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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era

Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences

Office of International Affairs

National Research Council

National Academy Press
Washington, DC
1994



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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences Office of International Affairs National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, DC 1994

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council and by the officers of the National Academy of Sciences. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Copyright 1994 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 94-65016 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05031-6 Available in limited quantities from: Office for Central Europe and Eurasia National Research Council (FO 2014) 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 Additional copies available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave, NW P.O. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 1-800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in Washington metropolitan area) B-276 Printed in the United States of America.

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences COMMITTEE ON DUAL-USE TECHNOLOGIES ROLAND W. SCHMITT (Chairman), President Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute ALAN G. CHYNOWETH, Vice President for Applied Research (retired), Bellcore, Inc. LINCOLN D. FAURER, Lieutenant General (retired), U.S. Air Force, President and Chief Executive Officer, Corporation for Open Systems SEYMOUR E. GOODMAN, Professor of Management Information Systems and Policy, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona JOHN E. HARVEY, Director, Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University ROBERT A. SPRAGUE, Division Staff Engineer, GE Aircraft Engines MITCHEL B. WALLERSTEIN, former Deputy Executive Officer, National Research Council, currently Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counterproliferation, U.S. Department of Defense Staff PETER K. MACDONALD, Program Specialist, Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, National Research Council JOHN J. MODZELEWSKI, Program Officer, Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, National Research Council MICHAEL R. STARKENBURG, Technical Editor, Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, National Research Council

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences This page in the original is blank.

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences PREFACE This publication reports the results of a one-year joint program between the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) on dual-use technologies and export control. The goal of the program has been to define a balance between the conflicting demands of controlling the spread of technology for strategically dangerous armaments while encouraging the spread of technology for economic growth and development. The program, which ran from December 1991 to December 1992, had its origins in the two major reports on U.S. national security export controls* which the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering prepared in 1987 and 1991, respectively, at the request of the U.S. Congress and a number of executive branch agencies. The more recent efforts of the Commonwealth of Independent States to join Western economic and security regimes created the impetus for this current effort. With the exception of a joint statement of the NAS and the RAS, the views expressed in this document are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of either the NAS or the RAS. The NAS expresses its appreciation to the Russian Academy of Sciences for its cooperation throughout the program. Special thanks are owed to Major General William Bums (retired), leader of the NAS delegation on its exploratory mission to Moscow; Dr. Roland Schmitt, Chairman of the NAS delegation; Academician Gennadiy Mesyats, Chairman of the Russian delegation; Dr. Mitchel B. Wallerstein, former Deputy Executive Officer, National Research Council, and current Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counterproliferation, U.S. Department of Defense; and Mr. Glenn Schweitzer, former Director, Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, National Research Council and current Director of the International Science and Technology Center in Moscow. Financial support from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. *   Finding Common Ground: U.S. Export Controls in a Changed Global Environment, 1991, and Balancing the National Interest: U.S. National Security Export Controls and Global Economic Competition, 1987, are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, Washington, D.C. 20418

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences This page in the original is blank.

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences TABLE OF CONTENTS     Executive Summary   1     Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: A Joint Statement of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences   3     Papers Presented at the Third National Academy of Sciences-Russian Academy of Sciences Joint Meeting on Dual-Use Technologies, December 12-20, 1992*   33     High Performance Computing: Controllability and Cooperation Dr. Seymour Goodman, Dr. Vladimir Levin, Dr. Ivan Safronov, Dr. Peter Wolcott, and Dr. Aleksey Zabrodin   35     An Assessment of the Controllability of Dual-Use Technologies: Optoelectronic Devices Dr. Alan Chynoweth, Dr. Yuri Nesterikhin, Dr. Lev Pyatnitsky, and Dr. A. Sobolev   57     American Contribution for the Joint Paper of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences Working Groups on Structural (Functional) Materials Dr. Robert Sprague and Dr. Albert Westwood   77     Russian Contribution for the Joint Paper of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences Working Groups on Structural (Functional) Materials Dr. Alexander Ovchinnikov   87     High-Precision Weapons as a Phenomenon of the Twenty-first Century General Oleg Rogozin (retired)   97     High-Precision Weapons Colonel V. Tsymbal (reserves)   105     Thesis of a Speech on Dual-Use Technologies and Export Control General I.P. Lebedev (reserves)   107 *   All documents presented at the December 1992, May 1992, and December 1991 programs were neither approved nor endorsed by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. The opinions and thoughts presented in these papers are solely those of the authors.

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences     Conceptual Approaches to the Problem of Dual-Use Technologies Dr. Mitchel B. Wallerstein   111     A Binocular View of the Issues Associated With Dual-Use Technologies: Two is Enough to Have a Fight; It Takes More to Keep the Peace Dr. Valery Spector and Merrill Walter   117     Papers Presented at the Second National Academy of Sciences-Russian Academy of Sciences Joint Meeting on Dual-Use Technologies, May 26-29, 1992   121     A Conceptual Approach to Addressing Dual-Use Technologies: A Framework for U.S.-Russian Dialogue Glenn Schweitzer   123     Joint Concept of U.S. and Russian Provisions for the Ensurance of Global Stability Under Conditions of the New World Order General Oleg Rogozin (retired) and Dr. Valery Spector   131     Basic Trends in the Development of Mechanisms for Controlling the Export of Dual-Use Products General Remir Stepanov (retired)   139     Control of Dual-Use Technologies: A Businessman's Recommendation for Preserving the Military and Economic Security of the United States J.D. Rittenhouse   147     The Justification for Establishing in Russia a Commission on Non-Proliferation of Potentially Strategically Dangerous Technologies General Oleg Rogozin (retired)   155     Main Goals of the Proposed Commissions of the Cabinet of Russian Ministers on the Containment of Potentially Strategically Dangerous Technologies and Weapons Valery N. Spector   161     Application of Verification to Dual-Use Technology Export Controls and Related Issues Dr. John Harvey   163     Critical Professions and Categories of Scientists and Engineers, Principles of the Professional and Social Motivation of Their Activities, and Rational Employment Under Conditions of Science Conversion in Russia Dr. Yuriy Vershinin   177

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences     Case Studies Dr. Seymour Goodman   181     Economic Incentives, Conversion, and Dual-Use Technologies: The Case of Russia Dr. Clifford Gaddy   189     Appendices   199 Appendix I:   Participants and Agenda for the Third U.S. National Academy of Sciences-Russian Academy of Sciences Joint Meeting on Dual-Use Technologies, December 12-20, 1992, Moscow   199 Appendix II:   Participants, Agenda, and Initial Framework for the Second U.S. National Academy of Sciences-Russian Academy of Sciences Joint Meeting on Dual-Use Technologies, May 12-20, 1992, Washington, D.C.   205 Appendix III:   Participants and Protocol from the First U.S. National Academy of Sciences-Russian Academy of Sciences Exploratory Meeting on Dual Use Technologies, December 13-21, 1991, Moscow and Perm, Russia   215

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Dual-Use Technologies and Export Administration in the Post-Cold War Era: Documents from a Joint Program of the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences This page in the original is blank.