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Index A Aeronautics/aerospace industry, 144-145 Africa, 39-40 population growth, 48, 49 Agricultural system animal husbandry, 58-59 capacity to feed ten billion people, 5- 6, 59, 61, 67, 70 current production, 57-59 decoupling food from land, 6 demands of population doubling, 52, 56 demographic transition, 45, 47, 194 diffusion of innovation, 5, 62-64 environmental effects of productivity increases, 65-66 historical population growth and, 37- 40 land use/productivity, 5-6, 56-57, 60, 66, 70, 190 limits to productivity increases, 59-62 origins of, 37-39 potential surprises, 68-70 preventing deforestation, 66-67 prospects for future, 190 205 sparing land for nature, 56-57, 62-64, 70 water consumption, 64, 70, 191 Aluminum, 143, 145, 146 Anthropocentrism, 8, 168 conceptual origins in Bacon, 174-176 in modern science, 170 Art/artists historical significance of, 171 religious content, 171-173 Renaissance science and, 171-174 Automobiles dematerialization, 143-144 future considerations, 196 individual energy use, 95, 99-100, 101 plastic industry and, 143 technological diffusion, 21-22, 23, 25 B Bacon, Francis anthropocentrism of, 174 concept of progress, 175, 177-178 future orientation, 174-175 on genius and industry, 174 on nature as industry, 174

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206 on unity of order in nature and society, 175-176 Bellini, Giovanni, 171 Biodiversity, 198 Birth control, 10, 47 Boserup, Ester, 39 Bruno, Giordano, 173-174 C Canada, 6 Canal-building, 19, 21 Child labor, 47, 190 China dematerialization prospects, 152-153 energy system, 3, 78, 81-83, 84 historical technological development, 39-40 land use, 5 population growth and policy, 46, 47, 48,49,51 Chlorofluorocarbons, A Cistercian monasteries, 14-16 Clean Water Act, 6 Climate change, 69, 198 Coal carbon content, 3, 77 evolution in energy system, 85, 121 use in developing world, 81-83 waste products, lS 1 Cogeneration, 162 Communications technology, 105 for counterurbanization, l9S telephone, 149-lSO trends in use, 149 for waste management, 163-164 Competition among primary energy sources, 85 between technologies in technology diffusion, 22-23 Condorcet, Marquis de, 35, 178-179 Copernicus, Nicolaus, 170-171, 173 Copper, 146 Counterurbanization communications system for, l9S rationale, l9S transportation system for, l9S-196 INDEX D da Vinci, Leonardo, 171, 172 Decarbonization, 12 dematerialization and, 75-76, 87 economics, 3 final energy consumption, 80, 81, 83- 85 forecasts, 85-87 historical trend, 3 international comparison, 78-79 measurement of, 76-77, 81, 84 pace of, 26 plastics market and, 143 primary energy consumption/ conversion, 80-81, 83-84 processes, international comparison of, 80-85 prospects for industrializing nations, 81-83, 84 rate of, 3, 138 trends, 75, 78, 80, 121, 138 Deevey, Edward, 36-37, 39 Deforestation historical context, 1, 2 strategies for prevention, 66-67 Demandite, 137-138 Dematerialization, 7-8 consumer behavior and, 146-150, 154 definition, 135 economic development and, 152 in energy system, 75-76, 87 industrial ecology and, 136 in industry and manufacturing, 143- 146, 153-154 materials substitution in, 152 measurement of, 136, 154 primary materials, 136-143, 153 prospects, 152-153 research needs, 154 significance of, 135-136 theoretical model, 152-154 trends, 139 waste and, 150-151, 154 Demographic transition, 44-47, SO-51 Diffusion of innovation in agriculture, 5, 62-64

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INDEX competition between technologies, 22- 23 determinants of, 17-19 duration of, 19-25 economic context, 28 electrical power, 111-112, 131 implications for environmental policy- making, 29-30 interdependence of technologies and systems, 21, 25 later adoption phase, 23 levels of, 19 maglev trains, 129 by market expansion, 22 network model, 14-16 opposition to, 17 pace of, 4, 16-17, 26-27, 27-28, 185 process, 16-17, 29 productivity increases, 74 saturation patterns, 25-29 selection of standards, 17 sociocultural context, 17-18, 19, 185 spatial, 14-16, 24-25 substitution of technologies, 21-22 temporal perspective, 14, 23-24 trend projections, 28 See also Technology Disease, 8-9 population growth and, 44 45, 68-69 Drake, Edward, 2 Durer, Albrecht, 171, 172 E Economic analysis agricultural productivity/prices, 63-64 decarbonization of energy system, 3 dematerialization and economic development, 152 development of electric utilities, 113- 114, 115-117, 130 of diffusion of technological innovation, 28 effective recycling, 145 effects of development on population growth, 46-48 207 electricity utilization, 118 environmental impacts of waste production, 160-161, 162-163 future energy needs, 192 household consumption patterns, 92 94 materials consumption per unit of economic activity, 139 optimal waste management state, 164 shifts in energy consumption, gO-91 tax policies and energy use, 100-101 trend projections, 28 water use per unit of production, 6 world economic growth trends, 79-80 Edison, Thomas, 110, 111, 113, 115 Egypt, 43 Ehrlich, Anne, 49-50 Ehrlich, Paul, 49-50 Elderly population, 97-98, 101, 103 Electricity carbon intensity, 81, 121 consumption of primary fuels for, 81, 122-123, 193 continental distribution, 117, 130 current utilization and capacity, 117 119 day-to-night demand, 123-124 decarbonization, 80-81 demand forecasting, 118-119 development of dynamo, 112 development of transmission systems, 113-117, 119-120 early investigations, 110-112 economic cycles in development of, 130 efficiency gains, 4-5 efficiency goals, 123-124 environmental effects, 121-122 future prospects, 86-87, 130-131, 193-194 for lighting, 4-5, 84, 125- 127 new technologies, 122 residential consumption, 120-121 spatial energy consumption, 114-115 splicer technology, 125, 130-131 system reliability, 125

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208 system saturation patterns, 130 for temperature control, 127 for transportation, 127-129 Energy system carbon intensity, 3, 76-77, 81 consumption trends, 75, 90-92, 107 demands of population doubling, 52 dematerialization, 75-76 diffusion of technology innovation, 26-27 efficiency gains, 4-5 energy intensity, 77-79, 80 evolution of iron and steel industry, 22-23 evolution of primary energy sources, 85 extraction of energy from waste, 162 future prospects, 85-87, 107 historical development, 1, 2 household consumption patterns, 92 94, 96-98, 103-104 hydrogen carrier, 3, 7, 86-87, 122 implications of current life-style trends, 104-107 income related to consumption, 93 labor requirements, 75 life-style linkages, 89-90 Malthusian models, 35 as measure of environmental impact, 89 methane, 86 per capita carbon consumption, 3 productivity trends, 74-75 prospects for supply and demand, 192 194 secondary materials markets and, 145 social custom as determinant of consumption, 99-102 stocks and flows in production processes, 158-159 structure, 80 waste in, 158 See also Decarbonization; Electricity Environmental degradation electrical power effects, 121-122 historical perspective, 1-2 INDEX humanity's perception of its relation to nature and, 73-174 Environmental protection crisis thinking, 187-188, 189 evolution of attitudes toward, 11-12 patterns of technology diffusion, implications of, 29-30 significance of dematerialization, 135- 136 sparing agricultural land for, 56-57, 62-64, 70 waste disposal goals, 163 F Food and nutrition current agricultural production, 57-59 current daily recommendations, 57-58 forecasts for supply and demand, 190 Malthusian concept of population growth and, 33-34 meat diets, 59 per capita calorie consumption, 5-6 source of, 59-60 See also Agricultural system France energy system, 78, 80, 83-84, 117 land use, 5 transportation system, 128 G Galileo, 170-171 General Electric Company, 115-116 Germany automobile recycling, 144 energy consumption, 91, 101 energy system, 78 waste regulation, lS 1 Giorgione, 171, 172 Green Revolution, 57, 60 H Habitability, 186, 188 Hazardous waste

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INDEX current generation of, 151 potential future use, 161-162 water, 6-7 Health and safety benefits of electrical power, 121 historical trends in causes of death, 8- 9 population growth and disease, 44-45 world life expectancy, 46 Humboldt, Alexander von, 8, 168-170, 180 Impressionist art, 171 India agriculture, 57 dematerialization prospects, 152-153 energy system, 3, 81-83, 84 population growth and policy, 51 Industrial ecology conceptualization of waste in, 157-158 goals, 136 policy selection for, 165-166 Industrial revolution, 2 demographic transition, 45 Industry and manufacturing beverage containers, 143 dematerialization in, 143-146, 153 154 energy consumption, 90-91, 101, 107 evolution of power sources, 112 individuation of commercial products 149 modeling of costs and environmental impacts, 160-161, 162-163 model of materials/energy flows, 157, 158-159 need for, 166 packaging materials, 151 product life-cycle analysis, 143 waste management goals, 157, 164 165 water consumption, 6, 150, 191 International coordination for population control, 46-47 209 Invention, in technology diffusion process, 16-17 Iron and steel industry, 22-23 coal consumption, 121 energy system, 75 materials reuse, 145, 146 J Japan, 11 automobile consumption/production, 23 energy consumption, 101-102, 104 energy system, 78, 80, 83 urban population, 195 K Kant, Immanuel, 169, 180-182 L Land use future population growth and, 194-195 implications of current trends, 106 for meat production, 59 preventing deforestation, 66-67 rationale for environmental preservation, 56 residential, trends in, 146-148 See also Agricultural system Lee, Ronald, 39-40 Leibniz, Gottiried Wilhelm, 177-178 Life expectancy cause of death, 8-9, 44-45 trends, 46 Life-style characteristics, 92 consumption trends, 149 demographic determinants of energy use, 96-98 elderly population, 97-98, 101 energy consumption, 89-90 future considerations for energy system, 104-107

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210 household energy consumption, 92-94, 120-121 housing trends, 146-149 implications for dematerialization, 146-150 social custom as determinant of energy use, 99-102 time allocations, 95 travel behaviors, 95, 99 weight of household possessions, 149 Lighting, electric, 4-5, 84, 125-127 Luddites, 17 M Maglev trains, 5, 128-129 Malthus, Thomas Robert, 35 life and milieu, 34-35, 37, 44, 46 principles of population, 33-34 Materials consumption for construction, 138 for energy system, 75 goals, 7-8 individual lifetime, 139 individuation of commercial products, 149 intensity of use, 139-140 life-cycle analysis, 143 new metals, 141-142 per capita, 139, 142, 143 per unit of economic activity, 139 primary flows, 137-138 product packaging, 151 stocks and flows, 158-159 trends, 7 volume trends, 142 weight of household possessions, 149 See also Resource use Materials substitution, 152 Metals use, 7, 8 Methane, 86 Mexico, 43 N Natural gas INDEX carbon content, 3, 77 estimates of supply, 192-193 future prospects, 85, 86, 121-122 Nature, humanity's relation to, 8, 168-170 Baconian perspective, 174-176 concept of progress and perfectibility in, 177-179 as control and separation, 10-11 future orientation, 174, 179, 182 goals, 11-12,182 habitability requirements, 186 intentionality of nature, 180-182 quality of life goals, 188-189 in Renaissance art and science, 171- 174 unity of order in, 175-176 Western tradition, 168 Negentropy, 159 energy systems for, 163 Nigeria, 78 Nuclear energy decarbonization effects, 83-84 prospects, 85, 122, 193 Nuclear weapons, 11 test ban treaties, 1 o Opposition to technological development, 17 p Paper consumption, 136, 141, 146 Perrault, Charles, 178 Petroleum carbon content, 3, 77 evolution in energy system, 85, 121 oil embargoes of nineteen-seventies, 139, 142 prospects for supply and demand, 192, 193 Philosophy of science anthropocentric, 170 concept of progress, 177 Copernican thought, 170-171, 173

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INDEX descriptive role of science, 175, 176 geocentric, 169-170 Humboldt's contribution, 169-170 Kant's, 182 modern era, 174-176 Plastics, 142-143 Poland, 91, 94 Policy and regulation Bacon's unity of order in nature and society, 175-176 determinants of household energy use, 100-101 effectiveness of, 165, 176 electric utilities, 114 environmental crisis as rationale for, 187-188, 189 human progress and perfectibility as conceptual basis of, 177-179 long-term strategies, 198 optimal waste management state, 164 rationale, 197 recyclability of products, 144 regional planning, 196-197 statistical mechanics for policy selection, 165-166 uncertainty effects, 189 vs. unrestrained market, 197 water consumption, 6 Population growth aging of population, 97-98, 103 agricultural innovation and, 37-40 agricultural needs, 5-6, 52, 56 birth control, 10, 47 capacity to feed ten billion people, 5 6, 59, 61, 67, 70 demographic transition, 39, 44 47, 50 51 disease and, 44 45, 68-69 economic development and, 46-48 effectiveness of control strategies, 48 49 exponential models, 34, 36 family planning programs, 47-48 fertility trends, 10, 48 forecasts, 43, 45-46, 51-52, 79, 189 190 future prospects, 49-52, 197-198 211 household size and energy use, 96-97, 103, 104 individual consumption of resources, 35-36 international planning, 46-47 land use trends, 194-195 Malthusian concept, 33-35 millennial perspective, 40-43 neo-Malthusian models, 35 over course of human evolution, 36-40 technology development and, 10, 37, 39-40 temporal perspectives, 10, 36, 52 trends, 10, 79, 146, 185 water needs, 191-192 world, 1, 45-46, 79 Product design automobile dematerialization, 143-144 life-cycle analysis, 143 measuring environmental impacts, 160-161 waste prevention in, 157-158 Productivity agricultural, 5-6, 56-57, 59-62, 66, 70 energy systems, 74-75 scale of production and, 74 through diffusion of innovation, 74 Q Quality of life, 188-189 R Railroad technology, 17 duration of diffusion, 19-23, 24-25 Raphael, 171 Recreation in natural environment, 11 Recycling automobile design for, 143-144 consumer demand, 145 dematerialization and, 145 isolation of desired material for, 145 limits of, 146 in optimal waste management state, 164

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212 plastics, 143 precious metals recovery, 145 requirements for success, 145 trends, 8, 145-146 waste water, 7, 191 Regulation. See Policy and regulation Renaissance art and science, 170-174, 175, 177 Resource intensity, 92, 139-140 Resource use concept of sustainability, 187-188 demands of population doubling, 52 for dematerialization, 154 differences in individual consumption, 35-36 energy consumption trends, 75 household appliances, 4, 93, 104, 120 household consumption patterns, 92- 94, 120-121 life-cycle analysis, 143 Malthusian models, 35 per capita calorie consumption, 5-6 per capita carbon consumption, 3 productivity increases, 74 See also Dematerialization; Materials consumption; Recycling; specific resource Revenge theory, 7, 135, 136 Road-building, 19-21 S Service industries, energy consumption in, 3, 90-91 Sludge, 151 Smith, Adam, 34 Sociocultural context concepts of human progress and perfectibility, 177-179 demographic transition, 44- 45 determinants of energy use, 96-98, 99-102, 103-105 effects of economic development on population growth, 47~8 environmental decision-making, 197 gender roles, 97, 99 INDEX historical trends in causes of death, 8- 9 housing trends, 146-149 humanity's relation to environment, 8 human quality of life concerns, 188 189 influence of Copernican thought, 170, 173 population control policy, 47 rate of social change, 27 Renaissance era art and science, 170 174 significance of art, 171 of technology diffusion, 17-18, 19, 25, 185 technology in, 16 Western philosophy of nature, 168 Solar/wind energy, 163, 193, 194 Statistical mechanics, 165-166 Steam engine, 112 Steinmetz, Charles Proteus, 115-116 Superfund sites, 161 Sustainability conceptualizations of, 186-187 as goal of regulatory policy, 187-188 human quality of life concerns, 188 189 obstacles to, 197, 198 population size and, 36 prospects, 197-198 rationale, 187 waste management and, 163 Sweden, 100-101 T Telephones, 149-150 Tertullian, 34-35 Titian, 171 Transportation consumption trends, 91, 92-94 for counte:rurbanization, 195-196 duration of technology diffusion, 19- 25 electric vehicles, 127-129

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212 plastics, 143 precious metals recovery, 145 requirements for success, 145 trends, 8, 145-146 waste water, 7, 191 Regulation. See Policy and regulation Renaissance art and science, 170-174, 175, 177 Resource intensity, 92, 139-140 Resource use concept of sustainability, 187-188 demands of population doubling, 52 for dematerialization, 154 differences in individual consumption, 35-36 energy consumption trends, 75 household appliances, 4, 93, 104, 120 household consumption patterns, 92- 94, 120-121 life-cycle analysis, 143 Malthusian models, 35 per capita calorie consumption, 5-6 per capita carbon consumption, 3 productivity increases, 74 See also Dematerialization; Materials consumption; Recycling; specific resource Revenge theory, 7, 135, 136 Road-building, 19-21 S Service industries, energy consumption in, 3, 90-91 Sludge, 151 Smith, Adam, 34 Sociocultural context concepts of human progress and perfectibility, 177-179 demographic transition, 44- 45 determinants of energy use, 96-98, 99-102, 103-105 effects of economic development on population growth, 47~8 environmental decision-making, 197 gender roles, 97, 99 INDEX historical trends in causes of death, 8- 9 housing trends, 146-149 humanity's relation to environment, 8 human quality of life concerns, 188 189 influence of Copernican thought, 170, 173 population control policy, 47 rate of social change, 27 Renaissance era art and science, 170 174 significance of art, 171 of technology diffusion, 17-18, 19, 25, 185 technology in, 16 Western philosophy of nature, 168 Solar/wind energy, 163, 193, 194 Statistical mechanics, 165-166 Steam engine, 112 Steinmetz, Charles Proteus, 115-116 Superfund sites, 161 Sustainability conceptualizations of, 186-187 as goal of regulatory policy, 187-188 human quality of life concerns, 188 189 obstacles to, 197, 198 population size and, 36 prospects, 197-198 rationale, 187 waste management and, 163 Sweden, 100-101 T Telephones, 149-150 Tertullian, 34-35 Titian, 171 Transportation consumption trends, 91, 92-94 for counte:rurbanization, 195-196 duration of technology diffusion, 19- 25 electric vehicles, 127-129

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