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Catting Edge Necrologies National Academy of . ~ - . ~ nglneerlng NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D. C. 1984

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National Academy Press ~ 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW ~ Washington, DC 20418 The National Academy of Engineering is a private organization established in 1964. It shares in the responsibility given the National Academy of Sciences under a congressional charter granted in 1863 to advise the federal government on questions of science and technology. This collaboration is implemented through the National Research Council. The National Academy of Engineering recognizes distinguished engineers, sponsors en- gineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, and encourages education and re search. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Cutting edge technologies Papers of the Symposium on Cutting Edge Technologies convened in 1983 by the National Academy of Engineering. 1. High technology Congresses. I. National Academy of Engineering. II. Symposium on Cutting Edge Technologies (1983: Washington, D.C.) T6.C88 1984 620 84-19007 ISBN 0-309-03489:2 Printed in the United States of America

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Symposium Steering Committee Chairman N. BRUCE HANNAY, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering; Vice-President, Research and Patents, Bell Laboratories (retired) Members RALPH E. GOMORY, Vice-President and Director of Research, IBM Corporation RALPH HARDY, Director, Life Sciences Division, E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Inc. MILTON PIKARSKY, Director, Transportation Research, IIT Research Institute ALBERT R. C. WESTWOOD, Corporate Director, Research and Development, Martin Marietta Corporation . . . adz

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Contents Preface. Introduction Ralph E. Gomory I. Computers of lye Future / ~ Ultra Large Scale Integration and Beyond lames D. Meind! The Evolution of Computer Systems. . Herbert Schorr Software and Unorthodox Architectures: Where Are We Headed? . Michael L. Dertouzos Il. leg Frontiers in Biotechr~oJogy / 37 Introduction Ralph Hardy v 3 .. 21 27 39

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v! Biochemical Engineering Solutions to Biotechnological Problems Charles L. Cooney Biotechnology and Agricultural Research for Crop Improvement . Charles ]. Arntzen Biotechnology for Health Care ]. Paul Burnett CONTENTS ........ 42 ... 52 IlI. Advances in Stractura/Materials / 77 Introduction 79 Albert R. C. Westwooc! Rapid Solidification Technology Bernard H. Kear Exploring the Limits of Polymer Properties: Structural Components From Rigid- and FIexible-Chain Polymers Roger S. Porter High-Technology Ceramics Albert R. C. Westwood and Jan P. Skainy Transportation Tecir~o~ogy / 133 ....... 86 .. 109 . ll7 Introduction 135 Milton Pikarsky Air Technology: The Transport Vehicle and Its Development Environment . John E. Steiner Earth Walls. . James K. Mitchell and James G. CoRin .138 ...... 161 Technological Opportunities and the Railroad Industry. . . 181 William ]. Harris, Jr. Biographical Sketches 187

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Preface - Rapid change is occurring in many scientific, engineering, and tech- nological fields. As the rate of change accelerates, specialists in partic- ular fields find it more difficult to keep abreast of the increase in knowl- edge and technique. It is even more difficult for scientists and engineers to understand how developments outside their fields of specialty are likely to affect what they do and how they do their work. The symposium on Cutting Edge Technologies, convened by the National Academy of Engineering in connection with its Annual Meeting in November 1983, was organized to provide members of the Academy and a wider audience interested in the present state of development of various cutting edge technologies with an overview of the general trends taking place in a number of fields. In a symposium such as this, it was impossible to address the problems of technological development in a comprehensive way, and hence a limited number of technologies were identified for discussion, recog- nizing that there are many others that could just as easily have been candidate topics for a symposium. The topics selected range from those that have been consistently in the forefront of national attention to those that have had less exposure but are nonetheless central to the national welfare and industrial competitiveness of the United States. The sym- posium topics that were selected include those dealing with the com- puters of the future and new frontiers in biotechnology two areas that have been the center of much media as well as professional attention- and those on advances in structural materials and transportation tech- nology two vital areas that have received less public attention. . . V11

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V111 PREFACE We hope that the papers in this volume can place in perspective the present state of development of individual technologies and how they are likely to evolve over the next several decades. If the individual and collective effect of the papers also communicates the vitality of the multiple streams of technological development taking place, then a ma- jor goal of the symposium will have been achieved. Just as importantly, however, the collection of papers in this volume foreshadows the chang- ing technological environment that will embrace our society in the years ahead. ROBERT M. WHITE President National Academy of Engineering