Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment

Report of a Workshop

Bert F. Green, Jr., and Anne S. Mavor, Editors

Committee on Military Enlistment Standards

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1994



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Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment: Report of a Workshop Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment Report of a Workshop Bert F. Green, Jr., and Anne S. Mavor, Editors Committee on Military Enlistment Standards Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1994

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Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment: Report of a Workshop NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The work of the Committee on Military Enlistment Standards is sponsored by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Personnel and Readiness) and funded under Defense Supply Services Contract MDA903-90-C-0028. The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of Defense position, policy, or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 94-65606 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05041-3 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418 B315 Printed in the United States of America

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Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment: Report of a Workshop COMMITTEE ON MILITARY ENLISTMENT STANDARDS Bert F. Green, Jr. (Chair), Department of Psychology, Johns Hopkins University David J. Armor, Institute of Public Policy, George Mason University Jack R. Borsting, School of Business Administration, University of Southern California Frank P. Brechling, Department of Economics, University of Maryland James A. Hoskins, The Wirthlin Group, McLean, Va. Robert L. Linn, School of Education, University of Colorado, Boulder Bengt Muthén, Graduate School of Education, University of California, Los Angeles Charles R. Roll, Jr., The Rand Corporation, Washington, D.C. Richard J. Shavelson, Graduate School of Education, University of California, Santa Barbara Alexandra K. Wigdor, Director, Division on Education, Labor, and Human Performance Anne S. Mavor, Study Director Carolyn J. Sax, Administrative Associate

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Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment: Report of a Workshop Preface The Joint-Service Job Performance Measurement/Enlistment Standards (JPM) Project was initiated over a decade ago in response to congressional concerns regarding the quality of the All-Volunteer Force. In its initial stages, the project's efforts were devoted to demonstrating the feasibility of using hands-on tests to measure the job performance of enlisted personnel. The purpose was to provide a criterion measure based on job performance that could be used to validate the selection test used by the military to screen applicants for enlisted service. This stage of the project resulted in the construction of valid job performance tests and the collection of data for a cross-section of military jobs. In the past three years, the focus of the project has been on incorporating job performance into the development of a cost/performance trade-off model to be used by military manpower planners in making decisions about recruit quality goals. This model links recruit quality to job performance on one hand and recruit quality to personnel costs on the other. Understanding these linkages provides a clear rationale, based on performance and cost differences, for choosing applicants for military service. In June 1993 a workshop was held to present the cost/performance trade-off model to military manpower analysts as a tool for planning and justifying various mixes of recruit quality. At the workshop, presentations were given by individuals involved in developing the model, by Service representatives who had either used or carefully reviewed the model, and by members of the Committee on Military Enlistment Standards.

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Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment: Report of a Workshop This report provides a set of papers on which workshop presentations were based. The context for the workshop and the need for the cost/performance trade-off model are introduced by the first paper, which examines trends in the quality of military personnel from the beginning of the All-Volunteer Force to the year 2000 and beyond. Other papers discuss technical issues associated with the development of the various components of both cost and performance linkages and present applications of the fully developed model. Following opening remarks by W.S. Sellman, Director of Accession Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense (Personnel and Readiness), Part I provides an overview of the enlistment standards project. Part II includes two papers on job performance measurement issues. They represent two approaches to generalizing performance results to jobs for which no performance data are available and to interpreting job performance scale scores. Part III includes two papers describing the cost/performance trade-off model and its applications. The committee is indebted to the workshop presenters and participants for their contributions to the success of the workshop. In addition to the authors included in this volume, the committee would like to extend its thanks to William Carr, Gerald Laabs, Captain Gary Macomber, and Major James Thomas for their thoughtful comments on the use of the cost/performance trade-off model. We also gratefully acknowledge the support and encouragement of Dr. W.S. Sellman, Director of Accession Policy, and his staff, Lt. Col. Thomas Ulrich and Jane Arabian. Finally we wish to thank Carolyn Sax for her efforts in planning the workshop and preparing the manuscript for production. Bert F. Green, Jr., Chair Anne S. Mayor, Study Director Committee on Military Enlistment Standards

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Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment: Report of a Workshop Contents Opening Remarks: The Nexus Between Science and Policy W.S. Sellman   1 Part I: THE CONTEXT OF THE ENLISTMENT STANDARDS PROJECT   7     Military Manpower Quality: Past, Present, and Future David J. Armor and Charles R. Roll, Jr.   13 Part II: JOB PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT ISSUES   35     Setting Performance Goals for the DoD Linkage Model Lauress L. Wise   37     Predicting Job Performance Scores for Jobs Without Performance Data Rodney A. McCloy   61 Part III: THE COST/PERFORMANCE TRADE-OFF MODEL   101     The Accession Quality Cost/Performance Trade-off Model D. Alton Smith and Paul F. Hogan   105     Policy and Management Applications of the Accession Quality Cost/Performance Trade-off Model Paul F. Hogan and Dickie A. Harris   129 Workshop Participants   159

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