A SPACE PHYSICS PARADOX

WHY HAS INCREASED FUNDING BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASED EFFECTIVENESS IN THE CONDUCT OF SPACE PHYSICS RESEARCH?

Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Research

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources and

Committee on Solar and Space Physics

Space Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council


NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1994



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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? A SPACE PHYSICS PARADOX WHY HAS INCREASED FUNDING BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASED EFFECTIVENESS IN THE CONDUCT OF SPACE PHYSICS RESEARCH? Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Research Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources and Committee on Solar and Space Physics Space Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1994

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. ATM 9316824. Copies of this report are available from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Box 285, Washington, DC 20418. Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). International Standard Book Number 0-309-05177-0 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 94-67475 Copyright © 1994 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cover art reproduced from a batik card titled Changes by Susan Wexler Schneider, a nationally recognized batik artist who has been working in this medium for 20 years. Now a Seattle, Washington, resident, Ms. Schneider learned the craft of batik in a southern Ontario town and has had many one-person and group shows. Susan considers batik a “truly magical medium.” It is singularly appropriate to have Susan’s art represented on the cover of this report since she is the daughter of the late Harry Wexler, whose contributions to atmospheric science and to our understanding of solar influences on the atmosphere are well known. Dr. Wexler was instrumental in establishing the geophysical observatory at Mauna Loa and in attracting scientists to study solar radiation and the atmosphere. Printed in the United States of America

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? COMMITTEE ON SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL RESEARCH Current Members MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook, Chair CYNTHIA A. CATTELL, University of California, Berkeley JOHN V. EVANS, COMSAT Laboratories, Clarksburg, Maryland PAUL A. EVENSON, University of Delaware, Newark JOSEPH F. FENNELL, Aerospace Corporation, Los Angeles, California SHADIA R. HABBAL, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts DAVID J. McCOMAS, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico JAMES F. VICKREY, SRI International, Menlo Park, California Past Members Who Contributed to This Report DONALD J. WILLIAMS, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, Maryland, Chair ALAN C. CUMMINGS, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena GORDON EMSLIE, University of Alabama, Huntsville DAVID C. FRITTS, University of Colorado, Boulder ROLANDO R. GARCIA, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles MARCOS MACHADO, University of Alabama, Huntsville EUGENE N. PARKER, University of Chicago, Illinois Liaison Representative JOE H. ALLEN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Staff WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? COMMITTEE ON SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS Current Members MARCIA NEUGEBAUER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, Chair JANET U. KOZYRA, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DONALD G. MITCHELL, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, Maryland JONATHAN F. ORMES, Goddard Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland GEORGE K. PARKS, University of Washington, Seattle DOUGLAS M. RABIN, National Optical Astronomy Observatory, Tucson, Arizona ART RICHMOND, High-Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROGER K. ULRICH, University of California, Los Angeles RONALD D. ZWICKL, Environmental Research Laboratories, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado Past Members Who Contributed to This Report THOMAS E. CRAVENS, University of Kansas, Lawrence DAVID M. RUST, The Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, Maryland RAYMOND J. WALKER, University of California, Los Angeles, California YUK L. YUNG, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California Staff RICHARD C. HART, Senior Program Officer

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE JOHN A. DUTTON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Chair E. ANN BERMAN, International Technology Corporation, Edison, New Jersey CRAIG E. DORMAN, Consultant, Arlington, Virginia MICHAEL FOX-RABINOVITZ, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey ISAAC M. HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI, University of Iowa, Iowa City MARGARET A. LeMONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DOUGLAS K. LILLY, University of Oklahoma, Norman RICHARD S. LINDZEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge GERALD R. NORTH, Texas A&M University, College Station EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park JOANNE SIMPSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland GRAEME L. STEPHENS, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Ex Officio Members ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook PETER V. HOBBS, University of Washington, Seattle Staff WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director MARK HANDEL, Senior Program Officer DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant THERESA M. FISHER, Administrative Assistant ELLEN F. RICE, Editor

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? SPACE STUDIES BOARD LOUIS J. LANZEROTTI, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Chair JOSEPH A. BURNS, Cornell University JOHN A. DUTTON, Pennsylvania State University ANTHONY W. ENGLAND, University of Michigan JAMES P. FERRIS, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute HERBERT FRIEDMAN, Naval Research Laboratory (retired) HAROLD J. GUY, University of California, San Diego NOEL W. HINNERS, Martin Marietta Civil Space and Communications Company ROBERT A. LAUDISE, AT&T Bell Laboratories RICHARD S. LINDZEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN H. McELROY, University of Texas at Arlington WILLIAM J. MERRELL, JR., Texas A&M University NORMAN F. NESS, University of Delaware MARCIA NEUGEBAUER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory SIMON OSTRACH, Case Western Reserve University JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory CARLE M. PIETERS, Brown University JUDITH PIPHER, University of Rochester WILLIAM A. SIRIGNANO, University of California, Irvine JOHN W. TOWNSEND, Goddard Space Flight Center (retired) FRED TUREK, Northwestern University ARTHUR B. C. WALKER, Stanford University Staff MARC S. ALLEN, Director RICHARD C. HART, Deputy Director JOYCE M. PURCELL, Senior Program Officer DAVID H. SMITH, Senior Program Officer BETTY C. GUYOT, Administrative Officer ANNE SIMMONS, Administrative Assistant VICTORIA FRIEDENSEN, Administrative Assistant ALTORIA BELL, Administrative Assistant CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Assistant

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES M. GORDON WOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, Chair PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California W. BARCLAY KAMB, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt/Clemson University, Nashville, Tennessee RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario, Canada THOMAS A. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign STEVEN M. STANLEY, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida WARREN WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Staff STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate ROBIN ALLEN, Senior Project Assistant

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS RICHARD N. ZARE, Stanford University, Chair RICHARD S. NICHOLSON, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Vice Chair STEPHEN L. ADLER, Institute for Advanced Study JOHN A. ARMSTRONG, IBM Corporation (retired) SYLVIA T. CEYER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology AVNER FRIEDMAN, University of Minnesota SUSAN L. GRAHAM, University of California, Berkeley ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation HANS MARK, University of Texas, Austin CLAIRE E. MAX, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California at Berkeley JAMES W. MITCHELL, AT&T Bell Laboratories JEROME SACKS, National Institute of Statistical Sciences A. RICHARD SEEBASS III, University of Colorado CHARLES P. SLICHTER, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign ALVIN W. TRIVELPIECE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Staff NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? Preface Traditionally, the National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) and Space Studies Board (SSB) examine research strategies within their areas of science. In that respect this report is unusual. It looks, instead, at the health of a scientific discipline as it is affected by administrative, managerial, and funding decisions. The study originated from a perception shared by many space scientists that, although overall funding was greater than in previous years, individual researchers seemed to be having greater difficulty in obtaining support for their work. This report is the result of an investigation into that perception and the program structures within which much of U.S. space physics research is conducted. The authors of this report are listed in the preceding committee membership rosters. Their aspirations were to help federal science managers, and those within their own ranks who help make and implement science policy, by analyzing governmental support of space physics research. The conclusions and recommendations from this study are guideposts for identifying and solving significant problems that thwart cost efficiency in the management of one corner of science. However, as the committee members soon discovered, the subject and results of this study apply to many other areas of science as well. This report should be of interest to everyone engaged in research or in the funding and organizing of research. The two authoring committees, the BASC Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Research (CSTR) and the SSB Committee on Solar and Space Physics, meet jointly as a federated committee representing the subdisciplines of solar physics, heliospheric physics, cosmic rays, magnetospheric physics, ionospheric physics,

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? upper-atmospheric physics, aeronomy, and solar-terrestrial physics to provide advice to government agencies. They are concerned with the experimental (both ground-and space-based), theoretical, and data analysis aspects of all these subdisciplines. Development of research and policy guidance is undertaken with one committee taking a lead role, as appropriate. While the CSTR filled the lead role for this report, the results stem from a sustained effort by the entire federated committee. A particular note of appreciation is extended to two people who helped bring this study to its most fruitful conclusion: Morgan Gopnik, who skillfully edited the report and made key recommendations in response to reviewer comments, and Ronald C. Wimberley of North Carolina State University, who contributed insightful suggestions for improving the manuscript. The committees also wish to thank Doris Bouadjemi for her able preparation of the many iterations of the manuscript. John A. Dutton, Chairman Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

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A Space Physics Paradox: Why has Increased Funding Been Accompanied by Decreased Effectiveness in the Conduct of Space Physics Research? Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   7 2   BIG SCIENCE, LITTLE SCIENCE, AND THEIR RELATION TO SPACE PHYSICS   11 3   RESEARCH FUNDING TRENDS   19 4   DEMOGRAPHICS   25 5   BASE PROGRAM FUNDING TRENDS IN SPACE PHYSICS   33 6   TRENDS IN THE CONDUCT OF SPACE PHYSICS   43     Satellite Observations   43     Solar Observations   49     Rocket Observations   56     Balloon Observations   60     Theory   64     Data Analysis   67 7   CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   71     The Reality Behind the Paradox   71     Revisiting the Big Science/Little Science Issue   72     Conclusions   73     Recommendations   76     REFERENCES   81 APPENDIX A   Space Physics Missions (1958-2000)   83 APPENDIX B   The Solar Telescope That Saw No Light   89

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