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APPENDIX A: Spent-Fuel Trar~sportation Analysis for the National Academy of Sciences S. C. Mc Guire, P. E. Johnson, S. M. Gibson, and D. S. Joy Oak Ridge National Laboratories April 1981 Oak Ridge and Sandia National Laboratories, as con- \ tractors for the Department of Energy, in support of the work of the panel provided this analysis at the panel's direction and do not necessarily endorse its conclusions. The ORNL Spent Fuel Logistics Model (SFLM) has been used to make a number of logistics calculations for this analysis. These calculations show the projected movement of spent-fuel assemblies from operating and planned nuclear reactor sites both to illustrative permanent repositories and away-from-reactor (AFR) storage facil- ities (Figures A.1 through A.12). In addition, the number of annual spent-fuel shipments, the transportation distances, the costs in 1981 dollars, and the cask fleet requirements were itemized for transporting the spent fuel from the reactors to the storage facilities. The results covered the period 1986 through 2004. Information used as input to the SFLM was supplied by the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) and their subcontractor, the S. M. Stoller Corporation. This information is based on utility responses to the 1980 DOE spent-fuel survey (Ref: DOE/SR-0007, Spent Fuel Storage Requirements and Update of DOE/NE-0002, March 1981). Two general types of source-to-destination configura- tions have been considered. First, it was assumed that spent fuel would be shipped from the reactor sites to a single storage facility located in either the southeast- ern, Gulf Coast, or western part of the United States. For each of these locations, it was further assumed that the spent fuel would be moved in two ways. The first employed both rail and truck casks; the second used only truck casks. In all cases where both rail and truck casks are utilized, it was assumed that those reactors that have direct rail access to their fuel storage pool 133

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156 TABLE A.7 Relative Amount of Fuel Shipped by Rail to a Single Storage Facility Year Amount (wt% ) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 36.2 19.4 53.5 28.3 33.4 49.6 43.3 53.3 69.5 61.7 62.4 68.7 64.4 67.3 71.8 71.4 70.4 75.2 71.1 TABLE A.8 Relative Amount of Spent Fuel Shipped by Rail to Regional Storage Facilities Year Amount (wt % ) . . Western Southeastern Midwestern 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 100.0 100.0 100 .0 T00 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 86.9 76.7 72.0 82.5 83.7 84.0 84.6 32.1 16.5 76.3 21.1 17.1 41.1 22.7 37.5 66.8 42.8 50.6 65.1 51.3 63.0 75.2 65.8 66.8 75.0 67.4 55.4 23.0 39.2 34.0 39.5 46.4 53.7 58.4 66.5 67.8 64.8 66.4 69.5 68.3 69.7 72.9 69.3 72.8 70.6

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158 TABLE A.10 Cask Fleet Requirements for Shipping Spent Fuel to a Single Storage Facility Using Truck Casks Only Southeastern Gulf Coast Western Facility Facility Facility Year (No. of Casks) (No. of Casks) (No. of Casks) 1986 5 6 9 1987 11 12 21 1988 10 12 19 1989 23 27 43 1990 23 26 39 1991 21 25 3 7 1992 36 40 61 1993 40 43 66 1994 43 46 69 1995 63 68 100 1996 72 75 110 1997 73 77 113 1998 92 95 138 1999 108 112 162 2000 104 107 154 2001 133 137 195 2002 133 136 192 2003 135 137 191 2004 151 154 220 cask to reactor and shipment of loaded cask to receiving facility. 6. Estimated transportation costs for rail/truck (Table A.16) and trucks only (Table A.17) including both the carrier cost and a charge for leasing the shipping cask, in 1981 dollars. Most cost data are based on information that is approximately 3-4 years old (see D. _ . . . . . S. Joy, D. J. Hudson, and M. W. Anthonly, Logistics cnaracter~zation for Regional Spent Fuel Repository Concepts, ONWI-124, August 1980); the calculated cost was increased by 40 percent to account for inflation. Lease charges, after adjusting for inflation, were assumed to be $5040/day for a rail cask and $910/day for a truck cask. When shipping to multiple facilities, the average shipping distances are much smaller. This results in a considerable reduction in the cask fleet requirements and costs when compared with the case where a single storage facility is used (Table A.18). Shipping casks were assumed not to cross any regional boundary in the

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163 TABLE A.15 Transportation Distances and Costs of Shipping Spent Fuel to Regional Facilities Us ing Rail and Truck Casks Distance (mile x 10 ) Cost - Year Rail Truck ($ x 10~) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.22 0.29 0.32 0.36 0.46 0.48 0.61 0.60 0.65 0.68 0.15 0.54 0.43 1.05 0.93 0.84 1.26 1.26 1.01 1.53 1.70 1.65 1.98 2.43 2.29 2.45 2.72 2.49 2.94 . 1.8 5.3 5.2 11.1 10.8 10.9 16.8 19.2 19.5 28.3 33.8 35.0 41.9 51.4 50.3 62.4 63.0 63.9 70.9 TOTAL 5.24 29.65 601.5 multiple-facility runs. That is, a cask used to make shipments to the western storage facility would not be used to make any shipment to other facilities. If there is no further demand for this cask, it would stand idle. The large variation in transportation requirements for the various receiving facilities is a function of the particular set of reactors making shipments to that facility. Note on Cost Sensitivity: The most critical parameter in the cost equations is the average rail speed. The value used in these calculations for rail transport was 6 mph.

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166 TABLE A.18 Transportation Distances and Costs of Shipping Spent Fuel to Regional Facilities Using Truck Casks Only Distance 6 (mile x 10 ) Year Cost ($ x 10 ) = 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 TOTAL 0.19 0.65 0.75 1.43 1.43 1.55 2.21 2.52 2.51 3.61 4.40 4.65 5.41 6.77 6.68 8.07 8.16 8.41 9.26 78.66 1.9 5.2 5.3 11.4 10.9 11.0 17.0 19.1 19.7 28.5 33.6 34.7 41.7 50.7 49.3 61.1 61.2 62.3 69.7 594.3 l A change of a few miles per hour would have a major impact on rail transportation time and, hence, the number of casks required. Changing the average truck speed by about 5 mph, however, would only have a small impact on the number of-truck casks required. With the data used for those calculations, truck transport is somewhat less expensive than rail transport. If the average rail speed was increased by 1 mph, the relative economics of truck and rail shipments would be narrowly reversed. At 7 mph, rail transport would be less expensive, especially for shipments over 300 miles, and therefore cask leasing costs would decline.