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Air TecArlology . Tle Transport Velicle army Its Development Environment JOHN E. STEINER Virtually every commercial or military airplane operational today could be technologically superseded by the end of this century World com- petition is a forcing factor, but affordability and planning imply re- straints. The latest generation of civil transports reflects a significant incremental step into twenty-first century technology. As the techno- logical building blocks offering new efficiencies are validated, the in- tegration task and dependency upon it will increase. In addition, air vehicles must become integrated into a new, advanced-technology, na- tional and international airspace system to attain the important efficiency and safety advantages of total four-dimensional (4-D) strategic control. TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET NEEDS The spiraling price of fuel subsequent to the 1973 oil embargo was one of several major influences that had an impact on the direction of jet transport developments during the past decade. The price of fuel as an element of direct operating cost for the trunk airlines is shown in Figure 1. Economic distortions of this magnitude, of course, put much greater priority on the readiness of advancements, contributing to sig- nificantly higher orders of fuel efficiency. This signaled a fundamental change to both development and operational objectives, which until that time had been largely oriented toward performance. This is not to say that earlier jet transport developments had not produced efficiency ad- vancements. Fuel efficiency has improved at a very steady rate of about 138

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 139 30 percent per decade over the jet transport's 30-year development history, as illustrated in Figure 2. The trend line in Figure 2 encompasses a broad spectrum of airplane sizes, and thus scale has little to do with its continued slope. Fuel cost was not the issue that established this trend; however, fuel efficiency has always been highly significant for competitive range performance gains. It is expected that the efficiency trend will continue and, more likely, will increase as the shaded area of the illustration indicates. More frequently than not, a technological gain will be countered by any number of offsetting factors in its environment- for example, the delay trends at major airports (see Figure 34. This problem actually preceded the energy crisis by nearly a decade as air transportation's growth accelerated so very rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s. Rapid growth creates its own constraints, as was the case with the imposition of noise regulations and other environmental con- straints. However, in terms of today's problems, delays have been greatly exacerbated by airline and hub interchange patterns that evolved with the deregulation of airline competition. Today, with more and smaller aircraft operating from an expanded system of hub interchanges, traffic delays account for as much as a 50 percent nonproductive fuel burn on some shorter route segments. The technology that will virtually eliminate traffic delays is in hand. This vital aspect of aviation technology is dis- cussed later. For now, however, it is well to emphasize that deregulation itself is an indirect contributor to technological changes. Nonetheless, it has become a very powerful contributing influence on the general direction in which jet transport technologies are headed, and, for that matter, on the direction in which the U.S. industry may be headed. The cost of labor is one of the major competitive problems for pre- deregulation trunk carriers, as Figure 4 illustrates. It is readily apparent from this chart that airline salaries have increased substantially faster than has inflation or the revenue yielded from air fare structures. There is ample evidence that low-cost air fare competition is the most sub- stantial force driving the trunks toward lower cost and more efficient and productive operations. In like manner these needs have shaped vehicle development objec- tivesi.e., major improvement in operating efficiency, reduced crew workloads, and growth to 4-D navigationlaunching the most recent aircraft types now in service. In this sense deregulation has reinforced operating efficiences as the principal development objective. Devel- opment of the Flight Management System (EMS) was accelerated in recognition of airline efficiency needs. However, the readiness of con- tributing component and systems technology preceded the Deregulation

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140 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY Act by more than a decade. In fact, significant aspects of FMS's de- velopment are rooted in U.S. supersonic transport (SST) work of the 1960s. The FMS evolved from the SST and other independent programs, which were generally oriented toward automation of flight management and control functions. The relationship of these efforts is show in Figure 5. The FMS is a fully integrated digital electronic system that provides previously unavailable performance optimization and flight management capabilities. The automation and integration of flight control and per- formance management permit a substantial improvement in direct op- erating costs, primarily by reducing fuel burn and also by reducing the cockpit crew requirement. This is a very significant advancement with respect to today's efficiency needs, but more importantly the FMS tech- nology represents a vital step toward twenty-first century potentials. Some other evolutionary improvements can be expected to appear over the rest of the 1980s, but most of the new products to be offered in this decade are already known and will be competing for the world open- lift market (see Figure 6~. Several facts are crucial to future U.S. developments with respect to this forecast. First, there is a 40 to 60 percent split in the open market that emphasizes a huge expansion cycle by foreign airlines. Developing nations are expected to form the higher growth segments in this expan- sion. The second point may be more critical. The earlier timing of foreign market growth will significantly stimulate foreign industry in readying advancements that will be applied to designs for the next generation of jet transports. The U.S. industry could become quite vulnerable in this respect, since an advantageous momentum in developing the visible potentials could technically supersede today's products by the end of this century. DESIGN BUILDING BLOCKS The design advancements for twenty-first century transports are em- bodied in a very large number of potentials that are quite visible to all of the world's aircraft builders. The development of these advancements will doubtless bring vast changes to aeronautical reality as it is known today. Nonetheless, the potentials are so numerous that selectivity among the development options or combinations thereof is itself a problem, and fairly complex, in that the twenty-first century potential is founded on integration complexities of far greater magnitude than those expe- rienced in combining wing sweep with the axial-flow compressor some four decades ago. The integrative aspect is discussed in more detail

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 141 later, but it should be emphasized here that integration considerations become very apparent at a much earlier stage of development than they did in the past. The development possibilities among materials illustrate the selection problem. The next generation of transports may well spring from a body of composite technology that has progressed sufficiently to allow com- posite application to most of the primary structure. We expect this to be the case, with composites accounting for about 65 percent of dis- tributed airframe weight. In this event aluminum use would diminish to about 11 percent (compared with 80 percent in the Boeing 767~. How- ever, advanced aluminum developments indicate that another scenario could develop. The options are shown in Figure 7. The aluminum alternative (right side of Figure 7) suggests that this material's use could amount to over half of the total distributed weight, dropping the projected composite applications to about 25 percent. This alternative scenario developed from the promising advancements in alu- minum-lithium alloys, which indicate that aluminum density can be re- duced some 3 percent by using a 1 percent lithium addition. The sig- nificance of this development is perhaps better understood by recognizing that the empty weight of the 747 could be reduced by about 11,000 pounds through the substitution of this material. Some other promising materials developments currently receiving attention are shown in Fig- ure 8. In this figure the general materials development boundaries are iden- tified as we presently understand them. The integrative potentials of these or of other materials systems or hybrids with other advancement areas will shape the ultimate design selections. From a fuel efficiency standpoint, however, as much as one-third of the expected improvement potential may be derived from new materials. Generally the advancement pattern of aircraft development has fea- tured some basis for advancement in a current development that forms a launching pad for a new generation of technology. The all-digital EMS implies this quality because of the multifunction integrations involved. Its development has unquestionably facilitated our ability to capitalize on other avionics-related potentials. Full-scale active control is a natural follow-on. The "full-scale" is emphasized to distinguish future devel- opments from the lesser active control developments known today. Figure 9 depicts a possible future active control configuration in com- parison with today's baseline. The wing is moved forward; the normal center of gravity moves aft; and, as noted, the horizontal stabilizer is significantly reduced in size. At cruise it will carry little or no load as compared with the large downloading on current designs. The full-scale

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42 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY active control development could produce a 5 to 10 percent improvement in efficiency. However, the introduction of artificial flight stability would necessarily emphasize the significance of electronics reliability and sys- tems redundancy to a level well beyond the sizable dictates in today's technology. The air vehicle is rapidly assuming an "electronic system" orientation, and virtually all of the advancement potentials (including the materials advances just discussed) have similar fault-protection con- cerns. As the air vehicle assumes a fundamental change in orientation, it can embody some new design concepts that might enhance specific air transport jobs, which will present an exciting possibility for designers. An example would be civil adaptions of the variable camber wing con- cept shown in Figure 10. Wing flaps and slats have been used for years in securing variable camber and wing cord extension. Most applications have involved drag-producing external structures and considerable weight. There may be some commercial transport applications in which cord extension is not as critical. In such cases an internal hydromechanical, computer-operated, low-drag system of camber variations as illustrated in Figure 10 may prove attractive. The possibilities of mechanically induced laminar flow-control (LFC) concepts, such as illustrated in the upper portion of Figure 11, have been known and demonstrated in test configurations for many years. Practical solutions for the problems associated with mechanical LFC fabrication and maintenance have proven very elusive, and until recently the concept had retreated from the forefront of aeronautical thinking. However, since LFC answers could produce an exceedingly significant 20 to 30 percent efficiency gain, world interest in advancing both me- chanical solutions and natural-flow improvements is again rising. As with the variable camber wing or some of the other possible civil transport potentials, a "second look" at earlier concepts is premised on the synergy of a totally new environment of advanced electronics and electrics, the evolutionary aspect of which is shown in Figure 12. The development trend is leading toward a completely different concept in flight control for civil transports and also toward vastly differing rela- tionships between the flight crew, the air vehicle, and the air system in which both operate. The all-electric developments imply a substantial reduction and possibly a future total elimination of hydraulics and con- trol cables, resulting in significant weight savings. It should be remem- bered that weight reductions translate into a smaller vehicle for a given job, thus reducing the cost of manufacture and acquistion. Elimination of cables also means that the familiar cockpit yoke will disappear, bring- ing different geometry considerations into the overall cockpit design.

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 143 Electronics-based advancements are key in attaining future air trans- portation potentials, and they have evidenced a growing significance in vehicle improvements made thus far. Rapid growth in avionics devel- opments is, of course, directly related to the digital avionics advance- ments discussed earlier. Many of the potentials illustrated in Figure 12 are in advanced development stages now. The insertion of digital pro- cessors into sensory and control systems is also one of the more current refinements that has been utilized in propulsion system developments. Commercial jet engine advancements have produced a 40 percent im- provement in specific fuel consumption over the last two decades, with more of the efficiency thus far centered on high bypass-ratio (BPR) engine developments. These trends are illustrated in Figure 13. While engine efficiency improvements are expected to continue at about 20 percent per decade, future engines may not much resemble those familiar today. Steady improvements in design and materials ap- pear to have made future gains less dependent on bypass ratios. The BPR increase trend in fact has a negative side in that it increases nacelle weight and, of course, contributes to a mismatch between takeoff and cruise thrust requirements. This does not mean that the high-bypass turbojet has reached its improvement capacity. It does, however, in- dicate that progress toward an unducted fan or turboprop is starting to look more attractive. Once design considerations move toward a geared cycle engine, the number of possible alternatives increases significantly. We should expect that some form of propellerlike machine (a propfan or new-generation turboprop) will attain operational status before the end of this century. The many possibilities in the propulsion area amply demonstrate that the potentials in aeronautics will clearly outweigh the resources available for development. One of the most difficult tasks over the next few years will be to make the right selections and to define an orderly development plan. Designer attention is always focused on the critical mass of tech- nology that is available. The building blocks discussed above are forming a new critical mass for future design focus. The relationship with present- day technology is shown in Figure 14. The building block "aiming points" (right side of Figure 14) are shown in relationship to a baseline (lower left) representing the 1970 efficiency level achieved by the 727-200 technology. The "improved product ef- ficiency levels" indicate the 1980 decade's technology gains that are incorporated into the latest new aircraft types. At each level, the 1970 baseline and beyond, a critical mass of available new technology was ready, and based in each were distinctive advancement threads leading directly into the generation ahead.

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44 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY Much of current industry attention is focused on the smaller-sized transports in the 100- to 180-passenger range. However, it should be noted that airplanes for a given job have become larger over time. It can be expected that the established capacity growth trend will continue. Economics of scale are involved and, of course, so is the predicted growth in revenue passenger and freight ton miles. This is mentioned because each step of increase has involved additional considerations and solutions for passenger accommodations both in the air vehicle and the terminal area (for loading and unloading) and also in airport access and egress. Fundamentally there is no technical limitation to size, but there will be a continued need for technical solutions and infrastructure changes to accommodate increased size. This need is illustrated by the current generation of transport growth potentials shown in Figure 15. The cross section shown in Figure 15 is that of the 747, which already has a 500-passenger high-density configuration for the Japanese do- mestic market. The illustration shows that the more conventional pas- senger payload for this airplane type could nearly triple by expansion to a full double-deck configuration. All airline markets differ, and while many airlines are absorbed in smaller aircraft solutions, others are ex- ploring potentials of the nature illustrated. Obviously airport infrastruc- ture, including the feasibility of double-deck access/egress systems, would have to be considered very seriously in such situations. READINESS: A NATIONAL PROBLEM One of the most perplexing problems facing the United States is our ability to exploit these cutting edges of technology in a manner that will most benefit the nation's economic and national security. In the arena of global high-technology competitions, these two objectives are in- creasingly viewed as being one and the same. The United States is uncomfortable with this view, partly because of our preferred divisions in public and private sector responsibilities. I am convinced, however, that in terms of our national understanding of technology, the greater difficulty lies not so much in areas of substance as in the advancement chain itself, namely, the progression from (1) fundamental knowledge (research) to (2) technology validation (readiness) to (3) product ap- plications (production). This advancement chain has two critical stages beyond the basic re- search that produces fundamental knowledge and reveals new techno- logical potentials. These recognitions come from multitudinous efforts and sources: government, academic, and industrial research facilities in many countries. I do not believe that the greatest area of U.S. national

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 145 discomfort is with this stage, or even with the last, in which technology exploitation occurs. The American industrial system has proven to be very effective here, providing that technological risks have been reduced to acceptable levels. To my mind, the most critical problems are centered at the midphase technology validation. U.S. advancement is much in jeopardy because we have become a nation completely at odds with the requirements that this stage entails. The requirements of technology validation are as follows: Midphase is the most critical, lengthy, and expensive part of the technology process. Risks are identified and reduced to product acceptable levels before a pro- duction commitment is made. "Validated" advancements can frequently be exploited as improvements in current product line. A "critical mass" of advancements may justify a new program start. The major difficulty is that the validation and application readiness of any advancement take a great deal of time and money plus carefully orchestrated continuity of effort (see, for example, the laser gyro system development history shown in Figure 16~. This strap-down development is a key component of the EMS ad- vancement described earlier. Its application readiness became highly significant to the efficiency gains made by the latest generation of trans- port aircraft. The 20-year program of development and application read- iness surrounding this one component was a multithreaded effort that built the body of technology and readiness acceptability on which its production commitment rests. There is no satisfactory way to circumvent the process or the need. However, today many people in national lead- ership positions wielding tremendous influence over technology do not understand the process or the need, which are shown in the following list. Readiness attainment is absolutely vital if production program costs and risks are to be acceptable. The task starts with identified potentials (civil view), not with identified mission requirements (military view). Producibility is part of the readiness task. Attainment involves the entire manufacturing/supplier base. Readiness is the least understood link in the innovative chain. Because the readiness attainment process is not understood by many in positions of national leadership, we have self-imposed barriers to read- iness that diminish the U.S. capacity to innovate. I believe that most of ...

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146 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY these barriers are unintended constraints, but they are nonetheless real. For example, in aircraft developments today there are requirements for an "audit trail," linking readiness tasks to an identified military mission need a specific weapon system. This one requirement places a top-downward constraint on what is logically the reverse a bottom-upward process of building. Seldom is it fully recognized that failures, delays, or cost overruns in weapons system developments may have been preordained because constraints of this nature short-circuited the midphase. An adequate job requires more time, effort, and money than many in the United States would care to admit. However, readiness attainment is crucial for successful production to occur, and other nations have been willing to pay its price. This is evident from the shifts in aeronautical leadership positions that are displayed in Figure 17. Despite slowed momentum, the United States still has the outstanding foundation for aeronautical attainment in terms of the breadth of its high technology in computers, propulsion, electronics, materials, and other areas, which will be united at the cutting edge of future air vehicle technology. However, it must be kept in mind that no matter how impressive this foundation appears today, it is vulnerable to the pace and continuity of foreign advancements. A NEW AIR ENVIRONMENT The twenty-first century potentials for aircraft, of course, will not be realized without modernization within the air system as well. In this area there is little doubt that the United States has assumed a leadership position, and for good reason. Today the United States operates the busiest air traffic control system in the world, and it does so with a remarkable level of efficiency and safety, given the workload. The U.S. national airway system today can be summarized as follows: Air traffic control and air navigation 233,000 aircraft 3,200 airports under system control (12,800 others uncontrolled) 126 million aircraft operations annually (four each second) Mixture of old and new electronic control equipment The current system has evolved piecemeal over the 40-year expansion in U.S. domestic air travel. As it functions today, it is expensive to operate and maintain and has little room for the expansion that future traffic growth will require. The limited capacity for expansion is partic- ularly sensitive since system saturations at key airports are already a . ~ .

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 147 serious factor, as was noted earlier. When combined with operations projections (shown in Figure 18) that indicate present traffic loads will more than double, it became clear that modernization would entail a total, phased restructuring of the system. Airline carrier domestic enplanements by the year 2000 will increase by more than 120 percent, and, of course, this will place extreme pres- sures on the 27 key U.S. airports that now handle about 70 percent of all domestic passengers. Also, very few new airports are expected to be built by the turn of the century. The National Airspace System Plan (NASP), initiated in 1982, which will bring U.S. airspace into the twenty- first century, was developed with the following objectives: Increase in control capacity (doubled by year 2000) Increase in airports controlled (410,000 aircraft operating from 4,000 con- trolled airports) Elimination of serious delays (4-D navigation) Improvement of safety Reduction of system and user operating costs It is important to note that the many years of effort that went into the plan's formation involved the entire aviation community, and the de- tailed phasing of implemention has been carefully coordinated with the airspace user. The fundamental elements of NASP are as follows: A national computerized integrated system Traffic control Host computer Solid-state radar Automated data link Integrated national telecommunications network Microwave landing systems Approximate cost: $10 billion over 10 years Eventual interface with most other world areas The transition and evolution to a year 2000 system architecture that incorporates all the elements noted above are challenging under any circumstances. However, bringing the new U.S. air system to reality is a task something equivalent to the Apollo program. It is all the more challenging in that phasing and the many integrations it involves must not interfere with the around-the-clock operation of the present traffic control system. The integrative challenges are enormous, and for this reason there will be an overall systems engineering and integration contractor selected to oversee the total effort. By the year 2000 we can expect to see computers in the air talking to computers on the ground to control

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148 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY navigation. In this respect the revolutionary changes wrought by digital electronics in aircraft systems and flight management are also extended into integration with the air system's ground-based elements in all 50 states, territories, and oceanic regions. The U.S. plan has been endorsed by the governments of Canada and Mexico. Eventually, it is hoped that the American system will find compatible interfaces with other world areas. INTEGRATION: A NEW DISCIPLINE If anything, this brief look at the cutting edge of aeronautical tech- nology tells us that the sum of twenty-first-century potentials will be derived from their integrations. Integration tasks will focus on three fundamental areas: (1) the air system, (2) the air vehicle, and (3) the airport environment (access and egress). Much will rest on how well we understand integration and its implications in a conceptual sense, on how thoroughly it is explored in risk validation, and on how efficient and effective the methodologies and processes employed for this are. Integration might be seen as a new discipline, considering what is not known about it at present and what this may imply for the more tra- ditional aeronautical technologies and processes. There is little doubt that the new digital electronics orientation of the air vehicle has caused us to reconsider design concepts in a completely different manner. The familiar tools and processes for research and analysis flight testing, simulation, and wind tunnels may also assume different significance. Integrative aspects of the cutting edge, for example, could amplify the role of simulation in design, testing, and verification over the coming years. This is not to say that wind tunnels, flight testing, and flight demonstration will become less significant. It does mean, however, that the new vehicle orientation would emphasize digital-based flight simu- lation techniques as excellent tools for detecting integration risks in- herent in many of the new digital-based advancements. Flight simulation is a powerful development tool that will find many significant engi- neering analysis, development, and test applications as a better under- standing of integration is achieved. Perhaps the first appreciation of this was gained when it became apparent that the subsystem integration necessary for development of the EMS concept also required the integration of the somewhat com- partmentalized testing capabilities into a cohesive, ground-based sim- ulation of a flying test-bed environment, far more complex in total than any simulation previously envisioned. Put another way, it was recognized that having "the right stuff" in on-board computer software is as vital

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150 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY changes that are integrating the processes of advancement and those of production. The trend of the future is toward integration; the reason is afforda- bility, a problem of both national and international dimensions. It will demand that the compatibility of technologies, processes, and people be thoroughly understood. This is the challenge, and we stand at the cutting edge of its solution. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The author gratefully acknowledges the contributions of others, especially that of L. K. Montle. 1.5 _ 2.5 1.2 _ 2 Cam per 0 9 Available Seat Kilometer 0.6 0.3 o J ~ _ 1.5 Cents per Available Seat Mile _ 1 _ 0-5 o Fuel _ Crew I.,, ~~ . ~ - ~-~ ' ~ _ . Maintenance '--a Other ~~_, I_ ~ (Depreciation, Rentals, Insurance) l l l l l l l l l l l l 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 Source: CAB Form 41, Schedule P5 U.S. trunks, domestic operations FIGURE 1 Influence of fuel price direct operating cost elements (constant 1982 dollars).

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 40 30 Fuel Efficiency Seat km/ 20 Liter 10 110 100 - Fuel Efficiency (Seat Stat _ mi/ U.S. gal.) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 F~GuRE 2 Fuel efficiency trends. 20 - Airports Experiencing Average Peak-Hour Delays of 10 30 Minutes/Operation or More o 1973 1 985 FIGURE 3 Delay trends at 25 major airports. 151 757-200 / 2. _'2''.2'2'.'. ''' 747-300 i/ 747-200B IncrGW 747-100B~ ~ 747-200B ~ ~6 ~ 767-300 737-200 Adv ~ at\ ~ 737-300 ~ 707-320~,~ ~ 767-200 - _ - ~ 747 SP ~ ~ \ ~727- 100 -a 707-1 20B 707-320 ~ 727-200 Adv 1000 nmi Trin O _1__ 1 1 1 1 960 70 80 90 2000 Initial Service Date (Year) With Today's System With Current System Developments With Advanced ~ Air Traffic 2000 ~ Management

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152 Index (1970 - 100) TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 Total Compensation - (Salary and Benefits) CPI - Passenger Yield (System) - - - 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 Source: Air Transport Association of America. FIGURE 4 Total compensation per airline employee versus consumer price index and yield. Reprinted with permission. 1968 1 1969 1 1970 1 1971 T 1972 1 1973 1 1974 1 1975 1 1976 1 1977 . I I I T I I I I l 707 AFCS | Sensors ~ 7X71Flight - Errol Developments 1 ~1 ~ 1\ ~ 1978 1979 Industry Participation Automatic Flight Triplex Digital AFCS Management Flight Tests Boeing Independent Developments Strapdown 707 Autoland Inertial Sensor ~ !~' | DOT/FAA Inertial \ | Smoothing ) r r SS1 ~ > I ~ L - 1 - Digital\ 7X7 Development 757/767 FM: Systemy / ~ 1/~ 1 : V ~ B737-NASA 515 Program > I ~ ~ Full Flight Regime T F Advanced Display Autothrottle (747) | DO / AA and Flight Controls ~ ~ I Perforn lance M anagement 1 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 '~ |Compu ter (727/ 737) Control Wheel Automatic Flight Functions Cat lil Autoland Digital Air Data Steering (737) Introduced Commercially Autorollout (747) Computer (737/747) FIGURE 5 EMS evolution.

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 3,500 3,000 2,500 ASkms 29000 (Billions)] 500 1,000 500 o 153 2,000 1,600 ASMs 1,200 (Billions) 800 400 O. 1 970 Open Market: $167 ($116). Billion (1983 Constant Dollars), Actual ', Forecast Total Lift Requirement ~,~//~//////~/, Current on Hand and ~nr~ ~ ////////// With : Current on Hand and on Order With ~ _ Retirement J Replacement . $58 ($38)' Billion 75 80 85 Year End 90 95 Note: Does not include U.S.S.R.-built jetliners Includes $6.7 ($4.0). billion freighter market, passenger market through 1995 is $160.3 ($1 12) billion in 1983 dollars Market through 1992 shown in parenthesis ( ) FIGURE 6 Commercial airplane marketworld open-lift requirements, 1983 to 1995. 65% (Potential) 54% (Potential) I ~ To 8% I=Titanium PI Composites _ Misc. _ Steel ~ Aluminum 25% FIGURE 7 Potentials for 1990 subsonic airplane materials weight distribution.

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154 50 40 Potential Structural 30 Weight Saving, (Percent) 20 10 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY 747 Baseline O 1970 80 90 2000 FIGURE 8 Future structural materials trend for potential weight savings. Baseline ACT EMU FIGURE 9 Active control technology (ACT). 10

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE Variable Camber Envelope Lift Ma Maneuver Cruise '/ Drag ~ FIGURE 10 Computerized airfoil camber control. Laminar Flow - Al l ll l lal r low Or?.. - ~- . - .. - I'-' ~ ~ Laminar Flow LFC Wing With Suction _ Laminar Floe Laminar Prow - 1 Natural Laminar Flow FIGURE 11 Laminar flow. 155 Turbulent Flow

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156 Performance 737 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY Next Generation Aircraft _' ;11 Electric ~ Controls ''- Flat Panel Displays - ' - Microwave Landing 757/767 - ' System All Digital - Flight '- Fiber Optics Management System _' (FMS) ~ ~ Full Autoland 747 ~ Digits' Air Data Autonav 727 ~ Inertial Nav 707~ - ATC Radar Beacon Cat I Autoland Radio Nav 1950 60 70 80 90 FIGURE 12 Avionic system evolution. 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 (Ib/hr/ib) 0 55 0.50 0.45 0.40 Conventional bofans Bypass Ratio 0 2 5 10 20 40 as Or Hybrid Configurations- / Geared and Ungeared, / Ducted and Unducted | / Conventional Turboprops 0 5 10 Diameter (ft) 15 20 FIGURE 13 Specific fuel consumption engine size trends.

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 157 I ,- I i' Air transportation system benefit Fuel efficiency Economics Approximate 727-200 efficiency levels _ [,,,"'- _' Aiming Point Efficiency Levels Composite Primary Structures Improved Product Efficiency Levels Engines Wing Electronics Structures Full-Scale Active Controls Advanced: Engines Electrics Electronics 1980 1985 FIGURE 14 Technology improvement. l ~ ~ ~ ~ Y ~ ~ ~ rat / 1 At- ~ . 1 ~ ~ 1 1 \ ,/~ ~ - \ == 1~ 1 C _, 1 1 _ r ~ ~ ~ I 'I 1990 1995 2000 GN EE rTiT EE | 1 1 ~ Gray - ~ ~ '<\:L N<----- ~ / in. 370 Seats 600-700 Seats 1000 Seats FIGURE 15 Growth potential.

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158 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY . . . . . Theoretical Development ~. A..'' >_ Laboratory Development and Evaluation l Technology Application l ,.,,, . .~_ Processes Software Producibility Testing I Advanced Gyro Development l Math Models Materials Block Design I 1 1 1 1 1 ~ 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 FIGURE 16 Laser gyro development. Aircraft Capabilities Basic R - earch Technology Refinement Am.- ~ r Systems Development and Applications I Flight Testing (14 Aircraft Programs) 1 1 1 1 , , , 1 1 1 76 78 80 82 1 950s 19608 1 970s 19808 Product |~ ~ ~ ~ lUlanufacturing |~ ~ ~ 1 9 Key Europe I I Japan FIGURE 17 Shifts in leadership momentum.

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AIR TECHNOLOGYTHE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 159 300 Annual Operations (Mlilione) _ O ~ 200 100 1981 85 Year FIGURE 18 U.S. aircraft operations forecast. - 90 2000 FIGURE 19 EMS system integration console. OFF - _r.

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TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY i/ - _ ~ sat_ FIGURE 20 Advanced cockpit design. Air Fares Public ~ Airlines Manufacturers' t~ cOrSitnSe Airframes Purchase Engines _ Lease Equipment ~ Operation Air System Modernization Government Users FIGURE 21 The final consideration.