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APPENDIX A: Spent-Fuel Trar~sportation Analysis for the National Academy of Sciences S. C. Mc Guire, P. E. Johnson, S. M. Gibson, and D. S. Joy Oak Ridge National Laboratories April 1981 Oak Ridge and Sandia National Laboratories, as con- \ tractors for the Department of Energy, in support of the work of the panel provided this analysis at the panel's direction and do not necessarily endorse its conclusions. The ORNL Spent Fuel Logistics Model (SFLM) has been used to make a number of logistics calculations for this analysis. These calculations show the projected movement of spent-fuel assemblies from operating and planned nuclear reactor sites both to illustrative permanent repositories and away-from-reactor (AFR) storage facil- ities (Figures A.1 through A.12). In addition, the number of annual spent-fuel shipments, the transportation distances, the costs in 1981 dollars, and the cask fleet requirements were itemized for transporting the spent fuel from the reactors to the storage facilities. The results covered the period 1986 through 2004. Information used as input to the SFLM was supplied by the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) and their subcontractor, the S. M. Stoller Corporation. This information is based on utility responses to the 1980 DOE spent-fuel survey (Ref: DOE/SR-0007, Spent Fuel Storage Requirements and Update of DOE/NE-0002, March 1981). Two general types of source-to-destination configura- tions have been considered. First, it was assumed that spent fuel would be shipped from the reactor sites to a single storage facility located in either the southeast- ern, Gulf Coast, or western part of the United States. For each of these locations, it was further assumed that the spent fuel would be moved in two ways. The first employed both rail and truck casks; the second used only truck casks. In all cases where both rail and truck casks are utilized, it was assumed that those reactors that have direct rail access to their fuel storage pool 133
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146 would ship by rail and those without this feature would ship by truck. Other calculations assumed that all spent fuel would be shipped from the reactor sites to one of three regional storage facilities that are open simultaneously to receive fuel. The three storage facilities were located in the southeastern, Midwestern, and western regions of the _ . . . . _ . . . . . United States. For the runs involving the regional facil- ities, the country was divided into three regions, and all fuel shipped from a reactor was sent to its respective storage facility. The western region was defined to include all reactors in the states of Washington, Oregon, California, and Arizona. The storage facility for this region was assumed to be located in the vicinity of Las Vegas, Nevada. The southeastern region includes reactors in the following states: Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. The storage facility for this region was assumed to be located at Barnwell, South Carolina. The midwestern region includes all other reactors, and the storage facility would be located at Morris, Illinois. AS with the single storage facility runs, the fuel was assumed to be moved by rail or truck in one case and only by truck in another. The tables in this appendix summarize the results of these logistics calculations. They include the following: 1. Listing of the number of spent-fuel assemblies that will be shipped annually from each reactor during the period 1 9P``i Phr~ah onna tm~h1" ~ ~ ~ ~ =~ _-v_ -~& ~vv~ ~ ~ ~- ~ ~ ^. ~ i . Only those 113 reactors that are projected to make a shipment are listed. The entries in this table take into account the capacity of the cask in which the shipment will be made. 2. The number of spent-fuel assemblies that would be moved annually to a single storage facility (Table A.2) and to the three regional facilities (Table A.3) between the years 1986 and 2004 and includes a breakdown by reactor type, i.e., PWR or BOOR. The source data indicate that no shipments would be required prior to 1986 and are based on the following assumptions: (a) Full core reserve would be maintained at each reactor (b) The utilities would expand their on-site storage capacity to its maximum extent by 1984; and (c) Firmly planned transshipments would take place.
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151 TABLE A.2 Number of Spent-Fuel Assemblies Shipped Annually to a Single Storage Facility Shipped Year PWR BWR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 TOTAL 228 472 199 897 830 588 1378 1448 1379' 2182 2443 2259 3034 3634 3427 4620 4540 4160 4689 - 42,407 168 478 826 1260 1148 1386 1648 1952 2406 3166 3664 4110 4674 5376 5192 6158 6224 6950 8118 64,904 A good approximation of the amount of heavy metal (MTU) in these shipments can be obtained by using the following conversion factors: and PWR = 0.4614 MTU/assembly, BWR = 0.18335 MTU/assembly. 3. The number of shipments needed to transport the number of assemblies to a single storage facility and to regional facilities. Two cases are shown here: one in which rail and truck casks are used (Tables A.4 and A.5)
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153 TABLE A.4 Annual Spent-Fuel Shipments to a Single Storage Facility Mixed Mode Year Rail Truck Truck Only 1986 11188 312 1987 13575 711 1988 29288 612 1989 411053 1527 1990 44916 1404 1991 58635 1281 1992 901214 2202 1993 1211110 2424 1994 166760 2582 1995 2171385 3765 1996 2481593 4275 1997 2731348 4314 1998 3221857 5371 1999 3962030 6322 2000 4021677 6023 2001 5142145 7699 2002 5022262 7652 2003 5321903 7655 2004 5752480 8748 and one in which only truck casks are used (Table A.4 and A.6). Information was provided on the relative amount (weight percent) of fuel shipped by rail to a single storage facility (Table A.7) and to regional facilities (Table A.8). The variations in these figures are a function of the particular reactors making shipments in the various years and also the transportation mode, i.e., rail and/or truck, available at the individual reactors. All rail shipments were assumed to be made in a cask capable of transporting 10 PWR assemblies or 24 BWR assemblies. The truck cask was assumed to transport a single PWR assembly or 2 BWR assemblies. Actual spent-fuel casks exist with these capabilities. 4. The cask fleet requirements for both the rail/truck mix tTable A.9) and truck only (Table A.10) between 1986 and 2004 to make all shipments to a single storage facil- ity located in either the southeastern, Gulf Coast, or
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155 TABLE A.6 Number of Spent-Fuel Shipments to Regional Storage Facilities Using Truck Casks Only Western Southeastern Midwestern Year Facility Facility Facility Total 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 o o o 40 80 110 200 110 200 332 384 344 543 652 582 930 1010 1038 1088 253 363 230 856 583 454 1017 789 920 1321 1695 1428 2002 2277 2054 2971 2864 2749 3453 59 348 382 631 741 717 985 1525 1462 2112 2196 2542 2826 3393 3387 3798 3778 3868 4207 312 711 612 1527 1404 1281 2202 2424 2582 3765 4275 4314 5371 6322 6023 7699 7652 7655 8748 western region of the United States and then shipments to regional facilities (Table A.ll and A.12). In addition to the cask capacities discussed above, the information is based on the following assumptions: (a) Average transport speed: rail = 6 mph; truck = 34 mph; (b) Total time at point of departure and destination to unload casks: rail = 5 days; truck = 3 days; and (c) All casks are available 300 days/year. Capital cost for the casks is estimated to be approximately $5,000,000 for a rail cask and $500,000 for a truck cask. 5. The effect of the location of a single storage facility and regional facilities on the required transportation distances for rail and trucks (Tables A.13, A.14, and A.15). The transportation distance is round-trip distance, i.e., includes shipment of empty
156 TABLE A.7 Relative Amount of Fuel Shipped by Rail to a Single Storage Facility Year Amount (wt% ) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 36.2 19.4 53.5 28.3 33.4 49.6 43.3 53.3 69.5 61.7 62.4 68.7 64.4 67.3 71.8 71.4 70.4 75.2 71.1 TABLE A.8 Relative Amount of Spent Fuel Shipped by Rail to Regional Storage Facilities Year Amount (wt % ) . . Western Southeastern Midwestern 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 100.0 100.0 100 .0 T00 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 86.9 76.7 72.0 82.5 83.7 84.0 84.6 32.1 16.5 76.3 21.1 17.1 41.1 22.7 37.5 66.8 42.8 50.6 65.1 51.3 63.0 75.2 65.8 66.8 75.0 67.4 55.4 23.0 39.2 34.0 39.5 46.4 53.7 58.4 66.5 67.8 64.8 66.4 69.5 68.3 69.7 72.9 69.3 72.8 70.6
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158 TABLE A.10 Cask Fleet Requirements for Shipping Spent Fuel to a Single Storage Facility Using Truck Casks Only Southeastern Gulf Coast Western Facility Facility Facility Year (No. of Casks) (No. of Casks) (No. of Casks) 1986 5 6 9 1987 11 12 21 1988 10 12 19 1989 23 27 43 1990 23 26 39 1991 21 25 3 7 1992 36 40 61 1993 40 43 66 1994 43 46 69 1995 63 68 100 1996 72 75 110 1997 73 77 113 1998 92 95 138 1999 108 112 162 2000 104 107 154 2001 133 137 195 2002 133 136 192 2003 135 137 191 2004 151 154 220 cask to reactor and shipment of loaded cask to receiving facility. 6. Estimated transportation costs for rail/truck (Table A.16) and trucks only (Table A.17) including both the carrier cost and a charge for leasing the shipping cask, in 1981 dollars. Most cost data are based on information that is approximately 3-4 years old (see D. _ . . . . . S. Joy, D. J. Hudson, and M. W. Anthonly, Logistics cnaracter~zation for Regional Spent Fuel Repository Concepts, ONWI-124, August 1980); the calculated cost was increased by 40 percent to account for inflation. Lease charges, after adjusting for inflation, were assumed to be $5040/day for a rail cask and $910/day for a truck cask. When shipping to multiple facilities, the average shipping distances are much smaller. This results in a considerable reduction in the cask fleet requirements and costs when compared with the case where a single storage facility is used (Table A.18). Shipping casks were assumed not to cross any regional boundary in the
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163 TABLE A.15 Transportation Distances and Costs of Shipping Spent Fuel to Regional Facilities Us ing Rail and Truck Casks Distance (mile x 10 ) Cost - Year Rail Truck ($ x 10~) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.22 0.29 0.32 0.36 0.46 0.48 0.61 0.60 0.65 0.68 0.15 0.54 0.43 1.05 0.93 0.84 1.26 1.26 1.01 1.53 1.70 1.65 1.98 2.43 2.29 2.45 2.72 2.49 2.94 . 1.8 5.3 5.2 11.1 10.8 10.9 16.8 19.2 19.5 28.3 33.8 35.0 41.9 51.4 50.3 62.4 63.0 63.9 70.9 TOTAL 5.24 29.65 601.5 multiple-facility runs. That is, a cask used to make shipments to the western storage facility would not be used to make any shipment to other facilities. If there is no further demand for this cask, it would stand idle. The large variation in transportation requirements for the various receiving facilities is a function of the particular set of reactors making shipments to that facility. Note on Cost Sensitivity: The most critical parameter in the cost equations is the average rail speed. The value used in these calculations for rail transport was 6 mph.
164 o U] .,' U] o a) U] .,. ~ U' s ~5 u, o o ~ En o a_1 it; v Q s Pa ~ lo o ~ m Sit Ed ~1 U] in> · A: .,, a; At; ED .~d _ ED ~O V ~ X 0 0 ~ 0 ~ 3 ~ _ ·,1 ·,. V 0 _ ~to O o C: X U] O ~ ~ ~_ ·~1 to s X ~ ~Q O O ~ ~n c) _ u~ 0 ~ a~ a, a, ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ u~ ~ ~ ~ 0 a · ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e u~ un ~r 0 co r~ ~ ~ o, ~ 0 ~ O u~ ~ ~o Lr} _I ~ {m ~ d' ~ Lr 1 - 0 ~ O ~ r~ ~ u, ~ r~ 0 ~o 0 ~ ~ ~ a' · · · e · · · ~ · ~ e ~ ~ 1-~ t- ~ `0 ~ CO ~ ~ 0` r~ r ~ u~ u 0 ~r ~ · · · ~ ~ U, ~ ~ . U~ U~ I ~r tD ~ U~ 0` · . · . ~ ~ cn cn a~ 0 U~ . ~r 0 o ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ · · · · ~ · · · · · ~ · · ~ ~r ~ u~ ~ _1 0 0 ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~O _1 ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~- ~ ~ ~ ~ O1D _ICD tD - = a' 0 ~ c~ ~ ~ u~ kD - 0 ~ O 0 ~ a) a) ~ o~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0~ cn a~ ~ 0 0 0 0 0 E~ a, ~ a~ ~ cr, ~ ~ ~ ~ o, ~ 0 0 0 0 0
165 ,. U] o . - U] JJ .,' .,, ~D o JJ X tn eQ ~ o ~ 3 o - {Q ·_, O a,1 >~ ~ ~ X S ~ U] U] ~ O ~ O ~ ~ _ O U] U] U] eq C) o C) ~ V O E~ Q u' P. D U] . - V ,_ Ld O <; E~ u · · ~ ~ ~ ~r .,. . - h _ U] ~ o X :~ ~n O O ~ U] ~ _ u~ ~ ~ as ~ a, vo r~ 0 ~r ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ · · · · ~ · ~ · ~ · · e ~ · ·e 0 co ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ r~ ~ ~ ao a, ~ u, co c~ ~ ~ ao oo 0 ~ ~ ~r ~ ~r ~o ~ _ _ _I _ _' _ · · ~ ~ ~ u~ ~ u~ ~ ~ a, ~ a, ~ ~ ~ a: a,~ · ~ · ~ · ~ · ~ · ~ · ~ ~ ~ -~ 0 (D LD a~ ~ ~r oo ~ ~ ~ a, ~ co vo ~ ~ ~ a' rn ~ ~ 0 ao ~ ~ ~ ~n 0 0 a, ~ 0 ~ a) 0 · ~ ~ ~ . ~ . ~ . ~ . u~ U~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~r tD 0~ ~ \0 ~ Co ~ ~ tD ~ ~U~ d' ~ U, ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ a,0 CD a, o' 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~n tD ~ ~ ~ 0\ ~ ~ ~ o, ~ ~ cn o' o, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o~ o~ a~ o~ ~ o~ cn - - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - - - - - - o 0 0 0 E~ o oo o o E~
166 TABLE A.18 Transportation Distances and Costs of Shipping Spent Fuel to Regional Facilities Using Truck Casks Only Distance 6 (mile x 10 ) Year Cost ($ x 10 ) = 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 TOTAL 0.19 0.65 0.75 1.43 1.43 1.55 2.21 2.52 2.51 3.61 4.40 4.65 5.41 6.77 6.68 8.07 8.16 8.41 9.26 78.66 1.9 5.2 5.3 11.4 10.9 11.0 17.0 19.1 19.7 28.5 33.6 34.7 41.7 50.7 49.3 61.1 61.2 62.3 69.7 594.3 l A change of a few miles per hour would have a major impact on rail transportation time and, hence, the number of casks required. Changing the average truck speed by about 5 mph, however, would only have a small impact on the number of-truck casks required. With the data used for those calculations, truck transport is somewhat less expensive than rail transport. If the average rail speed was increased by 1 mph, the relative economics of truck and rail shipments would be narrowly reversed. At 7 mph, rail transport would be less expensive, especially for shipments over 300 miles, and therefore cask leasing costs would decline.
