~in~e~<o#~pri~ces~(p~rliCu!lidyfor~cocoi)~duri~gthl#~time \~beh~fbetennso~f~lrade coi~l~sed~i~ l~!8o~thes~ha~a:~ economy beg~hldsdbled~or ~ mErkedT/~lk~i9~80~ind~I9~8~1~,~;~E~dbe~S~GhinS~!~io~verp#nent~ p~id~coJoi~p~du~ct:ri~pdc6~s~th~ (~ds~e~theS~lo~ #~~ d pSices,~incdhi ~^_ : ,: . . a: a: E ~ E IS ~ asks an gOv~em~m~e~1 avenue. ideas, ano ~ 100o snort~e e~ns0td~\VbYld~!Bib.k, ~ .: : l~e~el~ssof~p~Lblic-e~SpenditurS~on soc~ibli!s~c1~piTic:~1~) odds oh~d~sport,~t:~de~il difiSul~1sld m~k61 Caps. Tbt~e~i~o ficn6fs com~- bined 10 cause $Lbs~slial decli~s Clan the outhaul of else beaded ~1981 and 1983. Me collapse off Gove reveres USA meaty Decline in public beilib sees I bible was only 29 ~rCt!~1~ of its 1980 value Added Wok, legal. expulsion of ~pp~~i~mately 1~ ~il1~1~- Ohms Dam Died pursuit Me collapse in oil pees excreted add~iti~onil s1min on 1be economy, inc~- ing upon une~mpl~menl. By-~l~!~,~ne~ public eip$~di~ture Per person on
en :o 193 1~9iS ~ Icon i~9S~8. shot in In I. ~ ~g~omic~ I ~p~grSm~ ~ OIL ash Ail !! acne Aim ~!~ Is ~ ~< g~ -~# <id ~ Bat consist. of ~ (l~$s~ic as Ill Zion pickax: ~ ~ major Ice me pF9 E~^S~S~ 5~2~ ~ mats ~- beginnings! Aft I pot IF ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ ,~ , ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ . ~s ~ ~ gig was to ~n pries it bin abut lo re~liecl~m~T~.~con~u~. Ace . ~ . .~ s ~ ~ s ~ . sit s s .s I. ~ .. s ~ Phi gas devalued, and ~ producer pages G. cocoons ate incensed 8~5 Powell {in Bed leased between. 19ES gad 19~83. 0~~ policed charades in cad ~ image in Me Acts of c~ivi~1 secants {wbicb badly aged ala l!d gent of ~ei~r~1~977~1~4$s~ass~s~pl$ Of We hang ~=on~s~s~in~!!~!h~ lie . ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ^ . ~ . . 197Os~!~s~d~s~(ys~s!~!~9$05)~ ~d~duc~!igos~!~}n~ Civil ~se<~ice~!$~1oym?~n!~ !~ a an ~ddi#~on~, ~ss~b~4i~ ~g^pr~ment ~gan~S~iny~e~Sl~ng~s~in~! keen sugars (f!gco~i, 5pld>~an~4~#mb~~i~n Despot ink!. ~ Beth e~pen~l: Ems Aeon Ago ~~cr~<s<4~dr~m~c~ly; ~ g~y~S~!~s<~ Sly Id ~l~e~p ~19~3 ~ !198~ Old pa ~1~9~89~)~! ~S am! ~# ~ ~ ., ~ ~ pi Apse of ~ A sieving ! A. ~ ~ At a. .. Mobs ohs, S~4l~b~!~!~ hayed go sc)~!!~5ypol~0s8!s~ ~ ~bOut!!!~!!!bo~ tsar s -it #~ gas Act ~ ! ant ~ 7^ ~? !~e~s~ ?~S:~!-~ss ~ bp~~=ns demo ic ~sog~ome~s~s~s~4s~me~=s ~ols~=a~ $ AWNS OI ~,S alto is S: :' ,.~, ,, :S:~ . :.' ~ :S: S S: ... :~:S:S~: IS: ~SS S:S:S:S: ~ :S::::S:S.S:S . .~ I. : . ~ ~:S a: S:S: as :S:~ So::: .~ MISS ':.. ~ :S~.~: . ~SS .s :S: :.S:: S .ss~ ~ ::S ~ :': S:: ~ ~ it of es Of -~of !!!~oc~pa,s!!~ge~!~qu4~li~ of !~coco~!~!~°< dad, ad ~lbp~oducer!~of~!~coi. as lint in ~ ark of talc .... . s . ~ . ~ . . s s s s .. ~ . I. . .~ . as s s ~ s s ~ s ~ . . s ~ s sat s .~ AS s Is:: ~ s ~ . ~ s .~ ~ I. ~ s cold Ives in ~6 wand price of Bacon $boul!d yield i~r<+scs~i~S~l~iy~igg s~d~is~ as <1~!~ ~d:i~^tly i~jb!~!:~S~C~8SeS! ~ go! ! Imp ! ~C~ls!!~!~!n~omeS O inky ~~ incites ~in~$ove=^0t~!~<o~s~ ~Dd!!~e~n4~ !!: b#~oo~!SS\Ar~ ~bypo~e!sCs ~OUt!~!hO/~ It of 1h9!Se!!~!~leS~ imp ~;^- :~e eel Act! ists^~s~ ~e~ Als^~ls~h ~ls~l~ss bouts man Tool beat dl~(y~-m~i~i~?$ ~inS~?~:::C!~97! ~c!s!~(beca~se~ c~!S~! (~? Tab producer pace of coot spats as 4 Is of ~ lain ant . dada, Id ~ #we !p~:icol~ fist in bear cabs in Allis v~i~Je agog ~1 demographic oboes bob, ~b~p~eYe~r~ 1ba1 in Gbs~a,~producer pies of cocoa brave oaks Smoked infix as: direction Mom v~14 ages. lf r=~ living s~l~d~d$ be ppsi~vely elated lo guild cocoa paces <~as might ~ expected, given incensed government avenue ad evidence of
c0:~y ~ smuggling lo nei~bbod~ dune) es~limiled~se~c~1s of movemen~in pauper princes on ~emcebi~c o~u~ome$ may ~ seri~ousIy Mused. Cbi~I~d. shiv i-mved $ubs~=ti~1y in ~p 195SQs, 1960$, -!s~1970s:$ but in abut eady 198sOs little! p!mg~s~s Deems lo bee beers ad ~sss:lbl~y some vets occurred Bills. ^^ ~ a-- as ^ ~^ ~ ^^ ^ , ~ . , ~ , !l~pprp Is some 1~nalca~on,s!~o~vo~ ^ . fist ip t~ so IS T~~ s ~#llDg {~ mO~sl~ly ~T0sU=^s. ~ Is DUCT asks ~p~ ~ chafe is coven ~!th 8. ~ of =~+s~ as /~^m~;s~ ~%~^~2~lc ;= he edgy 19~80s' as ou~tlised above. Tbe~ ace ~ Usage Teen ~^ ~ ~ 1nc~s<~ sow age Age Best. gun 1~ ~ !ls9~5i3~ tag !~sinQu~lates~ mew ages at maize ~S~lO9d~41~2p~2~ yegrs~(vin~d<~ici,~!~ 993 Bibs Mel bane decJ!ip~d~ slighlly,~bp~!~ city ~ai)~s~hi~h~by~!~i)~opg~ s~-d~s~. esli.matod: am: ~i~lity ~1~ Of ~6s.4~s!chlI-n~per Coma! in the second buff . . . ~ , ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ of ~ ~!<sfim~d~ frisks Of die ~ =~al! . ... , ~, , Lt plu4~sq$~e~pl~ v~d~l~s~lbe ~g of ~ Me Us Clan mo~i~d~cl~i~g is also ens ins they m~o-1tv -amp Air the ~ s lo (sag Fisg~~5~0s.s 3, is e~i~c.~ Me Up in ~b~lp i'3S~ip~-,~hp~ all tuba puerility valleys ~r the lest of no v~dali~- net of Edge .41, .4~1, and .~ for ~e total I Base nl:r~ls Id ~ mo~.~ity. ~OS:1 trouble a~ Be :~sults ~r ~ e~cls of 1bc leas of age , ~ , . . . . tall and ~o mono palm otcocso~(~JPCOC)' ~ anus moslimpor~nt ex- po~ Fortbe~sest~so v~dables.1te e~tclsof ~ cur~sntandlagged~lQg~dibs mlc~va1ue~s e~ll~e-r as a group aria rummage s~ign~i~c~ndy neg~a~vc far blab the and ~ rivals ~ ple$.4 Oh is,decli~nesi~nlbc Inns ofuade sod intbe World page ofcocoa,botb of ~bicb ~reseve~in melba 1970s and eddy 19s80s,a~e associated ~itb~i~ncrease~sin child mo~uJi~ty on~csetbel~nd find moonlit is controlled fbrin~ru~d.a~os India able country as ~ ~bole. ~. . .~ 1 ~C 10g OUCS 01 ~ma~.sge In Ob=s ~11 sign~iC.~lly ram 1962 to 1987 far the Iota and USA samples, but not ~ Domain To gem residing in abbe ~n~ysi$ ads al.so conducted Imply far web age Imp. ~ Sagas ~~ sagest r age gasps 10~23 mama ~ EMS! mama a~ in mob w~g is lily ~ ~o pie.
:^ ~ a: Eras ~ tats Beg ~12~ (me I ~5~3)~ =~ ~ ~ 6~w^~:~S~ ~sc~ Sal A pesos Eyed ~ align ~ I no ~s~l~T~l~c~an:~yea~y~ V~l~ti and He And in me u~ or low samples, bul ~= ants limb 1bC :. Eager go, tease v^~on~s ~<~ ~s~igni#~c~#y~la~d got ~p economic Ides included in glut ~ilys~ls (gee Ably 5-5). ~ ~ ~ For~ts1~#l^~s' ~~s~lol~odds~ss~so~s~i<6lA~y decided me far the I Ad ~ ply, A Iota ~i]ii~c~)l a In Add ~S #hd~SsE~(~3~)E~ ~sO~l~i~thib c~~cii6~1s A He ~<po<~S~qu~n~l~m Idea d ~ ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ p ~ o d ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ E p r ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d f ~ ~ ~ ~ c o ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ~ O C ~ ) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ r ~ ~ ~ ! ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s ~ m ~ e ~ ~e~s~ighi~is~tly~di~l~^m~6ro, t~itb~k~ i~ Cupola fig Say; ~s~tb6~isUmss Otce~)i/.~i~e~l~is~<ti0~iS~y ~<n~tu(~ind~i/~!~is~soc~iS ~F1ed~su!lt. ~ec~oe~cient$~on~?COC~oco~oq(#i:~d!id~}s~Ep!hi)~6 ~6 ~E~yp6~si~z~d~ ~)o~Si~ti~e~<t<~S~on~ ~tb6~sb6~-d~if1b~ds~iD ~iS..5 bol~e~and~r~ru~la~as. ~e~)o~#ms~hd#~\ss~s~s~s~p~~!CerSIlce f~cojoi~sb~s~d~ce~d~p~b~!l~iiies~sE~of~;~blrth~s~<ib!~tbe!s~e~?e s~dl~t~s~!~stt6~!d~bi~s~E~!~i~<dsa~ds?~#e#~ho~ss~il~hi~c~tts - . ~ .~ y~iel~d~i~eS~=c~d~ ~^S~1S~:~ Ibis IS a~issed~tos~ha~s6~ipch~e~6d~s~em~:~m~~ ,, s ~ ~c~.~bJ1~si~sbf~the~moddl~s ~d.~bli~l~i~< ^ iFoc the aura $~p~1e of In, tag Its o~ ~ ~ Spruce of cocoa (Wow) _p bad ~ poetize ewe on :hc *I Is of ~b.av~ins~ a Second birth awe ~d~ati~ of tag ~~ as ~ c~1 1o tbc m#1 ~ vat= ~
( my ~ -lo: :~ ok: -= >e, :: in -~ m~ : lo: if: = =- - -= :: ~ ~ ~ ~ - *: :~3 ~ - : m: ~ ~ A ~ X X · ~ :§ :§ ~:' : ~,~ ~ 'I ~ 'aft' : : - lo: Yin : of: in: hi: 9~. : :~ .~ Kin _ X'~ X~S : A' - Ale: , ~ it' : ~; To -A ~ ~ i ~ lo: '4~:' :~.: Be, 'a .:= _~ $: m: ~ =+ § ~:f ~ X ~X ~Y : ~ 31 =.' ~ := ,,=~:~: .= a: ~ :~:: m: I: =: ~3' 04 := = =' ~ m: :g~, .= :~_ :~_ . lo: = '4~ a' .~, :~ :~: -hi. An' : . .~s := ~ ~= 'a at lo'= ~ ~() Do: t-~ He ~ o'er -= :.5~: ~4 my: ~X5 -lo: ~ ,.: :~ by =: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ X ~ ~ x ~ X It 5 ~:t :~ '4:: £X\ =5 Ad: := ~ = t $~.5. get -% 5~5: ~ By;, ~ ~ ~ <` ~ ~ ~ < ~ . > Y ~ Xj 5 5 ~ :t (-:~:~-,55 ~ ~50~57~\' ~; $~*50~0 : - K =: ~ a: - * :~: ~' :~ '`.* ~ :~.~0 .e' ~ = irk *~5 do: . 05: =5 =' ,~5 ~= By =5 -___= ~ := by - ,,. ~ :~ .<35 em. - : MAX ~ :~e X ~ ~ ~ < ~ ~ ~ < < A: :~: :f :f 655~.0 it: ~755 9~3585~5~:~: ~5 ~i: 5 - ,.,: at' a: ~- -~o ~5 :<. hi* : - .O ~5 - _S a* ._: id' · . X~ ~5 ~5 ~TIC my:, = X :~,,, $ ~ =5 r-5 * - ~S ~ :~ ~ by: £X. ~ := ~ 5 ,,5 >a of ~5~ ~ ): ~By. do ic4 ~5~. :9,`~: 5 5~: - ·w ~ ~_'
-I i: i: : As: Be: := e ;= .¢ a: = = Box . ~ Be; = $ it :~ it : it: :~ - : $~ ~ m~~ ~ = Em = = ~ ~ m~=~ ~x~ ~ As-~g~- ~ ~= x · x +: : x A: :. x . : ~:. x . x ~: .x :. x .: x 4( == ~ :~:: - I= ~x:~::m ~ == ~ 4 ~ 4 X ~ ~ 4 X ~ X - : ~ ~ X: ~ A: ~ ~ -:~O Jed =~:3'ul' ~; s~; l~;X\~0 := "= X,~ . . : ~ 1= ~ XI~ t$~ ~ A* - ?-* :~: ~ 4~ = ~ ~ ~ K ~ X ~ X ~ X *: 4 ~ X ~ ~ ~ O X ads: 6~ ~; sum; ;:~;X ~ ~X~ · fi.- * - ~R X' - * 6 Ad: A ~ (~ ~,X.':p.`, X~ ~ := :~ As: = :~ ~ :~ :~ :.
Kim at - : : ~ =: m: ~ ~ ~ - 4. ~ ~ - : ~ .~q,x := ~ AA A A A:. X' X x i* t: ~ ~ ~ :t uI~ s=~x` ~'6 : :` : $ ~-m : : =: ~: INK _ := Em' ~=2~ ¢ K~ ~2 do:= K 47 ~ -0X 3=X FOX SIX :*~: ~ *= X,~-t {S~ ~ ~E ~ ~ A ~ A A A §: §: it: it: it: t: Am IO 6~1 u~; Staid; ~ X~X~X~ OFF - ~*,=~ - A=:~:= ~ ~ X ~ 4- ~ ~ < ~ ~ :` ~ ~ ~ ~ ~A ¢~3 "~d d~ )U ~'L* ~S~O ~ ~ ~ A:~.0 =4: Id: ~A' 0= ~ $: ~m *I INK Kit Kit := :g~ FIX m := A _K 9_K ARK :~: as' X ~ ho' 42~ ad: INK - ~A~ I. pad - :~3 :;,,,; :~ ARK £~ ,~ =' >~ ~K~ =: K~ ~A~A: ~P~ ~.,O~^ ~ ~K ~=, ~,~A ~=: ': =: O ~A~ - : ~ ~ ~ X X X ~ ~ ~ ~ X X =~0 501 ~*! $~:~*~$ =: ~3 ;' ~b ~K .~: g$~: ~C ~_ ~:'~ ~' ..'= A=O .~ . ._ ~: ~ . ~ r . - =A~ + - X' - *~:= ,* ~ ~ X' ~ ~ 50 ~ ~:t sU:D °5 1*~* `:~O =~: ;^ . ~ '26~= K~ :,=* K~ =: X~O '~~: :' . ~K :O :~ .,MK S~ :~*: A~ oll~ ,~0 :~ - K~ : =: : _= ~A ~K A X,,,*: ~oAale ~K A :,~: ~,~: :~. ~: X - . ~X :r*< ~' ~ =::O ~:- ~ ~0 ~£ ~K ~: ,, - .0 X~ ~,0 04,,~ 90: Am ~K ~ ,KK - ~K 9~*\ '~ '~' '. - XO ~X~ $
Ec0~~c *I ~ s~s/~\ ~ TABLE 5-3 Enacts ~ Theme Peed on Demo~=obi~c Outcomes. GO .. _, ,. ~._.__ ~,~,~ , _ .. ___. _ asset at s .~ ~Rat ~~d -.03 ~.~02 -.Q3 is ~ ~ ~:~.02 ~ 03 -.~01 aft ~-v~ucs~) ~Em ~ En: d gad . ~. ~.~ Aid ~ act GREG ,1~2 go v~ioclon . ~.30 ~00~* ~ ~: ~ .00 ~. ~.* ~ . . ~, to Am ~ i ~n~1 of ends .E4~1 .4:1 ~.04~*! EMS: ~.12 ~E~,~$ .05* _ _ ~ ,~'~ :~ ~ :: :Ss I' 'I ' E S Cast ~ age. +~776 ~ ELSIE :.: ~ i6~mo~, ~ysi$.~ag<~i~ld is c~-l~lcd>. Pc~ of an~y$~$ is ~1970~1987 71) mate -~ ~rst~bi~b lye. a~t Off ~s-~s~!~!~:~^llCdi ~ ~cond~bi) =~y~si$. a ~ ~ ~ - as - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 196~19 of-- ~ ~ ~# Idles ~ ~l~uc~gf < 10; ~ ages !~1~< .Oi. .. . . .. : ::s~E~E: : :: :E: : E:S:S ..:: . . . ..: . . :. :: : :: TABLE SO E^6t~ Of Edonom~i~c YEdable~s on Child Mobility, Gb~ana ...... -s ..... ^ go. . ma... .~.~.,~,~,.- by~47 o ~ 1 . . . 2 Surf coc~!ct~is Phi ~-vaYues~ C#~i.yFts ala Zion :~ sad of ~ .~ Is. ~ 'E'' : E ~sC ~lS . ~!! ~.~. ~ Bowl ..... .. ~..7~6 ~.51 ~ ~° Si :sss,,s ~S~'0~^~3~<'~ ~ 0.02 0.0~1~ ^ ~6s~- ..~? , ^ /1 sSss.:~ ~ ~ 30.14 1S -~ . . ~._ s~s.E <~ ~98 74 ~ ~1 ~.03 ~.26 ^ f ~ ~ ~4 'E !2 ~V ~, . . . ~ ~0.~05 ~ ~ 0~.~ . 016 ~06 n~27 . ~ · ~ .47 .5 75 .13 ~.~.1. 0.~ ~ 14^ t : ~ E ~> ~ ~' % 0,0 1/~;~ ^ em^ ,^ ~,~-~-~ ~27 .~14 006 ~33 .94 .0i~ :' ' ~!52 ~ ~ .~4 .72 ~ < .32 .S9 ~32 .* .63 ,E~* DISC: age of child .^d!~!:~sy~ ~ co~rdl~l~. GDP, =~1~ Lass doggie product Tar t:Jpi!~, ,. . . 1~1~< ~ ~ ~ leg ~ ~ ~ I; 1~1~; ~ ^~1~: I, HI indites ~ ~l:ue ~ < .10; ~ mars a Ovals of < .~Oi.
my R~ ~r p~ Second Bat ~_ art. ~ ~ ~ C~n ~1 ~ ~01 ~02 ~- ~= at* ~at* x ~at* ~* am be* .12 3~2 ME .06 ~ .~02 .i3 . ~8) ~.10 ~}111 iPC ~QCOC PPCOC Am . _ _ . ~ ~1 USA ~ ~Ru~1 to ~ atop ~ ~.~1 ~} ( ~R<~1 /.0~1 0~.25 ~ 1~2 ~ ~1 .26 ~ 13 0.03 O.E66 /~.01 /.~03 ~.~03 Hi /.~36~1.25 /~.50 ~. ~0.~07 ~.10 /~18 Eli ~. ~0.18~I.s48* ~. ~0 02 O ~E9 0.~14 /^~22 0 07 ~.42 ad.=1.49 Be 0~.02 1.32 .. Be* i3 09* ~19 .3 1 .99 41 .88 . ~. . ^ . ,. .~03** .76 USA* .32 .10 .12 92 . ~.91
^~ ^~S ~ s~:~ssA~ TABLE 5-5 Elects of Economic V~abl~es on grange, Gba~a HIP ~ BEE L~= Ru~l:~ Id If R C~SciS 13~ .24 ~ ss~.sil 0.~0 /~.1S asset 04 ~24 0.~19 ~ ! S 0~16 0~32!1. 1 O.S2 !~ ~ ~ 0~.34 O.S2 0~. ~ 0.05 03 ~.19 ~ ~ 24 ~.!~1~5 2 Opel O.^ 0 07 0./ ~.02 0.14 0S.12 0 20 0~.03 c^~i= ~0.40 0~.19 0.49 ~. ~. ~/.03 0.1~2 0 13 o.e ago Is ~ ~ ^ Ashy c~~cie~ is ~= . ~. ~.32 ~76 .43 .9 ~-as ~ . ~. ~ . ~98 .S~8 .19 .33 go COW: Age of Bomb ~ ~= ~ Wool. G~. =~1 ~= ~c pedant ~r Edit. 1~1~; ~ ~ ~ 1~1~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1~1~; MOCK ~1 world palm of came. ~19~2~19~S7; MOCK, c~= Pulpal. T962~196~5~: P~OC, ,~1 ^ ~ 1~1~. . . ~ ~ in~di~s a Ovate of < .~10; ** amens a pa of < +05 TABS 5~6 ~ Meats of! Economic Vie son Fi~rstS~Bi~4,~Gb~ AMP ~.. .................. ~ Sass. !! In ~ If i' Tom ~ !~= ~Tot Orb amp e~s ! ~ ~ads ~ ~ I as: ~ 1 0 0.31! ~0.3!7 EMS S:SQ.20 Pa.* !!SO, ~:~Q!.40~ 0.!Oi Of 1~Q~/ 1 ~.34 as 70 0.02 ~s.14 0 03 ~.32 ~19 ~.21 .18 2 0.~25 0.33 0.1 1 O.~li ~.Oi 0~.34~ 0.07 0.12 ~.01 Sat of ~as. as ~ as ss c~~cie~ts 0.~21 0.~02 0.32 ~D.24 0.080~.41~.07 0.01 /.19 ^$1$ In) C~s ~I: me ~. ~.~5 .93 .14 .82O3*.53 .# .42 Sam of ~ . an. .~.~( ~ _~ is zero .i3 .97 .52 .~* .63.02*~.4, .93 . 17 NO=S: Age of woman Ed yam ~ called CDP. ~1 Bass dowsed ~u~C1 ~r Cagily, 1~1~; it. ~ it. 1~1~; ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1~1~; ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1~1~: ~ ~ ~ !~1~: At. par =~ ~ cocoa, 1~2-1985. ~ * indicates ~ ~va.lue ~ < .10; *a mead ~ ~uc of < .~Oi.
costar? ~= ~pcoc To~1 ~Tribal Rat T0~1 Paw ~1 bt~1 ~Ru~l~ 0 10 0~18 0.01 /~ -10S ~ 19 ~.02 ~.~08 I. .02 /.1.6 0 13 a!. 0.15 ~26 0 18 0.19 .08 0~.16 /.O 009 0.1~1 0.~.04~ 10~.~ ~0.01 00) ~0. .50 .52 .~67.82.:87.69 .41 .~S .81 . ~.33 .~+79.6i .86 . .73 8i .95 ~OC QCOC ec~oc ~ .. ~,~. ~1 ^ ~use ~1 ~ulna ~ ~12 >14 ~10 IS ~15 ~ .13~.~1~1 /.20 /.09 I. /.15 ~.22* ~02 ~ 47~* ~)14 ~1 1 ~15 ~14 ~)19 /.~/.01 ~.13 0.19 0.18 0.17 0. ~0 ~o e .44 .23 .68 .46. ~. ~.25 .89 ~66 ~6 0~** .. . ~ 44 .49 .07 ~S. .15
too ~~ ~# ~ I: TABLE 5-7 E~cl~s of Ec~on~ic Vittles on Second Bi~bs' Oregano ~ ~ma. ~ ~1~ it: ~ :~^ LEE: ~ Add_ Same ~1~ ~ Rd=1 ~ Cabins by ~1~; o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~.~ ~ ~ a ~ ~so. 13 ~ ~. ~ ~ 01 ~0.02 0~:~0 ~0.0~1 EN ~1 ~ ~ EN IS 0~ 76 E ~ ~ ~0,3 ~ ~ Ed .~26 ~ Do. ~1 ~1 ~ 0~24 /.50 /,~~.~23 0~.~1S 2 ~ ~ ~ 50 ~ ~ ~ ~0.23 s~1 .31 Exxon ~ 22 0.~08 0.~150.3~3~ ~ 02 Sumof Scats E ~ /.01 ~0.~, ~67 ~.~1~7 ~001 ~. ~0.~15 0~^I3 0.~1~7 USA >~l~:s~)~ Cow ~ ago ~ ~ ~.7~, ~ ~.~80 ~.3~8 ~ ~.i9 ~ .i~9 oil .~57 .~ .~68 Sac wee ~< .~ ALES: ~c of $~tbirib,=~yc=~co~uol16. C~DP.~al~o$$ dom=~1~r=~1962~19~<EXQ,~q,=1~m ~ x.1962^198~7;TT.~mso~f index, 12187 ~COC,~al dpricc~ amok, l9624198!7~; QCOC. c~~= 1~1~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1~1~. ~'~lcat~sa~v~cof<.10~ ago< a.
wit :~ 1 ~an_ ~ QC ~BLOC U U 0.01~.07 0.08 0.33 ~ ~.130.80" 0.~.pi 0 18 .01~.Oi 0.~0) ~.14 ~ 13~ 38 ~.030. ~.14 0~1 10.11 0.13 0 03 0.31/.~2 ~.~0~10~.03 ~. 0.1 1~0~} 0.23 ~P.23 0.33sO.10 0.020. ~.03~1 .66.79 .<i .49 .40.~02 ~.9~388 .53 2994 .. .11 .30 .~28.7i e.i9 .94 d7
EM ~~= ~ S~a#~ ~^ KE`:~A . . ~ Economics Experience Ken~v~.'s IMP Car cupola of $0 was s~li~btly lower tab --I ~ Oboes in ~1987 (world Bow, 198~9b), be 11$ economy is mom divined: Agric~al ~re accounts id! 3~1 pe~e~a~1 of God isdu\~T~ far 19 penes!, ad s~isce~s far 1be cast ~FbuI~hi of ~< 1~# ~O iorked~ssi) a~c0-tu~ i) 19~80 World Bank,~1~8~9~b)~.ss~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ as Yams major Mod c~p~s~s~incl~ude maize,! (bear+ sump Id acne, Id IS major eras ~ come, ~a, ~ earned ~ol~eum my- ~ ~^~ lively little value Aged. ~ud~m Abe lasso emerged as ~ among sSou:=e of employeest far Kenya; ~i1~ is ~!~ mad< s~ou~!$~ of Reign e~cb=ge ems ~ m service${\Volld Bsank,19533. Tbb Kenya popcorn of yno~vtb ill per C~pi~13 inco ~ been the edgy 1960s and 19~85 is eb~iscal ofs~manv Afican tountd~!s. As sbo>wn-ib~Fig~ 5~5 Maya ex~=detced relatively ~bigb mars of g~~ in par coin 0~ between Begs early ~1960s ad tbe~ early 1970~s, little groan ~rou~b 19~0, ad decIine$ in: we brs1 half of we ~19~80~. , ~ ~ ~ . mob ~ the movement in average Kenya liven standards over fb~isli~e period call be explained by ~ owl ~ and ~gy~ngove _ nl's~egRonses10 ~ m.. ~ Caved dro~ght,gen~er~leconomi!~pol~i~cio$,~nd polil~ic~alins~bi~lity may also bare becnimpo~nlde~nnisants ofliv~i~sl~nd~rds ~ times 1963 to 1973 The bigb-gro~lb ped~od~i~ Kesnya,coved~g ~oughly~1963 go 1973$ alas cbarac~rized by rapid exp~nsi~on~n both dbe r [x~d~ sector The value of _ ought goes ~ as aver agerale of 6.2 peroen~lper~nnu~ baleen 196~5 and 1.9~73 Adobe v~ue~of ~d~u~sldilou~ulgre~ ~ 1~2.4 pe~ce~nt;botb gales there s~b~smn~lially greeter tan Me ~c otpoppIation gro~tb, Mica ~s~o~gb.ly 3.4 percentperyear (Todd Bank,l~9s8~b). Serv~ces,-~ncl~udi~toudsm., also g:~ rapid at7.6 l`be am rows o1 go in. Cult brave bean and 1O Ale tr~nsf:; of bi~gb~g~u.ali~ land 10 sm ~lbolde~ (Tbs~sen and Scotl, 1987~; the adoption of~bi~b-yie~ld m~.~ze~var~iess;~nd Me expansion oicof~e~* ea. and deify prod~ucdon(\Vorld B~nk.1983). Overall. Me highes~lg~o~tb ages in agdculture occun~d in. 1be c~po~-~he~nted subseclor (coffee and ~a). lndusth~ anon ~ was fosered by Me expansion of domestic demand,p!ro~ tect10nis1 policies 1o~ Ad manuf~ctu~d imports, govennmenl~pa~icipal~.o!n Dust p~ioc~,a~d growtbin fo=igninves~menl(~dd Bank,198S; kx~r 198().
art I-! The high gamy rates in all sectors during Be 1963~1973 Mood imply .-nc~ases in ibe Mete many sanded of livings Ho~e~ve~ according to salably evidence on me di~scibuLo~n of =~1 ~ cabs inch, not a11 T~ndi- vid~u~s~m~y baste neared subsl~i~l~y d~udb8~tbi~s period. A 1~983 ad Bad saw concludes By a, add comes tb~ Ace, lay a ~ralpbeno = ho it! unlay 3~ 10 6 pe~=et+~ofurb~n~i~ndi~viduals be~low~tbe po~ve~yline~i~1~9~74~.~tibe~s ~ etime~moTe~tban a~lb~ird~of~!smal~Bbolde~> paslor~ists,~migrin~ hand f~n~sgua~ers~li~v~d~i:n pbvsb~y!;~tbe~bighs^ es1ra~ I 85~pe<cent,~for~pa$1o~d:i!sts.~ Pove~y~!~s~among ~naUbolde~ ~ ~ ~ ~!'~^ ~ ~ ~~ potion fig ~197~4.~ Tribe at ilso~oedti~ Ash p~OpO~10~ 01~ sm~i~01dC[s below ~ Fovea lit Is ~ able Gina ~$omb~b~s~!~bn~ ~ Was. tu~e:~4~u~b~ofib~,b~tb~as Hi' c~oa~e~indlca,~ind only~27~percentand ~12 peToenlof-sm bold ~,~respe~cdvel<~icais~d~stbbso~c!bop~sln~l.~974.~s Louise p~Ce6Ssof~cvidence~skelchy;tbey~co~e~m~6nlyit~o prov~inc~s. even take bogetbe~ tbey~do sVgge~s1.tb~!sa~la~ge~propo~ion of~Keny~s x~ined~li~lt~ ~ m~!~tbesb!i~b gbo~fb~y~e~ars~ofibes~!l~!~6Os~and~eidy~1~97~0s~; Forseve~ reasonsl~e gro~olS~perc~pi~iggom~ein B>n~sq~i~ slob l9~.ands~:l9$~Q ~ s!(Spp Fi~guie~) ! ~ .,~ Sag The oil ~ sbopk of 973 v~rsely~s~cl=~sindus~t~s~ ~deYelopm~nt~ an#~!~Sp!~<s ~1~ ~ 1~ bade Of K~ny<-~s mark~lsslor~manul~aF~S~ o~ul~u1 ~11CQ 5S~.7~=ent~P<r y~ar~d~dp~1973~1~9sSU. ^g~lq~t?~, ~ Wells, ~x~enscedss ~ loon in its growth rates.s~icb~ver~eed~3~.sTsrerce~ntper veer bee 1973 and 19~80~,1e~$$ tbans~(b~ ~s0~4 ).s~ docents <$ pompon grouts ours this pp~gd.~l~is~ ~Sl9~lDgs~s9l~ ~g~p~lB ~g~lCUlu7C a beep a~ibu1<d~0 Parr ve~be~ ·he~sl~c\~pf~oei ~b~isph~qu~i~y lead on (hic~10ise!/p~ d pnodoc(gn, paths hat in ~bbnic~ romaji sand varieties (\Vb~ld,B~4k, 19~.~ . . . ~ . ~ ~. . . ^ ~an, ~ Goven~enlln~rve~Lon in tab odcine of Aldbo~uz~ e~o~db was $1~o~ on averaq~ov~er dbe 1~973-1980 periodic , ~~ 1~13~ #^ booste~d~l.ncomes.sTbe coftp pdcelb~ p~oducbrsin~Keny~rece~g closely In dab world pdce,so this boola mu$1 bare had signi~canteD~cts on income~sforcoDde-gro~i~g am ~lbolde~rs.
~ ~ ~ 3~-~::~ E: Me period ~1~97~8^~1~9~0~ made ~g~inbing~pf ~ decline~ib~ per Wichita income Mat Cal need tb~l~8~5~.~!~A num~of~isOh~s~s~nderl~ *i~s~idEc~l!~. Ike scrooge boom ended ~d~s~oddE~pboe~s~ll~s~4~3~!pe~enl.~tw6~. ~'~ ~ d=~line~d.~^o~Ee~x~e~ated~ss~e~e~ct~!~s~of~eses~d~l~ibes~:~First{~ss~4 \e~d~~@b:lSS~in~1979ESSE:S~C ~l~od~i~maize~-duC~li~on~!d~l~Odi~tosu~S~3 sb~Ss~1bat~r~i~d ~emo~0ncy ~^od~impo~s. ~Es~Second~!~{e~ ~1 979~s Ike p~ce~s~o<$ened~ ~Kop~y~a'~s~ te~is~of~;~!~#c~et~!~e~seE~# ~ ~ve~r~il~-n1 ~of~#DP~ by~l9lO~#dd~p~k~,~l~9S~a)~:~ ~ss~!~!~i~ ..ssss. Is sss . ., s pe~ent~ ~t>te)~i~i1~80~i~d~1~ST~<G~6y,~ IS.. cut actbubt adds Ci1 Shed tom ~5~<nt~of GOP~E~1~98~::~ ~(#rld~s~!B~ ~1~9~89b)~.~ ~sERo~i I It . ................. Ins beaten ~1~9S~O~s~ ~d~s~l984~Ss~ E! ..~. ............... ~ *. .... ... ~ Yes ~p~i~d~to~$~r ~40~1~$~!~{6 i~redssed.~s ~sb~-l~ E~d,~ss~\itb~s~ Excepts of ~$he~1~9~84~d~bt~ye~ Facula Lotus ~ss~lO~g~~!telaliV~Iy~qui!ckly sob ~its~sh-~1n~G~ amp ~ l y i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s ~ ~ ~ s l ~ ~ ~ ~ l y ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ b ~ l ~ e e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ! ~ ~ 8 ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 9 8 ~ 6 i . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ D e s p i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s e ~ ~ ~ ~ b a ~ ~ ~ ~ s ~ ; ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ T lithe In 1985 ad 1988. 19~S5, and ~i~1 inc~as~d only Coin~n~ui~ng d~~l~ine~s ~in ~ ~p~c<~s~of~tbg mais~ dommoditv ex~~ of co~e ond ~a ~e~ on~e source ~6c ~e~ ~^ ~ ~ , ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ^ ~ ln! ~b~ai~ ~11~o~s~, ~ +~e ~iS~ ~e ~r6~l~io6~sbi!~t\~6en ~ ~d~mo>~#b~l~c ou:lcdmb~s ~s ~dE~S~seVe~lss ~ecobo~!i~d~ i~hd~i~ito~: ~ kr~ ~c~ib ~CO6~! S lndi~cts~ ~6fs ~ei ~ler<~s ~of ~ e ~d~E~eiDg~4ui61li~ei~,~'~s~< ~orld~DdoS~s of ~co~e iid~ieS:. ~d~the ~foduccrs~^ce~6f co^:~!~ The!~t ~me~!s~s~S-~ etbe~l~S~!~nd~i~cAto~rs~ssof~s~E~dd~onom~i~c~s~be~ct:~id~e exbbct th6~m~ tb j~c~t~de~b~h~i~d~S~btdbmb~ss~h ~bo~sh~!~^d~il~E~ ~ec~Us~Es~Keni~a ~lo~#sss~s~eE~EwofI~d ~S~d~ pOduter~ pri~cd~s~E~sof~ co^~ ~S~mbYd {o di~#tssu~b~stitti~ly,s~in~e~l~thBr~utbEh or~ruril~reis~.~\l6v~m66G of~c~ ^ S B6d tea pd~e~s sh~0u~1d~tict~bOstb~ithe~incomes~0f~c6~>e~d~E~producj~s . ind~Jovernment~reven~6sthrouib~ti{~es There~fo~re,Eph~<e~i~nc>~isS~s~mi~b!t~ h3{eS ~ ~u~an ~ dem~ogriphic e~ci~s~, S~due to~ ~iddi!l!ibn~l ~ ~go<~m~ent ~ e~ip66~di: tu=~s, as ~ell as ~~ C~^C1S, due 1o ~inc~ises~botb ~i~ idril!~i(~cidm~es ~an~d~in ~o/~ver ~iven ~e Ed~v#~ty~ ~of~th~e Ke~nyan dc~dnomy~andib6~1 1!b~t miny~bt~ bousebol~ds~produce~ho co~te orted, movements da~s. goYe~mt~l~d!lla!~s.~ Elbes~ prices~mlih1:bave onl~y~i~direcle~gl~s obl:~i#~i:nt s~tin:
copay ~ Kenya, like~Bols~ana~, is One of 1~ ~ sub--Saba~ Ahican countries ~ abbe ~-m~ s~ubs~ta~ pass in i1$ de~mpg~ic Scion. ~ ~e~ offal Icily grate ~1J ham ~1 8.0 cb~ild~n per coma in the flab ~197~0S ~ 6 ~7 # ~ _~ ~S ~ # e~e~li~r~ ~dd~^rtil~# Surrey indices ~ amaze baseband d~yi~by~4ge 5 mass b~lved~$~een~ ~1945 ~d~1~9~83~ ~ ~il~1E(~1993) Sties cat ~c p~bb~li~ ~ Figure 5-5~ ~d~1e~ 5~8 indict ~at: ~mo-111~ indeed Cased beg . . . ~ tureens ~ 1~9?~0 ~ gad ~ 198~>E but if ~<h~te~s~s~ ~. Me ~ child finds mowers comae = digs fig fir 4.~ ~ ~= ~ ~S~C~1 ad. Ho~ev~ ~ as ~ib~lS~ Ova no~lear~sigh~c~l!~as$oci~ ~cb=~s page of tea mere negatively =~soc~ialedi~i~b~ cb~i~ld ~o-~i^~ bul~1~e~xpor qualm i~x bag a passe Positive easel; Tbc cues on We opens ecd~nomic indlcamrs did sol have e 1s, fiber ~ a group or in sum.7 Mere as ~ naive had in Me risk Of Maze ~, Me ma, urea. ad ~ samples in Kenya ~ 19~6~2 lo 19~87, As elm s:ign~iB.c~t vada- ti!on Wound Me refed Male i~8 =~d Piggies 5~5, ,~6, ad 5-7) Me ~110~ giant economic variables bad Me b~olbesi~d positive exams on ~c prob- abi~lity of emerge fir We indited sapiens: GDF ~ and ~~1; BOX, 10~, urban. sad rural; ad Cal ~p~duc~r pace of come {PPCOP), Fable 5-1.0~. Me Todd price of ma ibid a ~ equal on manage Tb~ere ads ~ seeable mend in Me log add ~ hIS1 bias ad 6ig~ni~canl v~ial:ion wound gag land ~r omen hobo lived ~1~n are was at ago 12 =~d Air tb~e sample sags ~ abbe but not fir 1be upon shade Fable 5-8~. Gag and ^Q bad positive emits in ~1 Me sales, Ibexes the ~1 World nose of coma (WPCOP} bag positive exacts only ~ Me USA sample ad PROOF fir lbe 10~ ad urban samples false I'll). ~ ad We ~1 Todd peso of lea (KOREA) had perverse negative cages. . / ~ ~' - - he _ _ _ ~ _ 601veh Me Idly $m~1 ~ population in Kenya, it v~ ~t possible ~ c~ on :he mollify an~y$i$ Ply ~r tbo u~= ~ ~ Naples ~ c~bi~l~n 7~c c=~ci~ts ~ ^~ gored page of Boas (PROOF) in Ha (~.18~) ~c s~i~ni~ntly Bare in ~ ~1 Big co~bl v=-les ~ ~ .~09). )~ els Bib a comas ~ cduc~.io~. ~= ~ a~i^~1 sit Act: CAP in ~=~ WHOOP as ~ ~~ Id in ~m, r~1 ~ = .08 and .~. =$~cti~1y); ~^ ~$ ~ damp. = ~ = .e); Id ICON in sum. t01al ~ = 07). ~c signs of tbc sums ail Blase cages dig: gem Owe Sign Tsar 5~10.
^l~oupb. Mere was a n~>e~!~n4~ ~ log of of second bits in ~1 abbe salts, no sign Bait fund {e band ~ fund (~1c i~.~!~ ~ art t~bn~omiC~ ~v~les<~onl~y Or ~e~u~s~pld hods ~c~- t~ie~s~ ~ ~ss~ign~iO~c~~lv~s~$i~li`~e in Is.: Ever led i~!12)~,~i ~ a ~ ~ ~!~ these ~m~iXed~ve~ Date As its~is~!sd:~dull all tab a s~!~co~lu$io~! oboe Baker En i n~!~ec~odmid~conditions~ E -ash baa side !~i~uenS6d ~^mo~phiC~o~bome~s~s~s!iD !!~0ny8, ALMS duly is Snot su~ris~i~ng~S~r~!~o~bson~s~:~ sever Sin Kenya, !!~d ~ Bean ~ bC~iS Is ~ Hi Die by stubs --as ~ !~ 'Greg S~jot~ic dais Ss~$s!!~!!~no1 ~^cco~lngl~ sc~-es~!~m Metes pl~!one~c~odity em Snot All to!~ act ~!~$i~iOc!~1 effects!> -only Lo ~!!~se~entsi~ i~of~e!~!!~bla~ am!. H6~!~al~P~!~~i~la~!!inCo~!~:S!~hiCb~!0f~ill!!~:~!~0C~o~it~i-C used. had A C Cases all ~Bec~1ing ~^~11!~ echoic ~!~611~i~; inns 6 ~ b~-S!~=d~ Em ~ samples
~3 _~ me' 'C .~- = . get Hi,* ~- 8,.. ~ He, Hey _ ~ ~ ~ ~ at& ~ ~ ~ ~ At ~ ~ A * * *2 *I. *A: Al .O #,t': :~* ~ I' =' = '*= 4` : : :^ .Y~ ~ V`' 4;~ yAA.. _ - Y '')~' : =' ~ :~= . _ -~: ~a~Y: ~ =*i ~66~ ~ ~ ~ *. ~ ~t 4;~ A * ..* ~ ~ +: X Y Y Y ^*: y v*. 4 :*8 ~. _ ~ ~ * Y Y 2- ~ v * S :* .* :,,~ ~tY #~: - : ~ ei) ~ ~V ~ ~ $' A: ~ ~ * * * V .* :*Y y: y (Y-~3 =d dG:~)Yu*t ~; =CYt 3eY;~O A _dy 4t - * {$~: A~ ,^~: ~: P~ Y~ ~* ~5 Y~ ·_~ ~' ~: ~: 4~ MY~ ~y <3' Yee. .~: ~: ~Y ~ . 4i~ ~Y ~ '= ~Y~4 := := Y~ :~e ; - ,= _= ~: ~: 8¢ : R := :p~ ~: #* ~: _~ _ . .~'~. ~-_ x - ~ ~: v := .~* (:~: ~x ,<~.f. -~: ~y w^ v`= :<~ayA := = : ~ ~ ~: :~: ~ ~ ~v: ~: =: ~ ~ :~$ ~: ~ A A * o ~ · ~ y y y ~: ~x :A* y ~v ~ :~ v - * .:~ t >~:> ~*. :O 6~0 5~' ty^~; $4~3,~0 ~* ·~ ~: ~ eY=, .~.' O ~_ ~_ .... ........... := i~= :~` V - Y * X~ :4 - A *_~: 4~* *~' ; ~: ~ =. '= `* : :^Y- ~V~ ~ '~. ~* `~ - x ,~,y,A *ty~ ~ ,A' ~: ~-~F~---~-----; ~ : #~- =' ~t ~ - *- <:} ',, A ^4 v. v ~ ~ X ~ X ~* A 4 4 V x ~Y0y~0 50~* u~*) ~; ~V~,;''*~0 V_Y: ¢*,A~ .~ ~,' \_~. ~X~P :~) X,446* yA~ ~ ~3
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~:~ /o 6~C~76~V3U8~7~ TABLE 5~10~ Bisects ofEconom~ic Vari~bleson h4~dage, Kenya 0~ EXQ ~ Tote u Ru~ Tote USA ~1 Toga ~u~n USA Its ~ ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ E ~!~: ~003~!~0~< _#04 ova ! O~.~s4~!~30.e ~-014~ go. E<O,0~ .. ~ IS :::. ~ : : - :::: S , - :: ~ 1 ~ ~ ~!~ ~ ~ ~::~ ~1.~ I: ~ ~ S 1~.1~7* ~0,3s2~ ~ 0~30 ~:~ 0.33 ~ -23~!: ~.~ ~ ~.~ I ~ 2~ Emit ~!~- ~ -049'~-i~7~-0~84~) -O.p4s~0~47~037~0~27 -0~ {33 S~s~of ~!~ so ~. ~ ~ ~ ! ~ ~ ME id i ~ ~ i: ! . . . . : ::: : . . :E : ::: ~s#~vilu~s)S ~: ~all YE ~ ~ SO ~ ~ ~ ~ C^~\nti A: YE :SS~E ~ # ~Y ~ ~ 7 ~ Age 03 ~.~ ?~ 26 As .30 SO Sum of ~E Loci ~ ~<~ ~ i ~3 .23 ~.~30 ~En Pa ~ .~< :.03 .~01 ~ .68 ~ . ~1 S Hi. NOT: ~ /~ Of ~> ~ Byte ~ Id:. AMP, ~al! gases domestic pair: ~ I. ~1~ ~1~; # am: ~odd~pdc~6f cd-, S1~9~23~1~987~!~ss~A, :~1 mad ~ HE ~1~a,~:~:~19623~19~87~ IF, : p=~2c paw of So~. 1~2~1987. ~ ~ ~ i~dip-!s a >svelte of < .10} I'm mews ~ Ivy of < .0i. TABLE i~11 Ef~cts~fEc~onomic V~d~bleson Firs~tBi~ soya . . ID ExQ asks To . , . ^~ ~n gruel ~1. ~ F~ mole (~= ^# As . .~° 1 1 aim ~ ~ ~!~ In ~ 0 i~ As ~ ant mats )^~iluc$/ Idiots ^. ~ S ~ :S:S~:: ~:E~. S::~ :: < ~ ~ ~ ~!~ ~ ~ Bash p~.20 2.3'! =009~ 0.1~8~ 0.-30 0!3 ~!26~ 0!? -035 . -0~.26 <0.6~ -0~.16 0.~0.31 Q.= ~o.o) 0.36 ~017 0~.47 Q37 0.73 o~x3~S -p.41 0.34 .po3~.p2~ .~< .oo~.12 A** ~11 38 . ~ At, .00* ~.1! Sea* 00 ~.02** Coo* go !7 -05~S - 02** ad ~ ~03** : ~ ~S of Tome ~4 yea ~ pond. COP. mall was domains It ~t ~11a, 1 1~ ~ ~ _ ~ 1~ ~ ~ #~ ~1~; gal Todd ~c of c>~. 1962-1987: aim, ~1 ~oYld pram of ea. 1962~198~7; IF, =~1 pawn pact of come. 1952~19~87. ~ * Ida a p-v~ of < .1Q: ** maw ~ Value of < .~0i.
::. ~ :~l U~= R: ~! ~= ~)0 ~t 0~= ~ 0~l SKI; 6;0 ~ ~ ~ ~0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ,4 it. ~ ~ ~ A 02 ~4 TV ~ ~ X 02 ~ A03~ ~~: ~* ~ ~ A 35 ~ ~~ ~ ~INK i. ~0~ 0: I. ~NIX )~ ~V: ~ ~ ~ 05~ - 4 ~j+~40^ ~. ~ ~ K09 I. ~ *=0. ~ ~K.~ ~ ~ ~+ ~ ~NIX 07 ~- ~0~ ~i.~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~K'$ ~ ~K) ~) ~3 K ~ ~+~3 · ~2 X50 +~8 ~.~: T~ ~&X.) Ru.~.t Tom) U~:~n Rum! ·. : ~lX>} U ~'~! ~'~3~K04~06~. ~ ~K00 ~x~20 ~ Axe~000~03 ~ OK ~.~:~ +~9BOX ~ ~ ~ I. X ~OX - 0 . j*~ Kit ~i. Next ~0~)0^ ~) ~0.05 OK ~ ~K.~=0~: ~ ~ 'K ~ ~0~ 3.~^ ~ ~K:~5 ~ ~ ~ ~-XMX~ ~ ~.0 ~ .00~. 2:X,~ X 6908*~ ~~~4 ·~0 K26~~·~6 · ~^ ~' K 2 - X · ~K ~ ~ ~Kit: X~K X . :.'..
~ RE~ ~ If TABLE i- 12 Ef~cls of goon Vari~bl~e~s on Second Bilges, Kenya GDP I ~ ~ ~ ~ ss as ~ .~ C^-icn~ . . Oy {~ : /.79~S ~.68~!~!~S ~.~S2* ~20 ~,9~2~Ss~s:~~lo ~s:~.sQ,~Z7 !~0. ~S0,~28 1 ~ 0,4~8 ~ ~ I! 0.25 ~ s ~ ~ 0.30 ~ 0.05 !~ ~ ~!~ my, ~ 3 ~ ~ 0.08 /~.= ~S~O<iO ~ visit* 2 ~ ~ ! 0.37 ~ ~ 0.31! !s ~!~ 0.3.8 ~ 007 ~ ~0~,33 : ~ 0,Osls sags IS 0!. ~!!~lS.~29~*~SS ~ !~!~0~4 Same of c=~$ ~ ~0+oiss~s~.12~! O~.06 ~.08 !~!!~7l ~!~.01 ~S~0!.12 ~1~.~75 ~,!~14 t$ Vale ~ Zen ~! ~.~.4 ~.93 ~.16 :~ ! .S1 ! ,22 ~! .9~8 ~.33 S!:~ ,* !~ ~.26 Sea of C^~Cicn is = ~! .73 .83 .75 ~ i .61 . 10 .97 ~.70 as .!03 ~ ~ .68 art ~ . ~.~ ~, ~$ ~m~sdc pact par capi=, 1962~19S7; I, ease ~an~m idea, 1962~19~87; ad, - ~ Ida. 1~19~87;~ eCOF, ~1 World age of cot, 1962~19~67; W~^, =~ Bald pack 1~1~; ~ ~ ~ ^ 1~1 ~ ~ id a Value ~ < .10; *a Is ~ ~ of < a.
CO~=r ~37 # IDA MOP . ~ Hillel ~1 ~R~1 ~^ U~= Burg D~.l~l! ~.1 ~o.i4 os lo ~Delia ~.oi IT ~002 .03 007 got 10 0S.06 ~.~3 ~.~S ~ 0.12 ~. . IS 0 03 0.12~. ~.14 0.19/.19 0.02 0.030.01 ENS 690:~ . . .._, .~24 ~sss ~613~ Is .?4,~6 9 . .63AS ~AS~7 .74 .~.85 ...s
~~ ~~ ~ S~~:~ s i:; 16 I987, Sigma ~ 4 Gay Ha! Vita ~ $3~70 (~d Blanks 198) s Ag~cultd~ Cited ~~ idol Percent of GOF ~ Hindus (including oiler eX_{i~) far 4~3 al. ~o-sthi~s Of the El<- Farce ads in i~cull0) in ALSO Nigeria aims aims v~/iv bf mod caps. ad it earths coca. palm ~e~ls,~an~d =~r ~ ~ ~! ~ ^ ~- export meal, discounting ~r about 95 perfect ~ m~th1 extra easings i~n ate I98~0s The Algerian economy has Shoed con~s~lde~bly over Me past Awe decades Due tb<~l)6Oiss<~s~E~i~ged:a ex~(e~ced ~sT9# ends al 1i~gi, ntg4-s tires, ~s~ ~f c~i~ are 5~8) . , ~ it. . . . ~# 1~^ p~ce~l~crease~, ~'ge~rl<~sseconom~y orgy togas ~ age guickly tban~i!1 bad ~~ 1~. of to Nigerian cil~i~ndu~sby were likely faction in ibis ~:owtb. Tbe 1973 spurge iB oil prices Farber increased gob ~ gas. ^ ~ ~^ Ids nspidl~y,~nd mob oftbei.nc%ease ac~crue~d~l0~1he slag in tbeTbnn of~overo- n~en1re~venues. pove~nm~0~1 revenues from oil acco~n~d Or 65 peaces of boom lax ~evenues~ln 1978, and 81 percent in ~19!8~0 (Ge~rs~o<~itz ~d~Paxson, 1~9907. Tbe~\i~eb~n movies m~e~n1re~soonded go tb~iscre~asein~revo~nue~s by increas _ 1~so:~ud>~-b~fli~mei between 197~S Had 1974s(Kirk~0 gene Adam met 14!813. Gorges med~lexpendi:lpres~mse from [sstb~n 70 pe~ot~t~of G DP iS 1970~1s97~7 to 3i En! fig 197~4~1977. ticks public in#~s~nen~, concenDa~d in urban areas. coil se~rvicesi~pcr6ased is wel1,so~thal~pim~ry soboolsen~ollmeblrose from 36 percent fib ~I96010 62 percen~li~n 1975~dd B~nk,1~981~. Expenditures Gael more q~icklytb~.did~vonges,~ndibe Soviet me~1experi~e~nced de6- c~itstb~duiboutibelal~rb~foftbe 197~0s<Ki~k-sG Cane and Rim mart 1981~. ~ tb the risen oil price$in 197S,ecso~on~1; ~C1i~lty in Nigeria shined sUsrpIy away Mom agd~cull~. Expo~6 of cocoa in 1980 were less tan half of 1965 q~n~1i~es, and exports of palm kernels and rubber declaimed e~en~more (\Vbil!d Bank, 19~89~b). Production of many food coopts also de c~linod. Cave able boom in oil prices spa ~ d gTo~1b in solve sections of the economy. C0~.$1rJO1i~0n, which bad acco~un~d~for 6.4 percent of Ni~e dan G Dan 1970.clim~b~d to it 3~pe~ce~n1 by~1975. aide do~d~movemenls~in oil paresis 1be ~1980s produced a $~bsFp decli~nein per capila O D ~ and by~198S G DP per capita was only 66~pe!=ent 1~. sexpot avenues (as well as go~vern~e~n1 revenues) fall sba~ply. The govcrnm~nt bong wed boavil~y from foreign sources, and 101
car _~ exams! adds ash a godson ~ COP rose Ham 5 pegged agent in ~19~7 ~ World Bag, 1989b). In 19~86, We Exigent ~govse=~n = a l~i~ization ~policy, ~bicb ~EsoUghl~to ^< ex~cb~ge raise. educe Idea ~=sci~clions~ ends ~gulabons,~=d grave pie cables mainlined by gover~en1 Merlin Was. so mocks on out during idle ape Rood. Some evidence suggests Taft ~id~tb in Ace 19~80 to 111 ~ B en -# ~e -~es bed sum eat ones ~o living sl~d~s~of~ ~o ~mai~otily~of me Nizeh~= Rio. . . . . . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ , ^l~oug~E~~e~e aces ~se, =~=d~E~i~^~ct~ -an wooers glad ~ bes~e~51$~,~0~ing~ Sad Luck (1983). Ho~CVOP dog palms Me fill.. dint 10 Dig ~ O~= c~o~clEu~sio~s~ on chafes in Be Nigerian ~ E aim n~come ~ di~s1db~1i-~ See Been E~ 1~ 8~3~· ~ Se~v~c~rs if least Some off ~m~=se~l~its~S~o~e~E~ oral E~ooom~ss~spill~ed shover to Spoof ash me!tsso! ~,opu!!t!l~o,<~ ~First{~!~c~n~ve~men1!~eSpe~d~itu~ss on educaclon, ~$~Usi~i~socl~!!~setv~jes~s~s~i~stie~=e~d~bet~edn 1~972~ ad 1980 Bald Balk, ~1~9S89~. S<c~ud~.~E~~il~ ~p~duce~r~ pace ~ ~, ~ cocoa increased sly Pow. 1980 a~s~ch~n)~tb~ishp~ld~!~bavc ~bene~d~!~l~ bou.$cholds. Sever pieces of e~vide~~e ~S~g0S~1 at the economic d~cl~ineE 1980s ached a bard cast section of the! ~i~ed~ population. Past. some evidence ~d~c~1es am go!< bOu~se>SOlds gem densely acted in me Orsl half of the ~19~8~0s. ~duccr Aria ~ chow Baa led d~stici11y ~- t~e~e~l9~0 Easd 19~85~, ~a cb~gb~ tab implies 8 ~ductiOD~E aims living sandals sumac ~^ housebold~s~.~ ~ H~o~ev~< *eSSt prices mere then increased ~r 1~S, =~pa~of~iG~a'~s ~s~uclu~ a~d~s~1me~1~im.~ gtic~u~l!tur~eXp~s node I ~:0 tab easy 1~98~0s, ~alibou~b~ fit ma do ill 19# ~ ~ a. ^ , . Second, cut gov~e~mme~1 e-~3i!lu=~ ~nesul~sdin deceases Brian Deepen di~E~for~bo~be~!tb~and~o~br~soci~lservi~ces~.~ IF exAn~pld~in 1987~.~re~ p~blic~be~ib~eXpendil~re~per.p~rson~ ~as~b~f~E~bali~l~b~ad~beepsin 198EO (~`Vod~d~Babk,~198~9b). ~igoda~as~o~e~of~1be~ ~ co~n~ie~sin~sub-Sibo~n ~fi~lo~ She ~ decrease in to perc~nl~e spoof l~ye~>old Wild immure nized Minsk ~ ~ s E(d~ipbtberi~, ~ ~pe-~ss~i~$~,~ ~.s Ills, Polio.. and medleys h ~1~981 aid 19~8~6~19~S7 (~d B~adk<E~l~b). His pro ~ma liOO, bovev~e~on Imbiber be~alib~servi~c~es~sd ~ Mod gone! ill Median 0{ ~ In. Tb~i~d,tbe r~cession~i~n the 19~80~s~sb1~led in increases in open unem- ploym~nl~rates~i!n urban ~reas,e~spesc~l~ly among younge~and mo~seducaled workers~<see \\ndSmoo~le.199I). get gages also f~llforbolb ~u~raland . . urban clv~lise~rvanls. l!n By slaloms. he ~i~es~1i~ale He rel~ions~bi~p Street ~demogr~b~ic as ~ ~ ~~ a. #~- ~ can leads oflrade and export quantum index, Me world pace of Claude petro^ lcumn,and Gould and~p~oducerp~r~icesfo~cocoa. hiovementsinlho price of
~~C ~-= ~ S#~ ~ (at also Ids Me eggs ~of! Odessa i) hoed cdssed~ above ~ ib~d~ic~e!s By bee ~!Of~!~1be Coma i; ~1 Yes ~ also likely. . . . . ~. ~ ~ i, . ~ n a! Pi !~'pd~c~e~s ends ~ He Owe reacts .~ on xur~!~ !!~bo~u~seLoics~! ~ Amid Age Need firm . . ^: . . .. ., . ~ Increases anal cove Steppes, ala Be ~ metes. Amp as 1~ I: ~' ~ =u 1~ agog Glenn ~!01 '~!!13!~!~ mews. IS' else ~# a prices~S~i~n~1~980s~S~as~s~!so ~seve~!,~S~e~0xpec~t~sm~6nd!!1~ demonic e!~ct$ ad Iberia ~~ ~b Did fir ~stcon-~ ~!~/S~S~ inns ~ coj~es.~ ! ! ~ ~ . .. . . ~ lt~ a! Old be Lad !~ bow~!~!~!!~ ~!~Se~!~!~s!!l sushi arid ~l.~s, ~e~s~sbr~ucer Deco for cocoa Bust ~d~^matic~ally~!~st~d all Up ~01 cue as in chid ~rlal~i~<y!~!~t~eed ~ He ! Ida ~1~970SS ~1~90~ 'ago! 200!!! pi ad ~1!1b ~(199~3~)~~o~s~ Ocean ~ ~ Sough an~Iysts Sag s~6geit,~[owev<~s~!~i~l~<y decline Acts Noun in songs ~ of Nighed (Cild~el~1 et~.,~ 1992), bib amp ~ 1 970 ~16~! hi 198~9~!, !!3S~ add S~!36~ It emit! Bud ~sss~d ~!!t~nd~!~s~(sbe Tin betas and horse earls on anal babied My. A11 but PPCsOC, AXON. and the Boded price ~ crude =~t~~um~! (WFo1~) Be ells on I celled mo~li~ly.~l~° Bade i-S suggests Ad: tag Beast abode :~n c~b~ild Balkily ~~ ~ 197i, so Cat these results ~ ~1 n~~ss~ds~lv i~~onssi:~: Its Be Ladings of ~111 (1993). As goad earlier our: Bus in figs ~ Is on Still: y~^~:y~ -widow Bar that ~ e~i~li~g hands. 1~0 blast [~0 bang native c~ in sad ~ control vales ~ ~ ~ tab metals . .
~r ~1 children, only ~ ~ SPOIL bevy significant eats Yachts ~ gear in USA ~= in ~~ri1 angst bull Be Slave exacts of He gonad pager Ed leas of The ~r these also samples cannot as gait as Be Ibex ~bov<os ~ expend. Ha.- ~ ~ ~ ~ 1~61 ~3~) ~le~5215~s~s~at ~ of -~econ~omisc~ Sables (GiDF Each HAVOC!, ~an~d~!~PPCOC)~!b~s coefficients groups and !~in sums bad sick po$~i~li!ve~e~cts ~ minion Me cq~c~ionts age em Of =~ (at) gem also ~ ~1~ ~ ~ mad ~= cam ileum He menu, gnu me sums of He cements ~ Regive tar Age tom ad ~1 sables. cont~ ~ odor e~~c~1ions~l: ^libo~b He sig:n~i~canl~l~y direly ~ m~ze~o as a group. are reluctant ~ emphasize the sign. size, and significance of i~di~vidua1 c~oefici~ents.ltis now Bobby ~ Age bi<~ges1 Epstein tbe~u~tban s ~ pie tend to occ~u~rin He cun~ntpe~dod, ~bee~stbey occur with ~ one~-yearlag in He Urals ~ pie. This pats consist Aim the exact ofeco!Dom~lc sbockstikinglongerlo work tb~rog~btbo~ecsonomy go rurilare~s. Tbelog odds of [rstbi~b.~so d~clined:in urban ~igeria~b~utincreased Sian ~ al ~ as (Jumble 5~13 and Figures 5-9 and 5^103.13 Once~4 ~ n, He ~onoml~ v~ribbles ~ene~dl~v bad enacts in sum (oos~ilive) and as a grout ~ _ . _ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ^ (T\b~ 5~16~.14: Only ~ ~e~ sample did ~ lotus of1~t have no exact ~- wee ~ Nat Ends over imp ]~ ~e log odds of second Por the totil and rum samples, a11 the eco nomic v~dib~s butibe quality ofexpo~S and the p~oducerprice otcsocoa had positive e~1se~itherasa group aria sum CI~b~ ilk. For Ace urban s epoxy Y~PC~OC and EMIL bad posili~veefic~. Fb: ~lfb~esampl-e~s, tab e S car of PPCOC mere perversely naive. Al~togetber ~en, Ni.gede b~assus~Esed~a beavierimpac1 ~ m.econ~omic reverses on allfour democ~rabbic outcomes tan bus any over county in )4o~eove~ the effects acre genersll~y Clan the bypotbc~sized 1 babes the education Mongol is a~ to ~c moan ~r Utah Comer, We mad i$ ago loader sign~cantl~y ~1 ~ =~ ~ = .63). abed We cog Id ~ ~c ~ ~1 as, ~ gad gnomes Tidy ~ ~ ~ .~ ~ Ha). . ^ ~ taco sums ~ ~ s~ni~=t~ di~nt dam zag lo morals i~cl~di~; edition = ~ ~ ~ = i7~ :m~el~s Aria ~on. ~ mad far ~ ~ saps ads i~S~i@~i.~1 ~ = .16) r Me ~1 ape. $i~i^=dy positive ~ = .- 146 ~ ~ $~p~1c, in els flab ~ucati~on, Be sum of ~c C^Sc~1$ on DIP are no: stgniSc~-tly at tam =~ ~ ~ 32), ad ~ sum of ~c cc ~ ~~ $i~i~1) ~~C ~ = .~).
Ec^~ ~S ~ S:~:~^ directions. Tbe negative enacts otpttrole~m pri~ce~s~on mad ~nd~o~fibe producer pice~of~coco~ . -~secos~d~bidb~s~puzzling, Ha Is log odds seat . A. sol ~>C$S onions marriages and bias oaf ~etre~nds.~dobbls tbe~i~eii~D}fS>had~sobie~ es~Ll~bul~tbe ~of~al:lebs~t at dco~omi~of~ijeri~i~ss~m~ore~S an~d~tbe~econo~nics~$ho~ks~thal /~se~diftr6~hces!~a~e~n~po _ 1faL10rs em ~ E : ~ .: ~ ~ : : :. IS An, : . : . : :: : : S: .: SS I:: ': : I: :~S: :' S ~tbe gorge st~is-ticil~si~ni5~ n~nya~, # Impede 1!y ~ mlna~d~by!~o~E Es~s~s~g~e~e~\v6~b<~lie<-e~tb~ l~ts~of~our~ilys; tab ..
I: .= ~ : * ~ :. ~ X Y O YE A O :~. :~ ~ :~: ~ ~ SILO ~.~:1 u~; S=';~ ~..~' :' ...:...:.:.:.'.:.:.'.: We ., =. ~::.:. :.:: '.::: ::= ~ SEX m-~ ^. , # ~ ,* - ~,~ - 4~ gig: t ~*# X ~ hi: 's _ :: : :- ':.:. ~ ~ it' ~"~.~ . ~ ~"~ ~'~.~'' ,e>~ '= ~ ::: it' ~ '~'fXS :~:~'~ Wig 'ail it: ~ it:::::::: ~0 ~ We 'I ' ~":~ Gee .~ ~:^ . :.':' "' ~ ' ~ ~ ~ ' ' i" '' :''.::: .. hi.:: :~ it: i':: . ..,: :.:.:: :'::.' :: :.:. :' : :,: :~: ::::::: :.:.:.:: : :.: :~ ~ :: ~ .... ' i' :.,'' ~ we'd :. : i: ~'~. __~,W.= :: ~:.': A: X:. ~: :,:: A. it: :.: # x.~ ~. ~,,. ~ :' . ~': ~ :_ Hi: ~ ~ 7' ~''~31 .'~ 8'~. ~ : :::::: ' : ~:~ '0 :~1 ~ Aid: :~; I: :: : ~ ~1 ~:; ~$~; ;~0 BIB ~00 ' .. : W:~ OC ~0 ~ ~ 4~: ~ - : ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ iP A A., ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ * ~ §: :. ~it :t ':t ~:~` :: i: USA :~ ~d d=~u't u; Sut{~0 ~sppo ~01 U; '=~:0 ~ he's ~ = :~' NEW Jim 0~ $ '=: = ~ As' ~ a.* Win , in: :~: .40 Jim At' ~ #a: = . ~ Wig ~ = 'a I: : ~: : id, 47 : . ~ ~X ~ ~=: At: : - ~ Of: 'A ~Ah : ~ 9~* ~ #A ~3 '= ~ ~To '= :f ~ %~} #< ~,~,d,f,: : :~: = - : ~
I: * - id: : ~ ~= : =~ ~ - ~ - q~''~ ~ - Aid: : =~ ,.~: : :- : :0 Ink --dc7\ l - 14,~ Ala: :` Ala: : __4= ~ 'R'- ''''a''' 'X ~ ·. X ~OFF ~ Ad. : ::e _ ,, .~ ~. ~` ~ alp. i, . . .. . . ~ ~ := ~ ~ ,. ~:: Hi: Hi: :~: . '~o 5~1 ~; .~ _Pg ~ . hi ~ ~ A ~= ~= )~ ~; 6~ ~ 3:9 ~ ~0 ma: ~ Ala' : ~ : : ~:~ . , ~:~^ '::43 'I ~ ~ tbt ~:43: :: :. = ~::~ : : ~:':: } :m ` Ad: :s~ - - : - : ~:~: :¢ ~:4 ~ it: ~:6 - :: - ~ : ~ £.. Ad'= ~ - *I. As* us id: ~ ::: ~ ~ - ~ W4D : ha: id: :7: }: *id: :O I: 'all =: :~: `P .*: =: ,,$F, hi: = 8 a: ~ ~ ~ ~ y y ~ ly y y ~ ~ :, sO~ ~:1 u:~5 =~; 1~ :<' - : ~6: :~ = = :? := = * ~ * - y* * * it hi: ha: Ha* I* Ha: if: .:~* a* if: at: :: ye* If' B(~ a)= '` ~ : ail<' Be: if: ~*: :4'~: Aft: ha: id: at' He' ye ?~. Yin id: · 4,-,<: .,d,.,': at: .:~* at: . =: id: · 40* ?. ~ hi: ~ Ha: Y Ye +_` at' He' ~*: hi: =: ?~ ~ Yap id: $= y ~ =. - : ~ :~: = ha ?= ~ =: () £)
: ~ :~ - ; ~ : I-= : 4~=c: Ad= A: ':::~ my: ~: ;~: ~ I: ~r~ I: gall - ~ :. `= :^ TO ~ ~ = ~ At. ~,~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ quip ~ ,~ ~ A: A '+ ~ ~ A 4 i. 'X :~: it: it: ~t: my. $?;> ' " a': ~= At' ha_-C,( " X-~ 2:3~ b ~` ~ *: i: ,. :. : ~ :: ~ . ' ::` Hi: ' ':~: : ~:~: ~= If'' ~= := ~ : ' :: =.'' : ' . = _'= ~ ~ ~ P' & ~ ~ ~ gel ~ 4~ 3~ 4. ~ Y Y A 4 ~ ~ :. hi. X ~ y ~ ~ 6~ =:~:e '~O ~ :~ it: ~ ~ ~ ':= <. ~ :4 ,, ~ 4 ~ *a ~ ~ ~ =: a: :§ hi: ~ 6: =:d d'=~:~ uT sUtI~.~O : Q: ~:'~' :' : :~_:: :~ Its : - 3: :~ :~ act Am :? ha: := : =::: :: K :~* * - : ~ be:. 4,3 i' ad; as: X~ ,X~X ,X~ i: d' t ~ ·:00*~ : : - it: :~: ~ :. i: ~ I. :-: a= :~ ::= = 43$: Yes m: ::~: ~ gig' : ~ X~3 ~·~E `£} ~ ,;,_ Ad= :% : :~ ~ ~ ARC =. .~ ~*: X :t,,,l} : ~e:: c~ X;>, >a,,, . :: :` 453 At: ~ 3' ~*: Id': :°ib*~: Sea, to X~ :'* ·~$ : ~ =~ ': ~ '<> ': ~ ~:~'~ i: ~ I'd - ::. 2= He: ?` : OTT' :~: t$ ~= ~ ~ X~ -~¢ ,= ~ Ha: ~ '~ id X ~ A: X Y ~ Y ~ 4 ~ ~ ~X ~+: X .~ Ad_- =~ t3-c= a:: O'~ _ _~ Em_ Em: A: .: : ~ - ~ r~$ = = i .*,~: day O x,X (~ X,X, I: :: I'll i:: ~ i: :: ' ~ A: - i:: ~ ~X by 'a- ::~ * *as A: At: ~ .~. ~ . ~ ~ :3~ ~4.* ~ :? Fat ~ x~ ~- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Y i ~ ~ 4 · ~ ~ ~ 0 §~ .4Y sppO 60X, ~; s~O ~,,X,;t .:~ := I'd: : - ' ~.2 X'O :~ *ah: . ~ X~,X =:: ~ :~: ~,~ X : 'I,' X4. ~ At: ho: ha: .2 )~ rem C) -t ~e~ ~x~
~-13 ~ ~~~C *it ~ S~s~ ~ E^C1~S of Time Person Demog~bic Osu$comes, Niger Child colt APE ~# . .. . E: ^ Tread ~ ~-03 ED o'er ~ ~ ~ ~-~ ~3 03 ~ 01 #~ # ~I* ~* I* ~ ~I* ~/ v~ ~I** ~* ~;~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ DISH e i** IS*:* ~ ~ · · ~ ~ ~ TO a Am ~ ~^ of Hand .~* 05* ~ ~.~01 ** ~ ~. ~!~ I** .* Ct~<ldren: ~8 123 ~ . 7.$~ ~6~494 s ~:7~30~ss ~ Is at 3~24 5306 mats Dysan, p~ ~ Bald is controlled. Id of- yes fig 99. !~ ~ =4~ g~b~b Keynes, 4~ ~ ~o#~ is~co/^l~!: ala Stands- =~lysis. ~o of Imp -~ ~# sing ~1 bag am created. a of =~y$i$ is 19~1989. ~ S! indicts i)~s~of~.lO; ** means <~u~ of ~ ~.03. - saw TABLE 5~14 -^-- E ~ Sat ,, as #~ll~cls ^~bco~mic Vocables ons;!~Cb~lld~b~i~, Nigeria a. Ago E ~ sags ~ ~Q ~ ~1 ~ R~ ~ e . . . ::. L~ ~ T-1 [~= Ru~ Cams ~183 0 ~ ~FOR TO ~.34 s 0.43 /.12~ s :E ME ::~, }~::~1: ::S~' ~: :: Sir, 1~4 ~ ~= ~ 14 . ~. s s .. ~ ~1 ~ ~ /.11 ~q 15 /.12 ~0.14 /.OS 0.~* 0~.12 0.23 S0.13 2 ~.29~.i: ~.~39 -.21** ~.19 a** -~13! ~. ~.~2 sit) ~ 'A ~ ~ c ~.31 ~.70 ~-.~19 ~ ~32~!~ss ~~ ~.15 ~ 26 ~.13 ^~ ~-V~6S ~Edge e:::: ~ ~ :~ ~BE a : ' E:E::E:: SE ~:SS:::. :: : S . :E: ~^Scie~s ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ air: WE. ~, .I5 sari ~ ~ . ~.32 :E ~!~31 1 , ~·S .~ .. : , :. . : : Ash )~ ~ ~ ~! ~ ' ~ , :s S::~ ~ . ... ... alas to ~ ~ ~ ~ .03 .05 :.66 . ~. 10 .7 1 ~. ~.02 :~ EMS: {> ~ chid Ed year ~ con~~l~lcd. Gag, #1 toss ~c ~p~duc1 per Cupid. 1970* I)88:; ~, c<~g Mu index, 197~1~:8~; 0, ant of Adds into, 1970-1988; WC, =~1 ^ pace of aim. 1970~9~; Em. ~ World pat of coda old. 1970-~1987; ecoc 1~1~. * indicates a ~-v~g of < IO; *a mats ~ Ovate of ~ .03.
:~;:~= t :~) ~: ~= i: Rum) ~} ~ i: C ~: :: AWN ~ :::: . ~ ::: I= 'I ~ 'A : ~* a mud} : ~ ~ ~A ~ .~ ': 0'! 0:~$ ~ 20'~ i' ~ ma, ~'3~.~ ~-~8 ':~6 5 ~677 ~2~: 3~3 ~-~.C :: ~ i: I. 'Rump. . ~ ~. ~ ~ it, WP~ ~70~) and. ~.~K=Ki ~= i:.:. K ~ ~ ~ ~ K0) ICY. ~ ~It's ~~ ~ ~-:~8 - ~ K 07 ~.~4 ~ * ~ ~0.26 ~ K .: ~Y ~3 K05 0 ~0.~0 ~009 ~X>0 a'. i. ~*~3 ELK ~ ~ :0 ') ~ 'I.: ' c'+~.4 ~:.~4 OX ~ ~ ~0 ~ YAK~428 ~# ~ ~Y25 ~. i. ~0 ~-: ~ 4' ~i'0~ i: ~ :~0~ ~ ~~~4 ^~2K ~ ~'I'd OK54 ::) K - 6 +~9 K95 ~ ~* ~ ~O ~ ~K45 Yogi *= By,
~ ~~S ~ art 3~ IBM i-13 E~cls of Economic Vies on ~e, aria ~ Is Turbo ^~1~ ~1!!~ ~ ~ ~= ~!~ ~ lag 0 0.50~!~ 0.96** 0.23 0.23*{ 0.41~* O>s!l~O 0~.1S*~?S: 0.23~* ~0 1 0~,37 SWISS ~.13 09* 0 ~.13 0.= 0.3S*S*!~ 0~16 ~ :0~143~ 2 /.63 ~.30 ~.71** 0.~01 0.05 0.03 ~.47* ~.3~8** ** 'ad - ~. . ~:lClO~ ills) C~^icol$ ~ ~ v Sum of ~ . Ices 0~.= 0,5 1 ~= 0 33 I* ~ ~ O+33 ~.01 0 03 0.~01 .~* . ~.72 .92 it: at of Coma ad yea ~ consult. APE =~ Moss data p^UC1!~[ campy, 1~1~;~ ~ 1~1~ #~ 1~1 Cal ~ Dice of agog. 19~*1987; eons. ~1 Dodd price of ~ 1, 10~19~87; PPC~. real ~= paw of croak 19~1988+ . : ~ * indicts ~ ~v~o of < .10; *a means ~ Revalue of < .05~. TILE 5-~16 Earn of Economic Vales on !n^~l~ Bias, Nigeda GoD Moth ~= ~1 ~ ~ ~1 TO C~= R~ Caleb ~is ~ ~ Is i is ~! ! ~ ~ ~s ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~!~ S ~! ! by ~as ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ so 06 ~ I: ~ .48~.41 0. ~ ~0.22 ~!. ~0.~1~i** 0~.~20 ~ lo 10.8$*~ /.Oi1.41**~ 0~.= 0.~02 0.01 0.26** 0~.22 0.27** 2 ~ s~40~ ~ 0.31/.81*~ 0~13 03~10 Owl a* /!.1~1 /323~*~ ^ ^ OI C^~C~$ 0~42 0.3 0, 1 8 0~*= 0~35 0!.08 0.22 0~.3 1 0.1 5 ~1S Vats) ~s . ?1 ~ }^ ....~.. it,. ~ _ I* ~ ~I* I* , ~I* I* I* Sum of Is ins ~ ~,* ~,*~ - .~** .~** 1 8 ~* I* COT=: ago of ~~.~ an-d yea ~ ~~ll~cd. GDP. =1 gross Smelts p~d~uct ~r couple. 1~1~; I, ~ I, 1~1~: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~1~; Cal goad pea of agog. 19~1987: ~IL, real world splice of cage gloam., 19~-198~7: ecoc. =~1 producer prig of chow, 1964~1988. . . ~ * indic~$ a p~vil.ue of < .10: ** mans a Vet of < .03.
^~ beam ecoc wag Pea ~1 ~n ^~1 Tam ~R ~S ~ aft! ~ ~R 419** 0. ~.2~S** o.e 0.23** 0~2 ~!, ~-~,03 ~,08 0. ~0.12 0.37** 0 ~2~1** o. ~o Am* ** ~ :0.18 ~0.~*~ ~-03 0 O. ~. ~!.43** ** ~46* ~0.2~2 ~0.36~+ 0 14 at> ~ -~ . ~ # am* ~am* ~ am* ~ I+ I* I** ~** .~* 0~1**~ .79 .e ~gas* :~*s ~a** ecoc WP~L T-I use ~Tat Utah gum PPC~ .~*~*0~.13~.47** 0.14* ~0.~19~* pa 1 ~ 23**~.2~1* /~.23 ~12 ~Elm )17 ~13 HIM .12 ~0.02 ~. ~ 2-1 ~.*6 .** 0~.17** 0~41* ~0.02 0 06 0.26 /.10 0.08 0.20 0.02 0~.~0 0.20 ~0 03 ma* am* am* ~ ~ ~* ma* -* I* S: .0~1* ~19 .17 a** .78 .24 .16 .79 e
TABLE 5-17 Begets of Bconom~c Variables on Second Birlbs$ ~igeda Got In ~Q : ~Emit ~= ~ ~1. : ~ : ~ :: ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ Tong IBM ^~1~ S_ of ~ie~$ . . ~ Egg 0 ~ ~ ~.15~ ~ ~.39 ~ ~ ~!0.03 ~ ~Q. ~0 03 ~0~. ~ s~0.27~ of.= 0 24 1 ~.27~: ~ ~ ~0.3~3 ~ ~ ~.67 ~ ~22 ~/ ~22 go.= ~08 ~.13 ~ ~.~ sag 2~ ~ O^S~3~! By 0.27~1 .17 ~ 0 25 go ~19 ME O.~S ~S0.~15 0208 0 ~1~9 Sum of c~~cien~s ~ 0.41~ ~ ~ 0.21 ~0.53 ~ ~ 0.O7 ~000 ~0.~1~sl 0~3~1 0:~17 0.~39 Ins =~~ ~ ~ ^=. ~ ~ 1 7 ~ ,79 ~ ~ 1 ~8 E ~ BEES I** Sit, 1:~9 ash* i zer^ $ ~ .28 .~s~< ~3 1 98 ~= ~ Is go* . al ~ AXIS: Age ~ ~an, item saw aim blob, Id yet ~ con~l~l~. GAP. rein Mass ~~1~1~ I. 1~1~;~ Cam Ian, 19~19SS; W~OC, Gal mild Cadge of coca, 1187; Id, ~ mild bade of made Clew. 19~-19~87; Paw, ~1 ~~ ~c Icon. ~19~1988. ~ ~ indicates ~ Rivals ~ < .10; a* maws ~ Aim of < .05
cant *~ wpcoc upon ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ pat ~U ~Ram ~(- Rat ~p ~R~1 0.14 /.~14 ~Q~.30!<p25** paw'~p.~26* ~53*~ ~5~*< ~3~S! ~.16 0.28 ~!4l*? ~.07 /.~17 ~.01 0.~4" 0.58 ~p.2~2 0,20~} 0.1~0 0.26 ~i.l9* 0.25 0.$4 ~.!l i ~ gii G.07 of 0 1 4 ~ 0. 3 7 0 33 0. 3~) go. 30 ~ ~.42 ~/ 24 1 . ~*~ Amen .03*~* S Has .15 ~* ~ =~* ~ ~ a. ~ ~ ~ ~ OTIS*' go"
E~C ~~ ~ !~ 3~^ SENEGAL ~ . ~ . ~conomlc Pecan Me Mold Bank (1.~8Sb~) Is Sense. as a lo~ehm~^leSinco~ C~O~D- ~< Bose GAP par capita Its $520 in ~19~7. Agdcu~lture a~o~d far 22 preen of o~ul in 19~87, Id infuses sob Ala ~ eat. in 19~80, 61 rcon1 of few loom ~ en Cowed in It. Abed Imp ~11ur~ Id me grounders, It sd~um' mains maria> rice, ~4 lie- S1OC\.. 1~ Ace 16~ 19~80s, Pout 40S~rcent of 10131~cultiv~d and ads in g~u:ndnuls, Climb. ~ loverly exposed ~(Ctn~1 }negligence !~genc~ 1989)~; 01b~e~r major Capons i~nclu~ pbo$pb^~s and Osb. Seneg~i icons cage pe~l~eu:m ~ Capons Bans penmen p-UCl~S. I. 1he~bene~e~Se CO~OOOmY ADS amp St}~C3nt10~1~C D3S~1~uD~C CeCa]CS~, AS Figure 5-1.:1.Sb~O~S. There ~8S$O=0 gro~lb1n Be Cody 19OUS,~O11O~Cd D, a d0C1!i~nC ~ m.~1~68 tinou~b 1~' ~ beef DehOd Of OXDanSiOn in tic! ~1~t ~ ~ - ~ ~ it: S0G83~6 iDabiTi~1y tO~SUS~in gTO~1b bus barn alldbuled.tOse~ver~fac _ . Tbe~:t1S~nfil. R~B{~11 in S0O08~ iS C~DemC1~y V~d~biC~' and d~O'U&b1S are sequent. Welds Of {~Oersovitz.1.~37~. Fu~be~no~e. ~nfilll~slo~ enouLb on avers go plea vent fanned ~ m making aide use of f:~dl~ize~in~nsive Ding ~cn Secon~d.' Ace Ssene~g~e~se economy bled gove~nmenl!reven~ues) is deped~dc~nton export esre~ings ~ m pbospbates. lIo~evse~ pbospbale depo~s- i~ brave bees beavily mined an~d.are~ofinc~eas~i~ngly inf~dorq!~l~ity (rabid Bask.,~1991.~. The pacers ofe~po~s,p~icul.~d~y of groundnut and pbo~pbae~s,are ordc~nninantofincomein Send Both of tbe~se commodide!s expel denc~ed asbo~-lived boom in be 1970stleading 10 ~ bbetpedod.of~ro~fb~s hobos Sen~ga~se~ government stabilizes pnces:or molly ~gnc~l~1~ou~rs~inc~lud~ing groundnut$. These policies age ~ intro boar ~ agains~lsbo~n~ Auctualions ~ World pdces~; breve over we Ion~ru~n, abet ~ ducer paces move vita avoid pdce$. Chou~ndn~u~1f~nersbave expedenced ne~d~y continuous decl~ine~sinibe pace of lbeir outhaul stitch tbe boron in 1974. In bat Allows, He investigate Be ~l~onsb~ip En d~ogr~h~c Booms ~ ~ ~p ~ Few #1^ ~ cam ~ Be Ens of Ode ~ quantity of expose, Be Scold prices of p~sphale~s Ad ~undnuts$ Be produce pace of g~u~dnu~, Ad Canal. ~ per amity ODP serves as ~ general economic in~dicato~ ~bicb should ~1 demog~pb~ outcomes in bath =~ and USA Bead ~ as ~ and oppose quantities also serve as gee economic ind:~.ca10rs. gloves meets in the florid paces ofpbosphates end g~oun!dn~utssbould bare arrange enact on govemmenl revenues Ad ichtbeex~oc~ledto bavel~ppereatcls ^
pa in~1 menage sedge ~$ flies for ~1 livings Asides, ~d~we expect Afar a plateau sly (Hill, 1993~. . #~1~960s dewy 197~0s. dbild~o~i~ bas Vilest }my remains bi~gb~.~6 child ~r 1956; bat rainily ma be ~1~g mono a~ Tops Cohen, 19933. ad 1be age Of ~t is isc=as~i~ng, if FIT slimly (ode ~11~c, ~199~3). Ii~gure 5~11 and Table 5~-I~!~sho~!~the s ~ ng~do~n^~bd~en~d~i~n mo~al ily from 19!70 ~o~!~!1~9!85s~for~tbc toii1 ind~l~s~$~hmplps~ i~14)s.~Fbr~tbe~$~ple off l~bi~ldkbn~,~tb~-u =~nt~a~d~lsg~ed valises oflbL~ quaky ofe~po~s ask ~bo~ps~b~av~e~ef~C1~S~!O~ ~O~1/ Tbc eB>bl~ofibe r-~nl v~l~rls~ ilk fin ~ ~!~ec~d~tiVe ~di~rdc~1~.!~b~t~e~ Same ~ COO~!- C~1S~ figs ~61 Signi~C8n~*l~y~! di i O~0n1~frOm~s~z Rio. ~ss~ls~b~!!!~fbr tit [ugly ~!&S~{P~l~, the sums of be coefic~i!e~nlsSsdn!~!~lbe!!!!le ~ a of~!~1rsde a~d~on!~&inf~ll are s~igni~c~ndy~Ie~tertban zero.~tbali~s~,~S!incne~se~sS!~ib~diese~indid4$ors~are~ ~S~$~ cid~d~itb!~in~c~eases~in in~f~nl:~hd~scb!i~ld~mp~ality<!~pe~e~e!!~e~s~1~lssl! ~- ~~^~ ^~ /~.~.~ as of 1nade~nd~fEe~oild~picb~ ofsgro!addniuts, age gbanJes~!~in ~odd~!~!pd~ce~s~i~lsl~aB>c~t!ioSve~nent reven~Jes~an~d ~, . . . ~T%e~log ofoddssof~!~ni~in S~e~ne~g~ declaimed ~om~!~1960~to~1~98!i for i-11, 5-12> and 5~1S),~b~t~lb6res so $!i~g~i~!a~l~ !V!~d3[O~ to: the trend. Tb:~e ofib~e economic vendibles bad the b~ypotbc~sized positive elf: {eC1$ on msarrioge fortbeto!tilsa~ple~: tbetenns of~de.tbe Todd price of ~roundn~u~ls and the Producer pace of groundouts (see Table i~20S). ~ , ^ tt~o also bad signiEc~n~1 po$i~ve exacts oar theI~og odds fortbe urban sample. Pbr fLe~rura1 sannple, only the eggs of ~ade~bad signiB~can1 eF face. ~bicb mare posi~tivein sum.. Age lag odds of Beset big also fall over time in fee los1~ and urban s~mple~s~bu1~0seint~be rurilone, a$ ~astbe cession ~igeda.l6 treads . ~ i~o Ida Elation I modality and ra.i~l~1 is Foveae ~ ~ ~o~mlc ~- ~S^CtiVC~ but -~m an cspidc~:iologioil one, it is got impl~$iblc~ given 1~ tb~o =bs~i.ssion of some discs, such as Id, is positively associated bid mingle. or, ~ Me tolal Sample. there was ~ s:i~n1Cc~an~ told once induction gas c-- ~= a.
~ ~^ ~63~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ the ~ sample, ~- Aces of c~ India ~ ~8d~=d~ producer p~cbs~ off groundnuts a11 ibid signiOcandy sieve e~ts~i<~ saw (Sled ~2~1~)~.~ For He urban sable, the Hems of the and He coaled price of obo~b:~s also ^ , . ... ^- ^ :~ n~o costive ellects. Ad tads ~} He Gwen Beg 1~. He counts on fine ec~on~lc v~aotes its ~ Duo =~ in sum gem not s~ign~i~y al berg ages as ~si6bi~c~t~ do~=d ~ and in Tab atop odds ~of~econd big r a1~1 Ureter Sales Add s~sign~i~hcapl~ s~v~1ion~ ~1 If Ace Hand Or ~e. teal ad Ace ruble sew {~1!~ 3-~1~8~..*8~ west alit ~le~5~22!~i~dica 101~ beta Tame,. ales Otis Tool awe -~me Food Ida ~bf~ gro~d~uls be ~ /^ ~^ , , For Abe ~utbib~s~pld, a tbe~s~orTd ce~s~of ~!sd9~uts~E~d~pbo~spbitps~ Adds ~t~ip~duc~r ~ price ~i~of~rouiddn~1s 1 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ b ~ ~ ! ~ ~ ~ s i * i ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i b ~ ~ $ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ G ~ P ~ ~ ~ ; ~ ~ ~ ~ d E ~ ~ R ^ 1 N ~ ~ ~ ~ b s d ~ ~ ~ o g ~ 1 ~ i v e ~ ~ ~ e ~ ~ t s ~ , - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s e s ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ r ~d ~r~#in~i~ui~s~ng~ ~ For~es~=l~samplb~, ~q~a=~ty ~of~ex!po~s ilsd~S~bad ~ negative Sect. Bus tea ~le~s~of hades. ~e~sss~~lds Vice of ~* ~P ~. ~ -undnu~ls~, Din b~s~po~i!iV~e Ecus! :~ ^ ~ ^ ^ .~!~s~m Maya eo~esu!l~sss~lor~bene@81~Ior~md~Al~d~se?~ond~b!i~db~s~!~e qui~miXed ~nd~do~hol#~iv~e a~snongimpr~ss~l~op~that~economi~c faClOIS bave b~demogr~biC~e~c~ts~; ~b~1~$he~E~sul~ls ~ consiis~1eb1 Aide Bare ~ypd~e~<i~s ~ ~ econoblic~uptu~ns~!bavp~bad~po~s~l$ive~sdn~m~ini~aGes~o!d~lbi~h~s Ones of ends. E~s~.sHo~evo6~ anyone economic indiCalOt, tb!e~Odd ~pd~ce~oT Gb)~nd 01S, bath He b~ypp~es~ized ~lS~C~S~S ~1~1 ~e!~OUlC~-e$~;~ aim trig ~ Is in ~: -~ ~t<~ in~Sen~ese~sec ^ ~ _ Laces lo produced an He snOrl~run~s=~8osorD~shocK$~v~la~Gov~e~mm exped~dit~s~s~!~!~Tb~s~e~Eof~tbS~~:s~b~ind~ica~is~of~the~-dm(~suc~b . loopy donut Bag Sub ~consis~t~nt effects ~!m~y~Oec m~ti~c~cb~s~ fin These ~indlc~Tors Sling Bend. ~ 17~ acre SO cb~cs ~n gel atomic Act awn ed~uc~1io~ ~ Id ~ the modal: Gag ~ ~ ~coup. urban ~ = .1.0). bug tbc sum is Ate; ad WPG~ in gum (I .. as fir. Babe Hand gas n01 $igni5caS~1 ) = .l 1) far :~ ELI $ampid \~n ratio v~ ccnt~1{ 19~c sum of 1bc cans on ^~ berg a1~ significantly ^~alivc in tag ma ~includ~ ing Vacation ~ tab anal ~m:plc ~ ~ .e).
i~ : ~ ~ ~ ~ ::::: so ~'= ~: ~ it -= :! ~ - ~ Hi* = Off ~ Ax ~ :. ~ x Ax =+ ~ ~ ~ I: :9 sppO~ ~ ut wO~9x~!x~: ~5 -/ := = :: ~ :~ :: I:: ~ := m: ym: =: :` := ~: it: it: _ ~ ~ ~ :m Dig: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - : A ~ Y ~ f 4 ~ f f -^ I> ~, X: ~:' f = By: ~= 04 =: (Ada =:~ dO31:~t u) su:~; Ig;~G 2` ~ ,.= i: - . Gil: , _ ~ :X ~ ~ ~ m: - : _` = IS - : ~ ~ = :m =: X ~ it, 4 X4 ~:t ::X~ := id: At: -:4p9* :~ ~.f - . ~ : -~: .~ :~ ' :~ :~ ~ := .= := ,*44X d~ £~* dg::3 't$X :~, ~: ~' y:= 4o ~ :~: ~ .= := ~: ~ _ s4a ~f ~ ~ ~ 4 ~ ~+ 4~ =^ , t: :§ i: f :t ~:~ u:T ~:) ~ye;~:0 .:= :~.^ -~: ~F_ ~G ,=. ~= `~: . ik.= ~r~-r~_~'= :X~X - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ y ~ A y ~ ~ ~ y A ~ X 'O O ~X =~:0 50) ~(ft 8~':~; ):~:~ ~* :90 P~ ;~ X~ .~ ~y :~ f~ ~< ~' ,~,X ~ - ,,>: C~ ~' +4~ 49,.~: ~} ~,: ~: 4_C : - ,: r=~. 4~: WS: : ~: .: ~: :> :~ ~i'. f,*,, :~: < .= :~ '~ ~ ~X '^< := ~ :~ - it*~: ~ f~ ~ . ;. ~* f ~,,.,X ~4 3: t: ~ ~ . ~ :~ *b ~ , - . 4,` :~ =:
{:~0 TABLE 5-1 Peaces of Time Period on EM ~ ~ i~6 #~\ ~^ Welcomes, Senegal Cb:l~ld ~o~il:il~ _ I_ Tong urn I ~!~s~Ro;~! ~Tot~1 urn fug Tan ~.~03 <. ~-.06 I As a:- ~-.02 ~ ,. , ~As. tS~!~V~8l~$) ~Sly ~ ~.~ss~s~ ~!~!~!~s #~ and Tsar .~36 ~s~:~s ~*~^ ov~adon as** .~25 ~a** gas idea USA* .03*~ ~ ~as ~ s sag.: ~:~:vad~tio ~!~,,~,,,~::~ iSt ~.33 .21 s ~.26 And ~70 .e 14, ~3,S~ `, as, _ C)ild~n ,... . Me ~,79 ,.i ~ ail:! . Ply mo#li~ Thesis, a;b of chided is Wool. ~ of analysis is 19701985. / m~6 ~ big Polyps p~ of ~s~l$~sc~1ed;~s~scc~~d~bir~ ~ily:s~is, Ha: bag as co~#llod. mood of ~alysi$ if }9~1983. i~ Adams a Banal of Ail< .10; gas gem ~ /~v~il~e of < .03~. .~ sag ~.~.,~s s 2.977 . ss... .
~:~:~g S:~b : ~U~n :~ In ~:~.:~S c:! ~:x~ :! - ~: :: 02~ *: ~- ~0~: $ ~ ~ Hi- x03* 00:~ ~.~ ~.~' ~ ~ ~ 08 A =~ '0~ ~ ~5:6 'I ~c4'* ~ ~ ~ *: ~ ~ ~ ~: I'61 ~ 971. ~ ~2 I'd.'' S~.0 ~ by::
=: :~y ~ i I. ~= ~2 '= Am: ~ ~'' ~. ~=, : ~*_t ~ =: ~: . = ~f i: :o ~ Am: ~ ~ ~ as} ~ c: :' - i. =< %~ ~ ~ -= >3 At' In ~ ~= ASP ~ ~ ~ -a >* ~ Am: - i ~ . ~ =:' ~ -= { ~. . ~ - : - S<q~ .>~o in? -,,~ ~X' 4~ :~. : ~ >is, Ott< by* :~: = sad it: - ~ - Jig ' - hi< So '= ~: - 13' ~ ~ : ~:~> =< 3> ma' ~ - ~ ~A ~X =< ~ ~ i ~ :! I. am' :=K ma. ~. My:=:=< i. ~,<:. . ~ ' ~2 ~ $ 2 Em, >= ~-. ~Ace: , I ~ ~ X~ ~X . ~A ~.. S r r , ~: ~i: ~ <a ~ '} ~ := ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ha: ~ >: :. ~ i:: a: ~ : ~ :. ~ ~ ~ ~<~: ~ ~4i :t ~ ~-a ., ~ ~ So ma, ~:~;3 ~ ~ ~ c;,{ as Off ~ C3 ~ ::
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772 =~ RE~ ~ I Two is l.~s~d by chewed B=k (19~89b) as ~ lo~er~inco~ count; its CAP per C~i~l~ Has $~q~!i~ 19!87. ^~hc~llure could for 29 peats of GDP in 193~7. and Cloyed 73 pe~rce~1 of Me 1^r ~e figs lasso. share of GDP tom Id us Was 18 bent in 195~7. we moor Cod cats ~ yams, cassav~a, ma brats, rice, millet, ~$~b~, Id (sb. Edge capes ~ncl~^ cowed cache, gad co110n Pb~osph~s ~ ~ imps egg tort. ~counti~n~e far =~60 ant of cola expo~!~e~a~ings in we edgy Movement ~e~ is~!~aTso bravely ~4~#t~ off ~pbosphalc~ ear area bec~~se~ of gov~e#-nl hip of pros mines {^dd Baa, 1991~. As Eisg~s 5~-14 illsdis~s, Par cats outgun inch area 1b~ugh he 1~ ~ 1~ ~ ~ ~ 1~, 'my 1~ . . ~ ! pbo$pba~ mining seas Drily lie solute of incomes Id got ~i~^l~,^~^~ ~n tripled ~ palest of Become Id scoot, too oh lit C~X~~, experienced boom~sin 1977~ a ~ e i~ncnease-in ~oven~entrevenpp$ due to tbe~se p~iceincrease~s w~s~us~dib!~nancS an ~ biti~us~i~ves~men$pnog _ , 0 ~bicb 46 oercenl! of G~pP!~is {Uoc~d in 1978.~ However tat collapses in tbe pd~ce;s °fc!P°~ Woodsy ~ er 1978~re~sul~di~n deb!p~bblems~.~ nllElI~ data none from 1~6 beSceht~!~!~6f COUP in 14~0 tang A)~oenoent~i~n lesion. ARer 1983, able began a~series at S1~11iZa110~ policies aimed ~ in Itincr~a~od pods ~ ces crea$.i~ng exports Add reducing d am burdens. for major Espy Spa, cog and Front D ~rivatitdd~ several pabl~i~c en~rphsest ~ d Bink,1991~. However continued adverse en mention its 1OnnS of made gad decl~i~nes.in bhos~ba~ carport combined lo yield slog or~nega#ve~gro<~ln tag years D<~!~1.~983 and ~19~86. By 1988,re~ producer prices for comae ~d cocoa ~u l~len te10~ Rosa 198~0,su~peslinp decltie~s i) aura liv~insg~stmd~rds. However tbe~cove~n - .. ... , . ~ ~ n~en~lincreasod c~xp/nd~it~ressOn~educallon, be~tb~,~and!~socia1 services be Bant'198~9b) Indira evidence suggests lbS1 neither the co _ edify pact boom id the 1970s nor its co11ap~sei~n~tbe 198~0s aftc~d tb~e~ncomes of~rur~ house: ~ ~ . ~ golds very m~ucb. Togo m~inilains slabs producer prices for comae and cocosadesp~i~ nag ~ons-inw~od~d~p~ces.~Evidenceoflbis Policy comes di~C~tlY6~m ~e$bri~esdngmiucer~d~orlipd.ces~po~din ~~X Males A~6 and A-8 We c=~cidn~ of v~iabon of ~o florid Paces of c^ ~ chow over the ~1960~1987 Ida ~ boa 39 ~ce~1. The Lien ~ of producer ~ ce$ of c ^ and cocoa mere 19
costs ~^ End. 20 parent, ~s~cli~v~ely WE Ale laded Sprites 77S -geese! coma in ~e ~1~970s,< Educe paces Uses Only sligb11/ Li~ise~. Climes. fins ~oso~modity~ pricer ~e~rbss-n~ot Id ball lams delis align ~p~d!uc~! Ems. a ~o~o~o~ come ~ coo p~dut~1ions visa sc~- cen~ted~ fin He plateau Eliot. ~E~6n.~so~,~ h~ousebolds~ throusibout Ha! C0~ . . . .S , ^^ . , . may have been Icy by me commonly Alar moans ala cues in Vent e~d~it~s~. Some evidongsp~ point As a ~!1 Ad King cenle~d~on ~1~977< Which i~s~no1 din ~~ tiles of CDP far Id my beve bean ~ arm_ ~ ceders ads 1.5 ~:cep1 logger :~.n 1977 1b~ it ~ fin: 1976 Nodded ^g~cul~re~ O~ini/ation,~ 1~8~3~.~ ~ fins optic he bade I pita cowed Ink :i!~uences~! it~!!~of~ economic~!s~s~bock again ~neighboripg~! !\igeda I.. . ~ Iced by moves ~t c~i~l8~!~!!OipP~ ~e!S!~=S~bf 1~xpo~ q~li- ieS!.~e~0~1d~p~ces~0fspbb~spb~e~s.,s!~^~!, Duo ad pa pies . ~ ~ Of~Co,~nd!!~CjO!Oa;~itsidbe~s~i~fof~s~s!~#ker~!~!!!couhidj!s,~pe!~!sc~pila~ODP!sprves de~nn~i~n~nts ofli~v-ing~stlsd2nds~!~i~sb~b~s~fb~!in~s!areas.~The!~producbr pdresserve as urns of any Acing st~sdards. Child mo~alitv declined shadily ~ m 1960 go 19!83 and ads braved 1~\ fatality age ~i:$ One!{ six (C~oben, 1993); and the Goof mandage~bas gee monad Wily consign Eva ~ Male, 1993~. The dossed Mend in modality Mom 1970 10 19~87 fortbe ~o~1 and ural$~plesis sbo~n in Figures i-14 and 5-16 and lathe 5~23. Tbereis . . tion ground We hand for any oflbe~gTOupS. The enacts ofeconomic variables on moruJ~lly Mixed (liable 5~24~. for to goal s ~ ple, the quantity of exports and the producer ph!ces: of cocosand cofte~s~eallne~alivelyre~l~esd~o child mo~i.l~y pelof ~end,~s bypotbesized, bill the World price of pbo~sphete~s {W Paw) bus ~ po$~id~ve enact. Forlho urban Maple, only the coefficients o!n 1be ~odd~pric~e of coffee group ~ sign~i~:c~nlIy d~i~=n1 ~om-ze~o. the sum of the coeficien.ls on EXQ is sig~ni~ntly less thin zero, but W PCOC and PAPPY have positive entcls. Tame gas ~ downward Ned fbc log odds of mandate far all be saps ~ m 1963 to 1988 (Figures 5~14~5-15,a~d 5-16 and ]blJe 5~23),
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716 [GA~`D:A limb ~ AGE per . ~ ~ ~ considered in oaf study (Ed Blanks 1~489b~)~. mole Wilbur countries coins sagged bag, Pagoda h~is-!~e~perie~nced ~ increase 1< He Victim Donut generated ~ a<gdc~ul~ over 9~ peal seers demos 1~ 1965~. agd~ul~lu~ Scowled ~: 32 Freon #~1~ output; by 19~!7, >~ Sib was 76 parent. As of 1980, 86 pe~e~nl~pf {e labor Eve ads in ~3cu~I~e~ Boor mod C1Op$ incl~u~ maim, mil~t, ~!pl~lai~ns' so~b!um, pursers ~ tuba. came ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - ~ - ~ ~ e~od. As $bo:~n in Fig~-17, Wanda sag elm ~tb Teen 1~9~60~ and ~1972, ad then ~ seven decline Been 1972S~and~!~!l9Ssp<. Were Hem ~ have Men some Bind eddy ~19~80s, 6U1 ~t decline assumed ~r 1983~ Clitic ins1~il1!~!~i~vi! ~ Ed Tic ->manage~ot,!!~^, ~ exogenous economic ~$ors, Aeon ate sages elf alto economic decline 1h ~1~, He bird rags of game Odd by sclgs~oo~ng countries Aim similar p~du~c!1ion Saturn Ed expels idly ~ ~ sea << ~e, ~ 1~>~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1~. . .. . . .. . Some #a alas also Amp s the meres sang Queen 1,74: ad 1979 because co~ gad Ton priers Bee bigb. l>' ~ric>~{ Steed ~, 1770~s fad \~ti~on-~!~bev~6 ~ ~ ~ - - ~ - - ~ ~ ~ ~ meat ~o~d b~an~il9~)- lee Airmen ~ Sculls caved ~r ~ - , ems clash ~ Aged spied Tom cab- pupation inm!! $ubsi~s~ce Cads ethos CHIN. Dam 158~,^ -~c Callus Sian 1965 ~ lion, mead cans ill 1980, add proton exports ham 69, 2~000 amend alas. Dodger Ages. ~, tabs gaps cloned a~o~st continuously thou the ~1970s. ~ producer p)~ces~kr cog had lost Sewers. of ~6e:ir 1972 s vanes by 19~81,~ and pander prices far cotton plummeted ever. Agog 2, A~dc~bl~r~ out Sea adv~e~ely Reacted by ~ Eon. in Apse Ed e~icullu~ e~1ens~io~h s<^ices. l!n ~)e~_I~, gash eslic in~vse~s~cot gas e~cep~ons~ly log Dam 1be lg70s; it wi6 Sty 6 pe~e~ni 198~0. Age died in ^p~di~x A., ~ dab ~ par c~a GDP ~ [~s~ ~ especially suspect. DIN combat to tbc one cognacs, ~; bib ~p used dam Boa be ~ ~ gee, fir ~ ~o ~1^ on ~ ~~r dam set Cam ~ Salad B=k~ alone digest drip sources yield ~1 gummy ~r ~an~ Par capiSa off in 1~ 198~. ~ Coeval upon+ of a seven decline in the 197Os is common ~ 3~1 $~^d~ dam gouges. -July, csonl:~uo6$ tin Its of Saucer pugs of come Ed Colts ~ ~01 available ~r Wanda. $0 He ~ snot gale to use tush papas in our ~l~ysis.
r~ gem 72~9 c Ersl~balisof Me ~198sOs~ was Mixed. In ~19~8sl,~ panda. Ad ~= seconom~ic~ come ~p~~!tbat~ included ~ de~- val~u~i~on, remove of many pace cools, ~d~ inc~es!~ib~ prodders Poesy. Real~ucer process ~r diode and~tottob~ere~i~bcr<~=esd m~o=~tb~nlne, _ ~ ~ !E~\p0~ qSU3ntitieS~!~ imp! ~::~g ~pOQ!S~. ~ IS! discuss ill ~ Outvote Am ~di^[e~!S!~S~OU{00~S!~!~ i~co~eds Quite ~di~re~ Amp swags I !~ncome!s~ Dung figs god. evidence indicates ~ Me economy gas in rec~ove~ ill He Rely Lagos. ~ lb ~1~!9!8~4,. ~tbe~CcOnomic~!c~oye)~ !p,Og~:~g~ ! en Plea Arid ~ls9~85~!~e~! HIS a cutups a! ~llo~pis by giving anew its -lie file Ion Was bog Ii~ig~g~!~ Ads ~cb~ged~!!!~l~Sen ~ ~1~98~1 abet Nest sentiments of 1be Emulation. . -: ^ : :: coma and corona. ~i!iS!uts~e~i~ttp~3ti~e~co~nomic~!~nVironmen1 belayed ~ cast ,~ me ~ of ~ Todd pricers ~s~d~o!!!~is~!~ot~!~!!!!~ol!~ !~ ~e!sc!~! Coo. sb~o~ld,~inss~e~> sync ~ ~e g~meas~re~ ~!~li!~ stamens; Bait mse~u~ment~ dog ifs ~ n8r IBM At I 1~01~!~ aloe abet sea. note~1~ ~ ~ ~: it. ~ ~ ^ - - - ~ abase the scruple Size gas smilli:n the casesof modality ~aslacking on residence ~ age 12in tbc cases of mania and fardl:71y, we mere not able go do the aneIys~is separably for urban Drug samples ifs Uganda made l~ild!e progress in educing cb~i~ld modality ill 1be ~1970s -- -^- gem fined above Seven ~ as- ~ and 19S80S (~i11, 1993), had the 101~ film rate chi.J.d~,n~per yeoman in tbeloe l980~s (Cohen, lo. Of ~onacn~may brave increased by ~ fag months in fbe lo fag decades, accordions to some evidence tvan de ~Ville.1993j:. The age at manicure ~d. upward id mo~il~.ty over Be 1970-1987 period. as oboe in 1ib)se i~28,ind~icate ~ sl~iSb1 but~signi5!cant 5-17 No - demonsu~es dds ~nd A<~n 1970 10 fee cad v 1980s. but succes~ tb~ . ~ _ . . . a, survive may bavei~mp!rovedi~nlhe~mid-1980s lucre IS no sl~nl1lcan~tyear~ lo~year via on around the find. The recuts of the ~n~ysi$ including economic variables age mixed. As An in Tubule 3~29* EX O had ne~atlve ^ positive el deco real World pace of colon (W PCOT) bad
770 ICON ^~S ~ I Tbe~l!og odds of m e age declined sighiC~c~ntly~ftom ~l960~sto~19~87~.bu In Tic it Vibes had no ~c~ (able ~ 5-30) ~ ~ Si~i~I~!y, ~ along Odds aloof C~^t~bi~b~ Shoed ~ ~s~i~nib~1~ ~do~! t~!nd<~E~buts~no~s~i~gn~tic~a~s~year>10<ycerv~=i~ation bb(~of~i~tbet~end.~Ho~eVe( 1~o~of~ge~.~s~conom~i~c v~4ble~s,~ODP~sper~d~i~d~1be ei~p-~mm~ index, Thee ~ss~l~ni~=t~#sid<ve~ e~c$s ~ One It big, ~ ISSUE ~ ~by~po~es~ized~ gable Dais 1!~: ~ ~ 6 r~se~<d~d~bl~- s~,tbe~~i~s~al~so~s~l~igb1~,~b~t~signi~c - Tend don ^ insthe~l6~odds~,~bj~t~no~v~hon~nS$of~lbb~ttend.E~sPt~!~O pP~per~d~ipl~ty~b~as pOs~i<~ve~e~cl Cough p~b~bi!li~sEof ~!~Scoids~s~s~bi^~,~s Abe ibc~!~qu~n~1ity~ Of ~. . SS Em AS [gand4~TbeSe risks boicy~at~for~Eep~ongmic~vadatioh~!~of~tie~nd,E ind~!thpugh~beyoLd tab scope of E daisy ~stud/~i~l~!~ay~ll be~s~dbalibe~do~+n^ ~e~<s~m~s~os 01 1!ly~l~gg ~a~e~as~$oclaleu~l~l~l~e~ ~l~:e~se~sss~l~s~b~lld~ mbr~111y~fka1~<e~pp~are~$~i~Ei*ure~-17~.~eVe6~fLe~i~cr<?s~idg~imporE lack of~^IDS hi u~di~donfoo~ds~this~i~ble~pret~io0~,br~yst~ssond~sec~ ond bi~bs~ssou~r ~Ss~blt$~i~ndic~aid~s tba~ssb~o~len0 ~ economic .~ari~aiiOns If And. se~s~Ceciall~v Its re~neclesd~ ~b) GDP~s~Def cam Ad ~ o~1~0f~e~0~s~: Bv~$o.~SiV6~dbe~s~difi~c~u~lt~ie~sin~me~&u!ds3~ ~ DP~in~andi~;~lbossp~s~sQlts should~b~ih:~<p~lesd . sS S S . EEL 1n tbc Meg fib education, ~ is a Gig variation asked Me mad ~ ~ .09).
.~.sO : :q =; = :x`= =. :x~ it i" :04: ~= ~ S a: At, IS :~: X :X XX ~4 S' Sly Sly A A. ~ i, ~skit ~ ~ i, ~~ I'm- 414~< ~ ~ ~ i: It ~'X :X := At' ~ .:~ AS; S ISLE i=: at: - ,, :,, :~ I:.' = .: . - ~S ALMS .~ :~4 := ~ ~ C>: SO-?: ..S>~sPS at:= ~ SEX .~ :~< : := :: : ~ sxs;u io USA u; -Assam ~ 60~1 used $~-~^x00 Base ;~,-4~: A:= := :x~ :=x ~:~ - .= m: .. . =: :: -= =: ~ ~ ~ := ~ ~! ~ : U:3 :~4 By: ox ~ :~ :m :~: ~ x x x ~ · ~ .: ~ ~ ~ ~A: ~ :~q :~: x~My ~ ~ : ~:~ ~ ~ :~: ~ - * ~ CAM At: ~ 44c At: ~A A 4 ~i, ~+: A X: X' ~t ' 3= do: :~: :~: ~ fir x~7 ~ ~ ~ :~ ~ :m ~ lox: ~ : go A ~ :+ ~ ~ ~X :X X: X: - :: g~.k-. = ' :.~ : ~ ' ~ :~ a: SAC : ~3 ma: . i. 'a ~ ~ ~ ' - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ +: K X :+ ~ ~ ~ ~ X X: ~'A ~ . :: = '¢ ~ =:= `-. ::^ . ~` of,`: :~: X=: =: a: :o ^:~C: ~ - ..: A *~ : : ' :> 'a Off: ~ of: '= ~ .40 :$,,* = 'a 'a: - *: - :~ ''lo: it ::: := .-* it lo* ~ :O :, ~ ~ :s ~ :~3
732 =~ ~~ ~ I TABLE 3~28 ~C1S of Time ~dod ~ Demogr~bic Ounces, Uganda a. eased ^ as Ha. Ceiled ~# : Firs Squad ~ ~ ~it Diane ~! ~Sian Blah, ^~ ~01 - 02 ! ~.01 ~01 ~'a ~ ~ ~ r ~ ~ ~ * ~ Q 1 go vendor .2~3 #age ~!~ .01~* 43 N^~ version . ~.3~7 ~ ~.:~1~0 .75 D01 ~ toad ~ I `. I, ~ OFF Cbil~n 16,074 - a: ~- ~<age - .. . . ~ - 4# # ~3~3 FIN Din Is, ~c of child i$ coal. trod ~of~ily$~ ail 1971987. \# Dam and -bit Polyps, a~ of woman if c~1~11od; in secon~bl~b~ =ily$i$. ace ~ Coma ad it since fit: bias ~ =~~I1~. Mood of analysis i.s 1~2~19~? ~ ' id a glue of < .10; <* mews ~ ~o at -0~ ~ a as ^ ^ TABLE 5-~29 BE Of ECOB~iC Bibles on Chil4 Iffily, [gander . . - ~ED Told! ^ Scow ~ Tog ~1 I. #1~, .. . . ~ lag ~ ~ >a ~ 0~ ~23 ~ ~.~1 ~0.^ ! ~0 25 1 ~ ifb~ ~26~ ~`P ~.! ~/. 2 ~ ~ as~ ~ ~ SS~* ~0.11 ~s~sO:l2~. ~! ~0~16 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ accepts ~ 88 ~ . . . ~ Ashy -lug) ~as C/~9ls ! ~~ zero ~^12 .02~* Sag of if ~ ~.49 0~.^ 0.12 0.41 Ma .2~6 . . ,~ saw ~ in ~7< ~6 an* . ~, - ~ ~ . ~. IDS: ~ ~ db~i~ld ~d~!~!y<2{ ~ corolla WBG~> {~1 Moss dams Dot 1~1~: ~` ~ ^ 1~1~; #~ ~ ~ ~ 1 Its ecus, ~1 world ~3 of coat, ~1970~1987; W~.~!~1 Did ~c of cog. 1~1~. ~ ~ ~d~ ~ ~v~ ~ < .~10; *a as a revalue ~ < 05.
cant -ad TABLE 5~30~ ~ Icy By Economic Vales 7~ ~ Jag ~ TOP EM ~COP IT by 1~ 0 ~/ ~ ~0~06 ~. ~Ha. 1 3 ~ 05 1 ~ ~ ~0~.~08 !0.1~ ~0.12 ~0~. ~.10 2 ~!~.14 ~03 0.12 0~.03 ~ 03 Sum of < ~ . ~ ~.85 ~!~ ~.31 ~ ~.2~8 ~ ~,35 .5~8 Sum of ~ CC ' ! ~ ~'# ~# ~ ~ art: ~ ADS ~0 S ~ Also ~ :~ Cow i! ~ up,. !~ it: s~dom~s~ ~= ~~ age. ~ 1~2 1~9!87; ~E~.~s I q_~i^~l~952~1~987!;~!!~ Ha, ~ of :~ iota ~ 1!96} 1~987~;~ ICE, #1~ toddy ^~ of. 1~962~1~987:!~i!~WPC#, ~1~ ~-d! ~ Of Id. 1~1~. ~ * i~lc~e$ ~ ~-v~c ~ < ~.10; *= Is If a<: ,~ TABS i~31 Ears of Comic Valleys on First Bags, Uganda WB ~EM ~) ~1: ~1 - - C=^icn pa 1~ 0 0~41 0 26* ~.030 020~.14 1 }1 1 ~{13 2 o.e ~.~1 of.of~^ Sum of 0~61 0.31 /~/~0 ~val=~)~ C= ~ zeal .08 ~.03 ~.85~.97. Sum of C=~CiCn 03**~ .* .75 .73 .77 BOTH: Age of Coma gad year a~ compiled. ~GDP, ~1 g~$$ ~$tiC ~t chin 1962^1987; =Q, cx~ quantum index. ~1962~1987: Ha. ~ ~ the index, 1962* 1987; In, ~ Told page of coma. 1962~1987; Wow, ~ gore Price of cage 1S~19~. ~ * I a -value ~ < .10; ** ~$ a p-~1~c ~ < .05.
7~ =~ ~= ~ I: TABLB 5~32 ~ EO)~1S~ of Economic V~diblesob Second Bibs, Uganda ~ BP EM ~ ~T ~ta1 C^~:ieol$ I ~ ~ ~~ ~1 ~ east TO - by ~1~ O ~ I.* ~ .17 ~0~. ~0x03 0.~06 1 =~.53* ~O.OS /~1 0 02 0.15 2 1.25*~* 0.3~2* ~ ~,s20 ~.03 ~.16 Sum of ~e: eggs ~ at: YE .~~ 1 ~ =~ .~i .~06* .52~ .96 63 so_ C~C~1S iS ZERO .~** .23 ,32,97 .79 _. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~- -S _osdc ~s~~ China. ~196231~987~;~ B. en Bum ages of Elm Big. 1~-~1~987~eC~, - - =~1 Bald Deco of cute. 19~1987. ~ ~ radices a ~1= ~ < ~.1~0; ~! mans a ~c ~ < .~. 1197; an, ~d~sE~pd~e~ofo~c,1962~9S7~rC0{
