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OCR for page 205
Index
A
Aeronautics/aerospace industry, 144-145
Africa, 39-40
population growth, 48, 49
Agricultural system
animal husbandry, 58-59
capacity to feed ten billion people, 5-
6, 59, 61, 67, 70
current production, 57-59
decoupling food from land, 6
demands of population doubling, 52,
56
demographic transition, 45, 47, 194
diffusion of innovation, 5, 62-64
environmental effects of productivity
increases, 65-66
historical population growth and, 37-
40
land use/productivity, 5-6, 56-57, 60,
66, 70, 190
limits to productivity increases, 59-62
origins of, 37-39
potential surprises, 68-70
preventing deforestation, 66-67
prospects for future, 190
205
sparing land for nature, 56-57, 62-64,
70
water consumption, 64, 70, 191
Aluminum, 143, 145, 146
Anthropocentrism, 8, 168
conceptual origins in Bacon, 174-176
in modern science, 170
Art/artists
historical significance of, 171
religious content, 171-173
Renaissance science and, 171-174
Automobiles
dematerialization, 143-144
future considerations, 196
individual energy use, 95, 99-100, 101
plastic industry and, 143
technological diffusion, 21-22, 23, 25
B
Bacon, Francis
anthropocentrism of, 174
concept of progress, 175, 177-178
future orientation, 174-175
on genius and industry, 174
on nature as industry, 174
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206
on unity of order in nature and society,
175-176
Bellini, Giovanni, 171
Biodiversity, 198
Birth control, 10, 47
Boserup, Ester, 39
Bruno, Giordano, 173-174
C
Canada, 6
Canal-building, 19, 21
Child labor, 47, 190
China
dematerialization prospects, 152-153
energy system, 3, 78, 81-83, 84
historical technological development,
39-40
land use, 5
population growth and policy, 46, 47,
48,49,51
Chlorofluorocarbons, A
Cistercian monasteries, 14-16
Clean Water Act, 6
Climate change, 69, 198
Coal
carbon content, 3, 77
evolution in energy system, 85, 121
use in developing world, 81-83
waste products, lS 1
Cogeneration, 162
Communications technology, 105
for counterurbanization, l9S
telephone, 149-lSO
trends in use, 149
for waste management, 163-164
Competition
among primary energy sources, 85
between technologies in technology
diffusion, 22-23
Condorcet, Marquis de, 35, 178-179
Copernicus, Nicolaus, 170-171, 173
Copper, 146
Counterurbanization
communications system for, l9S
rationale, l9S
transportation system for, l9S-196
INDEX
D
da Vinci, Leonardo, 171, 172
Decarbonization, 12
dematerialization and, 75-76, 87
economics, 3
final energy consumption, 80, 81, 83-
85
forecasts, 85-87
historical trend, 3
international comparison, 78-79
measurement of, 76-77, 81, 84
pace of, 26
plastics market and, 143
primary energy consumption/
conversion, 80-81, 83-84
processes, international comparison of,
80-85
prospects for industrializing nations,
81-83, 84
rate of, 3, 138
trends, 75, 78, 80, 121, 138
Deevey, Edward, 36-37, 39
Deforestation
historical context, 1, 2
strategies for prevention, 66-67
Demandite, 137-138
Dematerialization, 7-8
consumer behavior and, 146-150, 154
definition, 135
economic development and, 152
in energy system, 75-76, 87
industrial ecology and, 136
in industry and manufacturing, 143-
146, 153-154
materials substitution in, 152
measurement of, 136, 154
primary materials, 136-143, 153
prospects, 152-153
research needs, 154
significance of, 135-136
theoretical model, 152-154
trends, 139
waste and, 150-151, 154
Demographic transition, 44-47, SO-51
Diffusion of innovation
in agriculture, 5, 62-64
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INDEX
competition between technologies, 22-
23
determinants of, 17-19
duration of, 19-25
economic context, 28
electrical power, 111-112, 131
implications for environmental policy-
making, 29-30
interdependence of technologies and
systems, 21, 25
later adoption phase, 23
levels of, 19
maglev trains, 129
by market expansion, 22
network model, 14-16
opposition to, 17
pace of, 4, 16-17, 26-27, 27-28, 185
process, 16-17, 29
productivity increases, 74
saturation patterns, 25-29
selection of standards, 17
sociocultural context, 17-18, 19, 185
spatial, 14-16, 24-25
substitution of technologies, 21-22
temporal perspective, 14, 23-24
trend projections, 28
See also Technology
Disease, 8-9
population growth and, 44 45, 68-69
Drake, Edward, 2
Durer, Albrecht, 171, 172
E
Economic analysis
agricultural productivity/prices, 63-64
decarbonization of energy system, 3
dematerialization and economic
development, 152
development of electric utilities, 113-
114, 115-117, 130
of diffusion of technological
innovation, 28
effective recycling, 145
effects of development on population
growth, 46-48
207
electricity utilization, 118
environmental impacts of waste
production, 160-161,
162-163
future energy needs, 192
household consumption patterns, 92
94
materials consumption per unit of
economic activity, 139
optimal waste management state, 164
shifts in energy consumption, gO-91
tax policies and energy use, 100-101
trend projections, 28
water use per unit of production, 6
world economic growth trends, 79-80
Edison, Thomas, 110, 111, 113, 115
Egypt, 43
Ehrlich, Anne, 49-50
Ehrlich, Paul, 49-50
Elderly population, 97-98, 101, 103
Electricity
carbon intensity, 81, 121
consumption of primary fuels for, 81,
122-123, 193
continental distribution, 117, 130
current utilization and capacity, 117
119
day-to-night demand, 123-124
decarbonization, 80-81
demand forecasting, 118-119
development of dynamo, 112
development of transmission systems,
113-117, 119-120
early investigations, 110-112
economic cycles in development of,
130
efficiency gains, 4-5
efficiency goals, 123-124
environmental effects, 121-122
future prospects, 86-87, 130-131,
193-194
for lighting, 4-5, 84, 125- 127
new technologies, 122
residential consumption, 120-121
spatial energy consumption, 114-115
splicer technology, 125, 130-131
system reliability, 125
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208
system saturation patterns, 130
for temperature control, 127
for transportation, 127-129
Energy system
carbon intensity, 3, 76-77, 81
consumption trends, 75, 90-92, 107
demands of population doubling, 52
dematerialization, 75-76
diffusion of technology innovation,
26-27
efficiency gains, 4-5
energy intensity, 77-79, 80
evolution of iron and steel industry,
22-23
evolution of primary energy sources,
85
extraction of energy from waste, 162
future prospects, 85-87, 107
historical development, 1, 2
household consumption patterns, 92
94, 96-98, 103-104
hydrogen carrier, 3, 7, 86-87, 122
implications of current life-style
trends, 104-107
income related to consumption, 93
labor requirements, 75
life-style linkages, 89-90
Malthusian models, 35
as measure of environmental impact,
89
methane, 86
per capita carbon consumption, 3
productivity trends, 74-75
prospects for supply and demand, 192
194
secondary materials markets and, 145
social custom as determinant of
consumption, 99-102
stocks and flows in production
processes, 158-159
structure, 80
waste in, 158
See also Decarbonization; Electricity
Environmental degradation
electrical power effects, 121-122
historical perspective, 1-2
INDEX
humanity's perception of its relation to
nature and, 73-174
Environmental protection
crisis thinking, 187-188, 189
evolution of attitudes toward, 11-12
patterns of technology diffusion,
implications of, 29-30
significance of dematerialization, 135-
136
sparing agricultural land for, 56-57,
62-64, 70
waste disposal goals, 163
F
Food and nutrition
current agricultural production, 57-59
current daily recommendations, 57-58
forecasts for supply and demand, 190
Malthusian concept of population
growth and, 33-34
meat diets, 59
per capita calorie consumption, 5-6
source of, 59-60
See also Agricultural system
France
energy system, 78, 80, 83-84, 117
land use, 5
transportation system, 128
G
Galileo, 170-171
General Electric Company, 115-116
Germany
automobile recycling, 144
energy consumption, 91, 101
energy system, 78
waste regulation, lS 1
Giorgione, 171, 172
Green Revolution, 57, 60
H
Habitability, 186, 188
Hazardous waste
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INDEX
current generation of, 151
potential future use, 161-162
water, 6-7
Health and safety
benefits of electrical power, 121
historical trends in causes of death, 8-
9
population growth and disease, 44-45
world life expectancy, 46
Humboldt, Alexander von, 8, 168-170,
180
Impressionist art, 171
India
agriculture, 57
dematerialization prospects, 152-153
energy system, 3, 81-83, 84
population growth and policy, 51
Industrial ecology
conceptualization of waste in, 157-158
goals, 136
policy selection for, 165-166
Industrial revolution, 2
demographic transition, 45
Industry and manufacturing
beverage containers, 143
dematerialization in, 143-146, 153
154
energy consumption, 90-91, 101, 107
evolution of power sources, 112
individuation of commercial products
149
modeling of costs and environmental
impacts, 160-161, 162-163
model of materials/energy flows, 157,
158-159
need for, 166
packaging materials, 151
product life-cycle analysis, 143
waste management goals, 157, 164
165
water consumption, 6, 150, 191
International coordination for population
control, 46-47
209
Invention, in technology diffusion
process, 16-17
Iron and steel industry, 22-23
coal consumption, 121
energy system, 75
materials reuse, 145, 146
J
Japan, 11
automobile consumption/production,
23
energy consumption, 101-102, 104
energy system, 78, 80, 83
urban population, 195
K
Kant, Immanuel, 169, 180-182
L
Land use
future population growth and, 194-195
implications of current trends, 106
for meat production, 59
preventing deforestation, 66-67
rationale for environmental
preservation, 56
residential, trends in, 146-148
See also Agricultural system
Lee, Ronald, 39-40
Leibniz, Gottiried Wilhelm, 177-178
Life expectancy
cause of death, 8-9, 44-45
trends, 46
Life-style
characteristics, 92
consumption trends, 149
demographic determinants of energy
use, 96-98
elderly population, 97-98, 101
energy consumption, 89-90
future considerations for energy
system, 104-107
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210
household energy consumption, 92-94,
120-121
housing trends, 146-149
implications for dematerialization,
146-150
social custom as determinant of energy
use, 99-102
time allocations, 95
travel behaviors, 95, 99
weight of household possessions, 149
Lighting, electric, 4-5, 84, 125-127
Luddites, 17
M
Maglev trains, 5, 128-129
Malthus, Thomas Robert, 35
life and milieu, 34-35, 37, 44, 46
principles of population, 33-34
Materials consumption
for construction, 138
for energy system, 75
goals, 7-8
individual lifetime, 139
individuation of commercial products,
149
intensity of use, 139-140
life-cycle analysis, 143
new metals, 141-142
per capita, 139, 142, 143
per unit of economic activity, 139
primary flows, 137-138
product packaging, 151
stocks and flows, 158-159
trends, 7
volume trends, 142
weight of household possessions, 149
See also Resource use
Materials substitution, 152
Metals use, 7, 8
Methane, 86
Mexico, 43
N
Natural gas
INDEX
carbon content, 3, 77
estimates of supply, 192-193
future prospects, 85, 86, 121-122
Nature, humanity's relation to, 8, 168-170
Baconian perspective, 174-176
concept of progress and perfectibility
in, 177-179
as control and separation, 10-11
future orientation, 174, 179, 182
goals, 11-12,182
habitability requirements, 186
intentionality of nature, 180-182
quality of life goals, 188-189
in Renaissance art and science, 171-
174
unity of order in, 175-176
Western tradition, 168
Negentropy, 159
energy systems for, 163
Nigeria, 78
Nuclear energy
decarbonization effects, 83-84
prospects, 85, 122, 193
Nuclear weapons, 11
test ban treaties, 1
o
Opposition to technological development,
17
p
Paper consumption, 136, 141, 146
Perrault, Charles, 178
Petroleum
carbon content, 3, 77
evolution in energy system, 85, 121
oil embargoes of nineteen-seventies,
139, 142
prospects for supply and demand, 192,
193
Philosophy of science
anthropocentric, 170
concept of progress, 177
Copernican thought, 170-171, 173
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INDEX
descriptive role of science, 175, 176
geocentric, 169-170
Humboldt's contribution, 169-170
Kant's, 182
modern era, 174-176
Plastics, 142-143
Poland, 91, 94
Policy and regulation
Bacon's unity of order in nature and
society, 175-176
determinants of household energy use,
100-101
effectiveness of, 165, 176
electric utilities, 114
environmental crisis as rationale for,
187-188, 189
human progress and perfectibility as
conceptual basis of, 177-179
long-term strategies, 198
optimal waste management state, 164
rationale, 197
recyclability of products, 144
regional planning, 196-197
statistical mechanics for policy
selection, 165-166
uncertainty effects, 189
vs. unrestrained market, 197
water consumption, 6
Population growth
aging of population, 97-98, 103
agricultural innovation and, 37-40
agricultural needs, 5-6, 52, 56
birth control, 10, 47
capacity to feed ten billion people, 5
6, 59, 61, 67, 70
demographic transition, 39, 44 47, 50
51
disease and, 44 45, 68-69
economic development and, 46-48
effectiveness of control strategies, 48
49
exponential models, 34, 36
family planning programs, 47-48
fertility trends, 10, 48
forecasts, 43, 45-46, 51-52, 79, 189
190
future prospects, 49-52, 197-198
211
household size and energy use, 96-97,
103, 104
individual consumption of resources,
35-36
international planning, 46-47
land use trends, 194-195
Malthusian concept, 33-35
millennial perspective, 40-43
neo-Malthusian models, 35
over course of human evolution, 36-40
technology development and, 10, 37,
39-40
temporal perspectives, 10, 36, 52
trends, 10, 79, 146, 185
water needs, 191-192
world, 1, 45-46, 79
Product design
automobile dematerialization, 143-144
life-cycle analysis, 143
measuring environmental impacts,
160-161
waste prevention in, 157-158
Productivity
agricultural, 5-6, 56-57, 59-62, 66, 70
energy systems, 74-75
scale of production and, 74
through diffusion of innovation, 74
Q
Quality of life, 188-189
R
Railroad technology, 17
duration of diffusion, 19-23, 24-25
Raphael, 171
Recreation in natural environment, 11
Recycling
automobile design for, 143-144
consumer demand, 145
dematerialization and, 145
isolation of desired material for, 145
limits of, 146
in optimal waste management state,
164
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212
plastics, 143
precious metals recovery, 145
requirements for success, 145
trends, 8, 145-146
waste water, 7, 191
Regulation. See Policy and regulation
Renaissance art and science, 170-174,
175, 177
Resource intensity, 92, 139-140
Resource use
concept of sustainability, 187-188
demands of population doubling, 52
for dematerialization, 154
differences in individual consumption,
35-36
energy consumption trends, 75
household appliances, 4, 93, 104, 120
household consumption patterns, 92-
94, 120-121
life-cycle analysis, 143
Malthusian models, 35
per capita calorie consumption, 5-6
per capita carbon consumption, 3
productivity increases, 74
See also Dematerialization; Materials
consumption; Recycling; specific
resource
Revenge theory, 7, 135, 136
Road-building, 19-21
S
Service industries, energy consumption in,
3, 90-91
Sludge, 151
Smith, Adam, 34
Sociocultural context
concepts of human progress and
perfectibility, 177-179
demographic transition, 44- 45
determinants of energy use, 96-98,
99-102, 103-105
effects of economic development on
population growth, 47~8
environmental decision-making, 197
gender roles, 97, 99
INDEX
historical trends in causes of death, 8-
9
housing trends, 146-149
humanity's relation to environment, 8
human quality of life concerns, 188
189
influence of Copernican thought, 170,
173
population control policy, 47
rate of social change, 27
Renaissance era art and science, 170
174
significance of art, 171
of technology diffusion, 17-18, 19, 25,
185
technology in, 16
Western philosophy of nature, 168
Solar/wind energy, 163, 193, 194
Statistical mechanics, 165-166
Steam engine, 112
Steinmetz, Charles Proteus, 115-116
Superfund sites, 161
Sustainability
conceptualizations of, 186-187
as goal of regulatory policy, 187-188
human quality of life concerns, 188
189
obstacles to, 197, 198
population size and, 36
prospects, 197-198
rationale, 187
waste management and, 163
Sweden, 100-101
T
Telephones, 149-150
Tertullian, 34-35
Titian, 171
Transportation
consumption trends, 91, 92-94
for counte:rurbanization, 195-196
duration of technology diffusion, 19-
25
electric vehicles, 127-129
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212
plastics, 143
precious metals recovery, 145
requirements for success, 145
trends, 8, 145-146
waste water, 7, 191
Regulation. See Policy and regulation
Renaissance art and science, 170-174,
175, 177
Resource intensity, 92, 139-140
Resource use
concept of sustainability, 187-188
demands of population doubling, 52
for dematerialization, 154
differences in individual consumption,
35-36
energy consumption trends, 75
household appliances, 4, 93, 104, 120
household consumption patterns, 92-
94, 120-121
life-cycle analysis, 143
Malthusian models, 35
per capita calorie consumption, 5-6
per capita carbon consumption, 3
productivity increases, 74
See also Dematerialization; Materials
consumption; Recycling; specific
resource
Revenge theory, 7, 135, 136
Road-building, 19-21
S
Service industries, energy consumption in,
3, 90-91
Sludge, 151
Smith, Adam, 34
Sociocultural context
concepts of human progress and
perfectibility, 177-179
demographic transition, 44- 45
determinants of energy use, 96-98,
99-102, 103-105
effects of economic development on
population growth, 47~8
environmental decision-making, 197
gender roles, 97, 99
INDEX
historical trends in causes of death, 8-
9
housing trends, 146-149
humanity's relation to environment, 8
human quality of life concerns, 188
189
influence of Copernican thought, 170,
173
population control policy, 47
rate of social change, 27
Renaissance era art and science, 170
174
significance of art, 171
of technology diffusion, 17-18, 19, 25,
185
technology in, 16
Western philosophy of nature, 168
Solar/wind energy, 163, 193, 194
Statistical mechanics, 165-166
Steam engine, 112
Steinmetz, Charles Proteus, 115-116
Superfund sites, 161
Sustainability
conceptualizations of, 186-187
as goal of regulatory policy, 187-188
human quality of life concerns, 188
189
obstacles to, 197, 198
population size and, 36
prospects, 197-198
rationale, 187
waste management and, 163
Sweden, 100-101
T
Telephones, 149-150
Tertullian, 34-35
Titian, 171
Transportation
consumption trends, 91, 92-94
for counte:rurbanization, 195-196
duration of technology diffusion, 19-
25
electric vehicles, 127-129
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
energy consumption
