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Causes and Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Reduction: An Update A report preparer! by the Committee on Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Depletion and the Committee on Biological Effects of Increased Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Environmental Studies Board Commission on Natural Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1982

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committees responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. This study was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Contract No. 68-02-3701. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 82-81229 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03248-2 Available from NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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COMMITTEE ON CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS OF OZONE DEPLETION CHARLES H. KRUGER, JR. (Chairman), Stanford University ROBERT E. DICKINSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research JAMES P. FRIEND, Drexel University DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona MICHAEL B. McELROY, Harvard University COMMITTEE ON BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF INCREASED SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION RICHARD B. SETLOW (Chairman), Brookhaven National Laboratory JAMES P. FRIEND, Drexel University MAUREEN M. HENDERSON, University of Washington JOHN JAGGER, University of Texas at Dallas RICHARD M. KLEIN, University of Vermont JOHN A. PARRISH, Massachusetts General Hospital/Harvard University HOWARD H. SELIGER, Johns Hopkins University WILLIAM B. SISSON, U.S. Department of Agriculture/New Mexico State University Staff ADELE KING MALONE, Staff Officer ELIZABETH G. PANGS, Administrative Assistant MYRON F. UMAN, Senior Staff Officer . . . 111

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ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES BOARD DAVID PIMENTEL (Chairman), Cornell University DANIEL A. OKUN (Vice-Chairman), University of North Carolina ALVIN L. ALM, Harvard University RALPH C. D'ARGE, University of Wyoming ALFRED M. BEETON, University of Michigan JOHN CAIRNS, JR., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University JAMES A. FAY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MARGARET HITCHCOCK, Yale University School of Medicine JULIUS E. JOHNSON, Dow Chemical Company CHARLES H. KRUGER, JR., Stanford University KAI N. LEE, University of Washington CARL M. SHY, University of North Carolina EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Secretary MYRON F. UMAN, Associate Executive Secretary 1V

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COMMISSION ON NATURAL RESOURCES ROBERT M. WHITE (Chairman), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research TIMOTHY ATKESON, Steptoe & Johnson STANLEY I. AUERBACH, Oak Ridge National Laboratory NEVILLE P. CLARK, Texas A&M University NORMAN A. COPELAND, E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company Inc., retired GEORGE K. DAVIS, University of Florida, retired JOSEPH L. FISHER, Virginia Office of Human Resources EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography KONRAD B. KRAUSKOPF, Stanford University CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey NORTON NELSON, New York University Medical Center DANIEL A. OKUN, University of North Carolina DAVID PIMENTEL, Cornell University JOHN E. TILTON, Pennsylvania State University WALLACE D. BOWMAN, Executive Director THEODORE M. SCHAD, Deputy Executive Director v

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CONTENTS PREFACE SUMMARY Introduction, 1 Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Reduction, 1 Biological Effects of Increased Solar Ultraviolet Radiation, 4 PART I: CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS OF OZONE REDUCTION 1 CURRENT STATUS Introduction, 15 Processes Determining Ozone Concentrations, 15 Current Status of Models of the Stratosphere, 24 Monitoring and Assessment of Trends, 26 The Question of Early Detection, 27 Uncertainty, 28 Findings, 30 Recommendations, 32 PART II: BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF INCREASED SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION 2 INTRODUCTION The Problem, 39 The Underlying Biological Questions, 42 3 MOLECULAR AND CELLULAR STUDIES Summary, 47 Introduction, 49 Advances in Knowledge, 51 Research Recommendations, 60 4 ECOSYSTEMS AND THEIR COMPONENTS Summary, 62 Introduction, 64 vii ix 1 15 37 47 62

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Effects on Plants, 64 Effects on Domestic Animals, 69 Effects on Aquatic Organisms, 69 Research Recommendations, 72 5 DIRECT HUMAN HEALTH HAZARDS Summary, 75 Anatomical and Optical Properties of Skin and Blood, 76 Effects Other Than Cancer, 80 Cancer Effects, 85 Protection Against Damage from Sunlight, 112 Research Reco~Tunendations, 114 REFERENCES GLOSSARY LIST OF CHEMICAL SYMBOLS APPENDIXES A PERTURBATIONS OF THE STRATOSPHERE AND OZONE DEPLETION B STRATOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS--THE ROLE OF DYNAMICS, TRANSPORT, AND CLIMATE CHANGE C RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN STRATOSPHERIC PHOTOCHEMISTRY D THE MEASUREMENT OF TRACE REACTIVE SPECIES IN THE STRATOSPHERE: A REVIEW OF RECENT RESULTS E TREND ANALYSIS OF TOTAL OZONE F DETECTION OF TRENDS IN THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF OZONE G THE ASSOCIATION OF DNA DAMAGE WITH CANCER-INITIATING EVENTS H PARTICIPANTS IN THE WORKSHOP ON BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF INCREASED SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION I BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS AND CONSULTANTS viii 75 116 134 142 145 159 167 206 306 315 331 333 335

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PREFACE The Clean Air Act, as amended in August 1977 (Part B. Title I), is intended, in part, to foster understanding of how human activities may affect the stratosphere, in particular the ozone layer, and how changes in the stratosphere, especially changes in ozone concentrations, may affect public health and welfare. The act requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other agencies to conduct studies to increase our knowledge on these topics. The agencies must report to Congress biennially on the results of relevant research. In the spring of 1981, EPA asked the National Research Council (NRC) for assistance in carrying out its responsi- bilities under the act. The NRC was asked to provide an assessment of the state of knowledge on ozone depletion and its effects, to be used by EPA in preparing its biennial report to Congress, due in January 1982. The NRC had prepared earlier reports on these topics, Environmental Impact of Stratospheric Flight: Biological and Climatic Effects of Aircraft Emissions in the Stratosphere (1975), Halocarbons: Environmental Effects of Chlorofluoromethane Release (1976a), Halocarbons: Effects on Stratospheric Ozone (1976b), Nitrates: An Environmental Assessment (1978), Protection Against Depletion of Stratospheric Ozone by Chlorofluorocarbons (1979a), and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Halocarbons: Chemistry and Transport (1979b). The purpose of the current study was to update these previous reports by assessing the most recent scientific information. The study was assigned to the Environmental Studies Board within the Commission on Natural Resources of the NRC. The study was divided into two parts: first, an assessment of changes in understanding of the atmospheric chemistry and physics of ozone depletion, and, second, an 1X

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examination of current knowledge about environmental and human health effects of the increased intensities of solar ultraviolet radiation that would result from reductions in stratospheric ozone. EPA asked that the study emphasize the assessment of biological effects. In May 1981, the Committee on Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Depletion and the Committee on Biological Effects of Increased Solar Ultraviolet Radiation were established under the auspices of the Environmental Studies Board. (Biographical data on the members of the committees appear in Appendix I.) In October 1981, EPA requested that the committees take whatever additional time may be necessary beyond the original contract deadline of December 21, 1981, to ensure that sufficient time was available for consideration of the report of an international workshop held in May 1981 under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Federal Aviation Administration, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Hudson et al. 1982). Accordingly, the period of study was extended through March 1982. The two committees approached their tasks in different ways. The Committee on Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Depletion commissioned six consultants to review current developments in three areas: (1) laboratory measurements and modeling, (2) measurements in the stratosphere, and (3) understanding of stratospheric perturbations and trends. The consultants' papers were reviewed by independent peer reviewers. The commissioned papers and peer reviews along with successive drafts of the report of the NASA/WMO workshop provided the base of information from which the committee's report was developed. The commissioned papers are included as Appendixes A through F. The Committee on Biological Effects of Increased Solar Ultraviolet Radiation organized a workshop that was held on July 30-31, 1981, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C. Approximately 30 scientists who were active in research or familiar with the current literature participated, including the committee. Participants presented and assessed the information that had become available since the NRC (1979a) report, covering three topics: (1) molecular and cellular studies, (2) ecosystem effects, and (3) human health effects. The committee members drew on the presentations and discussions at the workshop, the work of the Panel to Review Statistics-on

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Skin Cancer (funded by the Department of Energy and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences) of the NRC Committee on National Statistics, and their own knowledge to develop their report. Workshop participants and several additional scientists active in the field were asked to review the report. pants are listed in Appendix H. The workshop partici The report consists of a joint summary followed by Part I and Part II, which are from the Committee on Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Depletion and the Committee on Biological Effects of Increased Solar Ultraviolet Radiation, respectively. Of the material included in this volume, only the summary and Parts I and II have been critically reviewed by the NRC. Views expressed in the commissioned papers in the appendixes are not necessarily those of the committees. The two committees wish to express their appreciation to Adele King Malone, Elizabeth G. Panos, and Myron F. Uman of the National Research Council for their contributions in managing our study and preparing this report. Other staff members providing assistance include Raphael Kasper, Estelle Miller, Roseanne Price, Robert Rooney, and Christina Shipman. We also want to thank the members of our two committees and consultants for the diligence and enthusiasm with which they approached our task. We are grateful, too, for the cheerful cooperation of personnel from EPA and NASA and for the helpful critiques provided by those who reviewed drafts of our consultants' papers and our report. Our report is, as were the ones that preceded it, an attempt to describe the current state of knowledge in fields that are rapidly developing. The goal is to give policy makers an independent and objective assessment of what we know now, what we do not know, and the Prospects for resolving current uncertainties. will prove useful. We hope our efforts Charles H. Kruger, Jr., Chairman Committee on Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Depletion Richard B. Setlow, Chairman Committee on Biological Effects of Increased Solar Ultraviolet Radiation

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