Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page 138
Air TecArlology
.
Tle Transport Velicle army
Its Development Environment
JOHN E. STEINER
Virtually every commercial or military airplane operational today could
be technologically superseded by the end of this century World com-
petition is a forcing factor, but affordability and planning imply re-
straints. The latest generation of civil transports reflects a significant
incremental step into twenty-first century technology. As the techno-
logical building blocks offering new efficiencies are validated, the in-
tegration task and dependency upon it will increase. In addition, air
vehicles must become integrated into a new, advanced-technology, na-
tional and international airspace system to attain the important efficiency
and safety advantages of total four-dimensional (4-D) strategic control.
TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET NEEDS
The spiraling price of fuel subsequent to the 1973 oil embargo was
one of several major influences that had an impact on the direction of
jet transport developments during the past decade. The price of fuel as
an element of direct operating cost for the trunk airlines is shown in
Figure 1. Economic distortions of this magnitude, of course, put much
greater priority on the readiness of advancements, contributing to sig-
nificantly higher orders of fuel efficiency. This signaled a fundamental
change to both development and operational objectives, which until that
time had been largely oriented toward performance. This is not to say
that earlier jet transport developments had not produced efficiency ad-
vancements. Fuel efficiency has improved at a very steady rate of about
138
OCR for page 139
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
139
30 percent per decade over the jet transport's 30-year development
history, as illustrated in Figure 2.
The trend line in Figure 2 encompasses a broad spectrum of airplane
sizes, and thus scale has little to do with its continued slope. Fuel cost
was not the issue that established this trend; however, fuel efficiency
has always been highly significant for competitive range performance
gains. It is expected that the efficiency trend will continue and, more
likely, will increase as the shaded area of the illustration indicates.
More frequently than not, a technological gain will be countered by
any number of offsetting factors in its environment- for example, the
delay trends at major airports (see Figure 34.
This problem actually preceded the energy crisis by nearly a decade
as air transportation's growth accelerated so very rapidly in the 1960s
and 1970s. Rapid growth creates its own constraints, as was the case
with the imposition of noise regulations and other environmental con-
straints. However, in terms of today's problems, delays have been greatly
exacerbated by airline and hub interchange patterns that evolved with
the deregulation of airline competition. Today, with more and smaller
aircraft operating from an expanded system of hub interchanges, traffic
delays account for as much as a 50 percent nonproductive fuel burn on
some shorter route segments. The technology that will virtually eliminate
traffic delays is in hand. This vital aspect of aviation technology is dis-
cussed later. For now, however, it is well to emphasize that deregulation
itself is an indirect contributor to technological changes. Nonetheless,
it has become a very powerful contributing influence on the general
direction in which jet transport technologies are headed, and, for that
matter, on the direction in which the U.S. industry may be headed.
The cost of labor is one of the major competitive problems for pre-
deregulation trunk carriers, as Figure 4 illustrates. It is readily apparent
from this chart that airline salaries have increased substantially faster
than has inflation or the revenue yielded from air fare structures. There
is ample evidence that low-cost air fare competition is the most sub-
stantial force driving the trunks toward lower cost and more efficient
and productive operations.
In like manner these needs have shaped vehicle development objec-
tives—i.e., major improvement in operating efficiency, reduced crew
workloads, and growth to 4-D navigation—launching the most recent
aircraft types now in service. In this sense deregulation has reinforced
operating efficiences as the principal development objective. Devel-
opment of the Flight Management System (EMS) was accelerated in
recognition of airline efficiency needs. However, the readiness of con-
tributing component and systems technology preceded the Deregulation
OCR for page 140
140
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
Act by more than a decade. In fact, significant aspects of FMS's de-
velopment are rooted in U.S. supersonic transport (SST) work of the
1960s. The FMS evolved from the SST and other independent programs,
which were generally oriented toward automation of flight management
and control functions. The relationship of these efforts is show in Figure
5.
The FMS is a fully integrated digital electronic system that provides
previously unavailable performance optimization and flight management
capabilities. The automation and integration of flight control and per-
formance management permit a substantial improvement in direct op-
erating costs, primarily by reducing fuel burn and also by reducing the
cockpit crew requirement. This is a very significant advancement with
respect to today's efficiency needs, but more importantly the FMS tech-
nology represents a vital step toward twenty-first century potentials.
Some other evolutionary improvements can be expected to appear over
the rest of the 1980s, but most of the new products to be offered in this
decade are already known and will be competing for the world open-
lift market (see Figure 6~.
Several facts are crucial to future U.S. developments with respect to
this forecast. First, there is a 40 to 60 percent split in the open market
that emphasizes a huge expansion cycle by foreign airlines. Developing
nations are expected to form the higher growth segments in this expan-
sion. The second point may be more critical. The earlier timing of foreign
market growth will significantly stimulate foreign industry in readying
advancements that will be applied to designs for the next generation of
jet transports. The U.S. industry could become quite vulnerable in this
respect, since an advantageous momentum in developing the visible
potentials could technically supersede today's products by the end of
this century.
DESIGN BUILDING BLOCKS
The design advancements for twenty-first century transports are em-
bodied in a very large number of potentials that are quite visible to all
of the world's aircraft builders. The development of these advancements
will doubtless bring vast changes to aeronautical reality as it is known
today. Nonetheless, the potentials are so numerous that selectivity among
the development options or combinations thereof is itself a problem,
and fairly complex, in that the twenty-first century potential is founded
on integration complexities of far greater magnitude than those expe-
rienced in combining wing sweep with the axial-flow compressor some
four decades ago. The integrative aspect is discussed in more detail
OCR for page 141
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
141
later, but it should be emphasized here that integration considerations
become very apparent at a much earlier stage of development than they
did in the past.
The development possibilities among materials illustrate the selection
problem. The next generation of transports may well spring from a body
of composite technology that has progressed sufficiently to allow com-
posite application to most of the primary structure. We expect this to
be the case, with composites accounting for about 65 percent of dis-
tributed airframe weight. In this event aluminum use would diminish to
about 11 percent (compared with 80 percent in the Boeing 767~. How-
ever, advanced aluminum developments indicate that another scenario
could develop. The options are shown in Figure 7.
The aluminum alternative (right side of Figure 7) suggests that this
material's use could amount to over half of the total distributed weight,
dropping the projected composite applications to about 25 percent. This
alternative scenario developed from the promising advancements in alu-
minum-lithium alloys, which indicate that aluminum density can be re-
duced some 3 percent by using a 1 percent lithium addition. The sig-
nificance of this development is perhaps better understood by recognizing
that the empty weight of the 747 could be reduced by about 11,000
pounds through the substitution of this material. Some other promising
materials developments currently receiving attention are shown in Fig-
ure 8.
In this figure the general materials development boundaries are iden-
tified as we presently understand them. The integrative potentials of
these or of other materials systems or hybrids with other advancement
areas will shape the ultimate design selections. From a fuel efficiency
standpoint, however, as much as one-third of the expected improvement
potential may be derived from new materials.
Generally the advancement pattern of aircraft development has fea-
tured some basis for advancement in a current development that forms
a launching pad for a new generation of technology. The all-digital EMS
implies this quality because of the multifunction integrations involved.
Its development has unquestionably facilitated our ability to capitalize
on other avionics-related potentials. Full-scale active control is a natural
follow-on. The "full-scale" is emphasized to distinguish future devel-
opments from the lesser active control developments known today.
Figure 9 depicts a possible future active control configuration in com-
parison with today's baseline. The wing is moved forward; the normal
center of gravity moves aft; and, as noted, the horizontal stabilizer is
significantly reduced in size. At cruise it will carry little or no load as
compared with the large downloading on current designs. The full-scale
OCR for page 142
42
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
active control development could produce a 5 to 10 percent improvement
in efficiency. However, the introduction of artificial flight stability would
necessarily emphasize the significance of electronics reliability and sys-
tems redundancy to a level well beyond the sizable dictates in today's
technology. The air vehicle is rapidly assuming an "electronic system"
orientation, and virtually all of the advancement potentials (including
the materials advances just discussed) have similar fault-protection con-
cerns.
As the air vehicle assumes a fundamental change in orientation, it
can embody some new design concepts that might enhance specific air
transport jobs, which will present an exciting possibility for designers.
An example would be civil adaptions of the variable camber wing con-
cept shown in Figure 10. Wing flaps and slats have been used for years
in securing variable camber and wing cord extension. Most applications
have involved drag-producing external structures and considerable weight.
There may be some commercial transport applications in which cord
extension is not as critical. In such cases an internal hydromechanical,
computer-operated, low-drag system of camber variations as illustrated
in Figure 10 may prove attractive.
The possibilities of mechanically induced laminar flow-control (LFC)
concepts, such as illustrated in the upper portion of Figure 11, have
been known and demonstrated in test configurations for many years.
Practical solutions for the problems associated with mechanical LFC
fabrication and maintenance have proven very elusive, and until recently
the concept had retreated from the forefront of aeronautical thinking.
However, since LFC answers could produce an exceedingly significant
20 to 30 percent efficiency gain, world interest in advancing both me-
chanical solutions and natural-flow improvements is again rising.
As with the variable camber wing or some of the other possible civil
transport potentials, a "second look" at earlier concepts is premised on
the synergy of a totally new environment of advanced electronics and
electrics, the evolutionary aspect of which is shown in Figure 12. The
development trend is leading toward a completely different concept in
flight control for civil transports and also toward vastly differing rela-
tionships between the flight crew, the air vehicle, and the air system in
which both operate. The all-electric developments imply a substantial
reduction and possibly a future total elimination of hydraulics and con-
trol cables, resulting in significant weight savings. It should be remem-
bered that weight reductions translate into a smaller vehicle for a given
job, thus reducing the cost of manufacture and acquistion. Elimination
of cables also means that the familiar cockpit yoke will disappear, bring-
ing different geometry considerations into the overall cockpit design.
OCR for page 143
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
143
Electronics-based advancements are key in attaining future air trans-
portation potentials, and they have evidenced a growing significance in
vehicle improvements made thus far. Rapid growth in avionics devel-
opments is, of course, directly related to the digital avionics advance-
ments discussed earlier. Many of the potentials illustrated in Figure 12
are in advanced development stages now. The insertion of digital pro-
cessors into sensory and control systems is also one of the more current
refinements that has been utilized in propulsion system developments.
Commercial jet engine advancements have produced a 40 percent im-
provement in specific fuel consumption over the last two decades, with
more of the efficiency thus far centered on high bypass-ratio (BPR)
engine developments. These trends are illustrated in Figure 13.
While engine efficiency improvements are expected to continue at
about 20 percent per decade, future engines may not much resemble
those familiar today. Steady improvements in design and materials ap-
pear to have made future gains less dependent on bypass ratios. The
BPR increase trend in fact has a negative side in that it increases nacelle
weight and, of course, contributes to a mismatch between takeoff and
cruise thrust requirements. This does not mean that the high-bypass
turbojet has reached its improvement capacity. It does, however, in-
dicate that progress toward an unducted fan or turboprop is starting to
look more attractive. Once design considerations move toward a geared
cycle engine, the number of possible alternatives increases significantly.
We should expect that some form of propellerlike machine (a propfan
or new-generation turboprop) will attain operational status before the
end of this century.
The many possibilities in the propulsion area amply demonstrate that
the potentials in aeronautics will clearly outweigh the resources available
for development. One of the most difficult tasks over the next few years
will be to make the right selections and to define an orderly development
plan. Designer attention is always focused on the critical mass of tech-
nology that is available. The building blocks discussed above are forming
a new critical mass for future design focus. The relationship with present-
day technology is shown in Figure 14.
The building block "aiming points" (right side of Figure 14) are shown
in relationship to a baseline (lower left) representing the 1970 efficiency
level achieved by the 727-200 technology. The "improved product ef-
ficiency levels" indicate the 1980 decade's technology gains that are
incorporated into the latest new aircraft types. At each level, the 1970
baseline and beyond, a critical mass of available new technology was
ready, and based in each were distinctive advancement threads leading
directly into the generation ahead.
OCR for page 144
44
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
Much of current industry attention is focused on the smaller-sized
transports in the 100- to 180-passenger range. However, it should be
noted that airplanes for a given job have become larger over time. It
can be expected that the established capacity growth trend will continue.
Economics of scale are involved and, of course, so is the predicted
growth in revenue passenger and freight ton miles. This is mentioned
because each step of increase has involved additional considerations and
solutions for passenger accommodations both in the air vehicle and the
terminal area (for loading and unloading) and also in airport access and
egress. Fundamentally there is no technical limitation to size, but there
will be a continued need for technical solutions and infrastructure changes
to accommodate increased size. This need is illustrated by the current
generation of transport growth potentials shown in Figure 15.
The cross section shown in Figure 15 is that of the 747, which already
has a 500-passenger high-density configuration for the Japanese do-
mestic market. The illustration shows that the more conventional pas-
senger payload for this airplane type could nearly triple by expansion
to a full double-deck configuration. All airline markets differ, and while
many airlines are absorbed in smaller aircraft solutions, others are ex-
ploring potentials of the nature illustrated. Obviously airport infrastruc-
ture, including the feasibility of double-deck access/egress systems, would
have to be considered very seriously in such situations.
READINESS: A NATIONAL PROBLEM
One of the most perplexing problems facing the United States is our
ability to exploit these cutting edges of technology in a manner that will
most benefit the nation's economic and national security. In the arena
of global high-technology competitions, these two objectives are in-
creasingly viewed as being one and the same. The United States is
uncomfortable with this view, partly because of our preferred divisions
in public and private sector responsibilities. I am convinced, however,
that in terms of our national understanding of technology, the greater
difficulty lies not so much in areas of substance as in the advancement
chain itself, namely, the progression from (1) fundamental knowledge
(research) to (2) technology validation (readiness) to (3) product ap-
plications (production).
This advancement chain has two critical stages beyond the basic re-
search that produces fundamental knowledge and reveals new techno-
logical potentials. These recognitions come from multitudinous efforts
and sources: government, academic, and industrial research facilities in
many countries. I do not believe that the greatest area of U.S. national
OCR for page 145
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
145
discomfort is with this stage, or even with the last, in which technology
exploitation occurs. The American industrial system has proven to be
very effective here, providing that technological risks have been reduced
to acceptable levels. To my mind, the most critical problems are centered
at the midphase technology validation. U.S. advancement is much in
jeopardy because we have become a nation completely at odds with the
requirements that this stage entails. The requirements of technology
validation are as follows:
· Midphase is the most critical, lengthy, and expensive part of the technology
process.
· Risks are identified and reduced to product acceptable levels before a pro-
duction commitment is made.
· "Validated" advancements can frequently be exploited as improvements in
current product line.
· A "critical mass" of advancements may justify a new program start.
The major difficulty is that the validation and application readiness
of any advancement take a great deal of time and money plus carefully
orchestrated continuity of effort (see, for example, the laser gyro system
development history shown in Figure 16~.
This strap-down development is a key component of the EMS ad-
vancement described earlier. Its application readiness became highly
significant to the efficiency gains made by the latest generation of trans-
port aircraft. The 20-year program of development and application read-
iness surrounding this one component was a multithreaded effort that
built the body of technology and readiness acceptability on which its
production commitment rests. There is no satisfactory way to circumvent
the process or the need. However, today many people in national lead-
ership positions wielding tremendous influence over technology do not
understand the process or the need, which are shown in the following
list.
· Readiness attainment is absolutely vital if production program costs and
risks are to be acceptable.
· The task starts with identified potentials (civil view), not with identified
mission requirements (military view).
· Producibility is part of the readiness task. Attainment involves the entire
manufacturing/supplier base.
· Readiness is the least understood link in the innovative chain.
Because the readiness attainment process is not understood by many in
positions of national leadership, we have self-imposed barriers to read-
iness that diminish the U.S. capacity to innovate. I believe that most of
...
OCR for page 146
146
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
these barriers are unintended constraints, but they are nonetheless real.
For example, in aircraft developments today there are requirements for
an "audit trail," linking readiness tasks to an identified military mission
need a specific weapon system.
This one requirement places a top-downward constraint on what is
logically the reverse a bottom-upward process of building. Seldom is
it fully recognized that failures, delays, or cost overruns in weapons
system developments may have been preordained because constraints
of this nature short-circuited the midphase. An adequate job requires
more time, effort, and money than many in the United States would
care to admit. However, readiness attainment is crucial for successful
production to occur, and other nations have been willing to pay its price.
This is evident from the shifts in aeronautical leadership positions that
are displayed in Figure 17.
Despite slowed momentum, the United States still has the outstanding
foundation for aeronautical attainment in terms of the breadth of its
high technology in computers, propulsion, electronics, materials, and
other areas, which will be united at the cutting edge of future air vehicle
technology. However, it must be kept in mind that no matter how
impressive this foundation appears today, it is vulnerable to the pace
and continuity of foreign advancements.
A NEW AIR ENVIRONMENT
The twenty-first century potentials for aircraft, of course, will not be
realized without modernization within the air system as well. In this
area there is little doubt that the United States has assumed a leadership
position, and for good reason. Today the United States operates the
busiest air traffic control system in the world, and it does so with a
remarkable level of efficiency and safety, given the workload. The U.S.
national airway system today can be summarized as follows:
· Air traffic control and air navigation
233,000 aircraft
3,200 airports under system control (12,800 others uncontrolled)
126 million aircraft operations annually (four each second)
· Mixture of old and new electronic control equipment
The current system has evolved piecemeal over the 40-year expansion
in U.S. domestic air travel. As it functions today, it is expensive to
operate and maintain and has little room for the expansion that future
traffic growth will require. The limited capacity for expansion is partic-
ularly sensitive since system saturations at key airports are already a
. ~ .
OCR for page 147
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
147
serious factor, as was noted earlier. When combined with operations
projections (shown in Figure 18) that indicate present traffic loads will
more than double, it became clear that modernization would entail a
total, phased restructuring of the system.
Airline carrier domestic enplanements by the year 2000 will increase
by more than 120 percent, and, of course, this will place extreme pres-
sures on the 27 key U.S. airports that now handle about 70 percent of
all domestic passengers. Also, very few new airports are expected to be
built by the turn of the century. The National Airspace System Plan
(NASP), initiated in 1982, which will bring U.S. airspace into the twenty-
first century, was developed with the following objectives:
· Increase in control capacity (doubled by year 2000)
· Increase in airports controlled (410,000 aircraft operating from 4,000 con-
trolled airports)
· Elimination of serious delays (4-D navigation)
· Improvement of safety
· Reduction of system and user operating costs
It is important to note that the many years of effort that went into the
plan's formation involved the entire aviation community, and the de-
tailed phasing of implemention has been carefully coordinated with the
airspace user. The fundamental elements of NASP are as follows:
· A national computerized integrated system
Traffic control
Host computer
Solid-state radar
Automated data link
Integrated national telecommunications network
Microwave landing systems
· Approximate cost: $10 billion over 10 years
· Eventual interface with most other world areas
The transition and evolution to a year 2000 system architecture that
incorporates all the elements noted above are challenging under any
circumstances. However, bringing the new U.S. air system to reality is
a task something equivalent to the Apollo program. It is all the more
challenging in that phasing and the many integrations it involves must
not interfere with the around-the-clock operation of the present traffic
control system.
The integrative challenges are enormous, and for this reason there
will be an overall systems engineering and integration contractor selected
to oversee the total effort. By the year 2000 we can expect to see
computers in the air talking to computers on the ground to control
OCR for page 148
148
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
navigation. In this respect the revolutionary changes wrought by digital
electronics in aircraft systems and flight management are also extended
into integration with the air system's ground-based elements in all 50
states, territories, and oceanic regions. The U.S. plan has been endorsed
by the governments of Canada and Mexico. Eventually, it is hoped that
the American system will find compatible interfaces with other world
areas.
INTEGRATION: A NEW DISCIPLINE
If anything, this brief look at the cutting edge of aeronautical tech-
nology tells us that the sum of twenty-first-century potentials will be
derived from their integrations. Integration tasks will focus on three
fundamental areas: (1) the air system, (2) the air vehicle, and (3) the
airport environment (access and egress). Much will rest on how well we
understand integration and its implications in a conceptual sense, on
how thoroughly it is explored in risk validation, and on how efficient
and effective the methodologies and processes employed for this are.
Integration might be seen as a new discipline, considering what is not
known about it at present and what this may imply for the more tra-
ditional aeronautical technologies and processes. There is little doubt
that the new digital electronics orientation of the air vehicle has caused
us to reconsider design concepts in a completely different manner. The
familiar tools and processes for research and analysis flight testing,
simulation, and wind tunnels may also assume different significance.
Integrative aspects of the cutting edge, for example, could amplify
the role of simulation in design, testing, and verification over the coming
years. This is not to say that wind tunnels, flight testing, and flight
demonstration will become less significant. It does mean, however, that
the new vehicle orientation would emphasize digital-based flight simu-
lation techniques as excellent tools for detecting integration risks in-
herent in many of the new digital-based advancements. Flight simulation
is a powerful development tool that will find many significant engi-
neering analysis, development, and test applications as a better under-
standing of integration is achieved.
Perhaps the first appreciation of this was gained when it became
apparent that the subsystem integration necessary for development of
the EMS concept also required the integration of the somewhat com-
partmentalized testing capabilities into a cohesive, ground-based sim-
ulation of a flying test-bed environment, far more complex in total than
any simulation previously envisioned. Put another way, it was recognized
that having "the right stuff" in on-board computer software is as vital
OCR for page 150
150
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
changes that are integrating the processes of advancement and those of
production.
The trend of the future is toward integration; the reason is afforda-
bility, a problem of both national and international dimensions. It will
demand that the compatibility of technologies, processes, and people
be thoroughly understood. This is the challenge, and we stand at the
cutting edge of its solution.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT The author gratefully acknowledges the contributions of
others, especially that of L. K. Montle.
1.5 _ 2.5
1.2 _ 2
Cam per 0 9
Available
Seat
Kilometer 0.6
0.3
o
J ~
_ 1.5
Cents per
Available
Seat Mile
_ 1
_ 0-5
o
Fuel
_ Crew
I.,, ~~ . ~ - ~-~
' ~ _ . Maintenance '--a
Other ~~_, I_ ~
(Depreciation,
Rentals,
Insurance)
l l l l l l l l l l l l
1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82
Source: CAB Form 41, Schedule P5
U.S. trunks, domestic operations
FIGURE 1 Influence of fuel price direct operating cost elements (constant 1982 dollars).
OCR for page 151
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
40
30
Fuel
Efficiency
Seat
km/ 20
Liter
10
110
100
- Fuel
Efficiency
(Seat
Stat
_ mi/
U.S. gal.)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
F~GuRE 2 Fuel efficiency trends.
20 -
Airports
Experiencing
Average Peak-Hour
Delays of 10
30 Minutes/Operation
or More
o
1973 1 985
FIGURE 3 Delay trends at 25 major airports.
151
757-200
/ 2.
_'2''.2'2'.'. '''
747-300 i/
747-200B IncrGW 747-100B~ ~
747-200B ~ ~6 ~ 767-300
737-200 Adv ~ at\ ~ 737-300
~ 707-320~,~ ~ 767-200
-
_ - ~ 747 SP
~ ~ \
~727- 100
-a 707-1 20B
707-320
~ 727-200 Adv
·1000 nmi Trin
O _1__ 1 1 1
1 960 70 80 90 2000
Initial Service Date (Year)
With Today's
System
With Current
System
Developments
With Advanced
~ Air Traffic
2000 ~ Management
OCR for page 152
152
Index
(1970 - 100)
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
Total Compensation
- (Salary and Benefits)
CPI
- Passenger Yield (System)
-
-
-
1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
Source: Air Transport Association of America.
FIGURE 4 Total compensation per airline employee versus consumer price index and
yield. Reprinted with permission.
1968 1 1969 1 1970 1 1971 T 1972 1 1973 1 1974 1 1975 1 1976 1 1977 .
I I I T I I I I l
707 AFCS | Sensors ~ 7X71Flight - Errol Developments
1 ~1 ~ 1\ ~
1978
1979
Industry Participation
Automatic Flight Triplex Digital AFCS
Management Flight Tests
Boeing Independent Developments
Strapdown
707 Autoland Inertial Sensor
~ !~'
| DOT/FAA Inertial \
| Smoothing ) r
r SS1 ~ > I ~ L
- 1 -
Digital\ 7X7 Development 757/767 FM:
Systemy /
~ 1/~ 1 : V ~
B737-NASA 515 Program >
I ~ ~ Full Flight Regime
T F Advanced Display Autothrottle (747)
| DO / AA and Flight Controls ~ ~ I Perforn lance M anagement
· 1 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 '~ |Compu ter (727/ 737)
Control Wheel Automatic Flight Functions Cat lil Autoland Digital Air Data
Steering (737) Introduced Commercially Autorollout (747) Computer (737/747)
FIGURE 5 EMS evolution.
OCR for page 153
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
3,500
3,000
2,500
ASkms 29000
(Billions)] 500
1,000
500
o
153
2,000
1,600
ASMs 1,200
(Billions)
800
400
O.
1 970
Open Market: $167 ($116). Billion
(1983 Constant Dollars),
Actual ', Forecast
Total Lift
Requirement ~,~//~//////~/,
Current on Hand and ~nr~
~ //////////
With
: Current on Hand and
on Order With ~ _
Retirement J
Replacement—
.
$58 ($38)'
Billion
75 80 85
Year End
90 95
Note: Does not include U.S.S.R.-built jetliners
Includes $6.7 ($4.0). billion freighter market, passenger market through 1995
is $160.3 ($1 12) billion in 1983 dollars
Market through 1992 shown in parenthesis ( )
FIGURE 6 Commercial airplane market—world open-lift requirements, 1983 to 1995.
65%
(Potential)
54%
(Potential)
I ~ To
8%
I=Titanium PI Composites _ Misc. _ Steel ~ Aluminum
25%
FIGURE 7 Potentials for 1990 subsonic airplane materials weight
distribution.
OCR for page 154
154
50
40
Potential
Structural 30
Weight
Saving,
(Percent) 20
10
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
747 Baseline
O
1970 80 90 2000
FIGURE 8 Future structural materials trend for potential weight savings.
Baseline
ACT EMU
FIGURE 9 Active control technology (ACT).
10
OCR for page 155
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
Variable Camber
Envelope
Lift
Ma
Maneuver
Cruise
'/
Drag ~
FIGURE 10 Computerized airfoil camber control.
Laminar Flow
- Al l ll l lal r low
Or?.. - ~- . - .. -
I'-' ~ ~
Laminar Flow
LFC Wing With Suction
_ Laminar Floe
Laminar Prow - —1
Natural Laminar Flow
FIGURE 11 Laminar flow.
155
Turbulent
Flow
OCR for page 156
156
Performance
737
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
Next Generation Aircraft _' · ;11 Electric
~ Controls
''- Flat Panel Displays
- ' - Microwave Landing
757/767 - ' System
All Digital - Flight '- Fiber Optics
Management System _'
(FMS) ~
~ Full Autoland
747 ~
Digits' Air Data
Autonav
727 ~ · Inertial Nav
707~ - ATC Radar Beacon
· Cat I Autoland
· Radio Nav
1950 60 70 80 90
FIGURE 12 Avionic system evolution.
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
(Ib/hr/ib) 0 55
0.50
0.45
0.40
Conventional
bofans
Bypass Ratio
0 2 5 10 20 40 as
Or Hybrid Configurations-
/ Geared and Ungeared,
/ Ducted and Unducted
| / Conventional
Turboprops
0 5 10
Diameter (ft)
15 20
FIGURE 13 Specific fuel consumption engine size trends.
OCR for page 157
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE
157
I ,- I
i'
Air transportation
system benefit
·Fuel efficiency
·Economics
Approximate
727-200 efficiency
levels _
[,,,"'-
_'
Aiming Point
Efficiency Levels
· Composite Primary
Structures
Improved Product
Efficiency Levels
· Engines
· Wing
· Electronics
· Structures
· Full-Scale Active
Controls
· Advanced:
· Engines
· Electrics
· Electronics
1980 1985
FIGURE 14 Technology improvement.
l ~ ~ ~ ~ Y ~ ~ ~
rat
/ 1 At- ~ . 1 ~ ~ 1 1 \
,/~ ~ - \
== 1~ 1 C _, 1 1
_ r ~ ~ ~ I 'I
1990 1995 2000
GN
EE rTiT EE
| 1 1 ~ Gray - ~ ~
'<\:L
N<----- ~ /
in.
370 Seats 600-700 Seats 1000 Seats
FIGURE 15 Growth potential.
OCR for page 158
158
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
. . . . .
Theoretical Development
~. A..'' >_
Laboratory Development and Evaluation l
Technology Application l
,.,,, . .~_
· Processes
· Software
· Producibility
· Testing
I Advanced Gyro Development l
·Math Models
· Materials
· Block Design
I 1 1 1 1 1 ~
62 64 66 68 70 72 74
FIGURE 16 Laser gyro development.
Aircraft
Capabilities
Basic
R - earch
Technology
Refinement
Am.- ~
r Systems Development and Applications
I Flight Testing (14 Aircraft Programs)
1 1 1 1 , , , 1 1 1
76 78 80 82
1 950s 19608 1 970s 19808
Product |~ ~ ~ ~
lUlanufacturing |~ ~ ~ 1 9
Key
Europe
I I Japan
FIGURE 17 Shifts in leadership momentum.
OCR for page 159
AIR TECHNOLOGY—THE TRANSPORT VEHICLE 159
300
Annual
Operations
(Mlilione)
_
O ~
200
100
1981 85
Year
FIGURE 18 U.S. aircraft operations forecast.
-
90 2000
FIGURE 19 EMS system integration console.
OFF -
_r.
OCR for page 160
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
i/
-
_ ~
sat_
FIGURE 20 Advanced cockpit design.
Air Fares
· Public ~ · Airlines
Manufacturers' t~ cOrSitnSe
· Airframes · Purchase
· Engines _ · Lease
· Equipment ~ · Operation
Air System
Modernization
· Government
· Users
FIGURE 21 The final consideration.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
transportation technology
